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Mineral consumption - Bubble over?

Author
DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#41 - 2012-05-08 12:02:47 UTC  |  Edited by: DeliaPrescot
You guys with large mineral stacks should start to panic right now.

What we see here is EVE most famous meme the butterfly effect. As long as the mineral prices are so high a lot of occasionally mining happens from people who usually don't mine, it's simple as that and with that occasionally mining a lot more minerals are flooded into the market. It's all about numbers even if those occasionally miners mine only for 1h per day, if enough do that ... you get the twist.
Just check the daily volume of Trit from the last 2 weeks and compare that to any 2 weeks 4months ago. Right now this is not fool proof as we still have some large stockpiles and dumping going on but give it another month or 2. The difference in volume will be marginally as long as the price stay at this level.

I could be dead wrong but the only other option is CCP doesn't catch enough mining bots every week. At the end of the day all that matters is how many mining bots are killed every week. Assuming we still have a very high level of mining bots and if CCP is able to get them to a very low level in the near future mineral prices will rise to a whole new level and then the masses of real players will kick in even more.

Again it is very simple if mineral prices stay at this high level a lot of players will just mine for 1h or 2h to get enough stuff to build whatever they want even if mining will still be inferior to other proffession ISK/h wise. Mining will be the new minigame while you are on a roam, shooting structures, CTA etc. etc.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#42 - 2012-05-08 13:29:21 UTC
I feel like I need to take a deep breath after reading your post. Slow down, it will be ok. Incidental mining by players will never make up for the hordes of bots and drone-poo farmers that used to supply the majority of minerals. Mining is still really boring, so even if it is nearly as profitable as running L4's, people won't switch over in masses large enough to significantly effect prices.

There will simply be a new equilibrium at higher prices due to scarcity.
DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#43 - 2012-05-08 14:23:53 UTC  |  Edited by: DeliaPrescot
I never doubted a new equilibrium, there will be one for sure. The major factors will be CCPs success/failure in bot hunting and the price level of minerals. High level prices will cause many many players to use mining as a "passive" task in between.
Mining is boring as hell and personally i would never do that but here is the thing you can mine while you do others things. You don't have to pay attention, yes you won't be efficient, you will miss cycles etc but that does not matter as you do it as 2nd task. To get into low level "passive" mining you need about 2weeks skilltime (not talking about Hulk).

Talk to some older players like 4 to 5 years old ones and ask them how it was back then, i bet about 50% had a 2nd char with mining as profession doing that awful boring mining as 2nd task while doing the fun thing as main. Factor in that it is easy as hell to produce T1 Ships/Stuff, the BPC are cheap the skill level to make them low. A lot more players will just start to produce their own stuff bypassing the market and they won't care that it won't be ISK/h efficient as "passive" mined mins are free. In this case i mean literally free as you do it as 2nd task.

I can hear a lot of MD screaming now mins are not free, they aren't if you are doing it as main task but as 2nd task i label them as free.
Kris Longknife
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#44 - 2012-05-08 14:31:11 UTC
I too, dual box when I am trying to gain income. I have one person ratting and one mining. I agree the mining is boreing as hell and if I only had one character would stay the hell away from it. But in this day and age in EVE who only has one character but the lowest of newguys. CCP is even getting in the act by playing up its power of two program.

The idea that people will stay away from mining because it is boring is ... incomplete. Many will be jumping to do this as a side profession since they allready have something else to keep their interest.



corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#45 - 2012-05-08 15:06:00 UTC
http://i.imgur.com/3RvXg.png

tell me again, oh late 2009 player, how things were back in "the old days"

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#46 - 2012-05-08 15:08:53 UTC
by the way in case my derision wasn't clear mining was never like that and anyone who had actually mined would know that the idea of mining to build stuff is laughable. why yes i have all these crokite and arkonor and bistot asteroids around me with zydrine and nocxium and megacyte, so im going to go and mine the veldspar instead. you know, so I can build my own rifter.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#47 - 2012-05-08 15:17:19 UTC
everyone lied to you minerals are worthless dump them all

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Moto Akimoto
Tengu and Cash
#48 - 2012-05-08 15:24:33 UTC
LOL

Don't panic people.

Just petition CCP like I did, in the subject field enter "Too Big To Fail". P
DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#49 - 2012-05-08 15:33:25 UTC  |  Edited by: DeliaPrescot
corestwo wrote:
http://i.imgur.com/3RvXg.png

tell me again, oh late 2009 player, how things were back in "the old days"


You should know it better ;) but in mine case you are correct but that doesn't mean i don't know 4 to 5 year old ones pre Drone poo times.


