These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

EVE General Discussion

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Please Provide Facts, not suppositions, that Eve Economy Broken

Author
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#101 - 2012-03-11 09:32:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Hartmann Pitts wrote:
You claim that incursions is one of the largest contributors of isk to the game per participant. I said per participant is a wrongheaded way to look at it.
You're confusing two different issues:

One is that incursions is a very large ISK faucet. Another is that it's a very attractive ISK faucet due to how much it pays out per person. The former is an issue already; the latter is not just a problem on its own, but can also worsen the first issue.

Quote:
The reason why my number changes is because when you use per participant you are using a different denominator each time you run a calculation. Per capita uses the same denominator. Some how you think this subverts math as we know it?
Because you're claiming that if we look at it per capita, it somehow changes place from being the largest faucet (which it never was) into one of the smallest (which it doesn't, and isn't). You seem to think that adding per capita somehow changes the order of the faucets. It doesn't. Incursions start out as the third largest with its 300bn ISK a day, and it remains the third largest even if we look at that as 430k ISK per character per day.

Quote:
This is the calculation YOU do. YOU DID IT. I told you how I was calculating things. I told you why. You may not think it always applies, but you're calling me a liar. You're not saying, 'hey that doesn't apply in this situation because...'
Same problem here: you're confusing two different issues: one is the affect of the six (actually eight) faucets, where incursion comes it as a strong #3. The other (the one you're talking about now) is how much each participant generates, which on the one hand means that even small variations have large effects, and on the other hand means that incursions are very attractive. The inclusion of all things mission-related into a signle category is for this latter problem: to demonstrate how little effect the individual mission runner has, and to show that we have a new contender for the “why do anything else?” throne (which was previously considered to be held by L4s) and why this is a problematic shift.

Faucets are one thing (and there are eight of them). Activities are another (and there are upwards of a hundred of those, which may or may not activate any number of faucets and sinks).

Quote:
I got my numbers from YOUR blog. They are posted right there. I used your month of January numbers. I posted the numbers that I used. I did the math right there.
…then you did something wrong if it came out as a quarter. As for which one it's closer to, that's problem with relative percentages — they vary in value depending on where on the scale you are. It's the same problem people face when trying to compare resists, for instance, and think that a 3pp difference in resist percentages means something has 3% better resists.

Let's say it's roughly a third: 301.8bn ×3 = 905.4bn → we're off-target by 100bn.
Let's say it's roughly a quarter: 301.8bn ×4 = 1,207.2 → we're off-target by over 200bn.

So no, a third is a closer estimate (and as a bonus, it falls within The Price Is Right-rules… P). By the way, it's not particularly cherry-picked — it's the data CCP made available, and in the cases where they also provided monthly totals, the data for that day largely matches what was the average for the day they chose.

Quote:
Yes, and I've already discussed all this. This is the point where I'm supposed to screech at you to go back and read what I wrote, right?
No, this is the point where you explain why it's not what matters for EVE and why the good Doctor is wrong in worrying about how the growth of the money supply outpaces the growth of production (and destruction). This is the point where you actually address the worries: that in a time when we already have too much ISK entering the economy (which every source available to us tells us is happening), maybe a mechanic that does this far more efficiently than anything we've known so far might not be the best idea, and that scaling it back or converting it into a sink might be a better idea. Also, that having such a spectacularly efficient earner might be bad for the game outside of any economical considerations.

As for any ad hominems, misreadings or cherry-pickings, please point them out. And try to not make another straw man out of it. Roll
Veshta Yoshida
PIE Inc.
Khimi Harar
#102 - 2012-03-11 09:52:27 UTC
You consider an inflation of 12% "pretty good" .. holy mother of ..

Had a long tirade all ready to go, but if the above is your frame of reference then why bother .. Smile
Lexmana
#103 - 2012-03-11 10:09:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Lexmana
Fun facts from CCP Recurve shows that there is an increased inflation rate in the EVE economy beginning in 2010 after a few years of relatively stable prices.

http://community.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&nbid=3295

It is also interesting to see that while consumer price index went up by 13.5% mineral prices went up 17.4%! That might indicate a pressure on consumer prices to rise at an even higher rate in the future when the price of minerals are fully accounted for.

Most will agree that when too much ISK is injected and too little is sinked there will be inflation.

