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New Dev Blog: What is going on with mineral prices?

First post
Author
Mario MacGruber
State War Academy
Caldari State
#41 - 2012-04-22 04:56:27 UTC
What is up with the PNG files on this devblog...completely smashes Google chrome...
Zagdul
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#42 - 2012-04-22 06:49:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Zagdul
Larofeticus wrote:
Theory 1: "Mineral speculation in anticipation of drone alloy removal is driving a rise in prices for goods from which minerals are a primary component."
Theory 2: "Herp Derp Aggregate Demand!"

Distinguish between these two theories by comparing the price changes of a good which is very affected by mineral prices, such as T1 ships, with a good that is not primarily affected by mineral prices, such as learning implants or deadspace/non-lp store faction items.

The only economist on earth with access to the greatest economic experiment generator ever created, with the ability to collect completely accurate information on every step of production, and guy still just aggregates everything and phones it in. A real economist with this kind of access to Eve would have earned a nobel prize by now.


This, a thousand times over.

e:
Everyone has seen what's been happening to the market. We experience it on a daily basis.

You've basically regurgitated information it to us that is blatantly obvious and put a graph to it. It's pretty arrogant to think the player base is ignorant to more ~complex~ theories on economy. You mentioned at Fanfest that the playerbase is cunning and intelligent. I forget your exact words, however start treating us as such and please start communicating to us the things we look forward to hearing from you and concepts that are above a child's level of understanding.

You literally have a dream job for any economist.

Dual Pane idea: Click!

CCP Please Implement

Sardon Darkstar
Omnivores of Mediocrity
Omnivores
#43 - 2012-04-22 07:50:25 UTC
I'm mainly just worried for new players with zero isk to start with, and casual players with only one account. It will become increasingly difficult for them to afford ships to fly and replace once they blow up. Hisec ganks will result in more ragequits.
Fun for the ganker, but one less paying customer for CCP.

So CCP, I really hope you guys thought this out good and know what you are doing.

Also, this blog could have been a bit deeper like Zagdul said.
Vince Snetterton
#44 - 2012-04-22 08:18:41 UTC
Looking forward to the extremely quiet relaxation of attacking bots by CCP, say, by August, when they start seeing subs drop when people can't afford basic ships. The smart play would be to rescind the meta 0 removal of loot before it is even implemented, but CCP has shown time and time again they are not that bright.

I started a thread a month ago asking CCP to slow down on all these changes simultaneously.
No one apparently at CCP has any clue on what the eventual impact will be, and that is NOT a good thing, regardless of what null sec zealots and anarchists like CCP Soundwave says.

Oh, and for the winter release, CCP will also be implementing changes to protect high sec miners more.
They don't want to now, but they will have no choice, once they realize just what percentage of the low end minerals came from high sec. The meta 0 loot obliteration, plus the ease of ganking and griefing via the new war dec mechanic are going to choke that low end mineral supply even further. And the game will lose a lot of appeal when that happens.

I am betting on a 3-5% reduction in subs by September, and 10% by the winter, unless CCP implements major fixes to the mechanics they will be releasing with Inferno.

Of course, this destruction of a significant part of the game and player base is OK with the null sec dominated CSM, and their group of allies with CCP. So maybe the fixes that will be needed will not happen. But I am also thinking the marketing team may actually win this battle and reverse all the awful ideas within Inferno.
Blind Molechild
Corp435116841555354365346
#45 - 2012-04-22 08:21:45 UTC
Suicide OPs cancelled, ships too expensive, carebears win eve.GG.

P.S. QA your Dev Blog Posts before it breaks everybodies browser.
Louis deGuerre
The Dark Tribe
#46 - 2012-04-22 11:58:02 UTC
Morpheus Mishima wrote:
FIX HUGE IMAGES PLEASE!


Seriously, fix them. This is ridiculous.

ITTigerClawIK
Galactic Rangers
#47 - 2012-04-22 12:17:58 UTC
even thouhg most people seem to think that the increase in prices is a bad thing and everything is going to be "super expensive" i actually see things more as "returning to normal" as ship prices seem to be returning to around Exodus - Cold war Prices, which tbh i think is where they should have been all along.

i honestly think people have been spoiled with the super inexpensive prices for way to long and with the future rebalance of most of the Tech 1 ships starting with frigates and cruisers i think we can see alot more of these flown rather than the masses of battlecruisers and battleships as we see now which imho is the way i think it really should have been, i honestly miss the days when seeing a battleship was a fairly infrequent occourance and seeing organised mining opps in the belts was fairly common omongst the new and established corporations and alliances in high sec.
Buzzy Warstl
Quantum Flux Foundry
#48 - 2012-04-22 13:54:49 UTC
It is easy to mine up enough minerals to build your own frigates.
A bit more difficult as you go up in ship class until you reach the big battleships where "mining your own" just won't cut it.

