Market Discussions

If you have troubles finding Pyro, run level 2 security missions. Several of them have a decent amount of it in them.
http://eve-survival.org/wikka.php?wakka=MiningInMissions

This even works in regions that do not have natural Pyro in them.

A new-ish Level I Security Mission called "Fair Play (Parts 1-5)" has, weirdly EIGHT Orcas of Condenced Veld, Veld, Pyrox, and Rich Plag. Part 3 has 4 Orcas of Veld, Plag, and Pyrox.

Confirmed for Ammatar and Gallente Empire Corps so far.

Thanks for the New Industrial Buff called Inferno, CCP !

In other news, innocent passerby in Market Discussions were injured by a hail of shrapnel as a result of furious purse-swinging in a Nocxium market manipulation thread. Early Sisters of Eve reports list 3 dead, 14 injured, and 2 missing as of this time. Authorities issued a statement of "Calm down ladies."

You make an assumption that hisec ores "must" track each other in price, without providing any indication of what mechanism might drive it. You then indicate that miners follow the most valuable ore, and suggest that if one particular ore becomes too valuable … magic happens and the other ores become more valuable too? miners will stop mining the most incredibly overvalued ore? Or what?

If Nocxium does indeed become the T1 bottleneck, the value of Pyrox will rise significantly. When the value of Pyrox rises significantly, more of it will be mined. When more Pyrox is mined for Nocxium, there will be more Tritanium and Mexallon on the market. Thus the only ores that will not be depressed in value by Pyrox mining are Scordite, Omber and Kernite. If "everyone" mines Pyrox, it might even turn out to be the case that Omber becomes worth mining. But "everyone" isn't already mining Pyrox and Veld, there are already people mining Omber.

Historically the hisec ores have tracked each other relatively well, but that is due to demand for minerals rather than some magic about the amount of ore being mined.

It turns out that there are actually more people in my usual mining grounds. Today I actually had to mine plain Pyrox because all the Solid and Viscous had been mined out! So BRN on the ore value spreadsheet certainly seems to be the driving factor: that first "1" turning into a "2" is enough to make people consider mining.

In the meantime I'll cling to the vain hope that the current price of Nocxium is being depressed by people offloading "stockpiles". This while I have more Nocxium for sale on the market than I usually consume in a month, and I'm daily adding more to that collection.

As Scrapyard Bob above shows, history has shown that hisec ores track eachother fairly well (although admittedly at a slower rate of adjustment than I have previously implied), the mechanism that drives it being miners hunting for the best price. Omber & Kernite have always been a little fruity and I generally put part of that down to their value being partially realised in "Materials for War" storyline missions and partially by something being a little out in overall Isogen consumption.



Not quite, miners will stop mining the undervalued ore. It's not magic but simply miners moving to the most valued ore and leaving the undervalued ores behind - when undervalued ores are left alone their value rises as the supply/demand equalises.



You're definitely on the right track here - an oversupply of a mineral will result in a depression for that mineral - the ores that contain that mineral will then depress until miners are not keen on mining that ore; if the oversupply of the specified mineral continues then the depressed ores will start seeing an undersupply of the other minerals contained within said ore - undersupply of these other minerals then raises their price until the value of the specified ore as a whole is once again attractive to miners who start rectifying the supply.

Trit/veld is kind of a special case because veld only contains trit. If folks move from mining veld to pyrox it won't result in an oversupply of trit but an undersupply, pyrox containing less than a third of the trit of veld. Switch from veld to pyrox and we're mining a lot less trit, more mex, more nocx. Switch from scord to pyrox and we're mining a lot less trit, a lot less pye, more mex, more nocx. Switch from plag to pyrox and we're mining a bit more trit, a lot less pye, about half as much mex, more nocx. This is why I stated earlier in the thread that if nocx goes up further then the natural result will be one of two scenarios - either trit will also go up or mex will go down. We've already seen mex starting to dip over the last week or so.

Finally not "everyone" has to do something for it to have an effect. Only a slice of miners need move (finger in the air guess, let's say 10%) - if 10% switch ores to follow the best prices then over a period of days and weeks that cumulative 10% over or undersupply starts to affect prices until every hi sec miner finds their ore of choice roughly equalised in price.



Indeed it's all about supply demand and most definitely nothing to do with magic. The demand for minerals determines the price of ores and the price of ores determines the supply miners provide. If the price of one ore becomes too low then miners won't mine it, supply will dwindle and dwindling supply = rising price, until eventually supply/demand evens out and the given ore is once again reasonably in line with others.


