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Equilibrium Mineral Prices

Author
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#21 - 2012-05-01 14:11:05 UTC
Chingyz wrote:
Wyke Mossari wrote:
I'm not sure the demand site is that difficult, if instead of looking at finished goods we look at the Mineral market its self.

Annual mineral volume for Jita with various ratio. (Extracted from the market history using the new cut & paste feature.)

Tritanium: 267.21, Pyerite: 53.92, Mexallon: 15.41, Isogen: 3.63, Nocxium: 1


* The figures are for Jita for 364 days starting the day before yesterday, since volume for today is incomplete and for yesterday is often zero.

** I had to look it up, 10^15 or 1,000 Trillion is a Quadrillion, so that 10Quadrillion of Tritanium traded in the last year.


Actually that doesn't show true demand. Part of those figures are due to speculators trading minerals for short or long term investments. You can't even use finished goods from the market as some people buy up goods for reprocessing, thus reentering the minerals to the market.

Demand is affected in the same way with both speculators and reprocessing having an effect, however the chase for most valuable ore will, to some degree, show equilibrium (with some lag).

All this, however is based on a prerequisite of stability.


What is True demand ?

If we assume that Jita represents the most efficient market in new Eden then the market volume is best estimate we have.
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#22 - 2012-05-01 14:15:00 UTC
True demand is the consumption of the minerals. assuming that minerals will have a future higher mark increases that demand, but when that higher mark is reached it also increases the supply by the exact same numbers.

CCP does have the numbers on how many units of tritanium are consumed every month, now THAT would be intresting to see.
(they also have the figures on how many tritanium unist are being produced).

All in all, pretty intresting information to gaze at.
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#23 - 2012-05-01 14:26:50 UTC

That was actually a rhetorical question. I understand the implication is for consumption in manufacturing. However I was trying to make the point that the true demand, for market valuation purposes is the entire demand, speculation included.

Chingyz
Perkone
Caldari State
#24 - 2012-05-01 17:43:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Chingyz
Wyke Mossari wrote:

That was actually a rhetorical question. I understand the implication is for consumption in manufacturing. However I was trying to make the point that the true demand, for market valuation purposes is the entire demand, speculation included.



I know that you can regard equilibrium that way, but then please tell me what happens when demand is greater than consumption.
Claire Voyant
#25 - 2012-05-01 22:00:37 UTC
Johnny Frecko wrote:
CCP does have the numbers on how many units of tritanium are consumed every month, now THAT would be intresting to see.
(they also have the figures on how many tritanium unist are being produced).

All in all, pretty intresting information to gaze at.

Probably not all that informative. The problem is inventories, and not just raw minerals but everything that contains them. Every time you leave a ship in your hangar unused you are stockpiling minerals. Same with leaving loot in your hangar. Or market goods waiting to be sold. And what about inactive accounts?

The problem with measuring true supply and demand in Eve is that the carrying cost of inventory is basically zero. No storage costs and the "safe" return on isk is pretty much zilch. Therefore, unless you felt the price was going to fall or you wanted to raise cash there is no real incentive to clean out you hangars. So there is simply no way of telling if those looming inventories are going to depress prices or not.

If I need a dominix to run missions I could look in my assets and see if I had one handy somewhere or just run to the nearest market hub and pick up another one. When prices are this high I could decide I can't afford to buy another or that I didn't want to risk the price collapsing and taking a loss. Obviously, these are individual decisions and there is not much data to go on to decide how Eve players will behave. First, the vast majority of players have never seen prices this high and second, prices have never risen this much, in fact they have usually declined over time.

I have argued that you could easily interpret that the replacement of meta 0 loot with metal scraps is CCP's way to get a handle on how much of the stuff sitting around in hangars is unprocessed loot. The fact is they have tons of data but they have their own internal arguments about what the data means. Look at the dev blog about the money supply. It's actually an analogous situation. Just because people have more isk in their wallets doesn't mean that all that isk is weighing on the economy.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#26 - 2012-06-13 02:14:28 UTC


Off all the minerals, Isogen seems to be way off equilibrium price. This suggests that there must be a source of cheap Isogen (Recyclable or loot) OR miners are fooled by omber's high price.

"Omber sells for 112 while veldspar sells for 19, so lets mine omber"

What do you think?


corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#27 - 2012-06-13 02:26:24 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
Block Ukx wrote:

What do you think?

That you just bought a large stack of Isogen and are trying to use your reputation as a knowledgeable mineral baron to get other people to buy.

Oh and by the way...

Wyke Mossari wrote:
What is True demand ?

If we assume that Jita represents the most efficient market in new Eden then the market volume is best estimate we have.


This is old, but Jita is a very low indicator of true demand. Big smile

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#28 - 2012-06-13 02:38:55 UTC
corestwo wrote:

That you just bought a large stack of Isogen and are trying to use your reputation as a knowledgeable mineral baron to get other people to buy.



Fair point. However, I wouldn't recommend people to stock pile at 80. If it hits 60, I say stock pile.

