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New Dev Blog: What is going on with mineral prices?

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Adunh Slavy
#21 - 2012-04-21 17:22:26 UTC
Is the GUP derived from completed manufacturing jobs and ISK price at time of job delivery/completion or what happens to be on the market?

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Camios
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#22 - 2012-04-21 18:03:21 UTC

  1. I like the fact that now mining makes sense;
  2. I like that mining returns to be the key activity in generating value in this game; and I hope to see giant mining ops with escort.
  3. I hope this thing lasts, but I fear it's partly overshooting by market speculation.
Spc One
The Chodak
Void Alliance
#23 - 2012-04-21 18:05:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Spc One
Stupid changes.

1. t-1 stuff will become super expensive.
2. Because of this less pvp will occur.
3. Less pvp, less ships lost, less ships made.

Big smile
Camios
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#24 - 2012-04-21 18:08:32 UTC
Spc One wrote:
Stupid changes.

1. t-1 stuff will become super expensive.
2. Because of this less pvp will occur.
3. Less pvp, less ships lost, less ships made.

Big smile


Instead I see people going for cheaper ships, except the ones who also mine or play the market with success. Enjoy your rifter
Damion Rayne
Panoptic
#25 - 2012-04-21 18:23:57 UTC
BigCountry wrote:
I like how you also didnt mention the fact that there has been a civil war in the Drone Regions for the past 4 months .... Im sorry but yet again the devs take credit for stuff they accidently happened on .. Yes almost 99% of the mineral prices for low ends is a result of the civil war, which is a good indicator of what is going to happen when alloys are removed from the drone regions except it will be worse after patch. The civil war is also a reason behind the rise in high end min prices.. becuase basically you have several regions where the players living there are not able to get out and mine the hidden sov belts...which is the only thing that has truly hurt the high end market.. As more people start to repopulate the drone regions now that the civil war is over.. high end prices are gonna start dropping .... And after the patch as people accustomed to living a certain lifestyle in EVE start needing to jump trit out to 0.0 , you are gonna see huge demands for trit without a adequate supply.. therefore trit is going to continue to rise..... Lets see if CCP is patting themselves on the back in 2 months when trit is 12+ ISK a unit and battleships are running 400mil+


Let me say the same thing that was said before..

You vastly overestimate your importance...your arrogance is only matched by the Mittani and we all know what happened to mittens.

ROA
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#26 - 2012-04-21 18:38:19 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
After looking at the Dr E's 3rd graph & seeing a negitive slope instead of a positive slope which he seems to be implying I'm confused:
"Figure 3: Monthly price changes in Tech 1 ships from January 2010 to March 2012. Current price increases are similar to the Incursion price increase in early 2011. "

Looking at the graph ( http://cdn1.eveonline.com/community/devblog/2012/Escalationf3.png ) it seems to contradict what Dr E writes: I see a peak of 6% in DEC 2010 which sharply downturns during Jan-APR 2011 & actually starts deflating for a bit.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Larofeticus
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#27 - 2012-04-21 18:38:50 UTC
Theory 1: "Mineral speculation in anticipation of drone alloy removal is driving a rise in prices for goods from which minerals are a primary component."
Theory 2: "Herp Derp Aggregate Demand!"

Distinguish between these two theories by comparing the price changes of a good which is very affected by mineral prices, such as T1 ships, with a good that is not primarily affected by mineral prices, such as learning implants or deadspace/non-lp store faction items.

The only economist on earth with access to the greatest economic experiment generator ever created, with the ability to collect completely accurate information on every step of production, and guy still just aggregates everything and phones it in. A real economist with this kind of access to Eve would have earned a nobel prize by now.
Rascal deJascal
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2012-04-21 18:53:45 UTC
Looks like CCP may repeat the fiasco of last summer, in a new way.

Eve is a complex system, why adjust so many factors at once? To reach a new equilibrium screwed up in a different way?
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#29 - 2012-04-21 19:14:35 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Rascal deJascal wrote:
Looks like CCP may repeat the fiasco of last summer, in a new way.

Eve is a complex system, why adjust so many factors at once? To reach a new equilibrium screwed up in a different way?



I disagree & think these changes will be "fun" even though they'll be staggering ( especially to newbies that won't be able to afford even mediocre BS's for a considerable time ): these changes will be managable eventhough be a big shake up of the sandbox/ant farm ( everywhere but in Wormhole space where's thier nerf? ) will add some spice. Expect huge upheavals & near hyperinflation for a month to two ( I bet the graph when extended for April for T1 ships inflation will exceed 10% ( I predict at least 15% ))...

TL;DR: I thinks an ESCLATION of inflation will create a Market INFERNO Twisted
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Tom W4tson
Backup Squad II
#30 - 2012-04-21 20:01:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Tom W4tson
CCP Dr.EyjoG - this dev blog is very poor and i dont see any point WHY you wanted to write about this stuff while every active player knows - prices are rising. Eureka!

Saying "Good (market) hunting!" is a joke, right?

