Market Discussions

in theory the easiest way to calculate a value of an item is using the very simple formula of

Value = (income)/(personal intrest rate)


So for example, if you can expect a net income of 100M a month, and your personal intrest rate(meaning the % your isk would make else where, if not invested in the BPO), let's assume it's 4%. you'll get a value of

*drum rolls*
2.5B.

That ignores completely expectations to game changes though. Rarity might increase the value a bit more, but that depends on the buyer mostly. for a person who sees the BPO as strictly an isk making investments rarity means little.

on more realistic notes, if you can make 1B a month selling T2 items from a certain BPO, that price would rise in our little example to 25B, a price you could give a small cheapish T2 bpo.

The above formula is used in real life price-tagging of hard-to-calculate items.
in real life, maybe in here too, there's room to add inflation expecations, which should be in eve at around 1.5-3%, those are added in the formula to the intrest rate.

so you'll get a (income) / (Intrest + inflation).
This is assuming everything is constant, which it isn't, but it's a start.

the before mentioned perpetuity
Value = (income)/(personal intrest rate)

is somewhat of an indicator of value, however most people do not keep a bpo forever. So you can add a future value, say its original cost to the perpetuity value to get its present value. also you need to modify the equation to be more inline with an annuity.

So to correctly price a BPO i would calculate something like

NPV = income/intrest

-(BUY COST) + NPV + (Sell price) / (1+r)^n.

solve this, and it gives you the net present value of the BPO.

with n being the amount of months you would keep the BPO.
and the intrest rate is a monthly one.
That should give you a "correct" indication at what the price *should be*.

Ofcourse the crude method of just starting an auction and seeing how much it goes for also works.
Also to answer your original question - T2 bpos still have profits in them, they're not just collectibles.

T2 BPO's only have value if the price people are willing to pay keep going up.

Invention has taken away a lot of the astronomical profits from the T2 BPO market.



Back in the day there was originally 8 T2 BPO's for each item. Over the last many years certain events have reduced that number without any impact on price. This fact shows that in most cases T2 BPO holders do not set the prices invention people do.

When the EBANK scam blew wide open several T2 mining crystals went with the accounts, but no effect on price was seen.
When Cosmoray left last year, 2 Nighthawk BPO's and several other alliance BPO's left the game due to bans. No effect on price.

T2 BPO is like real estate or gold/oil. One hopes the price keeps going up and nerfs don't trash the value.

Yeah I got my first nighthawk for around 200mil back in 07 and right now it's going for around the same price. It is actually the most stable thing I have seen in terms of price so far in eve off hand. Everything else skyrocketed, 90 GTC was around 300 or 370mil back than on the forums, now it's 500mil for a 30day plex. And according to you we are 2 Nighthawk BPO short now and I haven't seen the price even be impacted from that from what I recall.

was cosmoray banned?

After a few negotiations with T2 BPO sellers i came to the conclusion that a T2 BPO is always worth double the price the current holder paid for it, even if it was 1 hour ago.

And long may she reign.


I fully agree that T2 BPOs are similar to RL art.

Some buy them to add to a collection, some to act as a status symbol, some buy them for the price they have to pay without regard to any return they may or may not get from that purchase.

However I am not one of those people. I buy T2 BPOs for profit, pure and simple. I prefer BPOs that generate a manufacturing profit, even if it is small, because I like to get at least some trickle of income from them for the duration of my ownership. However my primary concern is the increase in the market value of the BPO itself over the the period of my ownership. For this reason I purchase BPOs of low demand items that are clearly unbalanced and in desperate need of a buff and hold them until CCP comes through. As a result I see the value of the BPO increase due to mundane inflation and then compound with a post buff boost in demand. So far I have found this approach to be effective in doubling the value of my T2 BPO fund every 8 months. I don't think that ROI is awe inspiring, but I do believe it to be a worthwhile, enjoyable and low-effort part of my portfolio.

So, for example if you won a crap looking one over the weekend, keep it locked up till CCP buff it and then retire?

I think this is about right, but multiply all numbers by 2.

Im pretty sure 48 of each drone BP was offered in the lottery.