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What is driving recent increase in Plex value

First post
Author
Fango Mango
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2013-09-19 21:01:56 UTC
I'm a very small player in the plex market, keep anywhere from 0->200 at a time so I've kept an eye on it for the last couple of years and the recent surge doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Factors that I think may be driving up Plex prices . . .
1) Crappy expansion = less people want to play or at least want to spend more RL money on Plex (lowers supply)
2) Everyone who built battleships pre-patch is making 40-60 million ISK per ship. Like the Faction Warefare push from last year but on a smaller scale. (increases demand)
3) Deflation in other areas (minerals post ship building rush, meta item). (increases demand as people move to a "safer" investment).


Factors that I think should be driving down plex prices
1) End of summer. People are returning to Eve (in the past I have noticed that this increased supply)
2) No CCP special offers (fanfest/tournament/video cards) for PLEX that increase demand.

What else is going on?
I have very little knowledge of how null sec politics affects plex prices. I would not expect null sec alliance/players to finance their wars with PLEX, but if they do they peace time will decrease supply.

Any other large trends going on that have been effecting the prices?

thanks,
Curious George
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#2 - 2013-09-19 21:29:16 UTC
I saw some days ago a CCP messages explaining the numbers are actually going down at the end of summer...

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Claire Voyant
#3 - 2013-09-19 21:31:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Claire Voyant
It's not increased demand. Why? Because it never is. It is decreased supply from fewer players putting real money into the game, most likely because of the GD controversy over the TOS but it could also be the usual supply-side seasonal slump in the run-up to the next expansion. Look for a price drop in Nov-Dec-Jan. How low it goes is mostly a factor of the hype going into the expansion.
Hammer Crendraven
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2013-09-20 04:02:48 UTC
What ever is causing it, is cyclical. Check the price of plex over several years. This is common.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#5 - 2013-09-20 06:33:52 UTC
Hammer Crendraven wrote:
What ever is causing it, is cyclical. Check the price of plex over several years. This is common.


That's why having multi-year charts is good.
Logical Chaos
Resilience.
DARKNESS.
#6 - 2013-09-20 08:10:37 UTC
Fango Mango wrote:
I'm a very small player in the plex market, keep anywhere from 0->200 at a time so I've kept an eye on it for the last couple of years and the recent surge doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Factors that I think may be driving up Plex prices . . .
1) Crappy expansion = less people want to play or at least want to spend more RL money on Plex (lowers supply)
2) Everyone who built battleships pre-patch is making 40-60 million ISK per ship. Like the Faction Warefare push from last year but on a smaller scale. (increases demand)
3) Deflation in other areas (minerals post ship building rush, meta item). (increases demand as people move to a "safer" investment).


Factors that I think should be driving down plex prices
1) End of summer. People are returning to Eve (in the past I have noticed that this increased supply)
2) No CCP special offers (fanfest/tournament/video cards) for PLEX that increase demand.

What else is going on?
I have very little knowledge of how null sec politics affects plex prices. I would not expect null sec alliance/players to finance their wars with PLEX, but if they do they peace time will decrease supply.

Any other large trends going on that have been effecting the prices?

thanks,
Curious George


May I point out flawed Logic?

1) Crappy expansion = less people want to play or at least want to spend more RL money on Plex (lowers supply)


Could also mean less people want to PLEX their accounts therefore reducing demand as much as decreased offers.

Other than that:

Hammer Crendraven wrote:
What ever is causing it, is cyclical. Check the price of plex over several years. This is common.


This pretty much. You can pretty much always buy PLEX before/during Summer and then sell in Winter for a profit.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#7 - 2013-09-20 12:53:03 UTC
Logical Chaos wrote:
This pretty much. You can pretty much always buy PLEX before/during Summer and then sell in Winter for a profit.

I've been buying all my personal use PLEX once a year during the price slump for as long as I've been using PLEX.

I doubt the discount from buying a year's supply (about 200 PLEX) in advance compensates for the opportunity cost of locking away the isk, but I try not to fuss too much about that kind of thing.

My recollection is that every year there is a period where I look at my PLEX pile and the current price of PLEX and tell myself that I did the right thing, again.
Gavin Seamus
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#8 - 2013-09-20 17:58:58 UTC
Logical Chaos wrote:

Could also mean less people want to PLEX their accounts therefore reducing demand as much as decreased offers.


One does not simply quit EVE.
You PLEX until you run out of isk while not actually playing.
For some of us, this can last indefinitely.
Logical Chaos
Resilience.
DARKNESS.
#9 - 2013-09-20 18:11:37 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Logical Chaos wrote:
This pretty much. You can pretty much always buy PLEX before/during Summer and then sell in Winter for a profit.

I've been buying all my personal use PLEX once a year during the price slump for as long as I've been using PLEX.

I doubt the discount from buying a year's supply (about 200 PLEX) in advance compensates for the opportunity cost of locking away the isk, but I try not to fuss too much about that kind of thing.

My recollection is that every year there is a period where I look at my PLEX pile and the current price of PLEX and tell myself that I did the right thing, again.


I don't say it is the best investment but it is a pretty safe one. And yeah you probably still should not put all eggs into that basket as well.

