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Navy Geddons to spike.
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IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber
#1 - 2012-05-22 06:27:38 UTC  |  Edited by: IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
So looking at the new FW LP stores the cheapest available Navy geddon will be 600k LP + Geddon hull, A 4 fold increase in price.

Couple that with reduced Amarr agent availability, and increased demand for LP from datacores and system upgrades.


It kind of seems like there is only one way these ship prices can go and its just a matter of time before the price hikes. I think we will see 500m within 2 weeks or so as supply should completely dry up, even once the price hits 600m there will be better methods for Amarr pilots to cash LP (datacores etc.)


Yes this is a manipulation attempt, I want these prices moving, but if you look at the numbers it seems inevitable so I'm sure there is still plenty of ISK to be made.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#2 - 2012-05-22 06:32:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Tau Cabalander
Erm... wouldn't the prices drop? Especially as they now get a lot of LP for kills.

Patch Notes for Inferno wrote:
War Zone Control
Holding and upgrading Factional Warfare systems now have an impact in a faction success as a whole. Number of systems and upgrades hold in the same War Zone (Amarr/Minmatar or Caldari/Gallente War zones respectively) are counted as part of points, then used to unlock War Zone Control tiers:

War Zone Control Tier 1 – between 0 and 20% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are multiplied by four next to their pre-Inferno numbers.
War Zone Control Tier 2 – between 20% and 40% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are multiplied by two next to their pre-Inferno numbers, the faction receives 5% bonus to all Factional Warfare LP gains.
War Zone Control Tier 3 – between 40% and 60% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are the same as pre-Inferno, the faction receives 10% bonus to all Factional Warfare LP gains.
War Zone Control Tier 3 – between 60% and 80% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are twice as cheap as their pre-Inferno numbers, the faction receives 15% bonus to all Factional Warfare LP gains.
War Zone Control Tier 3 – between 80% and 100% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are four times as cheap as their pre-Inferno numbers, the faction receives 20% bonus to all Factional Warfare LP gains.
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber
#3 - 2012-05-22 06:33:48 UTC  |  Edited by: IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Erm... wouldn't the prices drop?

Patch Notes for Inferno wrote:
War Zone Control
Holding and upgrading Factional Warfare systems now have an impact in a faction success as a whole. Number of systems and upgrades hold in the same War Zone (Amarr/Minmatar or Caldari/Gallente War zones respectively) are counted as part of points, then used to unlock War Zone Control tiers:

-Snip-


You are reading it the wrong way. The relevant one here is

War Zone Control Tier 1 – between 0 and 20% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are multiplied by four next to their pre-Inferno numbers.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#4 - 2012-05-22 06:47:54 UTC
Hmm... ok. As they are keeping the same pre-inferno "sov" I don't think they will be starting from 0, though I'm really not in touch with FW.

I think I read they can earn 100k LP from a single kill, so again, wouldn't prices drop?

I don't mind being told I'm wrong, as I'm out to learn here. I predicted FW would have a big impact on the market, but I was expecting prices to drop.
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber
#5 - 2012-05-22 06:59:28 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Hmm... ok. As they are keeping the same pre-inferno "sov" I don't think they will be starting from 0, though I'm really not in touch with FW.

I think I read they can earn 100k LP from a single kill, so again, wouldn't prices drop?

I don't mind being told I'm wrong, as I'm out to learn here. I predicted FW would have a big impact on the market, but I was expecting prices to drop.



Yeah they will be keeping it, Yes you could earn 100k LP from a single kill but thats from a 1bn ISK ship and it would be split between parties, its rare to get solo 1bn ISK kills. Realistically LP from kills will be fairly minimal probably around 500k-1m LP for each milita per month, which is equivalent to 5-10 hours missioning from 1 pilot, hardly anything to write home about.

Also plexes will give LP but this too will be fairly minor compared to missions which is where the vast majoritory of LP will come from.

I think these increases in supply will barely plug the gap left by the removal of half of the amarr low sec agents, and do nothing to correct for the 4 X increase in LP prices.

I really can't see a way for these ships to do anything other that climb in price, probably fairly sharply. Similar principles apply to other Amarr FW items like Omen navy issue I assume, but I haven't checked those as carefully.
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2012-05-22 10:37:54 UTC
War Zone Control Tier 3 – between 40% and 60% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are the same as pre-Inferno, the faction receives 10% bonus to all Factional Warfare LP gains.

^
This shouldn't take long to achieve. not in the immidiate future, but within a week or two we'll see those.
might be before the current stocks run out.
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber
#7 - 2012-05-22 11:21:58 UTC  |  Edited by: IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Johnny Frecko wrote:
War Zone Control Tier 3 – between 40% and 60% of total War Zone points: the faction LP store prices are the same as pre-Inferno, the faction receives 10% bonus to all Factional Warfare LP gains.

^
This shouldn't take long to achieve. not in the immidiate future, but within a week or two we'll see those.
might be before the current stocks run out.



Currently Amarr hold 11 systems out of 70. Or in other words if they fully upgrade them they can achieve 15% warzone control, maximum.

To get to Tier 3 would need them to capture 17 more systems, which under the new mechanics takes about 20 X longer than it did under the old system. Thats before you factor in the ability to buffer systems with LP for defence.

They have also lost 2 of their larger corps who have announced they intend to leave FW post patch.

TL;DR Although possible it would be not without quite a long period of time and would need large backing which really isn't there at the moment. I think the status quo will be here long enough to affect the prices on these ships.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#8 - 2012-05-22 16:43:08 UTC
I wouldnt push it past 500, you could see demand plummet due to similarities between the N geddon and Abba, minor increase in performance wont warrant the 600 price mark. thought 500 might be realistic, 400 would definitely work, its quite obvious that even 300 is a drop under-priced.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#9 - 2012-05-22 19:21:41 UTC
Given the price of inputs, navy geddons are worth about 73 isk per LP at tier 1. Other tier 1 battleships are similar in LP value. Blink

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber
#10 - 2012-05-22 19:33:42 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Given the price of inputs, navy geddons are worth about 73 isk per LP at tier 1. Other tier 1 battleships are similar in LP value. Blink


Fleet phoon is over 2000 ISK per LP already. Geddon will have to go up, no one is going to cash in at that rate.
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber
#11 - 2012-05-22 20:07:27 UTC
Price has gone up about 200m since I made the OP, sell orders now at around 450m still rising.


You're welcome.