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44 fails out of 45 attempts at invention

Author
Taedrin
Virtues Corporation
#41 - 2012-03-13 19:44:28 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
It's called chance and probability. This is completely normal.

I've had several batches of Hulk Inventions, batches of 25 and 30, etc. utterly fail many times the past 2 years.

I've also had 10 of 10 successes upon occasion.

It all works out in the end statistically.


Wrong - it is only normal that it has happened to SOMEONE, not that it happened to the OP. This is like car accidents - it is likely that SOMEONE will get into a car accident this year. But it is NOT likely that this someone will be YOU.

Now, it might be normal if the OP's sample size is actually much larger than he is claiming. The larger your sample size is, the more likely that you will find statistically unlikely events - for the same reason that if you increase the number of people in a room, you increase the chances that one of those people has been in a car accident before.
Molang
MyXGamer
#42 - 2012-03-13 22:21:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Molang
I love these posts!! every update or once every other month or so we rehash the probability of inventions. It amazes me how many people still talk about it (yes, I see the irony of this comment).

As a counter to the terrible luck the original poster has. I just want to talk about my 15/20 success with my raven blue print using tuning instructions.

See it all balances out in the end. good luck recovering the costs on that crappy invention luck!
Shayla Sh'inlux
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2012-03-14 10:54:13 UTC
Quote:

Most people struggle with standard deviation theory. 44 fails out of 45 attempts with a 27% chance of success would be well within expectations.


I'm pretty sure it's you that struggles with standard deviation.

The standard deviation of a binominal distribution with 45 trials with a 27% success rate is 2,94.
The expected number of successfull attempts is 12,15

1 success is more than 3 times the standard deviations away from the expected value, making it anything but within expectations. Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen on a given trial, no. It is likely yo happen with enough trials? Sure. Except that no individual ever does enough trials to have a reasonable chance of running into such an occurance.

You'd need to do about 4000 of these 45-trials to approach a 5% likelyhood to have 44 in 45 fail. At 1 day per invention, that'd be about 11 years of nonstop invention.

Now of course invention is probably still fine, but it's still a totally outlandish extreme result.
Lady Ayeipsia
BlueWaffe
#44 - 2012-03-14 13:45:57 UTC
I remember awhile back seeing people talk about deliverying one invention job at a time. If you selected all of your ready invention and click deliver, the first may succeed, but the rest all fail. Is this true?

Also, say I have 2 alts, one invents and has the skills. The other is just for copying, research, and other non invention tasks. I run jobs at a pos. Is it ok to deliver jobs with the non inventing alt, or should all inventions be delivered by the best skilled alt?
Maximille Biagge
Yamagata Syndicate
The Initiative.
#45 - 2012-03-14 15:43:40 UTC
Liselle D'solos wrote:

To put it another way: If I did a million batches of 45 attempts each, only roughly one of these batches should result in only one success


This is where you went wrong, nothign to do with chance "should" ever do anything or be predictable.

hell you could run your 1 million try and fail every single one of the 45million attempts and it would still only be bad luck.
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#46 - 2012-03-14 17:23:47 UTC
Lady Ayeipsia wrote:
I remember awhile back seeing people talk about deliverying one invention job at a time. If you selected all of your ready invention and click deliver, the first may succeed, but the rest all fail. Is this true?


Not true, but superstitious people like to wave feathers and sprinkle blood because it makes them feel better.

Unless CCP is using a really really crappy PRNG, the chance of you getting a success from one job to the next is the same as the last time you hit "deliver". There's no memory effect, just humans seeing patterns where there aren't patterns because our instinct is to spot patterns (such as that predator lurking in the foliage).
Montevius Williams
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#47 - 2012-03-15 02:02:41 UTC
It happens. Watch tomorrow you do 45 attempts again and get 44 out of 45 BPC's. Its rare, but it can happen.

"The American Government indoctrination system known as public education has been relentlessly churning out socialists for over 20 years". - TravisWB

Tauranon
Weeesearch
CAStabouts
#48 - 2012-03-15 08:24:33 UTC
Shayla Sh'inlux wrote:
Quote:

Most people struggle with standard deviation theory. 44 fails out of 45 attempts with a 27% chance of success would be well within expectations.


I'm pretty sure it's you that struggles with standard deviation.

The standard deviation of a binominal distribution with 45 trials with a 27% success rate is 2,94.
The expected number of successfull attempts is 12,15

1 success is more than 3 times the standard deviations away from the expected value, making it anything but within expectations. Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen on a given trial, no. It is likely yo happen with enough trials? Sure. Except that no individual ever does enough trials to have a reasonable chance of running into such an occurance.

You'd need to do about 4000 of these 45-trials to approach a 5% likelyhood to have 44 in 45 fail. At 1 day per invention, that'd be about 11 years of nonstop invention.

Now of course invention is probably still fine, but it's still a totally outlandish extreme result.


A proportion of the entire inventing playerbase is doing exactly this. There has likely been 4000 x 45 trials of similar probability jobs over the history of invention. This kind of result is both inevitable over a whole playerbase, and likely to cause communication by the victim - ie when it occurs, it was likely to be pointed out.
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