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Possible Cap Ship mfg service
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Tessla Coil
Pirannha Corp
#1 - 2012-05-12 15:35:38 UTC
I am casting about to see if there would be any interest in a cap ship building service.
I am debating starting one up.

The business model I would run on would be one of a flat mfg rate, above the cost of minerals. modules, and any bluerprints required.
I am thinking right now, 125 million above cost for a carrier, 200M above cost for a dreadnought.
Most manufacturers get far more profit per mfg slot-hour than that.

Now, why offer a service when people can buy cap ships right off the market?
Because I would offer full service, as the ship would roll off the assembly line and be fitted as per the buyer's specifications.
Fuel would be provided as well, so buyer simply picks up ship and goes, no looking for a trade hub to flesh out the build.

And the reason on my side for offering a flat rate above min/mod.blueprint costs ( I already own the vast majority of the cap component and ship BPO's, all well researched) is cost certainty. With the wild fluctuations in mineral costs lately, I have been burned buying minerals 2 weeks ago for a ship that rolled off the assembly line today. I hate risk.

If a potential cap ship buyer wants a ship in the near future, and thinks that min prices are going to go up, he could buy a ship today or contract with me to build one. Conversely, if the buyer thinks that mins are going to drop in price, I would recommend he just wait out the market and buy at the lower price.

What I have observed is that the spot price of a cap ship is dictated by the spot price of the minerals, not the cost of the minerals when they were purchased.

Bottom line, I am just seeing if there is any interest in such a service.
I have more of the business model worked out, but not going to type it all out unless I see some interest.
Fynen
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2012-05-12 16:34:57 UTC
And... you are asking for people to bid on ships knowing that those ships will probably never be manufactured... or will take weeks to build? Or why are you posting in Sellorder forum? Perhaps you should ask questions in the market discussion forum instead. At least from here it looks more like you wish to discuss ship manufacturing instead of selling them here.
Tessla Coil
Pirannha Corp
#3 - 2012-05-12 16:41:11 UTC
Fynen wrote:
And... you are asking for people to bid on ships knowing that those ships will probably never be manufactured... or will take weeks to build? Or why are you posting in Sellorder forum? Perhaps you should ask questions in the market discussion forum instead. At least from here it looks more like you wish to discuss ship manufacturing instead of selling them here.


I see other services being offered in this forum.
Chayni
Revolution Industries
Rote Works
#4 - 2012-05-12 16:42:37 UTC
You are 'casting about' firing up a major production organization which requires more time and resources than.... well...

/me train of thought still boarding at station....
Tessla Coil
Pirannha Corp
#5 - 2012-05-12 16:50:01 UTC
Chayni wrote:
You are 'casting about' firing up a major production organization which requires more time and resources than.... well...

/me train of thought still boarding at station....


I already do mfg cap ships.
I already have the BPO's, very well researched.

But I am thinking of winding the current production down, since though I am very good at organizing manufacturing, I am awful at marketing and timing mineral markets. When minerals go up or down 20-30% as they have in the past months, I invariably get burned.

As I stated, this service provides both sides with cost certainty, and I believe my pricing model would be offering cap ships at below market prices, assuming min prices stay stable. If you think mins will stay stable or go up, you would do fine buying from me.. If you think minerals are going down, then buy from the market when you need the ship.
Fynen
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2012-05-12 16:55:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Fynen
Tessla Coil wrote:
Fynen wrote:
And... you are asking for people to bid on ships knowing that those ships will probably never be manufactured... or will take weeks to build? Or why are you posting in Sellorder forum? Perhaps you should ask questions in the market discussion forum instead. At least from here it looks more like you wish to discuss ship manufacturing instead of selling them here.


I see other services being offered in this forum.


What service do you offer then? I do not see any concrete item or service to buy from you. You neither write about exactly which capitals you want to sell nor do you tell us how much iskies you want for which ship.

Lets try it. Yes, i want one. What would you answer to that? Due to your... nebulous service offer you can't even know what i can possibly want.

About your manufacturers problems with unstable mineral prices: Some days you win, others you loose. You will get the profit from ships you build with low min prices and sell at a time when min prices are high... and vice versa of course. Telling before the fact when it goes up or down is not feasible so you have to live with it. :)
Tessla Coil
Pirannha Corp
#7 - 2012-05-12 16:58:20 UTC
Fynen wrote:
Tessla Coil wrote:
Fynen wrote:
And... you are asking for people to bid on ships knowing that those ships will probably never be manufactured... or will take weeks to build? Or why are you posting in Sellorder forum? Perhaps you should ask questions in the market discussion forum instead. At least from here it looks more like you wish to discuss ship manufacturing instead of selling them here.


I see other services being offered in this forum.


What service do you offer then? I do not see any concrete item or service to buy from you. You neither write about exactly which capitals you want to sell nor do you tell us how much iskies you want for which ship.

Lets try it. Yes, i want one. What would you answer to that? Due to your... nebulous service offer you can't even know what i can possibly want.



