Market Discussions

lol

a "trolld" and a "umad?" in a row. two people post without thinking, two people get called on it, two people revert to cheap logical fallacies instead of just admitting they posted without thinking

maybe you'll both think before you post next time

probably not though

(From post #43)

Would appear to have come through (and ongoing)

i accidentally all the tech

Several million units is nothing at this point. More importantly though, there's no actively traded stockpiles to be dumped into spikes and the like, that would counteract what I can do to the market. If someone's got a million units in a hangar it's because they forgot about it and I can ignore it.

you really should just ignore akita T's pathological need to be right even if it means resorting to semantics and "nitpicking"


just fyi

No one wants to stick out their neck with a brave guess at how it might go?

Akita?

I stuck mine out with the "going nuclear" one - Must be someone else at the bat now

Too many variables, and most of them are no longer economic in nature, but rather political.

A fairly large relevant one would be the likelihood of the newly-announced Technetium "cartel" to actually happen in reality, its extent, its effectiveness in keeping their members gruntled and respecting pricing values.
The largest relevant variable (when will CCP announce that they are doing something about it at a precise future date) is a complete unknown to me (might still be unknown for everybody else, but maybe not so completely), and the "success" of the variable above might very well influence it.

Assuming CCP does nothing until, say, next year or later, and assuming the OTEC is a near-total adoption success, it would be quite likely for all producible technetium to be safely unloaded at 250k, and not be unreasonable to see it do so even at 300k.
The OTEC will be experiencing a rather high initial establishing opposition, as most leftover stockpiles on non-participating members that are no longer extracting (but have inventory left) will be the first ones to be sold off (since they won't be respecting imposed price levels), but if they can manage to push though this "stockpile reallocation" period (non-members or less compliant members unloading stockpiles, compliant members ending up with increasing unsold inventory) which might take anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of months, the increased income levels (even in case not all stocks get sold off in a timely manner) for participants will solidify its cohesion and have a low chance of being dethroned by anything other than impending CCP gameplay changes.
As the price of technetium remains semi-artificially-high, the backwards pressure from lowering T2 item trade volume will slowly but eventually push the rest of the moon minerals towards devaluation, with everything else lowering to "barely worth it" levels (think neodymium at well under 10k, dyspro at under 5k, prom under 3k, most others under 1k) in a matter of months, slowly trending even lower than that, also bringing the profitability of reaction towers down on average, which will have an effect of lowering fuel block usage, but that effect will be noticeably less pronounced.

Of course, it's fairly uncertain whether the cat-herding necessary for the proper establishment of the OTEC can even be pulled off, and in case it can, it's quite likely that CCP might swoop in with a knee-jerk reaction and change something a bit ahead of schedule.
So, again, too many variables (and too many "political" in nature) for anything that can resemble a decent prediction to be possible.

I thought I and my T.A. were the only ones criticized for walls of texts

But yes, if your trading strategy is buy and hold you'll always have the problem of how long to hold.

As Strat's eye opening Dr. Joe says,


Q “How do you know when to stop buying?”

A On the same fax was his handwritten reply, “When it stops going up.”

Q So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up?”

A His handwritten reply, “When it starts going down.”

Q So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up and starts going down?”

A His handwritten reply, “When people start selling.”

I don't see it as a bad thing. The moons are there to be taken. If people don't feel pressed enough to go there and fight for them it's because they don't want or don't deserve them enough.

The point is, when is game is going to be devaluated because of missing fun, CCP will do something about that. And when CCP's system isn't ready, they will do something stupid to solve the situation fast.

I don't see a reason why should there be a roof for tech ? It's CCP's fault to provide a limited ressource to a raising player amount. For reaction POS owners with a high liquidity it's good news, because their concurrents can't pay the next tech batch for the towers. I believe tech is going up to 300k in the mid term.

Don't complain about Goons. They do what everyone with a little bit capitalistic instinct had done. And yes, the military power of Goons will be superior, because they can afford it and others can't. Economical power translates into military power. And as everyone of you could read on EVENews,. they initiated a program for Tengus. They allready have programs for supercarrier and Titans. Well done Mittani.