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Hulks

Author
Wuxi Wuxilla
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#161 - 2012-05-03 11:06:48 UTC
TWHC Assistant wrote:
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
Wrecking shot chance is 1%.

Per gun and per volley. Three volleys with 8 guns and the chance is 24% for one gun to do triple damage.

A Tornado then does not do uniform damage, but it will either do EM or thermal damage, which makes for another 10% difference.


No, it's 1% chance that gets rolled 24 times for one gun to do triple damage. If you had 13 Tornados with 8 guns each you wouldn't have a 100% chance for a gun to do triple damage, you'd have 1% chance 8x13 times.

And even with EM the Hulk still has more than 23k EHP - Hardly 10%, isn't it?

Besides that, mine with Orca support and the two Tornados couldn't even touch you.
TWHC Assistant
#162 - 2012-05-03 11:10:46 UTC
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
TWHC Assistant wrote:
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
Wrecking shot chance is 1%.

Per gun and per volley. Three volleys with 8 guns and the chance is 24% for one gun to do triple damage.

A Tornado then does not do uniform damage, but it will either do EM or thermal damage, which makes for another 10% difference.


No, it's 1% chance that gets rolled 24 times for one gun to do triple damage.

No, it does become a 24% chance for one gun to do triple damage when you have 8 and fire them 3 times.

You are desperate. Can you feel it?
Wuxi Wuxilla
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#163 - 2012-05-03 11:17:27 UTC
Quote:

You are desperate. Can you feel it?


Can't... stop... laughing...

Quote:

No, it does become a 24% chance for one gun to do triple damage when you have 8 and fire them 3 times.


As I said with my following example, if you fire 100 guns you don't have a guaranteed wrecking shot. You have 100 times the chance for a wrecking shot.
But that wasn't even the important point.
Nobody is going to gank your Hulk if he depends on Wrecking Shots to do so, especially with a chance that low. That would be a gamble nobody wants to make.
TWHC Assistant
#164 - 2012-05-03 11:26:09 UTC
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
But that wasn't even the important point.
Nobody is going to gank your Hulk if he depends on Wrecking Shots to do so, especially with a chance that low. That would be a gamble nobody wants to make.

No. Nobody wants to sit in a Hulk fitted like this when they have to depend on a Tornado not to get lucky.

As I said, you are desperate, but you are not smart.
Caellach Marellus
Stormcrows
#165 - 2012-05-03 11:34:23 UTC
24 chances at 1% is not 24%.


That said, would like to see a bit of love to the Hulk in some form or other. If a couple of Tornados rolled in and decided they wanted to kill my alt, I'd shrug and go "Fair enough, they really wanted to kill me."

Having to sacrifice the core element of a ship to fend off 2-3 Destroyers? Nah, and I'll use a bit of logic on this one that people have been applying elsewhere for a while.


The last 6 months we've heard nothing but "risk vs reward" bollocks over the Incursion pay. It was a justified call, that for the lack of difficulty and commitment needed, the reward was far too high.

In this case it's dropping a handful of cheap throwaway ships that barely scratch the wallet (risk) scoring easy kills because someone didn't overtank their Hulk because surprise surprise they set it up to mine. They get their reward (Hulk death) and have managed to punch greatly above their weight.

With various changes that have come into the game (dessie RoF penalty removal giving them a second volley, buffs to certain guntypes etc) since the inception of the Hulk, it's no longer balanced against these small elements. A small PG or EHP increase would only bring a level of status quo.

Will you survive a pair of Tornados while set up to mine? Probably not (and you shouldn't) but they committed to their risk with expense, and thus get their reward.


Unkillable mining barges are a ridiculous idea, but so is the idea that a small 2-3 dessie gang can play Iwinpvp.

When your gut instincts tell you something is wrong, trust them. When your heart tells you something is right, ignore it, check with your brain first. Accept nothing, challenge everything.

Wuxi Wuxilla
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#166 - 2012-05-03 11:36:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Wuxi Wuxilla
TWHC Assistant wrote:
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
But that wasn't even the important point.
Nobody is going to gank your Hulk if he depends on Wrecking Shots to do so, especially with a chance that low. That would be a gamble nobody wants to make.

No. Nobody wants to sit in a Hulk fitted like this when they have to depend on a Tornado not to get lucky.


People sit in Hulks that die when a Catalyst pilots gets bored...

The point was and still is that you can fend off most ganks without sacrificing more than one MLU. And that you can fend off any gank if you don't mine afk and watch out in d-scan/stay aligned.

Tanked Hulks don't just die in highsec, tanked Hulks with pilots that aren't asleep don't die at all in highsec. Just the way it is for any other ship out there.

Quote:

As I said, you are desperate, but you are not smart.


By now you should've realized that I'm not laughing with you...
TWHC Assistant
#167 - 2012-05-03 11:39:48 UTC
Caellach Marellus wrote:
24 chances at 1% is not 24%.