As a final thought, perhaps consider all hi sec mining to be soft capped - hi sec mining is unlikely to break the isk/hour achievable by L4 mission running. What the isk/hour of L4 mission running is is an estimate you'll have to make for yourself, people claim 80m+ but I suspect the majority of "amateur" mission runners who don't really pay attention to LP values or blitzing typically pull far less, maybe 25-30m per hour tops. Consider hi sec mining capped at this level because veritable hordes of 'bears will switch from L4 missions to mining should it become profitable to do so.

If the income achievable in hi sec mining is "capped" at say 30m isk per hour then that means pyrox too is capped at 30m isk per hour. If it turns out that pyrox in high sec doesn't provide sufficient nocx quantities and the price of nocx is determined by null sec mining (+ other sources as highlighted in this thread) then the price of nocx could well rise further - but if the price of nocx rises further and the price of pyrox is "capped" then it follows that other hi sec minerals *must* change as a result of under/oversupply.

Looks like CCP's ISK nerf is going well.

If you're talking of the figures Bob posted in post 32 then the prices of the ores themselves are not really the relevant part but rather the ratio between them. Those sort of ratios have survived the years, they'd have been about the same when trit was at 2.5isk and nocxium was at 90isk and they'd have been about the same before the drone regions even existed.

If the demand for nocxium remains constant whilst the supply drops then it's safe to say that the demand for trit and mex (and pyerite) will also remain constant. Therefore if people stop mining veld and start hitting pyroxes then we start undersupplying trit (hence a price rise of trit) and / or oversupply mex with a corresponding drop in the price of mex.

What Bob's figures above show is that the relative values of highsec ores remain fairly constant - mining in high-sec will always earn you, within 20% or so either side and with a bit of lag, X isk per hour, regardless of what highsec ore you mine. Now X is going up. But X is "capped" in high sec quite neatly by other high sec isk making activities, notably L4 missions. This doesn't necessarily stop nocx running away into the stratosphere if it's supply can't be met in high sec and it's price is ultimately determined by null sec miners who will only work for Y isk per hour, whilst better isk making activities, or more fun activities, or less logistically challenging activities are available to them - but if nocx does run away into the stratosphere that won't stop the value of X being capped and therefore we see hi sec dwellers ditching L4 missions or whatever to take up mining pyroxes, resulting in an oversupply of mex.



There I'm ill advised to comment, knowing rather little about null sec operations, but as a short opener I'd say mining in null becomes attractive once it's isk/hour starts to look attractive alongside other null sec isk making activities like anoms / belt ratting etc. The picture is further muddied by extra logistical hurdles, SOV industry upgrades, system and regional shortages of particular ores, and as you infer, PVP duties.



Here we can't really rely on maths but have to predict CCP's actions which is naturally always going to result in far shakier predictions; but my hunch is that they've been introducing new missions quite recently with ore available, so I doubt that they'll reverse recent activity just yet. Other reason being that mission mining requires effort - not a whole lot of effort I'll grant you but we're talking miners here - they're only recently (with rise in gankage) coming round to the idea that they need to check their screen more than once every three minutes. Plus if memory serves, most mission belts tend to be quite spread out and often require a bit of slowboating around whereas an orca boosted hulk normally has sufficient radius to hit almost all, if not all, of a regular roid belt without moving.

The price now is an estimate of the consequences of the upcomming changes, but this price isn't accurate. There is an estimate that 50% of the Nocxium is from the Drone regions. Even when highsec miners mining Pyroxeres only, this mineral has just 1% nocxium. 0.0 miners will earn more with ABC so there is no easy way to replace the huge amounts of Nocxium from the Drone regions. Because of Pyroxeres isn't avialable in all high sec regions, they would be concentrations of mining ships in some systems. This is simply a higher risk for miners to be blown up. Many of them prefer a more secure approach and mining other minerals in less frequented systems.

When we are thinking of the Hulkageddon and the Burn Jita project, one thing is sure, prices will be going up for a short time through the ceiling. My estimate is a price of 1200ISK for Nocxium, because then it's getting more attractive for existing 0.0 miners (Hemorphite).

Because of anomalies give more income than a single Hulk the amount of Zydrine from 0.0 will not raise in a short term. I see a price like in 2006 of 2500-3000ISK for Zydrine.

The situation is characterized by a demand for miners in 0.0 and a low avialability of Nocxium in HighSec. In the long term, we will see more miners in 0.0 from players with multiaccount mostly.

That's my read on the mission ore in mission pockets. I don't see CCP changing them. Only about 1/3 or 1/2 of the missions have ore that can be mined. Some of them (Blockade) the ore is booby-trapped. Some of them the total amount available is only 20-40k m3. Most of them, the ore is 30-60km past the warp-in point, so you have to slow-boat

I think, if CCP were to do anything - it should be to boost the ore amounts in grav sites. Making the grav sites bigger would act as a safety valve of sorts.

There is a huge amount of minerals in 0.0 but no miners, because something else gives more ISK