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Nocxium analysis

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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#1 - 2012-04-23 00:55:19 UTC
I have been made aware of some people who are missing current analyses they could be interested in.
I put all of them in a thread with the very general title of "Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE" so casual readers will often miss the new analyses.

I am not changing the thread title since that is neither Google friendly nor EvE Search friendly and I'd have to change that thread OP all the time.

Therefore I have decided that when I post something that could be of general MD interest, like a current patch related analysis, I'll just change this stub post title and links to directly point to it.

Here's the analysis stated in the topic title.

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lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#2 - 2012-04-23 10:14:57 UTC
The graph shows nicely done manipulation with nocxium. It does not show, however, that price decreases before the price jumps were made deliberately by placing large stockpiles at lower prices so that other people sell their nocxium out.

Interesting is that some made huge stockpiles expecting that a miracle will happen on 24th and prices will jump much higher. However, nocxium stockpiles are huge and they can last for a long, long time. So I expect some of these people unloading their stockpile right after 24th and crashing nocxium prices for a long time. After all summer is coming with lower mineral prices as usual. Big smile
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#3 - 2012-04-23 12:34:49 UTC
No. The Price was being held down by the Pax Amaria.

On April 3, the Pax Amarria was changed to refine to Trit instead of Nocx.

Feel free to Google.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
Dramaticus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#4 - 2012-04-23 15:26:51 UTC
Its almost like you know nothing about the underlying mechanics of nocxium pricing.

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#5 - 2012-04-23 15:31:58 UTC
lafforet wrote:
The graph shows nicely done manipulation with nocxium. It does not show, however, that price decreases before the price jumps were made deliberately by placing large stockpiles at lower prices so that other people sell their nocxium out.

Interesting is that some made huge stockpiles expecting that a miracle will happen on 24th and prices will jump much higher. However, nocxium stockpiles are huge and they can last for a long, long time. So I expect some of these people unloading their stockpile right after 24th and crashing nocxium prices for a long time. After all summer is coming with lower mineral prices as usual. Big smile


Yes, graphs don't tell why price changed, just that price changed.
That's one of the beautiful features of price reading: you don't need to have an awesome knowledge of your market, who are the big guys to add to the contact list or to follow 0.0 politics and patch notes. Of course if you have such awesome knowledge you WILL perform like a pro. Notice the have, not the "you believe you have", which instantly makes you a small fry to suck dry.

By reading price, you will NOT perform like a pro, but you will perform competently and turn in a profit on any kind of liquid market, no previous knowledge at all is required.

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lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#6 - 2012-04-23 18:15:56 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
No. The Price was being held down by the Pax Amaria.

On April 3, the Pax Amarria was changed to refine to Trit instead of Nocx.

Feel free to Google.



Feel free to find out when temporarily Pax Amaria was removed from the market before it was changed to tritanium.
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#7 - 2012-04-23 19:48:04 UTC
i repeat please explain what parts of your "scientific analysis" were falsified by discovering pax amarria and how it actually impacted the prices

after all this is "scientific analysis" is it not
CCP Phantom
C C P
C C P Alliance
#8 - 2012-04-23 19:51:26 UTC
Off topic, trolling and spam posts removed. Please stay on topic and polite.

CCP Phantom - Senior Community Developer
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#9 - 2012-04-23 19:55:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Retar Aveymone wrote:
i repeat please explain what parts of your "scientific analysis" were falsified by discovering pax amarria and how it actually impacted the prices

after all this is "scientific analysis" is it not


Look better, there's a monthly resistance that is not there because of random. It's a bit shifted compared to the pure reprocess price because monthly bars (where monthly lines are drawn) are a composition result of lower time frames, their bodies tend to encase the maximum peaks of the lower time frames bars.

Edit:

Look at the weekly graph.

Look at the weekly price level 535.39.
The price level, placed "at eye glance" is 0.39 different than the reprocess value.

Since I did not recall about PAX Amarria (doing a dozen of analyses on request, I get crazy), the price reading method did the finding for me. How cool, eh? Somebody could have returned to EvE yesterday, not know about PAX Amarria at all yet he'd find price did something right there.

I repeat it again, price discounts the reasons why it's at its level both in the past and in the present. The reasons why is here or there do not matter.

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Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#10 - 2012-04-23 20:05:44 UTC
"i was unable to tell that a hard cap on price was different from an ordinary peak, look at how effective my method is"
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#11 - 2012-04-23 20:08:42 UTC
basically your method is so horribly flawed it can't pick up on one of the simplest, obvious, and important things that can occur to an eve item, a hard cap, while being able to look, think critically, and use the time you would instead be prancing naked around an altar looking for patterns in the smoke to go "hrmm the price bounces off this precise number repeatedly, despite the fact it should be above this: i wonder where the reprocessing bug is"
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#12 - 2012-04-23 20:09:47 UTC
Retar Aveymone wrote:
"i was unable to tell that a hard cap on price was different from an ordinary peak, look at how effective my method is"


Price levels are set on the body of the candle bars that form the swings. By definition of swing, they coincide with peaks so they catch peaks.

