Market Discussions

Im really curious, from a market standpoint, and from an investment standpoint, it really seems a bit off. I look at the math, the numbers, and the volume, and I just dont get it. Why did minerals tank so bad? Would love some input, thanks.

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I get the impression that rich people bought loads, cause mass panic and then cash in. The majority of people are sheep and just follow the trend. I.e. Someone announces that Trit is now 20isk p/u and some fools will start refusing to sell below 20 isk p/u... everyone follows.

I havnt seen any convincing evidence that is was just speculation. Perhaps Im a shmuck but I still believe that zydrine will rise again once stockpiles are sold off.

This is about holding off hitting the panic sell button.

In saying that I totally walked into the Morphite speculation, and didnt think trit would rise as quick or as strongly as it did.

Well aren't you precious.

To bring some fundamentals into it, Morphite crashed because it was oversupplied. Prior to the start of speculation, anywhere from 43% to 60% of morphite was supplied via mining already, even with the price in the gutter. After speculation started running the price up into the high teens, mining alone was then supplying more than had been supplied previously by mining and drone poo combined, and that was even before the patch that removed drone poo. It is likely, due to the optimal method of handing grav sites, that the amount of Morphite mined has only increased, too.

Mega, Zyd & Nocx are also all undersupplied (Nocx especially, the numbers are hysterical) compared to when the drone regions were in existence, but as has been noted, all three were speculated in heavily. Combine with the fact that mining is still producing minerals, and those stockpiles will last for some time.

I made and am still making money even as I am writing this.
I am a *snip* who is making money and the latter is what matters in trading.




My own fundamentals analysis brought me to the conclusion that Trit would be a safe trade but also the other low ends would go up in a steadier way. If that happened then the high ends would have had to tank because the old insurance minerals basket has been replaced by another, less obvious one. That and not just the true mined supply would affect prices.

I agree with the sentiment that trit and pyerite are good at the moment. I just tend to hoard these minerals and never seem to get around to selling them since, well, why would you. They perform very well as holdings. Trit seems to have hit resistance around 6.00 - 6.20 ISK so it will be interesting if it can break through that barrier in a sustained way. Of interest is a slight but noticeable decrease in volumes, especially in Amarr, over the past month or so. This could indicate a supply imbalance... For me, I'm going to just hold it. What I mine I'll keep but I probably won't buy much more.

Pyerite also looks like it's breaking the pattern too at the moment. Again volumes have trended lower in the last three weeks. This I've been buying lately since it's held nicely against the drop in the higher end minerals.

Nocxium - I sold a little late on this one (around 850 - well and truly after the downward trend had kicked in). Until I get a sense that we're hitting a bottom I'm keeping my buy orders very low and so long as the trend remains I keep dropping my orders. Long term I'm positive though but I want to see trend changing first. I'm hoping we get some good support levels around 725 - 750. Time will tell I guess.

Zydrine - I've both made money in some positions and made some unrealized losses on others. I'm holding what I have since I have some heavy holdings which were bought around 1350. Long term I'm positive though. There is still a lot of volume being traded at the moment (and for the last two months) so it's hard to tell when the volatility is going to wash out of the system.

I certainly agree with people that Mega, Zyd, Nocx and Morphite were heavily speculated and vast volumes were accumulated. It's going to take time to unwind those positions.

For anyone who trades intra-day on the spread between buy and sell, morphite's OK right now (about a 7% spread) and mexallon (around 4%). Just make sure to close out your positions before you go to bed otherwise you may have a headache in the morning . Especially in this market...

We can see here an upper estimation of monthly mineral production pre Inferno. Its upper estimation, because it did not take into account reprocessing from 'mineral compression' and such - ie actual amounts of minerals introduced in game per month is somewhat lower. Just how much lower is irrelevant for the moment.

Mining stats from the end of the april :


Reprocessed into minerals these ores produce per day:
29140777020 trit
4169005810 pyer
1844773273 mexa
312495200 isog
103454539 nocx
50179070 zydr
22797750 mega
1965240 morp

This is conservative estimate, as it does not take into account +5% and +10% ores(in original data all kinds of veldespar go into veldespar stat and so on).

Basically as far as high ends are concerned - with current mining levels zydrine and megacyte produced from mining already surpassed march levels of supply from ALL sources.

great stack!!

Well, you can draw you own conclusions from that. Either diagoras numbers are incorrect, or 40% number is no longer true as of march this year. Its clear that his refine numbers for march is actually refine plus reprocess(exactly as he himself says) - low ends output is much higher than april output from mining.


Yes they are. I just treated them as normal ores when calculating refined output. Ie actual refined output will be a little higher - but not by much. 2% more or something like that. Than again not all refine is perfect, so its couple percent points in different direction.

The reason the drone regions got reset to bounties was they created over supply. They have been doing that for years. A month won't reset the market. Those minerals might very well float in the system for a year or more. Longer with Morphite as no new T2 Hulls have been added in a long while. A new T2 Hull would promote production and clean up minerals. It would also insure a fair playing field because any T2 Hull coming out today won't have a BPO so any production will be exlusive to invention.

T2 Drake/ Harbinger/ Myrmidon/ Hurricane anyone?