Market Discussions

The reason things are getting more expensive is that isk is easier to come by. While in theory a rifter very well could cost 2 mil in 2-3 years, it would also mean you made 10 times as much isk from common every day tasks. Over time the margins of production typically die out(and it's very quick), meaning most of it mineral costs. It still takes exaclty as long for your navitas to mine for a rifter in 3 years as it did 3 years ago.

Should also point out that there is no reason for inflation to keep accelerating or at all exist, if CCP so prefered they could very wel deflate isk instead.

There are two main drivers for inflation in the big picture.

1) increasing demand (also called demand draw or demand pull). Basically, the more people want something the more they're willing to pay for it. Also, with more money in circulation, people don't have to delay purchases which creates more demand over the whole spectrum.

2) increases in the cost of manufacturing. In an EVE online context, as the prices of minerals rises, the prices of everything else will rise too. The good news here is that it would appear that there is a decent over-capacity with respect to mining so I would expect this effect to become cyclical on the long term as oppsed to a trend.

As long as supply keeps up with demand (or in the best case, that supply outstrips demand) inflation will remain more or less in check. This happens because people want to sell the things they built and if many manufacturers are doing it then they will naturally want to set a "reasonable" price so they don't get under-cut by too many competitors.

The question is this: is there sufficient Indy *capacity* in eve to keep up with demand? I think the simple answer is *yes* but as long as they can make more money running incursions then industrial players will only go back to making ships and modules when those activities become equally profitable. That's probably a bit of a simplification but the idea behind it, namely that things will reach an "equilibrium" as long as capacity out-strips demand, still holds and I think what you'll see on the long term is that once the initial inflationary effects of incursions (and other new "easy money" activities) are worked through the market that things will stabilize again, albeit at higher prices than we had in the past.

The doom scenario, of course, is when supply capacity falls short. At that point the sheer amount of money in circulation will create a demand pull that won't be easy to stop and inflation could become severe. CCP can do something about that by seeding items on the market but I'm sure that everyone, including CCP would be happier if that didn't happen.

likewise, a shortage of mining capacity can be artificially manipulated by seeding items on the market that artifically *pin* the prices of minerals at a given level. They did this before with tritanium (via seeding of shuttles) and it works, although I think everyone would agree that this isn't the solution we'd like.

TLDR; run-away inflation in eve is highly unlikely even with a lot of money in circulation *provided* industrial players have a higher supply capacity than demand can absorb.

T-

...Or a "subset" of products that is representative of the whole. In the real world you can't look at every product being made so economists take a "basket" of products that are assumed to represent what the average consumer buys. If I'm not mistaken CCP does the same to work out their consumer inflation index.

(as an aside, governments sometimes manipulate what's in the "basket" in order to make it look like inflation is growing at a slower rate than it is.... Clinton--and I'm sure other administrations--have done that in the past to make people feel better so that they wouldn't lose confidence in the economy and stop spending money). I don't think CCP would have reason to do that, but it would be interesting to see what they have in the basket and how that changes over time.

T-

Well, I can certainly understand your concern but I don't agree with you. As I said above, the best reasonable prediction is that things will equalize at a higher equilibrium as, in particular, miners switch back and forth from mining to other activities.

The good news for newbies in this is that mining is one of the first things you can do (every rookie ship has a mining laser) and in the worst possible case the prices of minerals will rise to the point that a frigate may cost 1-2 mil isk but mining in high-sec with a rookie ship will pay about that much in an hour anyway.

As in real life, I don't think one can just stare blindly at the absolute numbers. I pay about 10x what my father paid 1/2 century ago for a litre of milk but I also make (in absolute numbers) about 10x what he made in terms of income. These things all really boil down to purchasing power and standard of living. What I'm seeing in EVE is that *yes* we have inflation, but in addition to that more people are able to fly more (more expensive) ships than ever before.

In other words, things have become *easier*, not harder, to afford.... I think you can only really see that if you've been playing the game for a long time and can remember how we used to not rig our battleships because the rigs cost more than the ship and all the other modules combined..... and since it's a computer game and not a real-world economy, as long as the economy remains relatively stable there is everything *good* about putting people in a position to be able to afford to exploit the full capabilities of their characters without endless amounts of isk grinding.

T-

It's not that hard to be a t1 industrialist in null sec. Just smuggle in some cheap t1 BPCs, buy the cheap rat loot and ore that sells on the market, reprocess, and sell rifters or whatever for a decent markup over your cost. I made some decent coin back in the day when I did it. I still have a myrm in the manufacture queue over in Geminate so I don't make my isk that way any more.

As to "soft scamming", it's worth remembering that things cost more in null sec in large part because there are so few supplying it. A lot of corps and alliances forget that it's more important to have enough rifters and whatnot for your people than to have cheap rifters. That premium you pay insures that when you're going on a frig roam, there will be a ship there with your name on it.

When CCP nerfed the drone region I posted somewhere on these forums that this kind of inflation would be the result. All the miners cried NOOOOOOO plz nerf drone region see sea pea - we can make up the gap...

Well, guess what miners - I was right and you were wrong.


CCP - whichever dev is in charge of the economy decisions must not understand the game, play the game or comprehend simple supply & demand issues.

Fix the market - the grind for a beginner just to get into a battlecruiser has become a joke - drakes should be back at 22-24mil, not 40mil.

Even if seeding the the market is the solution - DO IT.

I beg to differ with the idea that this helps newbies by giving them more income by mining, or else, there goes your "diversity and freedom of Eve" out of the window. Because this confesses to the fact that newbies have to mine even if they don't want to, in the current state of the market. For those who enjoy mining, this is fine. But by forcing those who don't down the miner/indie path will result in loss of weeks, if not months of skill points in order to be able to provide themselves with a satisfying income.

Additionally, this will end in newcomers turning away. After all, I don't see Eve Online promoting itself with hundreds of images of lone ships sitting still in space shooting asteroids; which is all about clicking the mouse once per 3 minutes. That certainly wouldn't be the consumer magnet now, would it? Now where do those 100-man fleet battles fit in this picture

Even in the unlikely event that a newbie with a combat oriented gaming experience in mind survives through the ordeal of getting a hulk up and running for a stable income; core skills included, now he's looking at another months of training time to effectively fly, let's say, a t1 battleship. Funny thing is they should've been able to fly it now, had they not been pushed down the path to grind sp for a retriever/hulk but had an effective way of making isk by shooting things in PvE.

Apparently no one would be crazy about playing an mmo game in which they'll have to submit to the rule "In here, you work before you play"

So, no, this doesn't help newbies. At all.

There was a period in 2007 when there was alot of deflation in the market. During the northern hemisphere's summer there tends to be either nil inflation or deflation. CCP employes a economist also & has ways to curb inflation i they see it out of control ( creation of ISK sinks such as taxes, more lp items, etc... )