First they ignore you,
then they laugh about you,
then they fight you,
...

You do not really believe that for a pilot, who knows he does not have all skills at level V nor does the ganker have all skills at level V, to take such a stupid risk. And for what? To mine some ore and the chance to lose a 300m+ ISK ship?

I beg you, please, come to your senses.
Buzzy Warstl
Quantum Flux Foundry
#168 - 2012-05-03 11:40:08 UTC
TWHC Assistant wrote:
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
TWHC Assistant wrote:
Wuxi Wuxilla wrote:
Wrecking shot chance is 1%.

Per gun and per volley. Three volleys with 8 guns and the chance is 24% for one gun to do triple damage.

A Tornado then does not do uniform damage, but it will either do EM or thermal damage, which makes for another 10% difference.


No, it's 1% chance that gets rolled 24 times for one gun to do triple damage.

No, it does become a 24% chance for one gun to do triple damage when you have 8 and fire them 3 times.

You are desperate. Can you feel it?

21.34%, actually.

If you brought 100 guns the chance goes way up: 63.4%

Probablilities are multiplicative, not additive.

http://www.mud.co.uk/richard/hcds.htm Richard Bartle: Players who suit MUDs

Caellach Marellus
Stormcrows
#169 - 2012-05-03 11:44:24 UTC
TWHC Assistant wrote:
Caellach Marellus wrote:
24 chances at 1% is not 24%.

First they ignore you,
then they laugh about you,
then they fight you,
...


Flip a coin, you've a 50% chance it's going to come up heads.

Flip it again, you've a 50% chance it's going to come up heads. Not 100% because last time was tails or 0% because you scored heads before.


You have 24 shots. 24 chances at rolling 100/100, the odds on each individual roll do not increase or decrease just because you rolled a given value before.

Also Buzzy has the right math.

When your gut instincts tell you something is wrong, trust them. When your heart tells you something is right, ignore it, check with your brain first. Accept nothing, challenge everything.

TWHC Assistant
#170 - 2012-05-03 12:07:21 UTC  |  Edited by: TWHC Assistant
Buzzy Warstl wrote:
Probablilities are multiplicative, not additive.

I do not have a proper calculator at hand right now. A web-based one tells me that 1.01^24 is1.2697 or 26.97% ... 1-(0.99^24) = 0.21432 or 21.43% ... pick a number!

But you are right, I only cannot care about the exact number. The chance goes up.

It is a risky gamble, which is not worth taking.
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings
#171 - 2012-05-03 14:04:18 UTC
Popping in to say that the probability of a Tornado getting one wrecking shot with at least one gun in each cycle 1-(0.99^8) = 7.726%.

Getting at least one wrecking shot in 3 cycles is 1-(0.99^24) = 21.432%. But... when was the last time you saw 3 Tornados sacrificed in favor of one Hulk? If it requires that much, the gankers usually hop in destroyers and kill the untanked Hulk next door instead. They're not very picky on who it is so long as it's easy to kill and it's a Hulk.

Getting at least one wrecking shot in 100 shots is 1-(0.99^100) = 63.397%.

To give a perspective on exactly how low that is... 100 shots is 12-13 Tornados firing at once. Still, there is only a 63.4% chance for a relatively low increase in damage. A more familiar "chance" number that PvPers want to "rely" on is jamming chance. A Falcon jamming a Tornado has an 86% chance to jam, and that's not considered too hot. 63.4% is not that much, and that's 12 Tornados. In the scope of one or three Tornados, the chance for even a single wrecking shot (7.7% and 21.4%) is almost negligible.

And now back to your scheduled drivel and circlejerking.

Accidentally The Whole Frigate - For-newbies blog (currently on pause)

TWHC Assistant
#172 - 2012-05-03 14:54:06 UTC  |  Edited by: TWHC Assistant
Petrus Blackshell wrote:
And now back to your scheduled drivel and circlejerking.

The point is not that one wrecking shot by a single gun will pop the Hulk. It only makes for a 2% damage increase (correct me when I am wrong). It is that you have a randomness in the damage output and other unknown factors, which makes it a gamble. What is then true for a ganker is equally true for the Hulk pilot and it is a gamble for both. So you see gankers choosing to shoot weaker Hulks and Hulks choosing to stay docked rather than to go into the challenge. It is dumb to go into a challenge with a ship far more expensive than that of your opponent and where your opponents have the element of surprise on their side. The fight between gankers and Hulks is long lost. You only do not see it. What you see is not more than gankers wiping up the field, while you think you could still win the battle if only you fit for max eHP. No one can help you there.
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings
#173 - 2012-05-03 15:29:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Petrus Blackshell
TWHC Assistant wrote:
It is dumb to go into a challenge with a ship far more expensive than that of your opponent and where your opponents have the element of surprise on their side.

