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The Inflation Death of the Universe

First post
Author
Talisa Latarien
Dark Tempest Enterprises
#61 - 2012-04-12 08:45:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Talisa Latarien
Not willing to depose the "We're all going to die" approach to the problem, but I think it's quite natural that there's a connection between profitability and security of mining. The higher the mineral cost (especially, Trit), the more it costs to build a T1 gank ship and modules for it. Now, some equipment comes from ratting, missioning, etc, but ships do have to be built. And, as mentioned earlier, Concordokken=no insurance. On the other hand, mineral prices going up means more profitability for miners.

So, at some point in time the price of expendable alpha ships will be comparable to the price of expected loot from an average mining setup. And loot is pretty random (unless someone is crazy enough to mine T2-fitted and alone at the same time) - salvaged stuff worth 2 mil from several abandoned BC wrecks at a gate the other day, while getting 50 mil worth salvage from one hisec belt rat frig.

So the only question is, how high will the mineral prices go now that minerals from drones are out of this game, and refining mission loot is now marginal at best. Correct me if I am wrong.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#62 - 2012-04-12 09:00:42 UTC
People often quit EVE because they find it too hard.

That doesn't mean EVE is too hard.
Raven Ether
Doomheim
#63 - 2012-04-12 11:22:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Raven Ether
Darth Gustav wrote:
Jas Dor wrote:
Roime wrote:
Your whole thought structure is based on the stubborn fallacy that mining is a solo activity that can only be performed in high security space.

Mining does not make anyone a victim. Being unorganised, unwilling to co-operate with others and doing it in the wrong place makes one a victim. It is therefore no different from any other activity in EVE.



Are you claiming that group mining in low/null is an efficient way to get minerals into the game? A once a week corp mining op for a couple hours isn't going to meet the mineral demand in this game.


Thousands of corps. Please, don't forget to livestream your mining ops.

Preferably with accompanying webcam for maximum tear extraction.


I would pay good isk to watch that.

Btw, it's only noobs that get swept over and over by suicide ganks. People who know what they are doing can find one of many many high sec systems to mine safely.

Op is a scrub
Llyandrian
Livestock Science Exchange
#64 - 2012-04-12 13:31:54 UTC

This is all part of the null sec industry buff.
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#65 - 2012-04-12 13:45:21 UTC
Talisa Latarien wrote:

So the only question is, how high will the mineral prices go now that minerals from drones are out of this game, and refining mission loot is now marginal at best. Correct me if I am wrong.


The simple answer - they will rise in price until either demand slacks off or the ISK/hr rises to the point where people jump in and start harvesting. Players will either have to help harvest the materials to increase supply and/or reduce their consumption to match their new income levels.

Figure that, in hi-sec, you can get 30-40M per hour from running L4s, 40-60M (maybe 80M) from running incursions. Traditionally, mining income has been measured at around 8-12M ISK/hr. As that rises to more closely match the other methods of earning income in hi-sec, more people will start mining as a career path. Which is probably about 10-20% higher then current prices (hi-sec ores would need to settle in at around 180-220 ISK/m3 for the long-term). Or whatever ISK/m3 pushes that up into the 20-25M ISK/hr range for a solo Hulk.

The same holds true out in null-sec. The ABC ores will rise in value to the point where they are somewhat competitive with the other ways of earning income out in null. That's probably around 500-600 ISK/m3 for those ores, and maybe 15k ISK/u for Morphite.

(Current market prices for the 8 minerals aren't far off where I expect them to be come July. But there will definitely be a price spike in May/June.)
Zarere
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#66 - 2012-04-12 13:54:52 UTC
Its funny how everyone thinks that cheap battleships are a birthright.

I'm not that old, but werent there a time when battleships were a rarity, maybe we're coming back towards those times again?
Marduk Nibiru
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#67 - 2012-04-12 15:53:06 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Nimbat wrote:
Who is?


PVPers are not going to quit because higher tier ships are more expensive. They'll downgrade the ship they fly before quitting.

-Liang


Actually...

I'm regularly broke. A consequence of not really playing a lot and not having a clear agenda when I do.