And before one of you jokers comes in with "but minerals aren't free": neither is isk.
In either case it is a matter of how much time you have to play the game to get what you want out of it.

http://www.mud.co.uk/richard/hcds.htm Richard Bartle: Players who suit MUDs

Urgg Boolean
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#49 - 2012-04-22 14:08:30 UTC
Is this an attempt to bring real world realism to New Eden? I mean, the analogy between EvE's current economy and the real world economy is startling. And behind it all is government incompetence. The governments are doing ... something ... but does it have any correlation to fixing economic issues? Governments are monitoring, but are the variables too complex to truly understand, predict, and inevitably deal with ?

We really don't need the realism of a terrible economy in EvE; we get enough of that IRL ...
Lord Wickham
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#50 - 2012-04-22 17:11:10 UTC
"It started with changes in Mexallon due to increased demand for the production of the new Tier 3 battlecruisers. Figure 2 shows clearly the jump in Mexallon between November and December in 2011." quote from the devblog


this quote is a typical example of market analysists usings certain figures to project what they want. or what they think is the case.

why by that graph does ccp think tier 3 battlecruisers contributed to a sharp mexallon rise and not someone market manipulating on the back of tier 3 introduction? The primary use for tier 3's currently is ganking and long range fleet roams. in the first case lots of tier 3 BC's are lost and in the second scenario this is not usually the case. We also have to assume an over production of the BC at the beginning to supply an expectant demand.

none of these points were put forward in the case for the mexallon rise at the time of tier 3 production and in my opnion the wrong graphs were/are being used to calculate the price indices. Why do we not see volumes of mexallon anywhere? everyone who plays the market knows about market history manipulation and so the graphs can be screwed easily.

If we see quantities of mexallon before and after the tier 3 patch surely this would be a better indication of how tier 3 BC's affected the market and how much market manipulation was going on.


Until we start to see mineral volumes along side pricing indices you can't expect to deduce any reasoning behind the mexallon price spike.
Justice Comes
Doomheim
#51 - 2012-04-22 22:34:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Justice Comes
The first image/link seems broken, and the other 2 are what everyone else said (huge beyond belief).

Maybe the game devs should consult with the web staff when they want to communicate >.>

Most annoying thing of the week: You failed to dock/jump because you are cloaked (in your Deep Space Transport).

Alx Warlord
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#52 - 2012-04-22 23:55:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Alx Warlord
nice.... We now need stronger mining ship... To drop mineral prices....
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#53 - 2012-04-23 00:26:13 UTC
We're pretty close to where mineral values will be come July/August/September - if you look at things from supply side.

Veld 178 Scor 157 Pyro 229 Plag 156 Omb 109 Kern 166 Jasp 297 Hemo 344 Hedb 329
Gneiss 178 DarkO 304 Spod 127 Croc 389 Bist 381 Ark 458
Trit 5.91 Pye 7.02 Mex 51.21 Iso 98.16 Nocx 1026 Zyd 1832 Mega 3486 Morph 16055

Omb-Pyro ratio is 2.10. That ratio will tighten up over the next few months once HAG5 is over. The 2nd best to best ratio is 229/156 or 1.47, which is slightly above historical averages. That ratio will also narrow in Aug-Sep. Either Pyrox prices will fall slightly or the price of Scor/Plag have to rise a bit.

Zydrine is probably the under-priced mineral at only 1832.

Mineral price graphs are also pretty flat this week. HAG5 will kick that up slightly, but most of the coming effect will be a market adjustment as the drone minerals go away.
Zircon Dasher
#54 - 2012-04-23 03:54:12 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
HAG5 will kick that up slightly, but most of the coming effect will be a market adjustment as the drone minerals go away.


This, I think, is probably the most interesting bit. There is some inferential (and some anecdotal) information that implies that that, at least, some noticable portion of the drone minerals never actually worked thier way through normal market pathways. If this is the case, then a "nerf" to drone minerals is insignificant to overall prices. When you couple this with some of the other "nerfs" that are incoming, or have been hinted at, we might actually see enough decline in demand that population upticks will not be able to compensate for.