I have stated over and over and over that that is not true, and even listed step by step how to keep yourself safe from gankers a few posts back. Gankers do not use covert ops ships, therefore to an awake miner they always broadcast their approach. The tank only exists as a fallback in case you didn't happen to be paying attention. If you were paying attention, you should be able to get away without a hitch. The reason people prefer to gank Hulks is because their pilots never use the tools at their disposal: local, standings, directional scan, and the overview. Go try to gank PvEers in lowsec or nullsec, and 90% of the time they will get away from you because of those things. Not tank. Not ship price. Not CONCORD. Just paying attention.

Ed: Repeating my point again: not using the tools I listed above to stay safe, and relying on tank alone does not mean that the Hulk tank needs a buff. It just means that Hulk pilots that get ganked need to learn to play better.

A better argument for the buff is that a mere few destroyer hulls can kill a Hulk, but that's a result of the destroyer buff making them excellent at killing anything that doesn't shoot back at them rather than Hulks having inherently low HP. The same destroyers will utterly murder any recon cruiser, HAC, and even some battlecruisers, in addition to most frigate sized hulls. Destroyers may need another balancing pass, since 400-500 DPS with small guns is a little over the top, but I disagree that this also means Hulks need a HP buff.

Accidentally The Whole Frigate - For-newbies blog (currently on pause)

TWHC Assistant
#174 - 2012-05-03 16:09:18 UTC
Petrus Blackshell wrote:
A better argument for the buff is that a mere few destroyer hulls can kill a Hulk, but that's a result of the destroyer buff making them excellent at killing anything that doesn't shoot back at them rather than Hulks having inherently low HP. The same destroyers will utterly murder any recon cruiser, HAC, and even some battlecruisers, in addition to most frigate sized hulls. Destroyers may need another balancing pass, since 400-500 DPS with small guns is a little over the top, but I disagree that this also means Hulks need a HP buff.

No. Where do I say the Hulk needs an eHP buff? All I do is to take apart the argument of EFT warriors, who believe in the Hulk having a great tank. My argument still is that it needs a PG increase, not that CCP shall buff its eHP, or to make it align faster or to automatically warn of hostile ships or whatever. All I can see and argue for is that all mining ships lack PG terribly.
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings
#175 - 2012-05-03 16:18:34 UTC
TWHC Assistant wrote:
All I do is to take apart the argument of EFT warriors, who believe in the Hulk having a great tank.

The Hulk doesn't have a "great" tank, it has a "good enough" tank. Vengeances, Sacrileges, and Damnations have great tanks. It may need a light CPU and PG buff to be able to fit a T2 tank without stellar fitting skills. So far as destroyer suicide ganks, I'd rather see the Catalyst and Thrasher and how they compare with bigger ships looked at, rather than Hulks getting a LSE.

Accidentally The Whole Frigate - For-newbies blog (currently on pause)

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#176 - 2012-05-03 16:43:58 UTC
TWHC Assistant wrote:

No. Where do I say the Hulk needs an eHP buff? All I do is to take apart the argument of EFT warriors,

gonna go out on a limb here and suggest the guy getting owned at basic math isn't taking apart any arguments

the hulk isn't supposed to be invulnerable to ganks, deal with it

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#177 - 2012-05-03 16:45:13 UTC
TWHC Assistant wrote:

No. Where do I say the Hulk needs an eHP buff? All I do is to take apart the argument of EFT warriors, who believe in the Hulk having a great tank. My argument still is that it needs a PG increase, not that CCP shall buff its eHP, or to make it align faster or to automatically warn of hostile ships or whatever. All I can see and argue for is that all mining ships lack PG terribly.

please to be explaining the need for additional powergrid that is not simply adding more tanking mods

we would not wish to believe you were making a transparently dishonest argument about "not trying to add EHP" when you're trying to do exactly that

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#178 - 2012-05-03 16:49:07 UTC
like literally anything else you could use that pg for

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

TWHC Assistant
#179 - 2012-05-03 17:06:48 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
TWHC Assistant wrote:

No. Where do I say the Hulk needs an eHP buff? All I do is to take apart the argument of EFT warriors,

gonna go out on a limb here and suggest the guy getting owned at basic math isn't taking apart any arguments

the hulk isn't supposed to be invulnerable to ganks, deal with it

Goons... You cannot own someone for what they do not care for.

I studied mathematics at a university about 20 years ago. What do you think of that?! I just do not care for it any more.

You want to own me... You have no idea what you are going to get, kid.
TWHC Assistant
#180 - 2012-05-03 17:09:36 UTC  |  Edited by: TWHC Assistant
Weaselior wrote:
please to be explaining the need for additional powergrid that is not simply adding more tanking

The choice you have in fitting the Hulk and the mining ships in general are pretty thin. Giving them more PG allows for them to fit not only shield extenders, but you can fit ABs and MWDs, too.