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Secret Invention Nerf/?!?!

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Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2012-05-31 19:58:13 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Spitfire
*snip* Please refrain from personal attacks. Spitfire
Haulie Berry
#2 - 2012-05-31 20:02:18 UTC
Quote:
180 attempts, 30 success. whats going on here. what has changed?


I did 180, too, and 150 were successful.

Guess it balances out.
Haulie Berry
#3 - 2012-05-31 20:12:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
My base invention chance is 50.4%, which makes my base failure rate 49.6%. This makes it marginally more likely for me to see 150 successes out of 180 attempts than 150 failures out of 180 attempts.

You had 150 failures out of 180 attempts.


I'm not sure what is so unbelievable about this.
Haulie Berry
#4 - 2012-05-31 20:21:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh wrote:
I requested that this thread be kept mongrol free. Please if you would like to lie about your success chances etc, go troll some other thread. My base invention chance is higher then yours, and as always, if you flip a coin, there will be stretches of one side or the other, but not on 180 runs. There should be balance by then.

your quote of 150/180 success is moronic, please go troll someplace else you clown


Er... lie about my success chances?

If you have all 5s, the base chance for module invention is 50.4%. Yours is not higher than this. Nobody's is. Without using decryptors or metaitems, that is literally as high as it can possibly be.

Since there's a 50.4% chance of success per job, the odds of seeing 150 out of 180 jobs succeed is slightly better than seeing 150 out of 180 jobs fail (only a 49.6% chance per job).

This, my quoted 150/180 successes is, in fact, more likely than your quoted 150/180 failures. So, however moronic my claim of 150/180 successes may be, your claim of 150/180 failures is slightly more moronic. Lol

180, btw, is not even remotely near being a statistically significant number.

Maybe the RNG just likes me better? P
Haulie Berry
#5 - 2012-05-31 20:41:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh wrote:
Depending on the mod im making I posted above that I push it as high as 60%.


You're confusing your success rate with your success chance. Your success chance, absent meta-level items or decryptors, is no higher than 50.4%. The invention success chance formula is a known value that is trivially easy to calculate.


Quote:
180 invention runs is significant. trust me kid,


Okay. I'll trust the quasi-literate forum poster in dire need of a remedial statistics course over the rest of the world's knowledge of probability and quantitative methods.

Seems like a prudent course of action. P

Quote:
the fact that I gave real numbers, and you just barfed up the exact opposite of the numbers I gave reduces the credibility of your post to zero. So why are you continuing to troll? Please stop being such a mongrol and go find something better to do with your time.


Because people who are bad at math tickle my funnybone.
Bridgette d'Iberville
Better Killing Through Chemistry
#6 - 2012-05-31 20:52:00 UTC
Question: If there had been an actual massive nerf to invention chances that started two weeks ago, don't you think there would have been a hell of a lot more forum posts than yours asking about this over the last two weeks?

"I considered a career in griefing, but then realized that I would never achieve the level of tear generation that CCP manages to do each and every expansion."
Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2012-05-31 20:55:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh
Question: If there had been an actual massive nerf to invention chances that started two weeks ago, don't you think there would have been a hell of a lot more forum posts than yours asking about this over the last two weeks?

Indeed! That is why I have not arrested my invention runs. Also that is why I put "secret" in the title of this thread. It is as if something has changed but was not mentioned. I was hoping a few other people who manufacture could weigh in, but I keep getting some mongrol beta mutt posting every 15 minutes.
Haulie Berry
#8 - 2012-05-31 20:58:39 UTC
Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh wrote:
Kid, You went to all the trouble to go get the actual max numbers for manufacturing and then claim that you actually have them, but you dont. It is slightly odd that I ran 180 runs, and so did you!!! wow what are the odds, it is almost like you just came to troll. Pathetic. So you are posting lies, why wont you stop?




I'm not sure which part it is that you think is a lie. Do you not agree that the base success chance with all 5s for module invention is 50.4%?

Your sample size of 180 runs is ludicrously small compared to the number of invention jobs being run in the aggregate. Do you have any idea how many invention jobs are run every day?

To reach the long term expected value of 50.4% success would only require (roughly) 7 players in addition to yourself enjoying a 55% success rate across 180 runs each.

Hell, at 30/180 you're really only about one standard deviation out. You're at the far end of it, to be sure, but it's really not that radical an occurrence.
Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2012-05-31 21:04:03 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Spitfire
*snip* Please refrain from personal attacks. Spitfire
Zifrian
The Frog Pond
Ribbit.
#10 - 2012-05-31 21:07:25 UTC
You need more than 180 runs to be statistically significant. That is stats 101.

I have not noticed any issues with invention success rates this patch or any others.

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Haulie Berry
#11 - 2012-05-31 21:07:28 UTC
Quetzalcoatl Popol Vuh wrote:
Kid I requested about 5 times now that you go be a clown someplace else. What dont you get about " I dont give a F*c* about your bullsh*t stories"

Im not really sure what you think you are going to gain from all of this.



Well, hopefully what I (and the rest of S&I) will gain is one fewer poster rushing to the forums to post about phantom nerfs every time he hits a cold streak.
Michael Harari
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
#12 - 2012-05-31 21:26:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Michael Harari
Someone here sounds pretty mad

Edit: its cute that he blanked most of his posts
Barbara Nichole
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#13 - 2012-05-31 21:29:31 UTC
I don't get it. was something nerfed other than datacore acquisition?

  - remove the cloaked from local; free intel is the real problem, not  "afk" cloaking -

[IMG]http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a208/DawnFrostbringer/consultsig.jpg[/IMG]
Rengerel en Distel
#14 - 2012-05-31 21:57:39 UTC
Barbara Nichole wrote:
I don't get it. was something nerfed other than datacore acquisition?


Yeah, they picked one random guy in the game to nerf his invention success rate, and didn't post about it in the notes. Now we know who it was though.

With the increase in shiptoasting, the Report timer needs to be shortened.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#15 - 2012-06-01 00:47:57 UTC
"Inconceivable!"

Low probability doesn't mean it is impossible, only less likely. The probability of being struck by lightning is also pretty low, but people still are struck.


The probability of r successes out of n attempts with probability p of success = n! / (r! * (n - r)!) * p^r * (1 - p)^(n - r)

The probability of 30 successes out of 180 attempts with level 4 skills on modules (0.4826) = 0.000000000000000000505825970205

The probability of 86 successes out of 180 attempts with level 4 skills on modules (0.4826) = 0.058950496448170902623234019397

The probability of 70 to 100 successes: 0.974379162184268745425061706752

You were unlucky to fall outside the 70 to 100 range into the less than 2.6% territory. Stuff happens.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#16 - 2012-06-01 01:16:19 UTC
10/10 for originality, Man I wish I'd thought of this type of Trolling first!

Hats off to reveal fuzzy green hair to you sir!
Jajas Helper
#17 - 2012-06-01 08:47:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Jajas Helper
I run 9 toons - 10 slots minmum on each - and put 270 slots in inventing every day -> nothing has changed!

I sometimes pull 70/90 other times only 30 and once 13/90 ( no lies) however i do pull more 45-70 up invention succes then lowballers- but overal it evens out well over 50% succes rate every week

You got unlucky - i think you missed that little word 'CHANCE'

Inferno do _stuff _with _stuff _to imitate the _stuff _you could do faster with the old stuff

-stuff-
CCP Spitfire
C C P
C C P Alliance
#18 - 2012-06-01 09:50:45 UTC
No content, thread locked.

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