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DUST will fail miserably

Author
Riggs Droput
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#61 - 2011-09-28 04:47:09 UTC
I would love to see Dust succeed, my worries are the fact that the average life cycle of most console games seems to be about 6 months of a large fan base. Then about 2 years max before the servers are empty.

I also wonder how long dust players will stick around paying RL cash for tanks and gear when us eve players will be able to nuke them from orbit, for ISK.

I can imagine the rage of these players after dropping 10$ on a platoon's worth of gear only to have one of us come along and being able to bombard them, and they lose it all.

Who know's maybe DUST will succeed, but I give it about 4 years max unless they open it to PC players before then due to the lifecycle of the consoles. We are already half way through the current console generation life cycle. They suspect to see a new XBOX by 2013 and possibly a new Playstation by 2014-15.

Riggs

I would rather die on my feet, than live on my knees

Karim alRashid
Starboard.
#62 - 2011-09-28 06:32:02 UTC
I wouldn't imagine CCP are idiots and aren't well aware of the FPS dynamics on consoles. Thus I doubt their goal is to position DUST as a direct competitor to CoD or Killzone, but stress the MMO rather than the "shooter" aspect instead.

Pain is weakness leaving the body http://www.youtube.com/user/AlRashidKarim/videos

Thorn Galen
Bene Gesserit ChapterHouse
The Curatores Veritatis Auxiliary
#63 - 2011-09-28 06:48:16 UTC
Riggs Droput wrote:
I would love to see Dust succeed, my worries are the fact that the average life cycle of most console games seems to be about 6 months of a large fan base. Then about 2 years max before the servers are empty.

I also wonder how long dust players will stick around paying RL cash for tanks and gear when us eve players will be able to nuke them from orbit, for ISK.

I can imagine the rage of these players after dropping 10$ on a platoon's worth of gear only to have one of us come along and being able to bombard them, and they lose it all.

Who know's maybe DUST will succeed, but I give it about 4 years max unless they open it to PC players before then due to the lifecycle of the consoles. We are already half way through the current console generation life cycle. They suspect to see a new XBOX by 2013 and possibly a new Playstation by 2014-15.

Riggs


So true. Looking at console gaming from a historical perspective, console MMO's are viable only in the short-term (4 years and less). If DUST is not ported to the PC platform, it too could suffer a very short lifespan. I am still surprised that CCP went the route of a console game. Perhaps they based their decision on the premise that the PC platform is dead and dying - I see no other reason why. CCP may also have based their decision on the idea that players will spend real money to win, which is what PS3 network players tend to do. I think the Nex store is an experiment to test this - but their pricing strategy is all wrong.

The urgency of getting Incarna to be 100% what it was meant to be (as advertised), should not be ignored by CCP - and I'm pretty sure that as a company that has been running as long as they have, they are fully aware of, and very sensitive to this.

Sofia Bellard
Doomheim
#64 - 2011-09-28 06:49:42 UTC
DUST 514 will easily be a CoD and BF killer!!! I already have my copy reserved at Amazon.com.

Poor sad little pirates,  why you so mad?

Riggs Droput
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#65 - 2011-09-28 06:53:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Riggs Droput
Quote:

So true. Looking at console gaming from a historical perspective, console MMO's are viable only in the short-term (4 years and less). If DUST is not ported to the PC platform, it too could suffer a very short lifespan. I am still surprised that CCP went the route of a console game. Perhaps they based their decision on the premise that the PC platform is dead and dying - I see no other reason why. CCP may also have based their decision on the idea that players will spend real money to win, which is what PS3 network players tend to do. I think the Nex store is an experiment to test this - but their pricing strategy is all wrong.

The urgency of getting Incarna to be 100% what it was meant to be (as advertised), should not be ignored by CCP - and I'm pretty sure that as a company that has been running as long as they have, they are fully aware of, and very sensitive to this.


Actually Nvidia posted that PC games are set to overtake console games in sales by 2015 but it reads like Nvidia propaganda.

http://www.techpowerup.com/152626/Sunday-Special-PC-Gaming-On-the-Rise-Set-To-Outsell-Consoles-by-2014-NVIDIA.html

Riggs

I would rather die on my feet, than live on my knees

KarlSteiner
Moonlight 4rd
#66 - 2011-09-28 06:56:38 UTC
Most of eve user cant play dust because they have no PS3. So dust will be fail. Simple.
Karim alRashid
Starboard.
#67 - 2011-09-28 07:18:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Karim alRashid
A game lifespan is not bounded by the console hardware lifespan.

