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Market Discussions

 
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Attempting to understand how to play the market.

Author
Private Pineapple
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2012-06-06 11:35:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Private Pineapple
Hey all.

So I found this nifty little item where the sell orders are two times of the highest buy order value. I assume those items are pretty much how people make money via trading these days? You put up a buy order and once it's bought, sell it for a higher amount of ISK?

I wasn't really sure if the whole 'buy low, sell high' concept worked in EVE without some serious hauling because most items in JITA have a 1% to 15% price difference between their sell orders and buy orders (this is mostly made up since I didn't do the math, but it is true to some extent on many popular modules, especially frigate t1 modules) so it seems pointless to try and put up a buy order on these because the market for that item is highly active (and thus competitive) so if you try to undercut to ruin your margins you'd lose a ton of money while not making that much profit compared to your competitors.

I feel like I'm missing something. I do want to get into trading but it seems a bit "hard" to do it. Am I simply supposed to have patience?

The reason why it seems "hard" is because of the following two scenarios:

1) If it's a slow market, the sell orders will be far away than that of buy orders in price difference
2) If it's a fast market, the sell orders will be very close to the buy orders in price difference

If you haven't guessed yet, the item I found recently is in a slow market, and I have no idea if people are going to constantly undercut me. I put up a lot of units yesterday and in 6 hours nothing sold but I did get undercutted by like 15k ISK per unit (losing around 20% profit or so compared to buy orders). I undercutted him again but I fear that between this random undercutter and I we'll just keep undercutting each other to bottom level prices.

.

Tom Hagen
Twilight Empire
#2 - 2012-06-06 12:43:38 UTC
1% profit on ten billion each week is an ok ROI if the alternative is to have them idle in your wallet.
If you don't have that much ISK I would look into trading goods with a slower turn around, less competition, and higher margin, the trick is to diversify and don't put all of your eggs in one basket.
Jita is a very competitive place, so also if you are new to trading maybe look for other markets were you can buy modules in Jita and transport them to. Alternative use Red frog.
In some cases you can also find items to take the other way.

Also look at the graphs in the market, if the median are close to the buy order price they don't sell very well and the traffic you see is people only buying it.

Eve market is pretty mature at this time, so you are competing with people that have huge sums of ISK, that don't mind a low % profit just to keep the ISK they all ready have to work for them. With that lower profit margin they effectively shut out people like you and keeping a bigger part of the market for themselves.

Another tip is looking for Mission hubs or factional warfare hubs. Usually the demand for ammo and drones and some modules such as armor repairer can be high and you can make a decent profit if the market isn't already saturated.
If you still want to station trade prepare to be very active, I would look into T2 modules I think first and remember to work with several active orders on the same item in order to circumvent the 5 minute timer.

Just a word of warning, it was a while ago I was that active in trading. So do your own research, and just use these advice as guidelines.
It is so much more to it put I don't have that much time atm, but maybe it is somewhere to start for you.

have a nice day
Marjolaine Soucie
Grott Shipyards
#3 - 2012-06-06 12:55:43 UTC
Yes, it can be a daunting task to say the least but it seems you are on the right track. My suggestion to start in the market trading game is to don't just jump right in, do some research. And then when you feel like you have done the research and are ready, do some more research. Look at some of the tools out there such as Nexus, Mentat and eve-central. Check out some trade blogs to see what others are doing. Then to get a feel for the market, do the new player tutorials (there are 3 tutorials for each faction for a total of 12 sets of tutorials). Now the reason you want to do the new player tutorials repeatedly, after you have done at least 1 set, is to acquire the free ships and skillbooks through the tutorials. Use these free items as your seed entry into the market game. All of the free ships and skillbooks sell quite well. Be sure to train up your trade skills asap to reduce taxes thereby increasing profits. Train up your social skills to gain faction standing with the hub you will trade in thereby reducing taxes further. Look to join a player corp like eve uni to get more insight into trading. Station trading in places like Jita will require a good amount of research into what is moving, how quickly and profit margin. Hub trading is the same but a little less risk in that you can buy something in a mission hub, move it to Jita and have a greater profit margin. In any case, a lot of the profit you get comes from the time you spend researching. Hope this helps. Good luck and keep at it.
Andy DelGardo
#4 - 2012-06-06 13:05:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Andy DelGardo
My tip is to simply try it out, no-one forces u to buy large volumes at the beginning.
Set yourself a limit of like 50-100mill and simply "play" as if u actually would put 1b into. U can than simply see what items have a high competition and which don't, since the queue system is used it wont matter if u try sell/buy 10 or 100 items, but u get a feeling for the competition. The only things that wont work the same is that the competition may react differently if they are undercut with a 10 stack vs a 1000 stack, but most will play the 0.1 isk game anyway, since those 10x stack may be reappear every 5 minutes :p

So the idea is to "play" the game but with no risk involved and get a feeling for it for some days/week. Than if u feel comfortable, simply scale up until u run out of money.
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2012-06-06 13:19:10 UTC
Your "problem" is a common one and isn't a problem at all.