Veldspar and scordite yiled about 185 ISK/m3, while omber yields 93 ISK/m3. Don't you find it odd that people still mine omber when they could more than double their income mining veldspar?


corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#29 - 2012-06-13 02:46:49 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
corestwo wrote:

That you just bought a large stack of Isogen and are trying to use your reputation as a knowledgeable mineral baron to get other people to buy.



Fair point. However, I wouldn't recommend people to stock pile at 80. If it hits 60, I say stock pile.

Veldspar and scordite yiled about 185 ISK/m3, while omber yields 93 ISK/m3. Don't you find it odd that people still mine omber when they could more than double their income mining veldspar?



No, because there are plenty of people in this game who are highly uninformed. Such people always guarantee at least some supply of a given mineral. However, these people cannot come close to supplying Isogen, so ultimately I agree with you - its due to spike, once stockpiles are exhausted.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#30 - 2012-06-13 08:31:10 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
corestwo wrote:

That you just bought a large stack of Isogen and are trying to use your reputation as a knowledgeable mineral baron to get other people to buy.



Fair point. However, I wouldn't recommend people to stock pile at 80. If it hits 60, I say stock pile.

Veldspar and scordite yiled about 185 ISK/m3, while omber yields 93 ISK/m3. Don't you find it odd that people still mine omber when they could more than double their income mining veldspar?




If you are in a large mining op, you strip belts clean so fast that you don't even notice a tiny omber roid before it's digged.
Basically it's more bothersome to selectively avoid these things than just feeding them in the meatgrinder.
papamike
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#31 - 2012-06-14 08:21:24 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:
corestwo wrote:

That you just bought a large stack of Isogen and are trying to use your reputation as a knowledgeable mineral baron to get other people to buy.



Fair point. However, I wouldn't recommend people to stock pile at 80. If it hits 60, I say stock pile.

Veldspar and scordite yiled about 185 ISK/m3, while omber yields 93 ISK/m3. Don't you find it odd that people still mine omber when they could more than double their income mining veldspar?




If you are in a large mining op, you strip belts clean so fast that you don't even notice a tiny omber roid before it's digged.
Basically it's more bothersome to selectively avoid these things than just feeding them in the meatgrinder.


I would say this would depend on the availability of other belts/ roids/ grav sites in the system.

Ive got somewhat limited experience mining but how hard is it to move belts.

Right click, warp to belt 2.

Done.

Grav sites might be another matter entirely perhaps but I dont think that would account for hi-sec supply. Id say its one of three possible causes

a) Huge stockpiles of Iso are around from meta 0 reprocessing. These are being slowly bled off along with high level long term speculation.

or

b) There is an npc source of Iso to account for its prevalence.

or

c) High sec miners are honestly that stupid that they COLLECTIVELY have never bothered to look at any of the refining data available, or have spoken to one another about the lack of profitability in Omber, or are convinced that it is quicker/better to mine all roids in a belt rather then cherry pick.


I really doubt its c) tbh. In saying that though I have met miners who insist on mining all roids in a belt. I think there is something of a feeling of accomplishment to leave a belt completely stripped.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#32 - 2012-06-14 10:10:40 UTC
Knowing a few miners, They'll just strip a belt clean, rather than cherry picking and moving on. Or in grav sites, cleaning them out so they respawn elsewhere. rather than letting them sit with just the omber holding them there.


Then there are the newbies who think in terms of how much they get per unit, rather than per m3.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#33 - 2012-06-14 10:30:25 UTC
papamike wrote:


Ive got somewhat limited experience mining but how hard is it to move belts.

Right click, warp to belt 2.

Done.


No


Steve Ronuken wrote:
Knowing a few miners, They'll just strip a belt clean, rather than cherry picking and moving on. Or in grav sites, cleaning them out so they respawn elsewhere. rather than letting them sit with just the omber holding them there.


Yes
Caldari Citizen20110707
Doomheim
#34 - 2012-06-16 23:54:06 UTC
you dont get suicide that easely in scannable high sec exploration sites where there is lot and lots of omber...
Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
#35 - 2012-06-17 10:51:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Jdestars
Not you made not bad for the head etablissant formulae in the walnut but use the baseprices which are in the DB

and you can easly etablish the ratio of any mineral


Name Base npc
Tritanium 1,50
Pyerite 4,00
Mexallon 15,00
Isogen 64,00
Nocxium 300,00
Zydrine 4 600,00
Megacyte 6 700,00
Mophite 20 000,00

RefCcpId Materials Weighting
34 Tritanium 1
35 Pyerite 1/ 2
36 Mexallon 1/ 4
37 Isogene 1/ 8
38 Noxcium 1/16
39 Zydrine 1/32
40 Megacyte 1/64
11399 Morphite 1/99



but for building you must n evaluat the ratio of each kind of buid , id you know that you can evaluat market needs
Droxlyn
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#36 - 2012-06-17 11:34:07 UTC
Jdestars wrote:
Not you made not bad for the head etablissant formula in the walnut but use the base prices which are in the DB
and you can easily establish the ratio of any mineral

