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Drone Region Nerfs in a Month

Author
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#21 - 2012-03-26 03:35:37 UTC
Short-term, yes it could hit prices like that, long-term it would make the ABC ores more profitable then running anoms or other ISK-making opportunities. Plus it will become profitable to buy and melt existing items on the market as a source of minerals if prices spike too far. So at some point, the market would correct the imbalance.

Null-sec ores being worth 500 ISK/m3 is probably about the long-term number, dropping back to 400 ISK/m3 by the fall. That would be prices approximating:

Trit 5.00 Pye 6.50 Mex 65 Iso 100 Nocx 520 Zyd 2800 Mega 4000 Morph 7500
Veld 150 Scor 137 Pyro 181 Plag 182 Omb 110 Kern 189 Croc 508 Bist 511 Ark 560

Or if you want to be more pessimistic:

Trit 6.50 Pye 7.50 Mex 75 Iso 120 Nocx 650 Zyd 3200 Mega 5500 Morph 9000
Veld 195 Scor 171 Pyro 221 Plag 212 Omb 132 Kern 222 Croc 585 Bist 634 Ark 740

I'm not sure that Ark can maintain that price premium as every last scrap will be mined out.
Antonios Tiberius
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#22 - 2012-03-26 03:56:39 UTC
Well, at the moment in Jita Zydrine prices are now at sell-1900 buy-1700.
SamtheDog
Singularity.
#23 - 2012-03-26 05:49:59 UTC
Antonios Tiberius wrote:
Well, at the moment in Jita Zydrine prices are now at sell-1900 buy-1700.


That was me. I just put another 20bn into zydrine at around 1600-1700 isk/unit.

It's a modest bump to the 320M stockpile which is now 330M units of zydrine. I do feel that it is very much worth it in the long term to hold onto zydrine. I can only imagine what will happen in May.

However, some people were paying 3000 isk/unit for zydrine which tells me something. Regardless if you think I'm insane or not, my isk value nearly increased by 250bn in profit in a few days. However, I'm not looking at making a cool trillion isk, I want ot make THREE trillion isk iwth a nice 2.5 tn in profit.

So yes, I'll be happy to buy more zydrine. But as people are hesitant to pay more now and hoping for cheaper prices, sellers are debating if they need quick isk or will bank on more profit later. Regardless of all this, the trend for zydrine is going high very fast, and the people willing to pay for this know something that most don't and that is eve's history.

Sam
Tobiaz
Spacerats
#24 - 2012-03-26 12:48:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Tobiaz
Some people REALLY have too much money! Shocked

It's cool that you guys play the same game like everyone else... only not. And seem to have fun doing so. Big smile

Operation WRITE DOWN ALL THE THINGS!!!  Check out the list at http://bit.ly/wdatt Collecting and compiling all fixes and ideas for EVE. Looking for more editors!

Mr Blue
The Legion of Spoon
Curatores Veritatis Alliance
#25 - 2012-03-26 14:13:10 UTC
last I checked drone region alloys hold very little zyd, but much more nocxium. then again Ive no idea how much of that accually supply market in jita
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#26 - 2012-03-26 14:20:34 UTC
Exactly, zydrine was speculation. It will hit nocxium much harder:

|| Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% ||
||-----------||------||-------||------------------||
|| Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% ||
|| Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% ||
|| Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% ||
|| Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% ||
|| Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% ||
|| Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% ||
|| Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% ||
|| Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||

Kara Roideater
#27 - 2012-03-26 14:25:46 UTC
40% = very little?
Mr Blue
The Legion of Spoon
Curatores Veritatis Alliance
#28 - 2012-03-26 14:32:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Blue
http://www.eve-guides.com/Ore/alloys.php should give you a clear picture.

the question isnt if minerals gonna go up, because it will. question is how many hidden stacks is there in someones hangar and how much will the speculation effect the prices(both long and short term).

right now mega and zyd speculators is very vocal, zyd have been alrdy "bursted once" , tho ive no doubt prices will go up again as its a lot of speculators working with it atm. the question is more like, will the speculators touch the other minerals aswell?

Ive personally made 3-4b (I only have 10b liquid to speculate with atm) so far on the zyd and mega, tho I sold myself out and bought 7b of nocx...(so there you got my agenda). I also got a nice stash of isogen, but Im got the feeling market might be able to adjust itself and compensate for the iso loss(by mining more/looting more) on that one.
Steve Celeste
Doomheim
#29 - 2012-03-26 14:34:40 UTC
I can still remember 90 isk Nocxium, so I don't trust that mineral....
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#30 - 2012-03-26 14:42:57 UTC
I am not an industrialist, but as much as I have seen, zydrine consumption in ships usually is very low. And yes, 40% is low for more than 100% price increase during the last days. Those who bought it earlier are now just encouraging to buy their stockpile out. Big smile
Lt Angus
Goat Herders
#31 - 2012-03-26 15:12:00 UTC
zydrine was 3500+ before drone regions, whether all the other things that have changed since then will affect it getting there again is yet to be seen but its exciting times thats for sure Cool
Adunh Slavy
#32 - 2012-03-26 15:57:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
More to the landscape than just minerals and money is changing. This is hard to quantify, or even be 100% sure as to the direction things will go, so use salt to taste.

Crimewatch and Wardec changes are going to lead to increased PVP in high sec. This is a pure speculation on my part based on little more than gut feeling. As the systems become more "fair", more people will be willing to participate. Now of course this is Eve and it may be short order before some amusable mechanic is discovered and all my assumptions are worth zip. If my gut is right, more ships will be blowing up and more people will be happy to let them blow up, even their own.