Since I also get blown up a lot, I very often have to downgrade what I'm flying. I'm not the kind of guy that can lose 300mil a week and be OK. I'd be ratting ALL the time for that to work and flying minmatar...I can't really rat all that effectively either.

So I often find myself forced into flying a rifter or a cruiser. And yeah, I just ship down to what I can afford and go out again.

Besides that, I actually like the small ships more. Rifter is my favorite ship to fly. I created a minmatar character because of it. I'd rather go out in a rifter than most anything else (except maybe a griffin, which I learned is pretty damn fun to fly too).

I actually hate flying around in battleships. They're expensive, slow, and boring. They take forever to train effectively too.

So here's one PvP pilot that would be happy to see the vast majority of fleets composed of AF, HAC, or something like that where I can fly my poor-man rifter without looking like a dweeb. Such fleets are way more fun even if you're rich...in my opinion.
Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#68 - 2012-04-12 16:00:45 UTC
Talisa Latarien wrote:
Not willing to depose the "We're all going to die" approach to the problem, but I think it's quite natural that there's a connection between profitability and security of mining. The higher the mineral cost (especially, Trit), the more it costs to build a T1 gank ship and modules for it. Now, some equipment comes from ratting, missioning, etc, but ships do have to be built. And, as mentioned earlier, Concordokken=no insurance. On the other hand, mineral prices going up means more profitability for miners.

So, at some point in time the price of expendable alpha ships will be comparable to the price of expected loot from an average mining setup. And loot is pretty random (unless someone is crazy enough to mine T2-fitted and alone at the same time) - salvaged stuff worth 2 mil from several abandoned BC wrecks at a gate the other day, while getting 50 mil worth salvage from one hisec belt rat frig.

So the only question is, how high will the mineral prices go now that minerals from drones are out of this game, and refining mission loot is now marginal at best. Correct me if I am wrong.


Considering that a mining barge can be ganked by a destroyer, this seems more likely to result in an inflationary spiral than eventual stability.
Immortis Vexx
Onyx Moon Industries
#69 - 2012-04-12 16:49:35 UTC
Honestly, I'm tired of both people on both sides of the mining fight. Here are some items I have for both sides of this.


PVPr foolishness
A) you CAN'T tank a hulk to be sustainable in highsec. If a destroyer or 2 frigs can do it, anything can.
B) DSCAN doesn't work in highsec! With 40 other ships floating around in space dscan is pointless. you PVPrs just don't fricken get it.
C) Warp stabs on a mining boat DON'T WORK. This should be obvious but I'll explain anyway. A mining boat will not have enough time to align and get up to speed before ganked; even if you are already pointed in the right direction. Plus being bumped around, it's pointless.


Miner foolishness
A) If you are mining in a system that has 500 people, you are an idiot.
B) If you aren't watching local for known gankers (and not making effective use of the negative standing tool), you are an idiot. Learn the denizens of your home!
C) If you are AFK mining, you are an idiot.
D) Your mining boat is not made to fight in a war, If you think it should.. you are an idiot. Mining scows are for MINING not battle. CCP doesn't need to make a "tank miner" because the very idea of this is ridiculous
E) If you are mining highsec with a hulk (AND have the ability to orca support), you are an idiot. This is a big one so I'll go into more detail...

  • A covetor (at max) gets 15% less ore per cycle than a hulk.
  • Even with terrible drone skills you can tank belt rats long enough to kill them before taking armor damage.
  • Highsec gankers look for juicy targets. Your objective is to be NOT on that list
  • You can recoup the cost of a covetor (and they are SUPER EASY to build) in minutes compared to getting ganked in a hulk


I am a high/lowsec miner, and a profitable one. I have also been ganked, several times. To suggest that only miners "hide behind the game mechanics" its stupid too. How come I can't deploy drones to any rifter that warps into the belt? If a rifter comes on scene, my only option is to GTFO. Gankers have concord security up until the very second that they engage. You say that miners hide behind concord and I say that it is exactly the opposite.


Vexx


Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#70 - 2012-04-12 16:54:36 UTC
Immortis Vexx wrote:
B) DSCAN doesn't work in highsec! With 40 other ships floating around in space dscan is pointless. you PVPrs just don't fricken get it.