Gavin Seamus wrote:
Logical Chaos wrote:

Could also mean less people want to PLEX their accounts therefore reducing demand as much as decreased offers.


One does not simply quit EVE.
You PLEX until you run out of isk while not actually playing.
For some of us, this can last indefinitely.


This is probably true for main accounts. But I know that I have left my alt accounts to rot when I had an inactive period only paying for my 2 most used accounts. So PLEX demand still drops.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#10 - 2013-09-20 19:30:21 UTC
Logical Chaos wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
I've been buying all my personal use PLEX once a year during the price slump for as long as I've been using PLEX.

I doubt the discount from buying a year's supply (about 200 PLEX) in advance compensates for the opportunity cost of locking away the isk, but I try not to fuss too much about that kind of thing.

My recollection is that every year there is a period where I look at my PLEX pile and the current price of PLEX and tell myself that I did the right thing, again.


I don't say it is the best investment but it is a pretty safe one. And yeah you probably still should not put all eggs into that basket as well.

I don't consider it to be an investment so much as a price fix. These are just my PLEX for personal use, something that I know I am going to have to buy regardless of the price. I know I'm going to chomp on 15 or so PLEX each and every month. Quitting EVE is not an option I care for and scaling back accounts makes no sense when the value each account generates far exceeds any likely PLEX cost.

And yes, I wouldn't put all my eggs in this or any other basket. No matter how good the eggs or the basket appear to be.

But my logic, or lack thereof, in making this once a year bulk purchase isn't as relevant to this thread as my confidence that the price of PLEX has regular and fairly predictable ups and downs.
Trynya
Doomheim
#11 - 2013-09-20 19:45:51 UTC
It always goes up this time of year you are bad at trading if you didn't notice that and should probably quit.
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#12 - 2013-09-20 20:20:01 UTC
Yes! And give me all your stuffz!!

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#13 - 2013-09-21 00:21:32 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:

But my logic, or lack thereof, in making this once a year bulk purchase isn't as relevant to this thread as my confidence that the price of PLEX has regular and fairly predictable ups and downs.


Your logic is called swing trading and in two lines you show you know more about the markets than many who have a degree in economy.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#14 - 2013-09-24 00:40:19 UTC
People spending RL money (and, therefore, their time) on other games, which, until there is some solid idea of what the winter expansion will offer, is a trend that is not likely to reverse.

CCP needs to release some incredible content "Soon" (TM) to get people's attention, and their sub money.



"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#15 - 2013-09-24 00:44:33 UTC
I feel there's another factor of note - mineral prices are falling, and so are the prices of things built primarily from minerals. This means people with an understanding of the market are selling off mineral-based assets, and looking for alternative places in invest their ISKies.

The next big war should partially reverse this aspect of the trend, although the reduced buying of PLEX from CCP is probably the bigger factor.

TL:DR - we need a new 0.0 war to stimulate the economy.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#16 - 2013-09-24 07:00:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
There's no need to wonder about why and how, only price talks.

(Yes I have omitted a detail, as I am going to make money on that).
Sundiel
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2013-09-24 09:36:07 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
There's no need to wonder about why and how, only price talks.

(Yes I have omitted a detail, as I am going to make money on that).



How did you import tnat into a forex platform?

Lors Dornick
Kallisti Industries
#18 - 2013-09-24 10:44:09 UTC
Logical Chaos wrote:


May I point out flawed Logic?

1) Crappy expansion = less people want to play or at least want to spend more RL money on Plex (lowers supply)


Could also mean less people want to PLEX their accounts therefore reducing demand as much as decreased offers.

People are less prone to part with real money than with isk.

Esp if displeased with the current state of the game.

CCP Greyscale: As to starbases, we agree it's pretty terrible, but we don't want to delay the entire release just for this one factor.

Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#19 - 2013-09-24 12:44:16 UTC
The more interesting question would be imho: is CCP going to take on the role of the FED again and intervene to stabilize PLEX prices?
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#20 - 2013-09-24 12:59:49 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I feel there's another factor of note - mineral prices are falling, and so are the prices of things built primarily from minerals. This means people with an understanding of the market are selling off mineral-based assets, and looking for alternative places in invest their ISKies.

The next big war should partially reverse this aspect of the trend, although the reduced buying of PLEX from CCP is probably the bigger factor.

TL:DR - we need a new 0.0 war to stimulate the economy.


Why do we have to have the war? We're tired and still recovering. I think you (highsec collectively, really) should get together, have everyone declare war on everyone else, and spend several hundred billion isk blowing each other up. If you do it right you can just do an assist chain so you don't even have to really spend anything on the war itself. And this would, in fact, do more to "stimulate the economy" than another nullsec war would, as we spend our isk on lots of non-mineral things, and you'd disrupt all the miners in highsec.


Or you could just admit your idea is sort of dumb and bad and that even really big null wars are farts in a windstorm when it comes to effect on the market as a whole. The entire expenditure on everything - not just mineral based objects, everything - by all sides in the Fountain war was perhaps a couple trillion isk. The mineral market alone moves (if I counted right) ~380 billion isk worth of minerals per day, in Jita alone. Tritanium alone is nearly a 100b isk/day market.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

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