Market Discussions

So as we all know minerals are shooting through the roof in response to the coming changes. Every one is gobbling them up like theres no tomorrow. Because most of these minerals are being hoarded, as well as the fact that many people are rushing to start mining as quickly as possible the market is becoming over-saturated with minerals right now. At some point the flood gates are gonna open and we will have a crash. I am a small investor (only about 1.5 bil) and have stacked my entire fortune on this bubble. I'm wondering if any of you had opinions on when this thing is going to come crashing down. Right after april 24th perhaps? Or a little while later as everyone feels out when to sell? Or maybe right before? I'm fairly new to the trading aspect of eve and any insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

Sell it all.

Keep ISK. Unless you are buying minerals to make something you need now, sell it all. People look at one stat given out years ago that say Drone poo has 40% of EVE minerals. That is true but only if every mineral in EVE was mined. CCP can't tell you or me how much is being mined by gun or by miner on a given day. They can tell you how much is available from down time to down time. I will take a guess and say that less than 10% of the ore available ever gets taken out of New Eden and there is in fact enough there to keep 100K login in supplied in ships and fits.

T1 Minerals were never bottlenecked. There has always been enough.

Aren't we all? :)

Exactly. And OP is pretty much asking us to do the work for him.

Discussing how and why its going up is cool. Asking us to tell you when to sell is lazy imho.

I was simply discussing the "how and why" of sell off strategies.

No one can ever answer that for sure. There is no way to know. Drone drops gone, meta 0 drops gone. This has never happened before in Eve. Meta 0 drops have been around longer than most Eve players. There has never been an Eve with this much ISK floating around and this much mineral supply. We are at the top of the supper supply of minerals and money.

This ride has only begun.

Yep, I agree with pretty much all of your analyses. The question asked was more about market behavior, "Is the first spike largest, all other spikes getting smaller as we reach equilibrium?" to paraphrase.

In a perfect world that would be a behavior to expect. Drop a pebble in the water, sooner or later the waves go away. We however are droping an unknown sized rock into an unknown sized body of water. Our only refrence point is missions/rats etc earning potential.

When those waves hit the shore, are they going to reflect? Is the resonance such that the waves compound? We just don't know.

And so far those consensus numbers, the "psychological threshold" as you phrase them, have been, for the most part, except one mineral, in line with five year tops. This is quite sensible in the speculative phase, the true impact of supply hasn't made it self felt, and won't until after the 24th.

The demand side of the picture could very well change too, though I must say that is much more difficult to predict.

Right now we know what X is, so 1.6 times X isn't much of a mystery. What is 1.6 times Y? Do you know what Y is? I don't.

I.e. notice how Trit is stuck at about BRN 6 (resistance).

It might grow to above 6 later this week. If it happens, 6 is "broken" and then price will quickly go up and find the next bus stop.


Edit:

And now you can see the "rule of resistance becomes support and vice versa" in action.

Some guys set 2 orders right below 6, they see 6 as a resistance strong enough to stop price so they take profit today.

Other guys see the little dip as neat chance to buy cheaper and will bring price above 6 for a bit.

At this point, if demand > supply or if greed > fear (or both) then more will think: "hey, it went above 6! Let's jump on the bandwagon" and thus they start buying. At this point, the sellers will think "dammit, price went above 6, we were wrong, let's stop selling". 6 ISK pu at this point becomes support and propels price up to the next goal, which certainly will be 7, but could also be an intermediate number of the past (that unlike a BRN is a factual demand vs supply equilibrium not just psychological).