Market Discussions

So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita.

In past 24 hours Jita had 45000 jumps.

Lets half that for number of unique players. That gives us 22,500 jumps.

Lets figure 10% of those are "high value targets" (I'd personally put the number at more like 20% but ok). That means an average of 94 high value jump ins an hour

Lets figure the goons want to kill at least 10% of that number. We'll make this 10 deaths an hours.

Jita is a 0.9 system. A ship can normally get off one, but not two, volleys before getting concorded.

A T2 fit tornado Alphas about 11K with all skills V. A T1 fit alphas around 8000. A freighter has 200,000 EHP requiring 25 ships for the kill. A freighter has less EHP than a properly tanked Orca (by far the most common ship type around Jita these days).

This gives a minimum T1 fit op tempo of at least 250 ships/hour or 6000 ships/day. Assuming a cost of 50m ship this will give us a daily burn rate of 3 Trillion isk/day. Some of this will be offset by loot drops. Lets say half. The goon supposedly have a monthly income of around 1.5 trillion. If they have saved for this for six months, then burn Jita could run for about six days.

Keep in mind this is assuming a low ball ship costs, max skills and a descent recovery rate. All of this to blow up one in every hundred ships heading into Jita.

Conclusion: In a fight between the goons and the market, bet on the market.

From what I've seen, Goons take this game way more seriously than anyone else. So it's likely that they do care about losing isk.

Also, all those ships etc have to be bought from somewhere. I wonder where...

Wooo, business! :D (Though the guy I'm selling to has the right to only take part of the order, boo @ agreements).

You're cute.

It's not really an issue per se. Just run logi escort fleet if you really need to get through.
May even drum up temp business for corps does the escort service.

Amarr's not that far away anyway, it'll serve as backup hub in the remote case SHTF.
They can't keep it up forever.

Now the next question here, who's profiting?

Yes, it take less than a dozen T2 fit ships to kill a freighter in a 0.5 system where each attacking ship can cycle its guns twice. That is a large difference from a 0.9 system with concord on grid. Also I am assuming T1 fits as I don't think an invention based supply chain can keep up with that op tempo (could be wrong on that).

The Mittani has called for 1,800 fit tornados. Assuming a T2 fit that will allow him to kill 90 freighter in Jita. That'll be an hour of glory but it'll hardly burn Jita to the ground. Hell, even if the goon decided to use those ships to get one ship/one shot kills on industrials they could not even kill 10% of one days total traffic through Jita.

Whomever thought this up failed to look at the jump totals for Jita on Dotlan.

Those jump numbers include a Tuesday and a patch. I expect your announcement will be good for Orca sales, nothing more.

Jita might not burn... But its going to be fun watching the fire starters...

I just hope that it actually happens, cause I have my doubts...

Did you really mean to post that under the corp/alliance ticker that you used?

You don't understand the concept of "massive alpha", do you?