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New dev blog: Tech is fine l2p

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Lucas Quaan
DEMONS OF THE HIDDEN MIST
TRUTH. HONOUR. LIGHT.
#681 - 2012-07-24 16:49:11 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
1)Akita T assumed you'd buy cobalt from the market. This is not the case. You'd mine it, and consider it effectively free.

You are going to have to value it at something. Anyone clever enough to run reactions without losing money knows how to do this and, really, so do you.

Quote:
2)Akita T assumed current prices (as people were madly speculating on them) were accurate. They weren't: platinum was being speculated on (for no good reason) and cobalt was as well (being wildly overinflated).

That is for the market to decide.
Sigras
Conglomo
#682 - 2012-07-24 16:49:30 UTC
lol whats wrong with it? what did you want them to do?

or did you not have a better idea and you just wanted to whine and complain?
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#683 - 2012-07-24 16:51:40 UTC  |  Edited by: EvilweaselSA
Assume platinum of 2,000, and 15,000 fuel blocks (down once isotopes crash). That's a healthy margin on the fuel blocks at pre-hulkageddon isotope prices (blocks have a build cost of under 12k at isotopes = 600).


Floor calculations (this is the lowest tech can go)
Your costs for 1 hour of reactions are:
Old version:
Platinum x5 10,000
Fuelx16: 240,000
Total: 250,000

250,000 = 10 plat technite, plat technite worth 25k at the floor, tech floored at 50k

New version:
Platinum x10 20,000
Fuelx16: 240,000
Total: 260,000

260,000 = 20 plat technite, plat technite worth 13k at the floor, tech floored at 26k.

To get the real price, you add in profit: calculate what you think running a medium tower is worth per month (given how common cobalt is, 100m per tower seems reasonable since you can run many in one system), divide by 720 (hours in a month). That's 138,888 per hour

Your costs for 1 hour of reactions are:
Old version:
Platinum x5 10,000
Fuelx16: 240,000
Profit: 138,888
Total: 388,888. Round to 390,000 for nice numbers

390,000 = 10 plat technite, plat technite worth 39k in reality, tech worth 78k in reality.

New version:
Platinum x10 20,000
Fuelx16: 240,000
Profit: 138,888
Total: 398,888. Round to 400,000

400,000 = 20 plat technite, plat technite worth 20k in reality, tech worth 40k in reality.
Wibla
Tactical Narcotics Team
#684 - 2012-07-24 16:52:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Wibla
Sigras wrote:
you have to count the opportunity cost of the cobalt that you'd be mining from the moon

Assuming that the current prices hold true, and that the POS holders are happy with 100 mil profit a month, the new resting price of PT should be around 39,000 isk/unit.

Yes im factoring in the cost of buying the cobalt because the minerals you mine are not free.


The price of cobalt is at most fuel cost, as it is very abundant. E: And if you do the reaction on on a cobalt moon, its free.

Fuel cost is slated to go way down now that CCP is overtanking mining barges/exhumers.

This will be fun to watch unfold...
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#685 - 2012-07-24 16:53:19 UTC  |  Edited by: EvilweaselSA
Lucas Quaan wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
1)Akita T assumed you'd buy cobalt from the market. This is not the case. You'd mine it, and consider it effectively free.

You are going to have to value it at something. Anyone clever enough to run reactions without losing money knows how to do this and, really, so do you.

No, you don't. Cobalt is worthless. This is a case where things you mine yourself are, quite literally, free: you swap a silo for a moon harvester and the input cost drops to zero. The market for cobalt is idiots selling to idiots: it's not a real market and will have no effect on tech prices.
Zhentar
SUNDERING
Goonswarm Federation
#686 - 2012-07-24 16:56:45 UTC
Lucas Quaan wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
1)Akita T assumed you'd buy cobalt from the market. This is not the case. You'd mine it, and consider it effectively free.

You are going to have to value it at something. Anyone clever enough to run reactions without losing money knows how to do this and, really, so do you.


The cost of the cobalt that you are mining is what you pay in fuel. You do not pay for the fuel for the tower AND the cobalt - if so, you are counting that twice.

Opportunity cost doesn't really come into play here, as cobalt supply is effectively infinite, there being hundreds more moons than needed.

Quote:

Quote:
2)Akita T assumed current prices (as people were madly speculating on them) were accurate. They weren't: platinum was being speculated on (for no good reason) and cobalt was as well (being wildly overinflated).

That is for the market to decide.


Precisely. Using speculative numbers to determine market-shifting changes is just a bad idea, since the changes won't have the impact you would estimate once prices return to normal.
Lucas Quaan
DEMONS OF THE HIDDEN MIST
TRUTH. HONOUR. LIGHT.
#687 - 2012-07-24 16:58:33 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
The market for cobalt is idiots selling to idiots: it's not a real market and should have no effect on tech prices.

This is what you really are saying, but since the market is there we cannot discount it entirely.
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#688 - 2012-07-24 16:59:47 UTC
Lucas Quaan wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
The market for cobalt is idiots selling to idiots: it's not a real market and should have no effect on tech prices.

This is what you really are saying, but since the market is there we cannot discount it entirely.

