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Mad inflation

First post First post
Author
Ocih
Space Mermaids
#581 - 2012-03-19 10:49:19 UTC
Cpt Kupo wrote:
As a casual player that has recently started to play again, the new prices is slowly making me regret playing again. Who thought Incursions would have such a great impact... What?


Prices arent related to Incursions.

Technecium was at 60K a year ago, it's at 130K now and unlike most everything else, technecium is under strict monopoly.
Skex Relbore
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#582 - 2012-03-19 14:49:45 UTC
Theodemir wrote:
I find it interesting [or a lack of reading skill] to find how 'x' amount of ISK genereated through various means is distributed. I'd have thought there are far fewer incursion runners than there are genuine & botting lvl IV mission runners // ratters. So despite Incursions generating less ISK in a month than NPC bounties, that generated wealth going into far fewer hands[also varied corps & alliances] would have a more profound effect on inflation, especially concerning PLEX



Inflation has absolutely nothing to do with income distribution because currency is a fungible asset thus even if 10 people are responsible for that 25% of the isk entering the economy as long as they are spending it, it's exactly the same as if 10000 were generating that isk. And if they are hoarding it then it most certainly won't be inflationary because it's not being spent.

There is of course something amusing about someone who starts off his post complaining about stupidity only to follow that up by saying something stupid.

Barakkus
#583 - 2012-03-19 17:25:41 UTC
Tippia wrote:

Yes, but that doesn't mean that incursions aren't problematic, since they are doing that with relatively few players doing them — the scaling effect of more people doing incursions are quite shocking.


You won't see a giant influx of people running incursions. From watching various population samples of incursion runners, lots of people just stop running them eventually and more people come in, the number of people running them remains relatively stable in comparison.

http://youtu.be/yytbDZrw1jc

Zircon Dasher
#584 - 2012-03-19 19:04:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Zircon Dasher
Skex and Barakkus have really important points to keep in mind in all of this. I would add two things:

1) Relative to population, the ISK injected into the economy is not linear. As more people pile into incursions the total ISK injection increases at a decreasing rate until the theoretical max is reached. The closer you get to that theoretical point, the ISK merely starts getting distributed over a larger group of characters. Conversely, as population decreases the ISK injection decreases at an increasing rate.

2) There are also mechanics in place that can further limit probable ISK injection. The ironic part is that the mechanic is dependent upon players, and, so far, players have generally preffered to build thier own sandcastles to ruining the sandcastles of others. It would be interesting to see if the efforts of some people in the community to end an incursion ASAP had a significant effect upon the total ISK generated from an entire incursion.

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.

Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#585 - 2012-03-19 19:12:20 UTC
Skex Relbore wrote:

Go look at the graph Liang posted. That' ain't monetary inflation that's price volatility due to fluctuations in supply and demand of goods. Those big spikes those are most likely speculative bubbles. The price increases that everyone is pointing to now are sudden and coincide with two huge null sec conflicts that affect two of most influential supply inputs in the economy


Hard to believe they're speculative "bubbles" because they never came down. The market permanently readjusted upwards - which is what I was getting at.

Quote:

But what about CCPs 13 fold increase in the money supply

Until CCP gives us a value on the increase in raw materials entering the market all the rest is just groundless rationalizing.

To really have a measure on inflation we'd need to be able to compare money supply to the rate at which production inputs are injected into the economy. Show me the volume of minerals, moon goo, and PI entering/leaving the economy relative to the injection of isk and then we can have a real conversation about whether or not their is monetary inflation


Or we can just ask CCP if there's inflation... to which they say yes. And they do have those numbers.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

Degren
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#586 - 2012-03-20 21:56:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Degren
Are there any numbers anywhere that suggest how much of the bounty payouts are from ratting, how much are from complexes and how much are from missioning?

Since all those activities have bounty rewards, I'm curious about what percentage of total ISK is generated by each individual activity.

Until we have those numbers, it seems that as a single activity that takes place in a relatively risk free environment providing roughly 20% of all ISK is a problem.

If we could maybe see just how much money those bounties provide, particularly by region/sec status...well, that'd be something.

Edit: Oh, and it'd also be interesting to see the % of population participating in these activities

Hello, hello again.

Qvar Dar'Zanar
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#587 - 2012-03-21 00:58:09 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Skex Relbore wrote:

Go look at the graph Liang posted. That' ain't monetary inflation that's price volatility due to fluctuations in supply and demand of goods. Those big spikes those are most likely speculative bubbles. The price increases that everyone is pointing to now are sudden and coincide with two huge null sec conflicts that affect two of most influential supply inputs in the economy


Hard to believe they're speculative "bubbles" because they never came down. The market permanently readjusted upwards - which is what I was getting at.

Or we can just ask CCP if there's inflation... to which they say yes. And they do have those numbers.