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.

Devore Sekk
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#55 - 2012-04-23 06:57:24 UTC
This is the kind of stuff I expect from Diagoras. Time for the good doctor to step it up.
Barbie D0ll
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#56 - 2012-04-23 07:04:19 UTC
Mario MacGruber wrote:
What is up with the PNG files on this devblog...completely smashes Google chrome...

EVE ONLINE SMASH PUNY BROWSER!!!
HURAAAAAAAAA!!!!
Annette Aumer
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#57 - 2012-04-23 08:05:01 UTC
*sigh* whats with all the CCP hate. Higher Mineral Prices means Mining becomes more lucrative and attractive which means more mining ops. And you all know what this means.

MORE Drunken Hulk bumping.

That is all.

o/ Fly safe
Neo Agricola
Gallente Federation
#58 - 2012-04-23 09:53:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Neo Agricola
Great Work CCP.

Thanks to you, those Miners get more isks.

but unfortunatly that drives inflation up through the roof top.

so basically, the miner dopples his income and the prices for T1 ships
(and everything else which is maily based on mostly minerals) will also be doppeled.
So the miner can still buy the same amount of Hurricanes for 1 h of mining.

so basically this means: the Prices for T1 Shipps will explode, T2/T3 will increase.
T1 Moduels will explode T2 will increase.
So for the future you have to rat 1 h in 0.0 for 1 BC instead of 1 BS, or you are forced to mine your own Minerals.
Good Work CCP this will defenetly lead to more small scale fights and those Supers / Titans Blobs will increase,
because nobody can affort BS anymore...

I hope everyone has put his/her ISKs into Materials / Ships whatever, as long as you dont have any isk on your account...

God bless hyperinflation.

Larofeticus wrote:
Theory 1: "Mineral speculation in anticipation of drone alloy removal is driving a rise in prices for goods from which minerals are a primary component."
Theory 2: "Herp Derp Aggregate Demand!"

Distinguish between these two theories by comparing the price changes of a good which is very affected by mineral prices, such as T1 ships, with a good that is not primarily affected by mineral prices, such as learning implants or deadspace/non-lp store faction items.

The only economist on earth with access to the greatest economic experiment generator ever created, with the ability to collect completely accurate information on every step of production, and guy still just aggregates everything and phones it in. A real economist with this kind of access to Eve would have earned a nobel prize by now.

This is the reason why I don't bother to read his "Def"blog anymore. They are Bull***t...

Where I come from we have a saying:
Only trust those statistic you faked yourself.

Annette Aumer wrote:
*sigh* whats with all the CCP hate. Higher Mineral Prices means Mining becomes more lucrative and attractive ...


Nope that dosn't mean Mining becomes "lucrative" it means prices are going to explode and those miners can not buy more T1 ships for there money.
They can buy more Implants or other NPC sold **** but everything else is going to get expensive.
So the real questions is: how many Mining Forman Links can you put in your Brain....

DISSONANCE is recruiting Members: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=706442#post706442 Black-Mark Alliance Recruitment: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=6710

Cyaron wars
Academia RED HOT Corporation
#59 - 2012-04-23 11:08:25 UTC
Do you really think that current mineral price is increased coz of T3 production? Are you that dumb? U think it has nothing to do with Drone nerf? CCP please stop being terrible. Most of above mentioned minerals were coming from drone regions. There were no miners that could compete with carebaers from drone regions. After you announced drone region nerf everyone started to stockpile minerals that were previously received from drones, I'm one of them. Miners will never be able to fulfill market demand on those minerals as well so high prices will remain. Ships will inflate even more due to slow mining process and high demand especially during war in 0.0. Once again, current demand has nothing to do with mineral price since it hasn't changed for 2-3 months (at least that drastically).
Neo Agricola
Gallente Federation
#60 - 2012-04-23 11:21:53 UTC
Cyaron wars wrote:
. Most of above mentioned minerals were coming from drone regions. There were no miners that could compete with carebaers from drone regions. .


As far as I can remember, somone said something about 40% of minerals are coming from the drone regions....
Guess what happens if 40% from the offer disappears...

Good bye Drakes for 34 Mil, Hello Drake for 100 -120 Mil...

DISSONANCE is recruiting Members: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=706442#post706442 Black-Mark Alliance Recruitment: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=6710