I don't know how hard is for you to understand it, the reason why price won't go above 535 is IRRELEVANT, the fact that it does not go above 535 is.

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Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#13 - 2012-04-23 20:12:35 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Retar Aveymone wrote:
"i was unable to tell that a hard cap on price was different from an ordinary peak, look at how effective my method is"


Price levels are set on the body of the candle bars that form the swings. By definition of swing, they coincide with peaks so they catch peaks.

I don't know how hard is for you to understand it, the reason why price won't go above 535 is IRRELEVANT, the fact that it does not go above 535 is.

this is meaningless gibberish used to try and obscure your lack of knowledge

that it did not go above 535 is completely different than it could not and you're trying to filibuster the argument when confronted with the stark reality your method is junk
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#14 - 2012-04-23 20:13:00 UTC
Retar Aveymone wrote:
basically your method is so horribly flawed it can't pick up on one of the simplest, obvious, and important things that can occur to an eve item, a hard cap, while being able to look, think critically, and use the time you would instead be prancing naked around an altar looking for patterns in the smoke to go "hrmm the price bounces off this precise number repeatedly, despite the fact it should be above this: i wonder where the reprocessing bug is"


Why should a trader be interested about why an item does not obey YOUR hype?
Your hype is the entrails reading, not my resistance level that just tells me price stays boxed below 535.

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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#15 - 2012-04-23 20:16:12 UTC
Retar Aveymone wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Retar Aveymone wrote:
"i was unable to tell that a hard cap on price was different from an ordinary peak, look at how effective my method is"


Price levels are set on the body of the candle bars that form the swings. By definition of swing, they coincide with peaks so they catch peaks.

I don't know how hard is for you to understand it, the reason why price won't go above 535 is IRRELEVANT, the fact that it does not go above 535 is.

this is meaningless gibberish used to try and obscure your lack of knowledge

that it did not go above 535 is completely different than it could not and you're trying to filibuster the argument when confronted with the stark reality your method is junk


Here's the catch: I can read 100 markets without ever having played EvE and could see 535 ceiling one of those 100 markets.

A technical trader does not care about the specific market itself, just about its parameters. He does not need to even try and find WHY something is like it is, it's just redundant waste of time.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2012-04-23 20:16:37 UTC
"you see, the price here did not go above 535 because the swings of the candle as the vapor from the entrails of the goat said it did not; this is useful information when looking into the past and applying meaningless gibberish to it"

you have a large meaningless vocabulary of ways to describe the past with absolutely zero predictive power; however powerful congitive biases cause you to literally not remember the 50% of completely failed predictions or rationalize them away (i was right just on the wrong timeframe) while taking full credit for the dumb luck successes

you're probably right now digging through old posts trying to find times you correctly called the coinflip
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#17 - 2012-04-23 20:18:43 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

Why should a trader be interested about why an item does not obey YOUR hype?
Your hype is the entrails reading, not my resistance level that just tells me price stays boxed below 535.

because my method (having a brain, allowing the brain cells to rub together) allowed me to determine that the price would always stay below 535 until pax was patched, allowed me to know that once pax became public it would be, and dump scads of money into it at 535

you, on the other hand, timed the length goats had sex for and decided that it was a "resistance level" which is a meaningless weasel term because it means that it hasn't gone above that yet but it could but it might not
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#18 - 2012-04-23 20:21:01 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
you, using only ta:

"oh look nocx has a very high demand causing it to repeatedly test a ceiling, i know the demand is high because it keeps testing this and doesn't turn down, yet it never goes over this very rigid point. oh well, there's no buy indicators, i guess i'll move on."


anyone else looking at the market: "huh, nocx obviously has high demand but has never gone more than 5-10% over an obviously rigid ceiling. im going to go find the item so i can profit on it!"

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#19 - 2012-04-23 20:21:42 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

A technical trader does not care about the specific market itself, just about its parameters. He does not need to even try and find WHY something is like it is, it's just redundant waste of time.

let us just glory in the fact that you're discussing a case where your method failed spectacularly, while mine allowed me to double my money risk-free over a few days, and your ability to evaluate your methods is so broken you think it was a success for you
Promiscuous Female
GBS Logistics and Fives Support
#20 - 2012-04-23 20:23:29 UTC
let me explain how pax amarria worked

http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=11585

You can buy a single unit of PA for 3,328 ISK. It refined into two (2) isogen and six (6) nocxium. Iso went for 80 isk, so that leaves us with 3168 isk. Divide that by 6 and you get a price of 528 isk/unit.

Pax Amarria can be acquired in literally infinite supply, which means that any time buys went above 535 or so (taxes/couriers factor into the slight bump), you could crush them with literal infinite supply.
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