"Fast" moving items have small margins, and "slow' moving items have relatively large margins.
(in general)

However, the definitions of "small" and "large" margins are yours to make.
For a starting trader, you tend to go for the awesome 100% margins, the more isk you have, the less margins you can get.

it's very rare to be able to trade for billions and billions with a sustained 100% margin.

That being said, margins aren't everything. i can buy a meta 4 item for 4,500 and sell it for 450,000. 10,000% margin. However i won't be selling alot of those, i'll be very happy to sell one a day.

If i buy a hulk once a week for 240M and sell it for 270M, the 'small' 12% margin gives me more isk than the previous meta 4 trade.
So what's best? In general this problem is solved by identifying the two projects and their time-lines.
bear with me here.

if something costs 4000 and can be sold for 8000 - that's nice.(project A)
for simplicity we'll assume both projects have the same time-frame. a whole month.
let's say we have another item costs 40,000 and you sell it for 70,000.(project B)

If you can run multiple projects, (isk wise, orders wise etc.), you'll notice that if you run *enough* instances of project A, it's better to invest in the smaller item and get a higher absolute value.

The problem is you cannot run multiple projects due to market behaviour, you cannot sell and buy as many as you want.
We try to solve these problems by *assuming* we can, and then using the constraints.
Ideally you want to get both projects into the same basic format

X amount for Y time nets Z(either absolute values or margins, doesn't matter)>

The question you need to ask yourself is this:

If by investing the same amount of isk for the same amount of time you can achieve greater results in a single project, that project is better.


Anya Ohaya
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#6 - 2012-06-07 23:54:37 UTC
Not all items have buy and sell orders that are realistic. Sometimes sell orders don't sell: everyone is buying with buy orders. Sometimes it's the reverse, and buy orders just sit there.
Heimdallofasgard
Ministry of Furious Retribution
Insidious.
#7 - 2012-06-08 00:55:40 UTC
Like Johnny Frecko up there I like to run small projects (low volume, high price) but alongside high volume, low price projects, just to keep things active.

I put an order up for 100,000 pieces of salvage within 3 jumps of a trade hub, it's been 15 days since I put it up there and it's not even 15% complete yet, but it's nice to know I'm building up a stockpile for something I'm pretty sure is heading for a bubble.
Peri Simone
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2012-06-08 02:38:43 UTC
Private Pineapple wrote:
I put up a lot of units yesterday and in 6 hours nothing sold but I did get undercutted by like 15k ISK per unit (losing around 20% profit or so compared to buy orders). I undercutted him again but I fear that between this random undercutter and I we'll just keep undercutting each other to bottom level prices.


If your competitor goes very low and doesn't have a huge number of items, it may be worth buying up his stock rather than undercutting further. But this might be what he wants you to do. Gulp!

Regarding patience, it's easier with a wider spread of items. If you're selling 50 or a hundred different modules (or thousands I guess, for a lot of these serious MD guys) it becomes less of a problem if one item isn't shifting units - you can afford to wait, or just drop prices and suck up the loss in a worst case scenario.
MunnyRabbit
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2012-06-18 02:49:10 UTC
literally just started trading about 3 or 4 days ago and i have learned a great deal in the past couple of days. I don't know if this has been said or not but Watch market trends at major trade hubs. You may be able to buy a ship for $50,000,000 on a tuesday and resell it for $55,000,000 due to the amount of trading and margins getting smaller. You wont even have to place a sell order just sell to the best buyer =).

Of course you never know what the market will do at least not 100%
Marsan
#10 - 2012-06-18 05:49:15 UTC
The other thing to remember is location, location, location. It's not uncommon to find items in Jita that sell for 5-10% more in Dodixie (or the reverse). Looted modules, and salvage sell cheaply in mission hubs while ammo and repair modules/paste are higher. Systems on the edge of LS or NS have greater demand for ammo, pvp modules and ships. Also you'll find ammo, and weapon prices vary from region to region due to race.

The other to watch is dev blogs. For example I haven't checked but I assume the various non hulk mining ships are rising in price and hulks are taking a hit. (Or they will be once people realize that they are suddenly going to become more valuable.)

Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a grumpy small portion of the community.

Rudy Eirikr
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2012-06-18 16:59:27 UTC
Try starting out in well known, but not crazy competitive, markets like Dodixie. The trading tends to be fast enough that you can make some cash, but not so crazy that you need to check your orders every 5 minutes. The markets in these hubs also tend to remain relatively stable, assuming there are no big upcoming changes.