No, it will not have any effect on tech prices. I don't think you understand just how much cobalt there is. The market will be dominated by the people who correctly value the cobalt as worthless, and the market of idiots selling to idiots will not affect the actual market price of plat tech.
Ohh Yeah
Jerkasaurus Wrecks Inc.
Sedition.
#689 - 2012-07-24 17:19:53 UTC
So what spikes in price? What am I supposed to buy right now?
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#690 - 2012-07-24 17:29:56 UTC
Buy all the things.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#691 - 2012-07-24 17:53:28 UTC
Ohh Yeah wrote:
So what spikes in price? What am I supposed to buy right now?

OTEC brand unalchemized technetium.
Benny Ohu
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#692 - 2012-07-24 18:01:33 UTC
Chimney prices are going through the roof, and helium is always rising. There's good margins to be had on rulers. There are often spikes in soccer boots and of course pancake mix always has excellent turnover.
Wibla
Tactical Narcotics Team
#693 - 2012-07-24 18:05:16 UTC
Ohh Yeah wrote:
So what spikes in price? What am I supposed to buy right now?


If you have balls of steel, I'm sure you can have some fun in the technetium market Pirate
Dramaticus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#694 - 2012-07-24 18:14:43 UTC
When do we start discussing the complete T2 overhaul? You know, the only way to fix this that doesn't result in all moon minerals being worth fuel cost.

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them

Wibla
Tactical Narcotics Team
#695 - 2012-07-24 18:22:21 UTC
Dramaticus wrote:
When do we start discussing the complete T2 overhaul? You know, the only way to fix this that doesn't result in all moon minerals being worth fuel cost.


About 3 months too late to make a difference, seeing as EVE just got a lot more boring.

Removing the main conflict driver in 0.0 and effectively neutering suicide ganking of miners in highsec.

Adding insult to injury, the people who really benefit from the barge/exhumer changes are botters... Roll
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#696 - 2012-07-24 18:24:37 UTC
yeah the mining barge buffs are basically legalizing empire mining bots again
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#697 - 2012-07-24 18:28:12 UTC
At least all POS fuel'll be cheap as chips when everyone dogpile into botting up a metric fucktonne of the topes, which means T2 ships'll cost less, which means that monetary inflation end up making losses hurt even less now than before.

It'll be awesome.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Nikolai Dostoyevski
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#698 - 2012-07-24 19:08:46 UTC
Wibla wrote:
Dramaticus wrote:
When do we start discussing the complete T2 overhaul? You know, the only way to fix this that doesn't result in all moon minerals being worth fuel cost.


About 3 months too late to make a difference, seeing as EVE just got a lot more boring.

Removing the main conflict driver in 0.0 and effectively neutering suicide ganking of miners in highsec.

Adding insult to injury, the people who really benefit from the barge/exhumer changes are botters... Roll


Neutering Ganking suicide miners = lot more boring? What is more boring than an easy gank against an undefended and untanked hulk? I guess if griefing is what you enjoy that it might become less boring for you.. But I'd much rather engage in real PVP than suicide ganking. Having somebody shoot back is far more fun. Unless you're afraid of opposition.

I like the mining barge changes. Will bring mineral prices down. Which will mean cheaper ships. Which means I can die more often with the same amount of income that I have now.

But no, I do not like bots, and dearly hope CCP finds better ways to identify and destroy botters.
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#699 - 2012-07-24 19:09:19 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
Lucas Quaan wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
1)Akita T assumed you'd buy cobalt from the market. This is not the case. You'd mine it, and consider it effectively free.

You are going to have to value it at something. Anyone clever enough to run reactions without losing money knows how to do this and, really, so do you.

No, you don't. Cobalt is worthless. This is a case where things you mine yourself are, quite literally, free: you swap a silo for a moon harvester and the input cost drops to zero. The market for cobalt is idiots selling to idiots: it's not a real market and will have no effect on tech prices.


The moon minerals always have a value, even if their net extraction cost is negative, some people do not have cotrol of all the moons necessary under the iron fist of a dictator to get to the end product, so they must value their product somehow to see if it is worth it. The initial calculations seem to indicate cobalt might be worth it to extract and sell, but it is going to be constantly threatened by oversupply because there is so much excess supply potentially availble.

If the market behaves the as expected tech goes down and everything else goes up (more supply of PT -> lower prices of PT -> lower prices of intermediate goods -> lower prices of finished goods -> more finished goods units demanded -> more other moon minerals (OMM) demanded -> higher OMM price more OMM units supplied.

Since every other MM supposedly has massive slack I would not expect tech to lose the bottleneck position especially since it is going to have a wierd supply curve depandant on the relative profitability of cobalt alchemy, to high a price and new supply appears, to low and that supply disappears, but since many people Minerals I mine are free the natural order will not establish right away.
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#700 - 2012-07-24 19:20:54 UTC
Airto TLA wrote:

The moon minerals always have a value, even if their net extraction cost is negative, some people do not have cotrol of all the moons necessary under the iron fist of a dictator to get to the end product,

Doesn't matter. There's so much cobalt that the alchemy profit will be set by the people doing it with free cobalt.