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Any long term market predictions?
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Whang'Lo
Cosmically Irrelevant
#1 - 2012-07-03 11:35:39 UTC
Let's say someone gave you 1 billion ISK and you had to invest it in the market for 6 months
before you could touch it. What would you invest it in? Idea

[u]A Paranoid is just someone with all the facts - William Burroughs[/u]
Keaton DuCasse
The Destiny Logistics.
#2 - 2012-07-03 12:18:45 UTC
Whang'Lo wrote:
Let's say someone gave you 1 billion ISK and you had to invest it in the market for 6 months
before you could touch it. What would you invest it in? Idea


PLEX
JohnathanGalt
Northern Sky Industries
#3 - 2012-07-03 15:01:55 UTC
I would agree with PLEX. I have read and heard through many sources, that PLEX tend to be cheaper in the summer months, and then slowly build value heading into the fall/winter. Maybe mining barges as well due to the coming changes, but it would be a gamble, and the changes might already be factored in the market.
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#4 - 2012-07-03 15:51:59 UTC
...I actually don't know anymore. I'm so disconnected from what's going on and have gotten so used to my one little corner of the market...I need some analysts working for me.

Plex is still pretty historically high. I'd consider buying in at <450, but the current 5% drop from a historical peak seems insignificant to me and not something worth betting on.

I'd do a bit of reading on the drone poo nerf to see what the long term winners should be, as six months sounds about when we should start to see the long term impact of the mineral squeeze.

Also, 1b rofl upoor bro.
Rer Eirikr
The Scope
#5 - 2012-07-03 15:59:15 UTC
Whang'Lo wrote:
Let's say someone gave you 1 billion ISK and you had to invest it in the market for 6 months
before you could touch it. What would you invest it in? Idea


I'd say that's a pretty ****** deal because I could turn that 1 bil into 2, if not more, just through station trading in few months.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#6 - 2012-07-03 19:12:09 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
The economy is pretty borked right now TBH.
I doubt even PLEX is a good bet. I think the money supply is effectively shrinking when summer unsubs are included into the mix
Only thing I'd bet on is mineral shortages due to the drone poo NERF but without any solid numbers ( CCP Diagoras hasn't posted stats for a month now) you got ALOT of uncertainty.
Mining volumes appears to have dropped with a perma Hulkageddon ( even though gun
mining is no more ). Since ring mining is delayed I'd expect once the mineral hoards are depleted that is where the ISKs will be made but that may be months away.
Nobody really knows what is going to happen with how Dust is going to mix with the economy.
Looks like we're entering a period of deflaion for everything EXCEPT ship prices IMHO.
I think T2 is holding steady through an act of will and could collapse if the Delve wars go bad for CFC
For the next 2 months I'd suggest keeping liquidity

IMHO the only thing that'll help the economy now is a quick release of the new mining ships along with an improved trainning time. Since the DEV blogs gave alot cussion until they are implemented (right on or before winter expansion) all I see is uncertainty
(UNCERTAINTY: the bane of markets)
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
clamslayer
Doomheim
#7 - 2012-07-03 20:51:17 UTC  |  Edited by: clamslayer
Prices on most items have already peaked and will continue to steadily decline.

As far as what to invest into? there are a number of items that you can make isk on, but those that know wont tell =)


Edit: Also, there are two things coming up, that will have a significant impact on the market, but i have no ******* idea what that impact will be.
Simi Kusoni
HelloKittyFanclub
#8 - 2012-07-03 21:59:11 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
The economy is pretty borked right now TBH.
I doubt even PLEX is a good bet. I think the money supply is effectively shrinking when summer unsubs are included into the mix
Only thing I'd bet on is mineral shortages due to the drone poo NERF but without any solid numbers ( CCP Diagoras hasn't posted stats for a month now) you got ALOT of uncertainty.
Mining volumes appears to have dropped with a perma Hulkageddon ( even though gun
mining is no more ). Since ring mining is delayed I'd expect once the mineral hoards are depleted that is where the ISKs will be made but that may be months away.
Nobody really knows what is going to happen with how Dust is going to mix with the economy.
Looks like we're entering a period of deflaion for everything EXCEPT ship prices IMHO.
I think T2 is holding steady through an act of will and could collapse if the Delve wars go bad for CFC
For the next 2 months I'd suggest keeping liquidity

IMHO the only thing that'll help the economy now is a quick release of the new mining ships along with an improved trainning time. Since the DEV blogs gave alot cussion until they are implemented (right on or before winter expansion) all I see is uncertainty
(UNCERTAINTY: the bane of markets)

In computer games a "good" economy is not necessarily a stable one, nor is it one where everything is cheap or affordable. Whilst at times underlying mechanics and principles may be the same, the goal is different.

For example in Eve, meaningful losses and a larger disparity between economic classes is good. Obviously not so much in real life.

Also, depending on how it is implemented ring mining may make high ends more expensive. Not less expensive. In fact my money would be on high ends increasing in price even more come ring mining's introduction.

[center]"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings"  -MXZF[/center]
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#9 - 2012-07-04 06:52:47 UTC
Simi Kusoni wrote:


Also, depending on how it is implemented ring mining may make high ends more expensive. Not less expensive. In fact my money would be on high ends increasing in price even more come ring mining's introduction.


So you predict hi ends will increase after ring mining is implementd, fair enough. Npw that ring mining has been officially pushed back to Soon(TM) wanna make a shorter term prediction? Big smile
Summer typically in Eve has been a deflationary period ( even last year the economy deflated during the summer months )
I've taken a stab at it & predict holding ISK over the next 2 months is your best bet.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Hemmo Paskiainen
#10 - 2012-07-04 23:40:55 UTC
morphite, guidance systems, thullium, combat boosters, faction nosses dread gurista smartbombs

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?
Samroski
Middle-Earth
#11 - 2012-07-05 04:10:14 UTC
PLEX is the worst thing to block up just 1b with. If you had a 100b then plex may be worth it, as even a minor change in price may give you significant profits.

Any colour you like.
SegaPhoenix
Chicks on Speed
Weapons Of Mass Production.
#12 - 2012-07-05 14:47:30 UTC  |  Edited by: SegaPhoenix
Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:
morphite, guidance systems, thullium, combat boosters, faction nosses dread gurista smartbombs



Thulium is an interesting one. As the most worthless of al lthe r64's why would this increase in value? They're not rebalancing the moons they're just adding another way to obtain it. Thulium is terrible now and it will be terrible unless t2 production is drastically changed to increase the need for thulium.
Eddie Laydon
Laydon Industries
#13 - 2012-07-05 16:42:27 UTC
Whang'Lo wrote:
Let's say someone gave you 1 billion ISK and you had to invest it in the market for 6 months
before you could touch it. What would you invest it in? Idea


underpants.