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Crazy Market Prices

Author
Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#41 - 2012-04-09 16:39:23 UTC
Unholy Reindeer wrote:
Itis Zhellin wrote:
Vaal Erit wrote:
...
-People not building/mining in fear of Burn Jita and Hulkageddon operations
...

Being new to the game, wanna ask why should I care about this? In fact, why should I care about Jita as long I can sell my stuff in Dodixie at the same price and rate. Dodixie is much closer to my base and have less gankers. Just trying to understand the basics..


Because Jita is bigger :D
It's much often regarded as the trading capital. Dodixie is the second largest.


Nah... I'm pretty sure Amarr is much bigger than Dodixie, and Rens may be as well. :o

- Rei

Brutus B
Brigand Brigade
#42 - 2012-04-09 16:41:53 UTC
A lot of people have said what is causing the prices to go up, and are dead on about it. It's a pefect storm of lots of things that are shooting up prices, but like all storms they come and go, but how long this one will last is completely uncertian because of one little truth: MINING SUCKS. IT REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY SUCKS. Same time I can spend in a hulk in highsec and mine a million or so isk of minerials is the same time it takes me to make 10 or 20 or 30 million isk in a mach or a phantasim. And that's why you don't really see miners in hisec belts anymore. Oh that and it's so easy to suicide gank them, (which I have done on several occassions myself, often enough to know mining is dangerous, and that a different fit than then the optimal mining configuration is required for longterm survival. So, right now the mining equation = high risk + low reward. Part of the low reward is that it is simply not fun to mine. IT's so not fun that now that there is a long war against bots doing the mining, that it will take more a lot more isk to bilk the miners into unloading their minerals into the market. Once it becomes profitable enough to endure the insane boredom of mining, than the markets will level out. If their ever becomes a significant oversupply of mins again in the future, than the market will crash, or at the very least slump. As always there will be some overspeculation that ends up costing somebody a small fortune. The peaks and valleys are never as high or low as the most greedy imagines them to be.



Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#43 - 2012-04-09 18:02:47 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Jas Dor wrote:

Excluding T2 goods these prices are high even for 2007 (for one thing Trit was around 2.5/unit back then). Drake is at 53m now. I expect it'll top 60m by the end of the week.


Lets say a hulk is going to pull 1600m/3 minute (about what you would expect from a hulk that is near maxed out according to EFT). =50000000/60/( (1600/71.17) *1000)

If the miner is mining veld and wants to make 50m/hours that gives us a price for trit of around 37. For 20m/hour it gives us 14.82.

Unless CCP caps mineral prices, things are going to get interesting. It isn't just a matter of nerfing incursions. CCP would need to nerf level 4 missions blow the 20m / hour point to make mining worth it.

Conclusion: most miners were bots and CCP just opened up a can of consequences in banning them.


Your numbers are off by a factor of about 4 (or more).

Solo hulk in hi-sec, maxed out with T2 strips, T2 crystals and level V skills (no implants) will mine about 95k m3/hr, including dock/unload time. If Tritanium is selling for 6.67, that makes regular Veld worth 200 ISK/m3. Therefore 200 * 95k m3/hr = 19M ISK/hr.

As for the original poster, I present to you the EVE Mineral Price Index. As it goes up, so do T1 product prices.

http://www.evemarketeer.com/trade/mineralindex


You are correct. I misread the ore chart found here http://eve.grismar.net/ore/ as giving 333 veld a m3 of 71.74. In actuality it has a m3 of .1 unit or 33.3. The proper spreadsheet formula is:
=19000000/60/((1600/33.3)*1000)

This gives a cap price of around 17 for 50m/hour.
Zahhadune
Celestial Precision
#44 - 2012-04-09 18:52:42 UTC
Brutus B wrote:
A lot of people have said what is causing the prices to go up, and are dead on about it. It's a pefect storm of lots of things that are shooting up prices, but like all storms they come and go, but how long this one will last is completely uncertian because of one little truth: MINING SUCKS. IT REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY SUCKS. Same time I can spend in a hulk in highsec and mine a million or so isk of minerials is the same time it takes me to make 10 or 20 or 30 million isk in a mach or a phantasim. And that's why you don't really see miners in hisec belts anymore. Oh that and it's so easy to suicide gank them, (which I have done on several occassions myself, often enough to know mining is dangerous, and that a different fit than then the optimal mining configuration is required for longterm survival. So, right now the mining equation = high risk + low reward. Part of the low reward is that it is simply not fun to mine. IT's so not fun that now that there is a long war against bots doing the mining, that it will take more a lot more isk to bilk the miners into unloading their minerals into the market. Once it becomes profitable enough to endure the insane boredom of mining, than the markets will level out. If their ever becomes a significant oversupply of mins again in the future, than the market will crash, or at the very least slump. As always there will be some overspeculation that ends up costing somebody a small fortune. The peaks and valleys are never as high or low as the most greedy imagines them to be.