Ah, 1st post....carrier = 125M over all mat and blueprint costs, dreads = 200M above.
So yeah, final price are nebulous, based on mineral spot prices on the day the buyer says he wants a ship.
Fynen
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2012-05-12 17:04:33 UTC
Tessla Coil wrote:

Ah, 1st post....carrier = 125M over all mat and blueprint costs, dreads = 200M above.
So yeah, final price are nebulous, based on mineral spot prices on the day the buyer says he wants a ship.


Hm, theres another gal around here somewhere who just offered to sell capitals. She wrote the exact price and type and updated that regularly. If someone ordered, she would start the building queue and contract the ship when done for the price that was current at the time the buyer ordered the ship.

But that just increases your problems. I remember that thread because a buyer was very happy indeed at the time he ordered a ship since that was before the mineral increase shortly before the drone bounty change and she still sold the ship for the agreed on price. That was not a good decision for the wallet but a good one to remain and increase your integrity and trustworthyness.

On the other hand you will still have the risk that if prices decrease drastically, the buyer may just ignore you and never claim your contract. Eve is not exactly the most friendly environment around, best to see with a look into jita local.

So, even if you build on order only you still have your problem right there.
Officer Nyota Uhura
#9 - 2012-05-12 17:38:21 UTC
Tessla Coil wrote:
When minerals go up or down 20-30% as they have in the past months, I invariably get burned.

I'm sorry to be the messenger here, but someone has to say it. Given the mineral and ship prices over the past 3 months -- and the fluctuations too -- if you have got burned even once, you're doing something very, very wrong. I hope that someone subscribes to your service if that's the only way you can break even.
Tessla Coil
Pirannha Corp
#10 - 2012-05-12 20:08:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Tessla Coil
Officer Nyota Uhura wrote:
Tessla Coil wrote:
When minerals go up or down 20-30% as they have in the past months, I invariably get burned.

I'm sorry to be the messenger here, but someone has to say it. Given the mineral and ship prices over the past 3 months -- and the fluctuations too -- if you have got burned even once, you're doing something very, very wrong. I hope that someone subscribes to your service if that's the only way you can break even.



Well, I fail large then.
Hence why I am talking about a service to gain cost certainty.

Case in point, I had an order to build 8 cap ships. I bought minerals for first ships about 2 weeks ago.
I mfg the cap components, which takes 2-4 days. I then put my cap ship blueprints to work, and ships are done in another 10-11 days.
In that time, minerals crash.

How am I "doing it very, very wrong"?

As someone else posted, it is a no lose situation for the buyer.
Only way I can come out with the expected profit is to get the cash upfront for the ship, and then sell the ship at the agreed upon price, which is precisely what I am suggesting here.

The cost of the cap ship will precisely set, based on mineral prices when minerals are purchased for the ship prior , plus my mfg fee, plus any mods or blueprints .

If the prices of mins go up in the 2 weeks that it takes to build a ship, then the buyer wins because they can turn around and sell the ship for a profit, or do with it as they wish.

If min prices remain stable, both sides are satisfied.

If mins go down in price, I get my expected profit, but the buyer is unhappy since they could have bought the cap ship at a lower price, since ship prices appear to be based on mineral spot prices, not the mineral prices when the manufacturing process of the ship started.

But, if you look at the mfg fee I am talking about charging, if minerals prices stay flat, the buyer wins since my fee plus min costs is lower than the market sell prices of cap ships.

I am looking to take lower profits to gain profit certainty.
Officer Nyota Uhura
#11 - 2012-05-13 07:01:16 UTC
Tessla Coil wrote:
Case in point, I had an order to build 8 cap ships. I bought minerals for first ships about 2 weeks ago.
I mfg the cap components, which takes 2-4 days. I then put my cap ship blueprints to work, and ships are done in another 10-11 days.
In that time, minerals crash.

How am I "doing it very, very wrong"?


Half of cap ship price comes from Tritanium and Mexallon. In the past 3 months there has been no such crash - it's been an upward trend with Tritanium (now quite stable); and it's been a slow downward trend with Mexallon (with a maximum of maybe 5 points down over any 2 or 3 week period). I don't know what you build, where you buy, or how you sell, but given the profits on caps, it's been very hard or impossible not to make profit in the past 3 months if you know anything about what you're doing.

Again, sorry for having to be the messenger of this message to you... Sad
Tessla Coil
Pirannha Corp
#12 - 2012-05-13 14:11:56 UTC
Officer Nyota Uhura wrote:
Tessla Coil wrote:
Case in point, I had an order to build 8 cap ships. I bought minerals for first ships about 2 weeks ago.
I mfg the cap components, which takes 2-4 days. I then put my cap ship blueprints to work, and ships are done in another 10-11 days.
In that time, minerals crash.

How am I "doing it very, very wrong"?


Half of cap ship price comes from Tritanium and Mexallon. In the past 3 months there has been no such crash - it's been an upward trend with Tritanium (now quite stable); and it's been a slow downward trend with Mexallon (with a maximum of maybe 5 points down over any 2 or 3 week period). I don't know what you build, where you buy, or how you sell, but given the profits on caps, it's been very hard or impossible not to make profit in the past 3 months if you know anything about what you're doing.

Again, sorry for having to be the messenger of this message to you... Sad


Archons were selling for 1.4 billion when I started this venture.
14 days later they sell for 1.25 billion.

175 million in profit gone, right there.