Accusing pvpers of not "getting" dscan while demonstrating that it is you who doesn't "get" dscan.
Debiru
Universal Fleet Operations
#71 - 2012-04-12 17:03:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Debiru
Nullsec isn't Wonderland, and it isn't made for people to be a loner. You want to mine in nullsec, or lowsec for that matter, than you get some friends or a corp together and you run a mining op. Mining in nullsec doesn't equal how many Hulks and Barges that come out to mine, it equals the effectiveness of your scouts and the intelligence of your FC in picking a suitable and defensible location.

If you're still in the belt after a neut has jumped in-system that you don't know the location of, you've already lost, doesn't matter if your ship has been blown up yet or not.

Stop viewing the pvp'ers as worthless pewpew addicts and start paying them to scout the gates and defend the belts with ECM ships, and the pvp'ers might stop viewing the miners as carebear squatters.




Oh, and you won't be self-selecting yourself for victimhood anymore.

Share the wealth and stop assuming pvp has nothing to do with mining.





As for ganking in highsec, it's easily avoidable. In 6 years and spending time in all 3 sec status areas, I've only ever lost a single barge, and it was in wormhole space (and was completely my own fault, not the fault of game/mining mechanics). If a destroyer, battlecruiser, or battleship warps into your belt in highsec, you should already be warping out. And if you're sitting on the warp-in location in a belt, you've already selected yourself to be a victim.

Do I think barges and Exhumors should get a tanking buff? Yes. I do. Do I think it should be large, or that it is necessary? No. They aren't pvp ships and their first method of defense is the pilot being attentative and intelligent. Don't blame CCP because you lack those traits.




In other news, yay buffed mineral prices. Now if we can make Titans and SCs rare again (well, again for the Titans), I'd be in love.
Immortis Vexx
Onyx Moon Industries
#72 - 2012-04-12 17:03:33 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
Immortis Vexx wrote:
B) DSCAN doesn't work in highsec! With 40 other ships floating around in space dscan is pointless. you PVPrs just don't fricken get it.


Accusing pvpers of not "getting" dscan while demonstrating that it is you who doesn't "get" dscan.


Okay, then explain to me how dscan works effectively in highsec instead of just giving a cryptic, uninformative post that calls me a fool without any details. Don't get me wrong, if you can provide me with a good set of reasons and how to use it in high sec, I will certainly say that you were right.

Vexx
Debiru
Universal Fleet Operations
#73 - 2012-04-12 17:11:10 UTC
Immortis Vexx wrote:
Darth Tickles wrote:
Immortis Vexx wrote:
B) DSCAN doesn't work in highsec! With 40 other ships floating around in space dscan is pointless. you PVPrs just don't fricken get it.


Accusing pvpers of not "getting" dscan while demonstrating that it is you who doesn't "get" dscan.


Okay, then explain to me how dscan works effectively in highsec instead of just giving a cryptic, uninformative post that calls me a fool without any details. Don't get me wrong, if you can provide me with a good set of reasons and how to use it in high sec, I will certainly say that you were right.

Vexx

Tips;

1.) Don't mine in a system that is heavily populated.
2.) If there are too many results, lower the range of your Dscan, and look for destroyers, cruisers, battlecruisers, and T1 battleships with silly names.
3.) Stay aligned at low-speed at all time and always have your destination selected on overview except when selecting targets for mining lasers. This will allow you to warp out within 2-5 seconds depending on your skills. Don't wait to be targeted to warp out, warp out if you see a ship warp in that isn't a mining ship (Memorize the mining cruisers/frigates).
4.) Buff and resistance fit your barge. You have spare medium slots, and when mining solo, a survey scanner isn't necessary
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#74 - 2012-04-12 17:15:04 UTC
Debiru wrote:

In other news, yay buffed mineral prices. Now if we can make Titans and SCs rare again (well, again for the Titans), I'd be in love.