Name Base npc
Tritanium 1,50
Pyerite 4,00
Mexallon 15,00
Isogen 64,00
Nocxium 300,00
Zydrine 4 600,00
Megacyte 6 700,00
Mophite 20 000,00

RefCcpId Materials Weighting
34 Tritanium 1
35 Pyerite 1/ 2
36 Mexallon 1/ 4
37 Isogene 1/ 8
38 Noxcium 1/16
39 Zydrine 1/32
40 Megacyte 1/64
11399 Morphite 1/99
but for building you must n evaluate the ratio of each kind of build , id you know that you can evaluate market needs


The theoretical ratios that the NPCs use do not track with business logic.
The NPCs assume each ore will be worth more than the previous one due to "more supply" = "cheaper" but there is so much supply of each in highsec and so much demand for the lowest end that this assumption is defeated.
So, you have to say 1m3 of X ore = 1m3 of veldspar and start solving for that.
There are two ways to solve for Isogen. You try both. Then you plug the value you get from one to the other. If you use the price of Isogen from Omber, Kernite becomes worth more than Veldspar. This violates the equivalency test and so you must use the Kernite Isogen price which makes Omber crappy.
Thus you get:
Trit = 1*Trit
Pyerite =1.6037406338*Trit
Mexallon =9.4629712088*Trit
Isogen =17.43148364*Trit
Nocxium =84.1089579845*Trit

I am not sure why Isogen is below goal and Nocxium is above goal, but I'm sure those will close in as time passes and the lowest ends start getting more in-line.
It is creepy but cool.

BTW, Hedbergite and Arkonor set Zydrine and Megacyte prices, but they don't track due to rarity.
Zydrine =87.2025160131*Trit
Megacyte =244.2173643899*Trit

Drox
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#37 - 2012-06-28 14:42:25 UTC


It’s interesting to see Scordite as profitable as Bistot.

Is high sec mining more profitable than null sec mining? (Accounting for fees and transportation time)



Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#38 - 2012-07-06 21:36:03 UTC


People seem to forget.


Herr Hammer Draken
#39 - 2012-07-07 07:43:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Herr Hammer Draken
Droxlyn wrote:
Jdestars wrote:
Not you made not bad for the head etablissant formula in the walnut but use the base prices which are in the DB
and you can easily establish the ratio of any mineral

Name Base npc
Tritanium 1,50
Pyerite 4,00
Mexallon 15,00
Isogen 64,00
Nocxium 300,00
Zydrine 4 600,00
Megacyte 6 700,00
Mophite 20 000,00

RefCcpId Materials Weighting
34 Tritanium 1
35 Pyerite 1/ 2
36 Mexallon 1/ 4
37 Isogene 1/ 8
38 Noxcium 1/16
39 Zydrine 1/32
40 Megacyte 1/64
11399 Morphite 1/99
but for building you must n evaluate the ratio of each kind of build , id you know that you can evaluate market needs


The theoretical ratios that the NPCs use do not track with business logic.
The NPCs assume each ore will be worth more than the previous one due to "more supply" = "cheaper" but there is so much supply of each in highsec and so much demand for the lowest end that this assumption is defeated.
So, you have to say 1m3 of X ore = 1m3 of veldspar and start solving for that.
There are two ways to solve for Isogen. You try both. Then you plug the value you get from one to the other. If you use the price of Isogen from Omber, Kernite becomes worth more than Veldspar. This violates the equivalency test and so you must use the Kernite Isogen price which makes Omber crappy.
Thus you get:
Trit = 1*Trit
Pyerite =1.6037406338*Trit
Mexallon =9.4629712088*Trit
Isogen =17.43148364*Trit
Nocxium =84.1089579845*Trit

I am not sure why Isogen is below goal and Nocxium is above goal, but I'm sure those will close in as time passes and the lowest ends start getting more in-line.
It is creepy but cool.

BTW, Hedbergite and Arkonor set Zydrine and Megacyte prices, but they don't track due to rarity.
Zydrine =87.2025160131*Trit
Megacyte =244.2173643899*Trit

Drox


This, If kernite had a lot less or no isogen then omber would become a valuable ore to mine. But as it is kernite produces enough isogen to satisfy isogen demand thus no need to mine omber for isogen. Almost anything that requires isogen to build also need mexallon in a slightly higher quantity. Thus Kernite is the prefered supply for these minerals. As a side benefit you even get a chunk of tritanium which is needed in great quantities for everything. Granted omber also has tritanium but it produces less isogen and less tritanium per refine unit than kernite does. And the amount of pyerite in ombar is not worth it either as we mine scordite for that plus trit. Omber is thus the bastard child of ores which does not fit demand in any combination very well. Other combinations of ores are much more effective in generating the minerals required and efficiency required for building stuff for eve.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Dave Stark
#40 - 2012-07-07 07:49:30 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:


It’s interesting to see Scordite as profitable as Bistot.

Is high sec mining more profitable than null sec mining? (Accounting for fees and transportation time)





no, because arkonor is still way ahead of any other ore in the game right now.
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