Market Discussions

I dont think its any secret that the cost of t1 hulls has increased dramatically in the last few weeks. In my research people dont seem to be sure, quoting CCP's crackdown on bots, speculators hoarding minerals for Inferno, the somewhat-recent increase in high-sec suicide ganking, etc. The purpose of this post is to determine what the most likely causes are, so that people can have a better idea of when t1 hull prices will stabilize.

they will stablize as soon as one of the following happens. 1) as someone overspeculates like crazy, panics, and ends up loosing a lot of plexes worth of isk from trading. Maybe nuking someone's corp wallet along with that. 2) a lot of industrialist get motivated to flood the market with over producing and capitalize on the high prices until they begin to decline. Increasing the supply. 3) people get less excited about eve's future so they don't play as much, and thus don't get blown up as much leading to a reduction in demand. Though the promised, and current changes are leading to an expectation that the next slump won't be as big as the last slump in prices, the history of market prices is very-very seasonal, and if we are currently at a price-peak (which I think we have to be at simply because I don't think I've seen prices this high on average since Trinity), than the next price-slump will be here well before next x-mas when people are taking money they are spending on plex and are instead buying presents for loved ones. The eve market seems to have moodswings, and right now it's excited. So, just give it some time, it will get boring again. I've already sold just about everything I plan on trading, and will just sit on my isk until better buy opportunities present themselves. The worst thing that could happen to me for playing it safe is that inflation goes well beyond what it is now, and I miss a turn waiting for enoug time to pass to see where the new bottom is--because there is always a bottom to the market regardless of botting. (the problem with botting is that the bottom was just too damn low.)

CCP propagandha imo, or halftruths.

1. Crucible may be more popular than incarna, but average online players are about the same (or just a slight increase)
2. Player base may have increased, but those players are not dedicated players (yet, see 1 also)
3. Ofcourse SP is going to increase overall, but OP was talking about T1 hulls. T2 hulls follow T1 for a certain degree
4. Let's believe CCP on this fact.
5. It's logical players (who care about iskies) are going after solid assets instead of isk. But that's a result of the inflation and not the main cause

Bottom line is that PLEX have increased from ~320 to ~500. If just looking at PLEX than inflation is not 2%.

If mining was as profitable as mission running, you can be sure prices will drop like a rock. Also this expansion is very unusual, almost extreme, in that it removes two major sources of minerals and does nothing to the ISK faucet. That’s a recipe for major inflation!

Johnny[/quote]Bottom line is that PLEX have increased from ~320 to ~500. If just looking at PLEX than inflation is not 2%.[/quote]


Plex prices are a whole different ball of wax. Prices on plex started increasing with fanfest and being able to buy fanfest tickets with plex. After that we started to see a small decline in price but the announcement of plexes for gfx cards rocketed demand to a new high for a shot period of time. This was CCP's attempt at pulling a large amount of ISK out of the game in a short timeframe (not a bad idea imho).

http://www.evemarketeer.com/item/info/29668#2


Vexx

@OP. I expect that what we’re seeing today isn’t actually inflation; rather it’s speculation in anticipation of the new norm that we’re pretty sure is coming. I expect the transition will be painful to many players used to our overheated economy and many tears will be shed. Once that new norm settles in I expect that players will once again think with their wallet while deciding what to fly, and value ‘bang for your buck’ over ‘bigger/better at any cost’. I for one look forward to those days returning.


Truth. Long ago mining was actually competitive with other professions. Gun mining, bots, anomalies, incursions & the ever growing L4 mission income have changed that.

Shortly after rigs were released (back when I was a null bear), our alliance leaders arranged a competition to see what was actually more effective, gun mining or exhumer mining. Man for man & hour for hour the gun miners pulled more minerals, a better mix of minerals, they got bounties, salvage, & quality meta modules... all while putting less expensive ships at risk. That was the last time I undocked an exhumer.

With the changes CCP is putting in place, and assuming they get can get/keep botting under control, if mining becomes the singular source of T1 resources, then mining income must return to being a competitive income source in order for players to choose to do it.

As for the isk faucet Block is worried about, as players transition from Lv4s, anomalies & incursions to mining, the isk faucet will by nature balance itself.

Edit: ...mining income must return to being a competitive income source in order for gamers to choose to do it.
Players will do what they enjoy with their game time, regardless of the outcome.
Gamers will do what it takes to most effectivly achieve their goal, even if they hate the road they travel to get there.
Each of us is somewhere in between...

I don't see things settling down in May or June. I'm under the impression that the Inferno release will introduce a load of new items for production. Isn't it EVE players who will be producing and supplying DUST players with tanks and such? If that's the case, things are going to be NUTS for a few months after Inferno hits. Everyone's going to want to get in on some production.

Even if it's not the case exactly, there's definitely going to be new modules introduced. CCP said they were going to mess with our world and bring new shinies, change things up. People are still going to need ships, ammo, regular mods for invention and fitting, as well as rigs and stuff. All that demand will be there still, probably more since with ship re-balancing / addition.

So... all the old stuff still needs to be produced, but new shiny stuff will increase mineral demand even more.

Just to nitpick, mineral price increases aren't actually inflation, since everything not significantly impacted by their price (most things t2, named mods that trade well above mineral value, salvage/rigs, etc) have stayed pretty constant.

Inflation is a devaluation of currency over time, shown by an increase in price across the entire market and not just parts of it.