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Dr E's DEV blog & Figure 3 comment
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DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#1 - 2012-04-21 18:14:33 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
http://community.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&nbid=28612

After looking at the graph & seeing a negitive slope instead of a positive slope he seems to be implying I'm confused:
"Figure 3: Monthly price changes in Tech 1 ships from January 2010 to March 2012. Current price increases are similar to the Incursion price increase in early 2011. "

Looking at the graph ( http://cdn1.eveonline.com/community/devblog/2012/Escalationf3.png ) it seems to contradict what Dr E writes: I see a peak of 6% in DEC 2010 which sharply downturns during Jan-APR 2011 & actually starts deflating for a bit.

Current T1 ship inflation is ~8% in the graph & in Jan 2011 was 6 to 5% (-3% in June (mid)2011 ).
I bet you a billion ISK if the graph is published for April we'll see 10%+ ( and I think closer to 15%+ and may still be conservative)


EDIT: After looking at my notes December was a sort of pre-Incursion patch & the actual Incursion sites began invadinging in a patch in Janurary. So there is a leadup there for a month which has some simularities but Escalation has an immediate demand punch (mineral faucet removal & ISK faucet introduction ) with the removal of Drone minerals which the intro of Incursions ISK faucet didn't have until the farming agreements kicked in. I haven't including the loot mineral faucet removal into my thinking really & many here seem to think that will be huge also.

OK after the apparant contradiction in words from the graph whcih confused me I'm going to add my 0.02 ISK:

With the wave of BOT BANs, removal of drone poo, and Hulkageddon/Burn Jita I can't foresee any T1 ship price drops like we saw in mid 2011 unless the current hoarding/speculating is indeed astronomical.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#2 - 2012-04-21 18:19:31 UTC
He doesn't say the price will drop. He says there will be an impact on the price. Impacts can go up as well as down.

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#3 - 2012-04-21 18:37:41 UTC
Indeed, it just says "impacting the price". That means no particular direction.

Nothing to be confused about.

Nothing to see here.

Move along. Move along. Cross now. Cross now.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#4 - 2012-04-21 18:40:40 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
Indeed, it just says "impacting the price". That means no particular direction.

Nothing to be confused about.

Nothing to see here.

Move along. Move along. Cross now. Cross now.


No he said in JAN 2011 there was a price increase simular to what there is today and I see the opposite. My speculations about the future are an addition
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#5 - 2012-04-21 18:49:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Krixtal Icefluxor
DarthNefarius wrote:


No he said in JAN 2011 there was a price increase simular to what there is today and I see the opposite. My speculations about the future are an addition


OK. I stared REAL hard at it.

Indeed the graph downturns right at the Jan 2011 marker, after heading up beginning in September 2010.

The prices probably went up until the date of "Jan 3" or something early, so it appears to be going down for ALL of January.

Dr. E probably typed "Jan", as at least those few days were covered, before it started tanking again for the remainder of January.

What you are seeing is the result of mass speculation back then in Sept 2010 when the Nocxium requirements for the new Noctis ship were revealed.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#6 - 2012-04-21 18:53:56 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
I can't foresee any T1 ship price drops like we saw in mid 2011 unless......


......CCP decides to give "Incarna" another go ! Lol

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#7 - 2012-04-21 19:19:31 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
DarthNefarius wrote:
I can't foresee any T1 ship price drops like we saw in mid 2011 unless......


......CCP decides to give "Incarna" another go ! Lol



lol agreed
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#8 - 2012-04-21 21:35:10 UTC
Now, taken from my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE, look at this post, and in particular to this recent picture.

See anything in common?

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Chwarisma Sarum
Sosarir Storm Tech
#9 - 2012-04-22 05:05:12 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:


Indeed the graph downturns right at the Jan 2011 marker, after heading up beginning in September 2010.
The prices probably went up until the date of "Jan 3" or something early, so it appears to be going down for ALL of January.


No, according to Figure 3 the priced did go up between Sept / Oct 10 and Apr / May 11. And price changes of Jan 11 and March 12 are similar - at least if you call +5% vs. +8% similar.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#10 - 2012-04-22 17:25:47 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Now, taken from my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE, look at this post, and in particular to this recent picture.