Visit just about any system before downtime and you will find just dust left in the belts... They all get cleaned out.
Javajunky
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#45 - 2012-04-09 19:02:12 UTC
Mining doesn't suck, it's just out of balance but more importantly - it's working as intended.

I have been a miner for a couple of years and I've always enjoyed it. The mechanics are not broken you just need to take in context.

....It's great to do if you're hanging out, shooting the breeze on comms with friends.

....It's great to do if you're standing around with you main pilot in a fleet stuck somehwere grinding sov against a no show enemy.

....it's great to do if you want something low key no stress and maybe grab a movie

What's funny people find it boring and others find it relaxing.. personally I find grinding havens, sanctums or LVL 4's tedious as hell. So to each his own.
marie claude
Space Underground
Silent Infinity
#46 - 2012-04-09 19:29:46 UTC  |  Edited by: marie claude
good lord none of you get it. if you complain that incursion fleets make too much isk (by the way there is no such thing as making too much isk) you should shut up and form a fleet and make some isk. when you try this and realize that it takes lots of skill and capital to do incs you will see why incs should pay better. for gods sake well trained and well fitted pilots should be able to make money like its free. thats what a real economy is about. the prices are going up simply because ccp let it be known drones wont poop soon and the bot miners are all gone. tbh the bot miners were a boon to the economy i miss them already. and you do too even if you dont admit it. elite pilots deserve elite income. ppl who coast along and mine and whine they dont make isk need to hush o train better skills. donr spend another mans money go get your own. in the end only ccp can destroy eve....sometimes it looks like that has been the goal all along.

edit: and rally mining is like havein a target on your head new hi sec mining pilots need a safe place to mine (oh yes there will be tears about carebearing ect pi$$ off all mmo need a place to grind shooting unarmed ships for fun makes you a punk nothing more)








in space only CCP can hear you scream.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#47 - 2012-04-09 19:47:03 UTC
@Above. Obvious trolling?

- defends incursions

- thinks anyone here is against prices rising (we are all making mad money on it thank you)

- tells bots are a good thing.


Expecially the bots, they are BAD, they should all burn in digital hell.
Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#48 - 2012-04-09 19:48:22 UTC
Perihelion Olenard wrote:
Why have the market prices for ships gone up by such an extreme amount in the past month? Ships are becoming unaffordable for combat pilots who do missions to make isk. ... deletia....


Honey, you ain't seen *nothing* yet ... Pirate


Mook

Ticarus Hellbrandt
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#49 - 2012-04-09 20:06:45 UTC
Prices on items have been cheap for a long time and now they have sharply caught up. not to mention the various conflicts around eve and the rise in mineral prices have all contributed.

Nub Sauce
State War Academy
Caldari State
#50 - 2012-04-09 20:10:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Nub Sauce
There are two sides to prices going up. One is the speculation, bot bans, ect... The other side is that prices will only go as high as the ISK faucets allow. If loads of people are making fat ISK from incursions and missions then prices go up. Especially if the ISK is good enough to draw miners away from mining and over to an ISK faucet.

If the faucets don't get nerfed then the only solution is inflation. Prices of minerals will inflate until it is deemed 'worth it' to mine by enough people. We'll then have a balanced economy. It's been heavily unbalanced due to bots for years. The game isn't breaking, it's recovering. The mining profession is becoming viable again; as a human rather than a bot army. This is intended.

Edit: As for the PVPers who refuse to partake in ISK making activities, it's time to start fighting for resources rather than epeen waving. And to the PVPers who have been fighting for resources this whole time, well, it's likely they are already space rich and aren't going to be hurt by the inflation at all; as intended.
ComradeEngineer
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#51 - 2012-04-09 20:49:59 UTC
Prices could be increasing based on an anticipation that prices will rise in the future due to market externalities ie. goonswarm is going to attempt to burn jita, hulkageddon, drone loot being nerfed. In such circumstances that these market externalities become manifest, and increase in prices ensures that there is not shortages in the market for various commodities. An increase in prices is going to provide incentive to people to produce in order to take advantage of the greater returns.

General price level increases can be caused by an expansion of the monetary (isk) supply. I encourage people to watch the following clip where Milton Friedman is talking about inflation:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgSqZKx0mNI&list=UU51_awyLXl2nxCduuzzmw4w&index=2&feature=plcp
Brewlar Kuvakei
Adeptio Gloriae
Train Wreck.
#52 - 2012-04-10 01:01:43 UTC
Who played eve when a battleship was something to behold and not a common every grid site. Well here comes those days.
Perihelion Olenard
#53 - 2012-04-10 01:23:51 UTC
Brewlar Kuvakei wrote:
Who played eve when a battleship was something to behold and not a common every grid site. Well here comes those days.