A second thing not much yet discussed is shield booster charges, also mentioned as a coming change but so far not discussed, we don't have enough details. These things are going to use up something, and I am going to guess, based on the only similar item in the game, cap boosters, that these new charges will consume minerals. How popular they are in high sec is debatable as it applies to crimewatch and the new wardec system, but I suspect they'll make an impact on nullsec and lowsec, and consume more minerals.

If these charges are successful and popular with players, I'd not be surprised to see the new mechanic expanded into other types of modules.

Edit - " amusable mechanic " is a typo overlooked by the spell checker. It is supposed to read "abuseable mechanic", since there is no word "abuseable" I suppose I can't fault the spell checker too much. Amusable seems appropriate however, so left as is.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Mercur Fighter
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#33 - 2012-03-26 16:22:18 UTC
JD Rocketfeller wrote:
According to Fanfest slide that said "drogue region iteration". They didnt really talk about it though so I imagine it will be a stealthy nerf.


It's times like these when I wish I had invested in 100 mil units of zydrine, instead of 35 mil. Prices might have gone up but either way I'm not happy :P
Nick BlueStar
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#34 - 2012-03-26 17:11:14 UTC
To quote a movie:
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, pigs get eaten."

Hemmo Paskiainen
#35 - 2012-03-26 20:40:42 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Short-term, yes it could hit prices like that, long-term it would make the ABC ores more profitable then running anoms or other ISK-making opportunities. Plus it will become profitable to buy and melt existing items on the market as a source of minerals if prices spike too far. So at some point, the market would correct the imbalance.

Null-sec ores being worth 500 ISK/m3 is probably about the long-term number, dropping back to 400 ISK/m3 by the fall. That would be prices approximating:

Trit 5.00 Pye 6.50 Mex 65 Iso 100 Nocx 520 Zyd 2800 Mega 4000 Morph 7500
Veld 150 Scor 137 Pyro 181 Plag 182 Omb 110 Kern 189 Croc 508 Bist 511 Ark 560

Or if you want to be more pessimistic:

Trit 6.50 Pye 7.50 Mex 75 Iso 120 Nocx 650 Zyd 3200 Mega 5500 Morph 9000
Veld 195 Scor 171 Pyro 221 Plag 212 Omb 132 Kern 222 Croc 585 Bist 634 Ark 740

I'm not sure that Ark can maintain that price premium as every last scrap will be mined out.


you forget the the chaining mechanism of NPCíng. This basicly means that the high end battleships were killed much more and artificialy raising supply of only high end ores...... IOW your estmate prices will double at least for the top high ends...

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#36 - 2012-03-26 21:01:24 UTC
lafforet wrote:
Exactly, zydrine was speculation. It will hit nocxium much harder:



I ordered my "I Love Nocx" t-shirt from CCP right after the Dr. E flatly refused to comment about Drone Alloys, several times -- with a "cat that ate the canary" grin on his face the whole time. Blink

Grab a few cold ones and enjoy the ride !

Mook
SamtheDog
Singularity.
#37 - 2012-03-26 23:02:16 UTC
Mr Blue wrote:
http://www.eve-guides.com/Ore/alloys.php should give you a clear picture.

the question isnt if minerals gonna go up, because it will. question is how many hidden stacks is there in someones hangar and how much will the speculation effect the prices(both long and short term).

right now mega and zyd speculators is very vocal, zyd have been alrdy "bursted once" , tho ive no doubt prices will go up again as its a lot of speculators working with it atm. the question is more like, will the speculators touch the other minerals aswell?

Ive personally made 3-4b (I only have 10b liquid to speculate with atm) so far on the zyd and mega, tho I sold myself out and bought 7b of nocx...(so there you got my agenda). I also got a nice stash of isogen, but Im got the feeling market might be able to adjust itself and compensate for the iso loss(by mining more/looting more) on that one.


Nocx? Very risky imho. Nocx was never really meant to be so high. The 6x price jump is already unprecedented.

As I mentioned earlier, zydrine has been far too low for too long, and when you see that, you know eventually things will be modified. Nocx is abnormally high atm. To suggest it will go even higher is somewhat questionable and goes against the historic patterns withing the game seen by players over the years.

However, best of luck to you on your gamble.

Sam
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#38 - 2012-03-27 00:39:40 UTC
SamtheDog wrote:
To suggest it will go even higher is somewhat questionable and goes against the historic patterns withing the game seen by players over the years.


Says the blowhard who called for 13k zyd.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

SamtheDog
Singularity.
#39 - 2012-03-27 00:48:22 UTC  |  Edited by: SamtheDog
corestwo wrote:
SamtheDog wrote:
To suggest it will go even higher is somewhat questionable and goes against the historic patterns withing the game seen by players over the years.


Says the blowhard who called for 13k zyd.


I stand by the prediction, and I put nearly 340bn isk into it to back it up.

Did you put your isk where your beliefs are or did you just put a token amount of isk into your view?

Sam
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#40 - 2012-03-27 02:04:34 UTC
SamtheDog wrote:
I stand by the prediction, and I put nearly 340bn isk into it to back it up.



So you say.



And yes, I've got isk invested. No doubt a "token" amount to someone who claims to have a third of a trillion invested, but it's there. Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if your prediction were right. I just very much doubt it is. Lol

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo