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Idiots or Bots

Author
Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2012-04-13 03:39:56 UTC
I'm seeing multiple instances of sell orders with a huge number of items coming into a spiked market and moving the price rapidly downward. There actually seems to be two or three people pursuing this strategy in one of the items I'm trying to sell.

Is this just people being aggressive or is there some new bot out there that is causing this.
churrros
afwewafe
#2 - 2012-04-13 04:09:48 UTC
Let's say I produced something that costs 5 mil(including pos fuel, minerals + etc) for example and I set my target sell price for 7 mil to have a decent isk/hr per slot.

However, the market spikes and the sell orders for this particular item is currently at 10 mil.

If I decide I would rather dump my stuff at 9 mil so I can buy materials again to produce more stuff to sell, whats wrong with that?

If you see someone driving market prices down, just buy them out and sell them at a higher price.


Also, you can trick bots this way as well. If you think there is a bot driving down prices, you can make another order for 1 item and keep chasing the bot-sell-order down, and buy him out when the bot renews his sell order almost near the buy order price.
Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2012-04-13 04:24:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Jas Dor
churrros wrote:
Let's say I produced something that costs 5 mil(including pos fuel, minerals + etc) for example and I set my target sell price for 7 mil to have a decent isk/hr per slot.

However, the market spikes and the sell orders for this particular item is currently at 10 mil.

If I decide I would rather dump my stuff at 9 mil so I can buy materials again to produce more stuff to sell, whats wrong with that?

If you see someone driving market prices down, just buy them out and sell them at a higher price.


Also, you can trick bots this way as well. If you think there is a bot driving down prices, you can make another order for 1 item and keep chasing the bot-sell-order down, and buy him out when the bot renews his sell order almost near the buy order price.


Well if its a person, not a bot, dropping price only works if it will increase sales volume of an item. For many goods sold in a major hub most price declines or spikes do not effect volume. On the other hand if you deeply undercut, at least in Jita, somebody else is likely to undercut you by 0.01 isk, ratifying the new price and causing a market move downwards. (This means you sell no more items than you would if you undercut the top guy by 0.01 isk).
churrros
afwewafe
#4 - 2012-04-13 04:48:46 UTC
Jas Dor wrote:


Well if its a person, not a bot, dropping price only works if it will increase sales volume of an item. For many goods sold in a major hub most price declines or spikes do not effect volume. On the other hand if you deeply undercut, at least in Jita, somebody else is likely to undercut you by 0.01 isk, ratifying the new price and causing a market move downwards. (This means you sell no more items than you would if you undercut the top guy by 0.01 isk).


Actually, I found that if I undercut enough, people or bots don't follow me, since many of these people playing 0.01 isk games are probably traders and not producers of the items, they have little less room to maneuver in prices than people who actually make them,

Yes, I would make more money if I stayed in Jita all day and played the 0.01 isk game with them, but I would rather make less money as long as it covers my costs and get me a justifiable profit with a quick turn over.

Having a quick turnover is important for small time manufacturers like me who needs a portion of the profits made to re invest in materials to keep the factories running, which will in turn generate a greater amount of isk in the long run if I did not let my good just sit in the market order for days.

So usually what happens is I bring my products to a market hub, around 1 or 2 days worth of sales volume, play some 0.01 isk games with bots(well I usually drop more like 0.1mil ) until nobody undercuts my price. After one day or two, all my goods are sold, I still made good profit, I have money to restock my factories to make more money later on.

On the other hand, if I do not undercut until nobody follows me, I either have to play 0.01 isk games all day, or my stock sits at Jita, give me no more new materials to produce so I can't run my factories. Not undercutting by large margins would probably give me better profits for that particular batch of goods, but way less compare to what I would make if I sold quickly and kept my factories running.
Megnamon
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#5 - 2012-04-13 12:49:44 UTC
I had this happen with one person (who I traded emails with) selling weapon rigs in the Tash and Amarr systems. Weapon rigs were selling for an average of around 700,000, said person dumps large supply at 70,000. I think, ok buy them out and than resell for good profit, except after I buy them out they dump a couple hundred more the next day at 70,000. This was about a month ago and weapon rigs (at least laser variety) are now selling at 40,000 or less due to not being able to move volume to clear them out. If there is enough buy volume the market will correct itself, if there isnt the demand, the price may stay depressed for a longer period of time. All depends on volume me thinks.
Haulie Berry
#6 - 2012-04-13 14:32:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
I have gladly tanked markets where the price had spun out of control and I could still make a sizable margin. My goal is not to get the best margin possible, my goal is to make the most amount of money over a given period of time. Sometimes it simply makes more sense to take a small margin now and then put that money back to work than it does to wait on a higher profit margin.

Furthermore, if my doing so hurts another producer (financially), that's something of a fringe benefit.
Tenris Anis
Schattenengel Clan
#7 - 2012-04-14 12:11:36 UTC
Small side question:

How much of your time you have to invest to made one billion isk with your trading? Including travel time, setup time, market games, etc?

Remove insurance.