See anything in common?


I looked at your white papers & while I see how this could be useful & hold true for short term trades & flips ( daytrading ) around double bottoms in an inflationary period it doesn't help in longer term predictions. During a defaltioary period ( which Eve seems to always have around summertime ) furthermore you'd see loses I think. TBH I think your system will work this summer because the usual sumertime deflation is going to run up against the mineral demand crisis (shortage) so it'll work well IMHO until the belt mining expanision & DUST creates a period of non inflationary pressures.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#11 - 2012-04-22 18:03:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Krixtal Icefluxor
Chwarisma Sarum wrote:
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:


Indeed the graph downturns right at the Jan 2011 marker, after heading up beginning in September 2010.
The prices probably went up until the date of "Jan 3" or something early, so it appears to be going down for ALL of January.


No, according to Figure 3 the priced did go up between Sept / Oct 10 and Apr / May 11. And price changes of Jan 11 and March 12 are similar - at least if you call +5% vs. +8% similar.



I'm not going to dispute my own eyes. Take it up with another sucker.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#12 - 2012-04-22 19:16:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Lauren Hellfury
Which simply shows that the rate of increase slowed, all the datum are positive % values.

lrn2graph


edit:- Is there anything you are competent at wrt Eve?

Help rid New Eden of T2 BPOs: ** https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=62797 **The Full Pocket Aggro blog:  http://fullpocketaggro.blogspot.com/ **Now showing: **Margin Trading Scams
Claire Voyant
#13 - 2012-04-22 20:19:22 UTC
Guys, this is how it works: When the % change is positive, prices are going up. When the % change is negative (below that black line) prices are falling. Now stop wasting our time.
Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#14 - 2012-04-22 20:38:41 UTC
For the hard of thinking I decided it might be an idea to give them a graph that they can comprehend. All figures used were rough eyeballs from the approximate center of each month and the assumed base price was set at the value as of the end of Dec-09

Vertical axis is % price of base price and horizontal axis is time. In this version of fig 3 of the blog the line tracks the absolute price rather than the change in price so........ dum duh dah! If the line is going up then ship prices are going up and if the line is going down then ship prices are doing likewise.



http://eve-files.com/dl/253898

Help rid New Eden of T2 BPOs: ** https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=62797 **The Full Pocket Aggro blog:  http://fullpocketaggro.blogspot.com/ **Now showing: **Margin Trading Scams
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#15 - 2012-04-22 21:24:59 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Claire Voyant wrote:
Guys, this is how it works: When the % change is positive, prices are going up. When the % change is negative (below that black line) prices are falling. Now stop wasting our time.


The rate of change ( slopes ) though are telling about the impacts. When April & mays inflationary affects on this chart appear I bet we're not going to see a negitive slope. I think the rate of inflation & when we see an inflection point where we do in Dr E's graph vs Lauren Hellfury's will show us when the market is settling down
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Claire Voyant
#16 - 2012-04-23 00:12:29 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Guys, this is how it works: When the % change is positive, prices are going up. When the % change is negative (below that black line) prices are falling. Now stop wasting our time.


The rate of change ( slopes ) though are telling about the impacts. When April & mays inflationary affects on this chart appear I bet we're not going to see a negitive slope. I think the rate of inflation & when we see an inflection point where we do in Dr E's graph vs Lauren Hellfury's will show us when the market is settling down

So you think the amount of increase from April to May will be larger than the increase from March to April? Would you care to wager a sizable sum of isk on this?
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#17 - 2012-04-23 01:03:38 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
DarthNefarius wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Guys, this is how it works: When the % change is positive, prices are going up. When the % change is negative (below that black line) prices are falling. Now stop wasting our time.


The rate of change ( slopes ) though are telling about the impacts. When April & mays inflationary affects on this chart appear I bet we're not going to see a negitive slope. I think the rate of inflation & when we see an inflection point where we do in Dr E's graph vs Lauren Hellfury's will show us when the market is settling down

So you think the amount of increase from April to May will be larger than the increase from March to April? Would you care to wager a sizable sum of isk on this?


OK 100 million ISK. Figure 3 chart prices
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'