RMT confiscations will hopefully make them rare again.
Immortis Vexx
Onyx Moon Industries
#75 - 2012-04-12 17:25:12 UTC
Debiru wrote:
Immortis Vexx wrote:
[quote=Darth Tickles][quote=Immortis Vexx]B) DSCAN doesn't work in highsec! With 40 Stuff

Vexx

Tips;

1.) Don't mine in a system that is heavily populated.
2.) If there are too many results, lower the range of your Dscan, and look for destroyers, cruisers, battlecruisers, and T1 battleships with silly names.
3.) Stay aligned at low-speed at all time and always have your destination selected on overview except when selecting targets for mining lasers. This will allow you to warp out within 2-5 seconds depending on your skills. Don't wait to be targeted to warp out, warp out if you see a ship warp in that isn't a mining ship (Memorize the mining cruisers/frigates).
4.) Buff and resistance fit your barge. You have spare medium slots, and when mining solo, a survey scanner isn't necessary


1) See the first point that i made previously, this is simply a reiteration of what i said
2) Funny names? WTF does that have to do with anything? How does lowering the range help? Seeing battleships and rifters, and any other ship is incredibly common in highsec. Dscan is a GREAT tool for lowsec but I still can't see this level of intel being worth a damn in high sec
3) This one I can kinda see as valid. Though it does make it a logistical nightmare when solo mining and only having a 15km range.
4) As I stated previously even with a fully buffer/resist fitted hulk you will most likely still be ganked. why? This makes you more of a "juicy" target. I agree that this is the only way to "safely" mine and have at least some semblance of defense but again, its a mining barge, not a battleship.

Vexx

Mocram
Inventores Lda.
#76 - 2012-04-12 17:29:33 UTC
I’ve been a miner/industrialist in eve for more the 7 years
When I started mining, I’ve made all the way from the small Procurer, to the Retriever and into the Covetor.
Mining my stuff, and hauling it to the station
Then I decided I should make a second account, all that running to the station was getting on my nerves, so, I made an hauling account, and I trained to be the sales man to, hauling from one station to the other in my humble Iteron IV. It was damn fun
After 3 months in EVE, someone asked me if I wanted to go to 0.0… Big voyage, I learned about the famous ABC (Arkonor, Bistot and Crokite), the 3 most valuable, except for the Mercoxite, so I learned to fly the Hulk and use T2 mining lasers and crystals
So, in 0.0, we mined ABC and got pye and Trit from hauling Spawns. Remember that at the time, the only capital Ships available were the Freighters, so imagine what it was to haul minerals. Also, freighters couldn’t get stuff from POSs if I remember correctly
Mining at the time was fun, but low-sec was as closed then as it is now, a bit less because you could actually hire ppl to guard gates(mining would pay for it), even so, it was something I never actually understood the risk vs effort

End of the story of my life [:=d

Until some days ago, before the destroyer buff, I used to mine Ice, although not paying a lot, I could actually do it while playing with kids and addressing wife agro accordingly. Lost some ships of course to ganks, but also gained some. That was until I actually lost two nicely tanked (modules + gang links in orca) Mackinaws for 2 destroyers, first one I didn’t see it coming, the second I saw him warping in, tried to warp but it was to late
So, I started thinking to myself if it was really doable to mine in high sec. The answer was no, and still is. Covetor dying to 1 Destroyer and Mackinaw dying to 2 Destroyers. (hulk can be a bit better, but also not enought in my POV

Null sec for me is like no man’s land. A Piece of Land for the the pirates. I do know you can make a lot of isk in low-sec but you also lose a lot
High sec is much safer the low sec, you can actually own the systems and mine in hidden belts. Its NBSI, so if someone enters system, align and warp to POS. You can’t do that in high-sec or low-sec, or else you’ll be more time out of the Belt rather the in the Belt
Also ABC is only in null sec, wich makes it actually profitable to mine

Question is, who is going to mine Trit and Pye
ABC are mineable in Nul
Medium end Ores will also start to be mined there
What about low end? Is it possible to get enough Trit from Null into High to feed High Sec Needs
None is going to mine in low-sec, at least not if he can make the calcs

Imagine you have one char, or maybe 2 chars
You can get into a Drake in aprox. 2 weeks and start making lvl 3, and go to lvl4’s in 1 month more
You need a bunch of time to be able to get into a covetor and use a strip miner. 1 month at leas

Missioning can give you between 15 to 100M/hour at absolutely no risk, and with no need for a 2nd account or friends, and can also get wife and kids agro
Mining needs to group up to get to 20M/hour, and still need to be careful for suicide ganks