DUST 514 may well fail because it is just not fun and/or buggy, but not for all the idiotic reasons stated in this thread.

I wonder how console gamers pay RL cash to win, like one poster said above. I admittedly have played only CoD:BlackOps, Killzone, Uncharted and Gran Tourismo in the last half an year or so, but don't remember shelling anything other than initial game purchase, even the network play is free, there isn't anything like XBOX Live subscription.

Pain is weakness leaving the body http://www.youtube.com/user/AlRashidKarim/videos

Riggs Droput
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#68 - 2011-09-28 07:29:04 UTC
Karim alRashid wrote:
A game lifespan is not bounded by the console hardware lifespan.

DUST 514 may well fail because it is just not fun and/or buggy, but not for all the idiotic reasons stated in this thread.


I agree with your statement that a game lifespan is not bounded by the console hardware lifespan but a games popularity and community can be limited due to those reasons.

Crimsons Skies Xbox, one of the first games that took advantage of xbox live, an excellent arcade flight combat game. No one plays now because everyone is on a 360.

Look on the opposite side.

Counter Strike release date 1999, still servers running the game even with Counter Strike: Source being release. A stable platform that is 100% backwards compatible will keep a games life span around longer then the hardware lifespan.

The issue with some of the previous consoles is that they are not backwards compatible. That's why PC games end up holding their communities together longer. Because as people upgrade their hardware they are still able to play the game. It does not affect them like upgrading console hardware.

When I bought my 360 I packed up my original xbox. Sold most of the games and the xbox and moved over to my 360. When I got my PS3 I packed up my PS2 and games and gave them all to charity.

The majority of console players will not stick with an older system when something new comes out, and when the older systems become outdated most of the software and community goes with it. I am not saying all will do that but a large portion do.

So unless the PS4 is 100% backwards compatible you will see a drop in players as the console life cycle moves on.

Riggs

I would rather die on my feet, than live on my knees

Karim alRashid
Starboard.
#69 - 2011-09-28 07:34:01 UTC
Riggs Droput wrote:
Karim alRashid wrote:
A game lifespan is not bounded by the console hardware lifespan.


So unless the PS4 is 100% backwards compatible you will see a drop in players as the console life cycle moves on.



I rather think it's CCP's job to port their game to the then current version of the Unreal Engine for PS4.

And if DUST is successful on PS3, they will.

Pain is weakness leaving the body http://www.youtube.com/user/AlRashidKarim/videos

Othran
Route One
#70 - 2011-09-28 07:34:54 UTC
Regardless of anything else, CCP are going to have a hell of a job selling it in the UK.

Largest game retailer in the UK (Game) announced results recently and they're not good - basically they're seeing a 16% fall in sales over the year (on a like for like basis) and are expecting the market to become "substantially weaker" over the next 12 months. European and US sales are looking similar although US sales seem to be holding up a little better (still bloody awful though).

tl;dr people aren't buying games (on console/PC) like they used to and in the UK at least its going to get a LOT worse before it gets better.
Jaroslav Unwanted
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#71 - 2011-09-28 07:34:56 UTC
human-kind will fail inevitably / true
universe will fail inevitably / true
Dust will fail inevitably / true

You see what i did there...

Its all matter of time.
Fouljin
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#72 - 2011-09-28 07:35:29 UTC
OMG a Gaming company is developing a game. STOP IT!!! Lol

Riggs Droput
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#73 - 2011-09-28 07:40:31 UTC
Karim alRashid wrote:
Riggs Droput wrote:
Karim alRashid wrote:
A game lifespan is not bounded by the console hardware lifespan.


So unless the PS4 is 100% backwards compatible you will see a drop in players as the console life cycle moves on.



I rather think it's CCP's job to port their game to the then current version of the Unreal Engine for PS4.

And if DUST is successful on PS3, they will.



Ya CCP should but Sony can make it easier on all developers by developing a strong backwards compatibility in to their hardware. It makes it easier on everyone. Then when you upgrade you don't only start out with launch titles you have a entire previous generation of games that are able to bundle/promote your new console. They might not have all the flash the release titles do but it would keep the player base happier.

Riggs

I would rather die on my feet, than live on my knees

Karim alRashid
Starboard.
#74 - 2011-09-28 08:28:01 UTC
Othran wrote:

tl;dr people aren't buying games (on console/PC)


Statistics on pirating ? LolLolLol

Pain is weakness leaving the body http://www.youtube.com/user/AlRashidKarim/videos

Rico Minali
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#75 - 2011-09-28 08:30:52 UTC
CaptainFalcon07 wrote:


Whatever DUST will by, I'm not going to be playing or buying it since I don't have a PS3.