Anyway i know
corestwo wrote:
by the way in case my derision wasn't clear mining was never like that and anyone who had actually mined would know that the idea of mining to build stuff is laughable. why yes i have all these crokite and arkonor and bistot asteroids around me with zydrine and nocxium and megacyte, so im going to go and mine the veldspar instead. you know, so I can build my own rifter.

that but that doesn't mean the average highsec carebear does and will calculate the ISK effiency nor he will argue that mins are free if you mine them on a 2nd account while you do blob warfare/whatever.

You shouldn't underestimate the carebear heart, there are awfully lot of players who started a prodder char just to build the ships they use. We will see in 2 month if and how the volume of minerals changed in Jita that is the only hard data players will get.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#50 - 2012-05-08 15:42:41 UTC
the highsec carebear is irrelevant because he can't mine the minerals anyone is concerned with, aside from nocxium, which is already saturated anyway.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#51 - 2012-05-08 16:00:19 UTC  |  Edited by: DeliaPrescot
Right the "good" stuff but you know too that mining in 0.0 is much safer than highsec. I guess Goons and any other 0.0 ally already searched for the good more or less dead end mining systems and installed a cyno jammer, set up bubbles and brought in a Rorqual.

What would be amazing if you can setup a cartel like OTEC for high end mins. Endless piles of ISK :)
Caecilia Arene
Doomheim
#52 - 2012-05-08 16:25:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Caecilia Arene
DeliaPrescot wrote:
Right the "good" stuff :) but you know too that mining in 0.0 is much safer than highsec. I guess Goons and any other 0.0 ally already searched for the good more or less dead end mining systems and installed a cyno jammer, set up bubbles and brought in a Rorqual.

I don't think there is any 'I guess' about it. They, not singling them out specifically since I would expect most 0.0 alliances to do this, would lock the system down and mine. I do know some keep their systems locked down across multiple time zones to mine them. They'd be stupid not to.

Back in the day, waaay back in 2005, before Hulks, Orcas, Rorquals, bubbled gate, cyno jammers and drone regions mining was not anywhere near as sophisticated as it is now. Get a few miners, protected by a carrier or two in some remote system (during a quite time), mine for a few hours, refine in a POS and make some ships to go blow stuff up. Any spare high-ends were carrier jumped back to empire for sale. Low ends were always kept since they were in lower supply out the in reaches of space. Hauler spawns were useful for low ends... Ahh for the FLA and Deklain space again Blink. I've still got jump clones in 3JN9-Q and VFK - sitting collecting dust for 5 years Lol.

At that time Zydrine and Mega were averaging 7-8k ISK. Then came, I'm not sure which order, drone regions, and all the other stuff. High ends fell...

The big question to me now is just how much high-end supply there really is and how many 0.0 alliances are cranking the wheels of industry. There has to be less supply due to recent nerf but there has certainly been some extra recruitment for good miners - although this would take some time to filter through...

Interesting time though!
papamike
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#53 - 2012-05-08 16:26:26 UTC
DeliaPrescot wrote:
Right the "good" stuff but you know too that mining in 0.0 is much safer than highsec. I guess Goons and any other 0.0 ally already searched for the good more or less dead end mining systems and installed a cyno jammer, set up bubbles and brought in a Rorqual.

What would be amazing if you can setup a cartel like OTEC for high end mins. Endless piles of ISK :)



Cores is this an alt of yours and you are just playing silly buggers or is this guy really that clueless?
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#54 - 2012-05-08 16:32:51 UTC
I would have a lot of trouble pretending to be someone that clueless.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#55 - 2012-05-08 16:38:46 UTC
Now i'm offended...... i thought we are all good friends here :P
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#56 - 2012-05-08 16:44:03 UTC
so you're clueless AND naive.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Cookiez Yum
Doomheim
#57 - 2012-05-08 16:45:15 UTC
you're too stupid to be my friend =< maybe a lemming
DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#58 - 2012-05-08 16:50:53 UTC
corestwo wrote:
so you're clueless AND naive.

Yep, caught me.
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#59 - 2012-05-08 17:06:47 UTC
Caecilia Arene wrote:
[quote=DeliaPrescot]
The big question to me now is just how much high-end supply there really is and how many 0.0 alliances are cranking the wheels of industry. There has to be less supply due to recent nerf but there has certainly been some extra recruitment for good miners - although this would take some time to filter through...

Interesting time though!


Matter not it does.

0.0 and hi will be more and more seperated. The shortages will impact hi mostly as alliances can basically order their minions to do whatever they want.
Ms Bax
Union Of EVE
#60 - 2012-05-08 21:28:13 UTC
I just wish I had sold all my minerals last week.