Alberik
Eusebius Corporation
#8 - 2012-04-14 15:45:12 UTC
i have done this myself with scourge fury hms once. first i drove price down about 100isk by setting low sell orders, then i bought all missiles in market up to the next price gap wich was about 175isk higher and put all my missiles into market at the new price. this worked surprisingly well with a solid profit but had no major change in missile cost over a longer time.

this workes good on items with


  • not to much producers, wich will otherwise put new offers to fast into market
  • huge demand, you have to sell your stock fast again
  • long production-to-market times so new producers cant jump the bandwaggon


you have to set the price high enough, so you can do a lot 0.01isk games before price is at normal again, you cant hold the price up over a longer time as to many others will join in to make some profit

there is also some risk, if you run out of isk while you are not at your desired value or there are huge stocks not put into market yet it can drain your pretty isk down
Drew Solaert
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2012-04-14 15:46:52 UTC
Some silly lil fools can undercut but 3-5mil. I'll just have to wait a lil longer to make that much more profit on the sensible price range.

I lied :o

Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#10 - 2012-04-14 16:02:28 UTC
Jas Dor wrote:
I'm seeing multiple instances of sell orders with a huge number of items coming into a spiked market and moving the price rapidly downward. There actually seems to be two or three people pursuing this strategy in one of the items I'm trying to sell.

Is this just people being aggressive or is there some new bot out there that is causing this.


I just assumed its people trying to drive down the market for the time being so they can buy up items for much cheaper then they have recently been (or going to be).

Post buy order for 10,000,000 units at 5% cheaper than current market value with a minimum buy amount set at 500,000 means many people will not be able to buy the minimum amount. It also causes the micro marketeers to place sell orders for lower then your 5% sell order, which the seller can either buy up as they show up on the market or re-list their large sell order for cheaper then yours causing cheaper orders to show up.

Or similar to the above expect (for example) you place the order at 5% below the current market value, one for 5% above current market value, and buy up everything in between. When people see the low price they will buy at that value, but if they don't meet the minimum buy amount they will be charged the higher (5% above market value) item.

I'm not market expert by any means, but I've seen this happen in other games and figured what I've seen similar to this in eve was the same situation.
Brewlar Kuvakei
Adeptio Gloriae
#11 - 2012-04-14 16:42:25 UTC
Some other traders just set a price because they are happy with the way the goods are moving.
Adunh Slavy
#12 - 2012-04-14 17:11:38 UTC
Profit on the dips created by panicky greed.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

GreenSeed
#13 - 2012-04-14 19:10:04 UTC
Jas Dor wrote:
churrros wrote:
Let's say I produced something that costs 5 mil(including pos fuel, minerals + etc) for example and I set my target sell price for 7 mil to have a decent isk/hr per slot.

However, the market spikes and the sell orders for this particular item is currently at 10 mil.

If I decide I would rather dump my stuff at 9 mil so I can buy materials again to produce more stuff to sell, whats wrong with that?

If you see someone driving market prices down, just buy them out and sell them at a higher price.


Also, you can trick bots this way as well. If you think there is a bot driving down prices, you can make another order for 1 item and keep chasing the bot-sell-order down, and buy him out when the bot renews his sell order almost near the buy order price.


Well if its a person, not a bot, dropping price only works if it will increase sales volume of an item. For many goods sold in a major hub most price declines or spikes do not effect volume. On the other hand if you deeply undercut, at least in Jita, somebody else is likely to undercut you by 0.01 isk, ratifying the new price and causing a market move downwards. (This means you sell no more items than you would if you undercut the top guy by 0.01 isk).

and your problem with that is? its a free market, a LOT of ppl would rather sell 10% lower than the price point just to make sure their orders get picked up and wont end up lost among all the other... eventually market would bounce up to price point and your orders will get filled... now if MORE pl sell at that -10% price off yours then guess what.... YOU missed the price point.

also, i can't help but find your assumption that it must be a bot or an idiot idiotic on its own.
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#14 - 2012-04-18 17:47:55 UTC
Jas Dor wrote:
I'm seeing multiple instances of sell orders with a huge number of items coming into a spiked market and moving the price rapidly downward. There actually seems to be two or three people pursuing this strategy in one of the items I'm trying to sell.

Is this just people being aggressive or is there some new bot out there that is causing this.


Answer has been given, although that doesn't even really matter, it's more important how you react.

If you are low on isk, you have no choice and have to go along with the downward spiral (which could in turn end up lower than the original decent price, this is all natural behaviour, people see a good deal, start making **** and around the same time multiple people take it to the market).

Best option though is to leave it as it is, the other peoples stock will run out and if the prices are not very unrealistic, you will sell in the end.

For instance, i made 500 t2 modules, cost price 2.8m or so. Couldn't be bothered to sell them in batches so dumped them all on high price level of 5m. In 1 month 100 or so selled and price was down on lowest of 3.5. I lowered my price to 4 but suddenly demand was up and i was the lowest sell order with no competition so i raised back to 4.8. Now they are almost all sold and i made about maximum possible (for lowest effort that is).