Then stfu and stop trying to cause drama.

Trust me, I almost know what I'm doing.

Seraph Cruoris
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#76 - 2011-09-28 08:36:46 UTC
Quote:
Ya CCP should but Sony can make it easier on all developers by developing a strong backwards compatibility in to their hardware. It makes it easier on everyone. Then when you upgrade you don't only start out with launch titles you have a entire previous generation of games that are able to bundle/promote your new console. They might not have all the flash the release titles do but it would keep the player base happier.


backwards compatibility only works on one premise: you're not adding anything more to the game. if they do add anything more to the game which being CCP and EVE-linked, it is bound to happen, what will probably happen is that it will either see a release in disc format with updated graphics or a PSN download for those already subscribed (or for those who want to skip the physical copy).....

secondly if they really want to make this work is to really beg Microsoft to give them an exclusive pass to the XBL system's bubble of certification and have PS3 and 360 player playing on the same server.

as for what someone said about 6-12 months life span...you're thinking CoD. But if you look at Halo/Battlefield those titles last a lot longer...Halo 3 lasted 3 years (and if im not mistaken people still play it now despite Reach's release)....Halo 2 was the one title that kept going on the old XBL servers (big deal was made about this)...so if they can make this game special like Halo/MAG you'll always have an active community...



Zey Nadar
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#77 - 2011-09-28 08:42:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Zey Nadar
I would love to hear from CCP exactly what kind of dependencies and connections there is between dust and eve players.. As long as there isn't any information, its easy to round those connections to "none" and declare a generic fps shooter a failure.
I wish there would be a devblog about the current situation in the development of dust. It would be a nice change to the contentless devblogs lately.

Riggs Droput wrote:

Counter Strike release date 1999, still servers running the game even with Counter Strike: Source being release. A stable platform that is 100% backwards compatible will keep a games life span around longer then the hardware lifespan.


Consoles arent necessarily backwards compatible. I had the first generation ps3 that could run ps2 games, but Sony eventually removed the backwards compatibility from its latest-generation playstation 3s.
Screenlag
Armaggedon Inc.
Shadow Cartel
#78 - 2011-09-28 13:56:34 UTC
Dust will live on eve players. I would considering playing it had it not been a PS3 exclusive and given that I could make money for my eve character. I enjoy shooters as much as the next guy, but lets hope CCP manages to integrate it in a good way, so that there's isk to be made for us peasants :)
Vertisce Soritenshi
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#79 - 2011-09-28 14:27:04 UTC
Ladie Scarlet wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Ladie Scarlet wrote:
That's kind of my point. Console kiddies don't stick with one game for any length of time and developers have to keep cranking out new games to appease them. Do you really see CCP making Dust, Dust 2, and Dust 3 in a year?
…you mean kind of like releasing (say) a yearly content patch and game update?

game update is not a sequel. Console games don't live on updates and DLC for very long because the audience has been trained to expect a brand new game every few months. CCP expecting Dust to live alongside Eve for years is foolish.


You could say the exact same thing about PC games and gamers. Why you are trying to distinguish PC from Console is foolish.

Bounties for all! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2279821#post2279821

Sellendis
The Ares project
#80 - 2011-09-28 14:54:08 UTC
DUST a fail project? Only time will tell, IMHO its a fail.
The idea itself is fine, but considering game market of today....its gonna be hard to get by.

How many EvE players own PS3? How many will buy PS3 just for DUST (and BR player mostly)?

Is CCP counting on big alliances to somehow motivate people to contribute to fights on planets?
Is PI still a factor in DUST and EvE, and controlling planets control PI production?
Again a good idea, but its gonna be a hassle, why go all the trouble to make and bake a loaf of bread at home and waste few hours, when you can buy one in a second? EvE has bots, bots earn money, who needs PI and your own ground army when you can buy what you want in 4-4.

Console players attention span is low. With new games on shelves almost weekly, CCP needs a goddamn good plan to keep people playing DUST.

Imagining DUST is a console MMO (MMO connected) is stupid, they cant sell that to most of EvE community, let alone console players. What happens when DUST server population drops? Servers shut down, and what about EvE? Does EvE get a emergency boost of patches to remove DUST from equation, or will EvE keep going like DUST never mattered in the first place.

Now this i am sure no one will answer , how much money did CCP spent developing DUST? How much do they expect to gain in first 6-12 months?
Now imagine all that money and man hours invested in DUST were instead put into EvE....what would be the situation in EvE today, maybe hybrids would be fixed along with a lot of balancing issues.