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[BET] Mineral price bet: 500m to be won!

Author
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#1 - 2012-04-25 15:01:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Tekota
EDIT: Bet now fully taken and I can offer no more slots - now we wait till June!

EDIT 2: Bet lost :o( Update on page 2


Lots of talk lately about mineral prices, a lot of people nudging their position but few prepared to put their money (publically) where their mouth is.

A bet makes things altogether more interesting and perhaps a welcome change to "X will crash!" and "Y will reach the sky!" posts.


So, here it is.

I bet that two months from yesterday's patch (ie. on the 24th June):

  • The forge average price of Nocxium will be lower than it was on the 24th April patch day (951.47)
  • The forge average price of Pyerite will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (7.10)
  • The forge average price of Isogen will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (97.42)


To further sweeten the pot I'll say that my winning relies on an "and" condition (ie. I win if nocx goes down AND pye goes up AND iso goes up), wheras if only one or two of my predictions is proven correct I'll lose.

Now, I'm not quite as succesful as my facebook profile would have visitors believe so I'm going to limit this to ten individuals at 50m each. Happy to run this on space nerd e-honour so don't go sending money now, we'll settle up on the 24th June (if anyone considers my space nerd honour so lacking that I might welch on a bet just holler and I'll thow my stake at Shar or VV or someone).

Maths will follow below but basically I figured out something incredibly clever. This is dangerous as I'm liable to do something incredibly stupid (like, for example, bet the world 500m on my back-of-phone-bill maths) before I realise that what I initially thought was incredibly clever was actually incredibly stupid. My rough prediction are for nocxium to end up between 850 and 1050, pyerite to end up between 9 and 10, and isogen to end up between 95 and 115. In order of decreasing confidence: pyerite, isogen, nocxium.

Finally, never fly what you can't afford to lose, never invest what you can't afford to lose, and never gamble what you can't afford to lose.

Takers

Liberty Eternal
Durin Sarga
VaMei
Bath Sheeba
clixor
Lauren Hellfury (teh best hellfury)
Driftfire
Wyke Mossari
Aebe Amraen
Moto Akimoto
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#2 - 2012-04-25 15:11:14 UTC
My Guess is close to yours..

I think TRT will be around 7.55, PYR @ 8.45 , ISO @ 108

and refer to Akitas thread on "The Sky is the Limit, the Sky is Falling"

:)

Target : [email protected]
Liberty Eternal
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2012-04-25 15:55:15 UTC
Tekota wrote:
So, here it is.

I bet that two months from yesterday's patch (ie. on the 24th June):

  • The forge average price of Nocxium will be lower than it was on the 24th April patch day (951.47)
  • The forge average price of Pyerite will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (7.10)
  • The forge average price of Isogen will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (97.42)


I'm going to limit this to ten individuals at 50m each. Happy to run this on space nerd e-honour so don't go sending money now, we'll settle up on the 24th June (if anyone considers my space nerd honour so lacking that I might welch on a bet just holler and I'll thow my stake at Shar or VV or someone).
Any takers?


I'll take that bet. 50 mil it is Cool
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#4 - 2012-04-25 16:02:34 UTC
You, sir, have a bet.

9 more slots left peeps.
Durin Sarga
Lionhearted Investment Services and Planning
#5 - 2012-04-25 16:42:11 UTC
Eh. For 50M I'll take a slot.
VaMei
Meafi Corp
#6 - 2012-04-25 16:46:15 UTC
I'll take that bet.
Bath Sheeba
Another Success Story
#7 - 2012-04-25 17:05:25 UTC
I'll take that bet. 50m.
Block Ukx
Winnie Blues and VB Crew
#8 - 2012-04-25 17:18:24 UTC
Tekota wrote:
...

  • The forge average price of Nocxium will be lower than it was on the 24th April patch day (951.47)




You can do a similar bet by short selling Nocxium:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=95656&find=unread

Place your bet with a contract. Only 10M ISK per contract.


clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#9 - 2012-04-25 17:32:15 UTC
I'll take it as well.
Ms Bax
Union Of EVE
#10 - 2012-04-25 17:39:10 UTC
looks like tritanium is on the way down now. I sure hope you're right but I actually doubt it.

Hope you win.
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#11 - 2012-04-25 17:46:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Tekota
Block Ukx wrote:
You can do a similar bet by short selling Nocxium:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=95656&find=unread

Place your bet with a contract. Only 10M ISK per contract.


Indeed one can. Personally the reason I chose to bet this way are three fold:
1) I figure the result will be very close. If nocxium ends 0.01 isk lower than yesterday's price (and iso iso is 0.01 up, and pye is 0.01 up) I win. A 0.01isk short on nocxium however wouldn't be particularly profitable.
2) Opportunity costs of maintenance margin are not tied up, isk is won or lost on one day in the future.
3) Simplicity. I'll be the first to admit that it took me a couple of readings of your short system before I fully understood the mechanics. A bet format is quick and simple.


Meanwhile Durin Saga, VaMei, Bath Sheeba and Clixor bets added, five more slots left.
Lauren Hellfury
Full Pocket Aggro
#12 - 2012-04-25 17:59:07 UTC
Stick me in for one (and any left over if you get bored waiting for more bets)

Help rid New Eden of T2 BPOs: ** https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=62797 **The Full Pocket Aggro blog:  http://fullpocketaggro.blogspot.com/ **Now showing: **Margin Trading Scams

Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
#13 - 2012-04-25 18:07:27 UTC
Put me down for a bet
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#14 - 2012-04-25 18:14:03 UTC
LH & Driftfire added, 3 more slots remaining.
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#15 - 2012-04-25 18:34:58 UTC

I'll take that a punt on this.

MailDeadDrop
Archon Industries
#16 - 2012-04-25 18:36:00 UTC
Point of order: what definition of "average price" are you using?

MDD
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#17 - 2012-04-25 18:41:57 UTC
MailDeadDrop wrote:
Point of order: what definition of "average price" are you using?
MDD


The average price for the day in the forge region as shown in the table view of the price history in the market window as it's independently verifiable and the best we have of an "official" daily average. This will mean we won't know average price on the 24th June till after downtime on the 25th June.


Wyke Mossari added, 2 more slots remaining.
Aebe Amraen
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#18 - 2012-04-25 18:48:23 UTC
I'll take it.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#19 - 2012-04-25 20:13:59 UTC
I don't bet by principle but I think Nocx could go above your prediction because of inflation offsetting its drop. I'd have to slap down some analysis to know something more but that will have to wait till my PC is back from repair shop (next week).
Moto Akimoto
Tengu and Cash
#20 - 2012-04-25 20:32:36 UTC
I'll take the last one, Tekota. Light this puppy up. Big smile
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