Please tell your friends in CCP we need dev blogs about
- new modules
- FW
- game mechanic changes
- graphic updates
- ship rebalance
- improvments

etc etc..... sorry, at last do better next time, because this stuff is just not intresting at all and ppl are waiting for some serious info about game changes.
Savage Creampuff
Vivid Entertainment Group
#31 - 2012-04-21 20:07:09 UTC
at least i don't have to mine for a month in a cruiser to get my first battleship. will be tough on the new guys but now we have mining barges and stuff. will improve corp team building i think
bbl, going to buy zydrine
Yulinki Atavuli
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#32 - 2012-04-21 20:25:47 UTC
Oohhhh Charts!! yummy ;)
Fish Hunter
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#33 - 2012-04-21 21:02:18 UTC
No mention of:
drone compound change - a while ago maybe before you set your index
bot bannings
DRF broke up like someone above said
NC. and Goons going at it for almost a year now.
Incursion runners producing no minerals unlike mission looting or ratting.
Hulkageddon - you said speculation so i guess this counts.
BensBig
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#34 - 2012-04-21 21:02:46 UTC
It was pretty apparent that something had to be adjusted in Eve for awhile now. While its idiotic of them to have waited this long to fix the mineral problems, this i probably the best path to rebalance mining and shock players into adjusting how they play.
1. CCP did their natural thing, and didnt consider what impact some of their changes would have in the future. Let me give you a hint or maybe a forehead tattoo so you can remember it - If it is possible for Eve player/players to manipulate game mechanics to their advantage, then ALWAYS assume they will

2. CCP then did exactly the opposite of what they should have done. They allowed Supercap production in any 0.0 system with a small additional Sov bill.

3. They rebalanced drone alloys from giving large amounts of highends to large amounts of lowends. While also allowing identical hidden belts in any 0.0 system that are full of highends. So just to be clear...........They gave the drone regions the ability to construct all tech 1 ships including Moms and Titans without ever leaving their system if they wanted. Im not gonna do the math for this but 1 pilot in a carrier or mom could run anomalies and get all the necessary mins to build a thanatos every single day!!! Now Im no expert at mining but Im pretty sure a single Hulk pilot cannot come anywhere close to that


I love to bash on CCP devs and they absolutely are to blame for this current situation existing and then not fixing it sooner, but at least they finally came up with something that might work. Alright Im out of here, got alloys to collect before CCP commences with OPERATION DRONE SALADTOSSING
Extractor Bill
Hynix Galactic Industry
#35 - 2012-04-21 22:39:29 UTC
IF we are taking economics we need to also review the changes in money supply that occurred in the same periods.

Remember that the efficiency of high sec incursions in making isk caused an increase in general income during that same period. When combined with the aforementioned general increases in demand if makes for a significant increase in inflation during this time period.

These prices are likely to increase significantly in the short term due to several major factors including permanent structural changes, and temporary event related changes.

Burn Jita shortly followed by Hulkageddon will most certainly cause a significant spike in overall prices due to the market disruptions and reduced competition as no central hub will appear during this period significant to replace Jita. The result will be a temporary spike in prices until a week or two after these events elapse and prices normalize as the supply meets demand again in Jita.


In the more permanent long term forecast with changes in loot drops and the drone regions the supply of raw minerals will be significantly reduced. This will cause another temporary increase in mineral prices and drive inflation until the mining trade rebuilds to the point where it can make up for the loss in supply from those sources. This spike in prices should eventually subside but is likely to remain higher than normal pricing levels until the changes in mining hinted at fanfest materialize.

The buying power of 1 isk is likely to be diminished significantly over the long term, and dramatically but temporary over the short term as a result.
Skippermonkey
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#36 - 2012-04-22 00:43:18 UTC
I'm not even sure why CCP hires the Dr.

What DO you do?

COME AT ME BRO

I'LL JUST BE DOCKED IN THIS STATION
El Geo
Warcrows
Sedition.
#37 - 2012-04-22 01:50:48 UTC
everything will go up about 60% and then after hulkaggedon reduce price at least 40% by xmas the prices would have settled back to 20% more of what they werent last year, following a rise of 10% then a drop of 5% with drones adding less then 10% isk income making mining 60% of the total 80% income, as you can see 75% of my math is accurate to 25%

CDIA Based overlay resource for After Effects 6

Eve pathfinders Youtube
Luba Cibre
Global Song Setup
#38 - 2012-04-22 02:14:16 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Spitfire
Please mind your language. Spitfire

"Nothing essential happens in the absence of noise." 
Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#39 - 2012-04-22 02:19:29 UTC
What happened to Mittens? I've been out of the loop.

Also I've been told to disapprove what this thread is about so without reading the dev blog I say nay!!!!

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny
Andrea Griffin
#40 - 2012-04-22 03:56:56 UTC
Camios wrote:
Instead I see people going for cheaper ships, except the ones who also mine or play the market with success. Enjoy your rifter
I also see more people using T2 ships. The bulk of the T2 ship costs isn't in minerals - so as mineral prices rise, the gap in price between T1 and T2 will become smaller.

AFs in particular. The performance for the cost was good before and will be even better soon.

CCP Sreegs is my favorite developer.