-Liang


We are clearly not looking at the same items. Yes, they're not at the same prices they were a year ago, but they've come down since 1 month ago. T3 cruisers, to say some.

And how is some inflation bad? Are you aware who are the only people hurt by the inflation? Yes... The ones who have fixed rewards: Mission runners and incursioners. Everybody else will win more money (total amount) because everything is worth more ISK (while the real value stays the same).
Skex Relbore
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#588 - 2012-03-21 02:14:00 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Skex Relbore wrote:

Go look at the graph Liang posted. That' ain't monetary inflation that's price volatility due to fluctuations in supply and demand of goods. Those big spikes those are most likely speculative bubbles. The price increases that everyone is pointing to now are sudden and coincide with two huge null sec conflicts that affect two of most influential supply inputs in the economy


Hard to believe they're speculative "bubbles" because they never came down. The market permanently readjusted upwards - which is what I was getting at.


I'm talking about the really big spikes around PI's release. As far as the upward readjustment goes that was a result in a significant change in the production inputs brought about by the introduction of PI and doesn't represent a sign of inflation.

Quote:

Quote:

But what about CCPs 13 fold increase in the money supply

Until CCP gives us a value on the increase in raw materials entering the market all the rest is just groundless rationalizing.

To really have a measure on inflation we'd need to be able to compare money supply to the rate at which production inputs are injected into the economy. Show me the volume of minerals, moon goo, and PI entering/leaving the economy relative to the injection of isk and then we can have a real conversation about whether or not their is monetary inflation


Or we can just ask CCP if there's inflation... to which they say yes. And they do have those numbers.

-Liang


They may have the numbers to figure it out but they haven't provided the information to us. We'd need a good measure of the total goods in the economy (including contracts tbh) in order to know whether there is any inflation or not. Not all price increases are a sign of inflation and not all increases in the money supply is equal inflation either. there are too many variables to account for to count on those two factors alone.

Monetary inflation caused by an over supply of isk would have manifested in a steady rise in prices as more and more isk accumulated not in sudden extreme shifts that correspond with major in game events that causeed adverse effects on the supply of raw materials.

Adunh Slavy
#589 - 2012-03-21 06:16:24 UTC
Skex Relbore wrote:

Monetary inflation caused by an over supply of isk would have manifested in a steady rise in prices as more and more isk accumulated not in sudden extreme shifts that correspond with major in game events that causeed adverse effects on the supply of raw materials.


Partly true and partly false. Monetary inflation may not cause a rise in all prices leading to the classically stated "general rise in prices" that is commonly labeled 'inflation'. Monetary inflation can however manifest in markets that are rising and falling due to other factors and intensify those price swings.

Earlier you had also said this a day or two ago,

Skex Relbore wrote:

Hell we can't reach a universal understanding of what inflation is how the hell do you think perceptions are going to have a greater increase on prices than supply?


Monetary Inflation - Increase in the money supply. That's all it means, it has no other meaning. The amount of money inflates, gets bigger. That's it.

Price Inflation - Increase in prices. This is the commonly used although highly misleading use of the word. It is the classic Econ 101 usage, "general price increase". Its misleading nature is revealed by the way it is measured, with a basket of goods.

They can't pick just one good or service as there can be other factors that influence price - supply, demand, regulations, impact of substitutes and complimentary goods, etc. They have to pick a basket in an attempt to even out, to mitigate, all those other possible influences upon the price of the individual goods in the basket. The basket attempts to create an average of market behaviors so that the impact of monetary inflation can be isolated.

The purpose of an inflation measure (e.g. CPI) is not to gauge the value of the goods, but the value of the money. (And to put a finer point on it, the money in circulation, which is a point made in the devblog by way of "velocity". A correlation with the CPI that looks pretty good until recently. A correlation that should not be ignored.)

Does Eve have Monetary inflation - Sure does, by 1300% in the period expressed in the blog. Does Eve have price inflation - no, not when measured with the basket.

We have to recognize that, just because the basket doesn't move, does not mean that monetary inflation isn't having an impact. Inflation of the money supply does not always manifest across an entire economy in the same way or at the same time.

My intent is not to go into politics, so any political comments by others for this following paragraph are silly trolls.

Take the US housing situation for example. A lot of money, credit, was directed towards the housing market by regulation. The money supply, for that sector, went up significantly. Within the span of a few years, since credit was easy, a lot of new buyers with "almost free money" went into that market. This drove up demand of housing by people who had the credit to demand the housing. Had that credit not existed or had been more expensive, the demand for housing would not have been able to come about in the first place.

A lack of an increase in general prices does not mean that an inflated money supply is with out impact. Just because basket prices are not going up, doesn't mean some prices are not being influenced by monetary inflation. When there is a supply or demand disruption or change in factors that contribute to price of an individual good, there is more money available to go into that market and consequently, more money that can be pulled out of that market, increasing volitility. It allows that market to support higher prices than it would have other wise and also allows it to fall much further, in absolute number terms, than it could have otherwise.

