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Predicting the future
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Smarcus Smokus
Donkey Punch Pioneers
Sticky Green Acres
#1 - 2012-07-24 21:30:06 UTC
I want to take a stab at predicting the future, just three items for now. This is mostly so that when they come true I can reference "See I told you so!!" with a link.

I predict:

1) The impact of the new mining ships is going to be EXTREME. I predict that all the low-ends will drop extremely fast, cause massive drops in the price of durable goods (mostly ships consumed in PVP), and this drop in price will spur greater consumption of said goods and thereby increase the demand on high-end minerals. That Zydrine will be worth something again! Timing for this will be shortly after the winter expansion.

2) Nulli joining Amarr FW will flip the farmers to another faction and minmatier5 will end. The price of minmatar datacores will jump back to 300-350k each and some other militia's datacores will drop (whichever one the farmers join, I'm guessing Amarr).
Timing for this will be in late August.

3) Cheap moon materials will rise in price due to the alchemy changes releasing (relieving) the tech bottleneck. Cheaper T2 goods = more demand for T2 goods = more demand for cheap moon materials. I'm going to go out on a limb say that evap deposits and silcates will be ~1.2k-1.5k by December.

Cheers!
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2012-07-25 02:43:06 UTC
mining effect will be extreme?

the supply of minerals, and miners for that matter, is quite rigid.
One does not simply "create" new miners that will mine more minerals.
Thus i think the effect will exist but will not be "extreme".

My main issue with your prediction is that you consider

Lower price -> more demand.
but you fail you realize
Lower price -> less supply.

Thus it is possible in certain markets to behave oddly.
It's all depending how much if any stocks exist in someone's hangers , and when or if he's willing to dump them on the market chilling the price.

or something, you know.
Abominare
The Hatchery
RAZOR Alliance
#3 - 2012-07-25 04:36:13 UTC
alchemy requires a rather large number of poses moon mining the materials to turn into tech, not to mention all the reaction towers required to do the alchemy. My bet is pos fuel inputs take a nice turn upwards from their current pi crash.
Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#4 - 2012-07-26 00:20:24 UTC
Smarcus Smokus wrote:
I predict that all the low-ends will drop extremely fast, cause massive drops in the price of durable goods


Low ends are currently mainly produced in nullsec under conditions so safe that most null ores are cheaper than ores you find around Jita. They are mined in rorq-boosted Hulk fleets and the changes will have next to no effect.

The mining barge changes will make high sec suicide ganking much much harder as well as giving newbies intermediate ships to mine with that aren't utterly terrible.

It's high ends that will be affected. Ice, pyerite and trit are likely to become cheaper unless there's significant enemy action, such as the Gallente Ice Interdiction we saw last year.

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.