Solutions
Given up on 3 account
Given up on my towe
Getting ready to group u
Preparing myself to go to 0.0 and have fun. Let some others be the stupid ones to mine Ice and low end Mins. I’m going to have fun in blowing up stuff and do some null sec Exploration

CCP Solutions
I Believe there are some, maybe changing the mineral compositions of some ores ore things like that. Something that will put the mining income aligned with missioning. But hey, I never tried to guess what CCP will do next, or I would be in constant paranoia.
Mocram
Inventores Lda.
#77 - 2012-04-12 17:31:25 UTC
Immortis Vexx wrote:
Debiru wrote:
Immortis Vexx wrote:
[quote=Darth Tickles][quote=Immortis Vexx]B) DSCAN doesn't work in highsec! With 40 Stuff

Vexx

Tips;

1.) Don't mine in a system that is heavily populated.
2.) If there are too many results, lower the range of your Dscan, and look for destroyers, cruisers, battlecruisers, and T1 battleships with silly names.
3.) Stay aligned at low-speed at all time and always have your destination selected on overview except when selecting targets for mining lasers. This will allow you to warp out within 2-5 seconds depending on your skills. Don't wait to be targeted to warp out, warp out if you see a ship warp in that isn't a mining ship (Memorize the mining cruisers/frigates).
4.) Buff and resistance fit your barge. You have spare medium slots, and when mining solo, a survey scanner isn't necessary


1) See the first point that i made previously, this is simply a reiteration of what i said
2) Funny names? WTF does that have to do with anything? How does lowering the range help? Seeing battleships and rifters, and any other ship is incredibly common in highsec. Dscan is a GREAT tool for lowsec but I still can't see this level of intel being worth a damn in high sec
3) This one I can kinda see as valid. Though it does make it a logistical nightmare when solo mining and only having a 15km range.
4) As I stated previously even with a fully buffer/resist fitted hulk you will most likely still be ganked. why? This makes you more of a "juicy" target. I agree that this is the only way to "safely" mine and have at least some semblance of defense but again, its a mining barge, not a battleship.

Vexx



btw
yay for a relaxing profession in EVE.
Is it supposed to be this hard to mine in high sec???? c'mon guys, if i rat in a belt in null i just need to watch local, and that is risky.
Debiru
Universal Fleet Operations
#78 - 2012-04-12 18:30:06 UTC
Quote:

btw
yay for a relaxing profession in EVE.
Is it supposed to be this hard to mine in high sec???? c'mon guys, if i rat in a belt in null i just need to watch local, and that is risky.

It's not if you're smart and pick a place to mine that doesn't have gankers everyday. Unfortunately, judging by this thread, most people aren't very good at that.
Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#79 - 2012-04-12 18:55:03 UTC
Time to market and gank risk of the hauler are also inflationary pressures. If it takes an hour to haul to market prices will rise to reflect this. If gank risk caps the maximum amount that can be hauled at less than the capacity of the hauler, prices will also rise to reflect this. Sure you might be able to mine in Khanid, but can you efficiently get the minerals to market?
Traejun DiSanctis
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#80 - 2012-04-12 19:16:01 UTC
Jas Dor wrote:
Time to market and gank risk of the hauler are also inflationary pressures. If it takes an hour to haul to market prices will rise to reflect this. If gank risk caps the maximum amount that can be hauled at less than the capacity of the hauler, prices will also rise to reflect this. Sure you might be able to mine in Khanid, but can you efficiently get the minerals to market?



Nice analysis. You raise good points. To date, the market pressure applied by piracy (ganks) in hi-sec has been negligible. I would estimate it at ~5%, which is a perfectly acceptable predicted "loss" and/or "waste" figure when trading at high volume.

Due to recent events - and those that are predicted to occur in the near future - the loss/waste figure is likely to continue to rise. Not as a result of an increase in piracy - at least not in the long term - but because the volume of trading (i.e. the number of materials entering the market) is decreasing rapidly.

Thus, while the number of loss/waste events does not appreciably increase, the % of loss/waste will (perhaps already has) increased dramatically. Hence, we see 100%+ increases in the value of certain items/materials over short periods of time.