The same was true for pirate battleships. Now they are common as well. I saw a vindicator at a gate and say oh nice, a vindicator. Then I saw another one the next jump. Then another.
Korsiri
Defying Vision
#54 - 2012-04-10 01:27:49 UTC
Thing is people have to get in this game, is that your traditional pew pew isn't the only style of PVP.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#55 - 2012-04-10 01:30:50 UTC
Years back years, I went over to a friends house, 2005-2006 and I remember watching him play this eve online.

I told him how much his game sucked and why he should play the one im playing, and vice versa.

Somewhere along the lines as I watched some ship seemingly warp off some where, he was explaining that he wanted some minerals and he was warping to where there are less people destroying the belts.

then he finished mining docked up and showed me some crazy stockpile of different minerals and items a few BPC's and what he seemed to really fancy was a BPC of some Caldari ship, which he said he bought really cheep and couldn't wait to finally gather enough minerals to build.

I asked him , how long have you bin mining to get enough minerals, He said 2 and a half weeks.


The point is, that's how it should be, people should anticipate such events as BIG, Building your first Battleship, getting into your first cruiser, people have lost sight of small joys of eve.

Never the less, when the prices EVEN out, the mining profession stands a very good chance of actually becoming a profession, even thought 97% of people simply hate mining, the other 3-6% just cant wait to get rich doing what they love!.

as mineral prices go up, people will be more careful with their ships, they will think 3 times before gonking some newbie, or declaring war on some infantile new corporation, these changes are welcome.

The prices thought, are indeed growing a bit to fast for most people to adapt to, and mission rewards appear to have bin left in the dust, interesting how this is going to play out, I have a feeling CCP has some kind of a big plan in the making.

As for the people who are complaining, well, perhaps now is an excellent time to get a foot in the manufacturing buisness you always had in the back of your mind.
Bremmenn
Imperial Aegis
#56 - 2012-04-10 02:13:32 UTC
Scrapyard is dead on- and others.

These are some numbers from ohh, late 2007 to early 2008.

Trit 2.4
Pye 9.25
Mex 21.10
Iso 103
Nox 400
Zyd 2000
Meg 3800

Abaddon build cost then 153,900,000
Rokh 143,700,000
Hyperion 153,000,000

Build cost today at Jita prices
Abaddon 243,000,000
Rokh 219,000,000
Hyperion 238,000,000

Depending on the current hour of manipulation of course lol,

be well
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#57 - 2012-04-10 03:28:43 UTC
And, from what I recall - shuttles were still sold by NPCs back in '07, which capped Tritanium price at around 2.2 ISK or so (shuttles sold for 6500 ISK? reprocessed into 3000 trit?). Maybe the cap was 2.5 ISK/u (7500 ISK shuttles).
Beckie DeLey
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#58 - 2012-04-10 05:00:52 UTC
Ships are still too cheap. Losses need to hurt even more than now.

Makes for a more interesting game.



I keep hearing about "old times" when losing a battleship or even a cruiser was a big deal that couldn't be offset by running two missions. Sounds awesome.

My siren's name is Brick and she is the prettiest.

Kreeia Dgore
24th Imperial Crusade
Amarr Empire
#59 - 2012-04-10 06:46:50 UTC
I don't have an accurate idea about the ideal price of ships as most of you do, the only idea i have is that ships shouldn't be so cheap one could simply break dozens of them with no real pain felt. Current state seems too close for me to that, so i am up for things getting more expensive.
Also, right now a serious percentage of reasonably populated high sec belts are stripped in 10 hours after the servers are up. Most systems are out of ore long before the restart, so no mineral income boost is going to happen simply because the ammount of ore is not infinite. The more distant highsec systems, on the other hand, are quite rich with asteroids, but noone mines them because of hauling issues and because you will be far too simple target for gankers.
So, unless more asteroids are added into highsec or exhumers will be made more endurant so that ship with one fifth of their price can't kill them, there is no more ore comming from safe space.
I don't know about lowsec or nullsec, i won't express myself about those.
Raven Ether
Doomheim
#60 - 2012-04-10 08:11:52 UTC
Kreeia Dgore wrote:
I don't have an accurate idea about the ideal price of ships as most of you do, the only idea i have is that ships shouldn't be so cheap one could simply break dozens of them with no real pain felt. Current state seems too close for me to that, so i am up for things getting more expensive.
Also, right now a serious percentage of reasonably populated high sec belts are stripped in 10 hours after the servers are up. Most systems are out of ore long before the restart, so no mineral income boost is going to happen simply because the ammount of ore is not infinite. The more distant highsec systems, on the other hand, are quite rich with asteroids, but noone mines them because of hauling issues and because you will be far too simple target for gankers.
So, unless more asteroids are added into highsec or exhumers will be made more endurant so that ship with one fifth of their price can't kill them, there is no more ore comming from safe space.
I don't know about lowsec or nullsec, i won't express myself about those.


Not to be evil, but that is a ******** perspective.