Logging on Sisi to check "what's going to happen" and reading DevBlogs can give you an enourmous advantage over your competition. For example, I bought up all of the cheap datacores of a certain type in Amarr and Jita before the FW change hit and resold them for twice the price I bought in. Even so, I'm a huge market nub in comparison to most of the serious M&D people here. Its all about doing your homework and acting upon it before someone else.
Private Pineapple
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#12 - 2012-07-06 11:53:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Private Pineapple
Just an update, I've confirmed that station trading is massively about the marketing rule of thumb: buy low, sell high. I've been making some profits on some expensive items that have a price difference in between buy/sell orders. Nothing remotely impressive at all (we're talking 10-20mil profit per day from investing 400 mil into the buy orders). If I got Trading or something that gives me more buy orders I could make more profit with more investment - I think I might just do that soon.

All in all, I am getting a good handle on how things work when it comes to playing the market.

.

Teavan
First CityWide Change Bank
#13 - 2012-07-06 15:11:06 UTC
Private Pineapple wrote:
JNothing remotely impressive at all (we're talking 10-20mil profit per day from investing 400 mil into the buy orders)..


10-20M per day is your PLEX each month.
Kailean
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#14 - 2012-07-06 15:47:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Kailean
Marsan wrote:
The other to watch is dev blogs. For example I haven't checked but I assume the various non hulk mining ships are rising in price and hulks are taking a hit. (Or they will be once people realize that they are suddenly going to become more valuable.)


When the devblog hit someone bought all the covetors in all the regions surrounding The Forge (as well as in The Forge), immediately bumping the price from 4.2M (or so) to whatever the market could sustain; it stayed at 9M until people realized that hell, that's a nice margin for a t1 ship you can produce yourself. It's now down to around 4.7M again (which makes sense giving the rising mineral prices -- I've not done the math but it could probably fall a bit more before finding a new stable price). While this is just anecdotal evidence it supports the notion of reading dev blogs to gain an upper hand at the market.


Private Pineapple wrote:
Just an update, I've confirmed that station trading is massively about the marketing rule of thumb: buy low, sell high. I've been making some profits on some expensive items that have a price difference in between buy/sell orders. Nothing remotely impressive at all (we're talking 10-20mil profit per day from investing 400 mil into the buy orders). If I got Trading or something that gives me more buy orders I could make more profit with more investment - I think I might just do that soon.

All in all, I am getting a good handle on how things work when it comes to playing the market.


I wouldn't call flipping orders playing the market. You should probably look at some cheaper but faster moving items too; expensive items might give you a huge profit but if they don't move fast enough the money invested might be better spent elsewhere. For instance, ammo always (or almost always) moves a lot quicker on the weekends than in the middle of the week, and the price difference between buying mid-week and selling on weekends can be quite a nice bit of profit indeed. T1 ammo is required for all faction ammo as well, so you could look at what faction ammo is moving a lot and supply the T1 ammo necessary; chances are it'll be moving similar numbers (or higher, given that people use regular T1 ammo as well).

I personally like to have both fast movers and slow movers. 55M profit on a really slow buy order? Sure, but I'm not going to invest all my capital in it because if it only sells 1 unit every week that's just 220M per month, and that's if I'm not undercut. A good rule of thumb I picked up years ago was to look at orders fulfilled times average price and if it's below 1b not invest in it (or invest but not too much). You don't want your capital to be tied up in orders that aren't getting filled/sold.

Constantly updating your orders is also something that I don't recommend; look at the daily volume and see if the orders undercutting you are enough to fill it or not. If they're not, just leave your order and watch it sell sooner or later.

Or something.
Private Pineapple
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#15 - 2012-07-06 15:51:56 UTC
Kailean wrote:
Marsan wrote:
The other to watch is dev blogs. For example I haven't checked but I assume the various non hulk mining ships are rising in price and hulks are taking a hit. (Or they will be once people realize that they are suddenly going to become more valuable.)


When the devblog hit someone bought all the covetors in all the regions surrounding The Forge (as well as in The Forge), immediately bumping the price from 4.2M (or so) to whatever the market could sustain; it stayed at 9M until people realized that hell, that's a nice margin for a t1 ship you can produce yourself. It's now down to around 4.7M again (which makes sense giving the rising mineral prices -- I've not done the math but it could probably fall a bit more before finding a new stable price). While this is just anecdotal evidence it supports the notion of reading dev blogs to gain an upper hand at the market.


It's pretty much the same concept as reading a news article about some company and making a decision on buying or selling stock in that company.

.