It is important to recognize the difference between monetary inflation and price inflation and use them correctly. I think the more interesting question is, why isn't the basket going up.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Degren
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#590 - 2012-03-21 06:58:54 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
a lot of awesome stuff


I like you.

Hello, hello again.

MacLuven
EL Bernays School of Strategic Communication
#591 - 2012-03-21 14:20:17 UTC
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#592 - 2012-03-21 15:31:54 UTC


I wonder what the correlation is between people who started playing the game (or started paying attention to price metrics) in the less inflationary periods (say mid 2007) vs those who started in a more inflationary period (late 2008-early 2009)? Looks like quite the swing from mid 2007 to now!

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#593 - 2012-03-21 15:49:43 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Liang Nuren wrote:


I wonder what the correlation is between people who started playing the game (or started paying attention to price metrics) in the less inflationary periods (say mid 2007) vs those who started in a more inflationary period (late 2008-early 2009)? Looks like quite the swing from mid 2007 to now!

-Liang


I wonder what the correlation of NULL SEC trolls in the forums whining about Hi Sec ISK earning ( level 5 missions , Incursions, etc ) is versus the actual implementation of Nerfs to them.
Then on top of that the correlation of NULL Sec isk faucet nerfs to increases in PLEX prices.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#594 - 2012-03-21 16:54:13 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:


I wonder what the correlation is between people who started playing the game (or started paying attention to price metrics) in the less inflationary periods (say mid 2007) vs those who started in a more inflationary period (late 2008-early 2009)? Looks like quite the swing from mid 2007 to now!

-Liang



Interesting graph if it was not for that first few HUGE blips before 2005 you'd see more deflation then inflation (area under the line is larger ). It looks like there were longer periods of deflation then inflation but I may have to break out a ruler to confirm.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#595 - 2012-03-21 17:24:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Liang Nuren
DarthNefarius wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:


I wonder what the correlation is between people who started playing the game (or started paying attention to price metrics) in the less inflationary periods (say mid 2007) vs those who started in a more inflationary period (late 2008-early 2009)? Looks like quite the swing from mid 2007 to now!

-Liang


I wonder what the correlation of NULL SEC trolls in the forums whining about Hi Sec ISK earning ( level 5 missions , Incursions, etc ) is versus the actual implementation of Nerfs to them.
Then on top of that the correlation of NULL Sec isk faucet nerfs to increases in PLEX prices.


I would hesitate to say that anyone who claims that a high income in extremely safe high sec space is a troll. The Risk vs Reward balance IS very ****** up when you compare it to low sec and ****** 0.0. Furthermore, wouldn't nerfing 0.0 ISK faucets result in a reduced PLEX price because there's less ISK flowing into the economy?

On the subject of QQ about Incursions ******* up the economy vs L5 whining - Incursions are a relatively massive ISK faucet (coming in right behind Wormholes in January, IIRC). OTOH L5s pay out almost entirely in LP and are a MASSIVE ISK sink if you actually run them. And a final note - from everything I'm able to gather, high sec Incursions pay out more ISK per member than L5s pay out total (never mind per member!).

Totally neglecting all economic doublespeak, the risk vs reward for running Incursions is totally ****** up compared to other activities I've seen.

-Liang

Ed: Damn, the forums did a number on my post. No, I'm not mad. I just talk this way.

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#596 - 2012-03-21 17:32:08 UTC
Also, if you're going to call me a "raging nullsec troll" for stating what appears to be a pretty unequivocal fact... please also inform me why you believe that group based high sec content should be more lucrative than group based content in low sec, null sec, and WH space.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

Kaivar Lancer
Doomheim
#597 - 2012-03-21 19:50:13 UTC


Thanks for that graph. Doesn't look like anything to be too concerned about.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#598 - 2012-03-21 19:53:26 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Liang Nuren wrote:
Also, if you're going to call me a "raging nullsec troll" for stating what appears to be a pretty unequivocal fact... please also inform me why you believe that group based high sec content should be more lucrative than group based content in low sec, null sec, and WH space.

-Liang


Actually I was trolling for any trolls not just you &you bit hook line & sinker... U mad bro? Seriously though take another chill pill &wash it down with some whine ( I personally am fond of NightTrain the burgendy of apple wines :)
Nope it is not an unequivocal fact that Incursions are ruining the game except for people that are overreacting to it & are blaming them for everything bad that happens in thier game of Eve
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#599 - 2012-03-21 19:56:14 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
reserved
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Therese Ishihara
Council of Exiles
Brave Collective
#600 - 2012-03-21 20:05:24 UTC
Just going off of Jita prices, I expect JF's to cost around 8b in the coming months!