Incursionrunners make (inject) a lot of ISK. It might even be the most efficient way for most players to maximize the amount of ISK they can inject into the economy. As the numbers show, incursionrunners already do inject a size-able proportion of all ISK in EVE today. That is why incursions are a problem.

We really don't need players to become more efficient in injecting ISK.

However, the problem we have now will pale in comparison with what we might have when the another faucet is opened up in the drone regions. Hopefully, CCP is fully aware of that and are currently calculating how they will sink all these ISK. My bet is on a new CONCORD fee for protection in highsec.

http://pastebin.com/jBjcB5Gr
Mr Painless
Perkone
Caldari State
#104 - 2012-03-11 10:12:01 UTC
My 2 cents on this interesting topic.

Many people here draw conclusions about EVE economy's state by comparing it to RL economy. This can be very misleading. Although EVE's economy system is perhaps the closest to RL of any other MMO, it does have some pretty significant differences.

1. The famous "money out of thin air" creates inflation argument. In EVE, money actually really does come "out of thin air", but in RL it doesn't. In RL it is created out of debt, which means it must be paid back, with interest (the latter part being the real problem). The problem with inflation isn't in the way money is created, it's how much of it is in circulation compared to goods/services in circulation.

2. As opposed to RL, virtually every asset in EVE shares one fundamental characteristic with money - it does not spoil, rot, get obsolete, break down or rust (Minmatar ships excluded Smile). This basically means that you can have infinite accumulation of everything, not just money. In some sense, every asset in EVE is money as long as there is demand for it.

3. Many people think that every ISK or other asset earned/created in game is considered to be "in circulation". This is very erroneous. ISK sitting on your personal account is not the equivalent of RL money sitting on your bank account, it is actually equivalent to the money stashed under your bedsheet. It is out of circulation.
When you take in consideration my point 2, this basically means that every other asset in EVE sitting in your station hangars is out of circulation. It goes in circulation when you put it on market buy/sell orders, contracts, POSes or when you undock in space with it.
Opertone
State War Academy
Caldari State
#105 - 2012-03-11 10:20:15 UTC
in eve stuff is supplied by players.

Costs can be measured in man-hours to get the thing done.

Rate of exchange depends mainly on instant demand.

Simply because virtual markets in eve are nearly perfect, no obstacles to move or to trade.

Heck there is not even political and geographical limitations. Outside of null space.

EMPIRE is full of trade hubs, by laws of exchange.

NULL sec is mainly imperfect monopoly, limited competition and single supplier, only one type of product available. Null is like natural resource economies. Supply commodities to empire, costs of industry and risks are outrageous. Export resources, import finished products, lack of variation on the markets.

WH is full barter + delayed payment, no way to organize markets, no stations for infrastructure.

NPC insurance, finance, bounties do not work as intended and are easily abused. Totaly broken.

This post sums up why the 'best' work with DCM inc.

WARP DRIVE makes eve boring

really - add warping align time 300% on gun aggression and eve becomes great again

Opertone
State War Academy
Caldari State
#106 - 2012-03-11 10:33:00 UTC
2nd agrgument

EVE's economy isn't flawless, designed out of real word facts and societies, it lacks certain details, which lead to unnatural outcomes (phenomena).

To break trade hubs - modify station capacity for max clients and vessels that can be serviced. Introduce maximum stored volume by individual businesses and companies.

To break system trade zones - introduce costs of rent, so that small time sellers can not enter hubs, and even bulk sellers settle in less busy systems to improve costs and expenses.

To even out regional trade - more information needs to be available at a cost! Market reports may be serviced by an agent or NPC who fetches data for a fee.

No more market alts which most already have.

To make more contrast in empire trade - restrict products obtained in Democratic Empire to enter the Religious Empire. Restrict Technologies from Hi tech Empire to enter the Labour Empire. Real contraband and trade limitations. NPC tax charges - a whole new ISK sink.

To alter trade and theft - Freigthers need a trade license. No license, not allowed to dock. Volume trade and volume transportation - controlled by Empire Restrictions.

This post sums up why the 'best' work with DCM inc.

WARP DRIVE makes eve boring

really - add warping align time 300% on gun aggression and eve becomes great again

Hartmann Pitts
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#107 - 2012-03-11 17:51:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Hartmann Pitts
Tippia wrote:

One is that incursions is a very large ISK faucet. Another is that it's a very attractive ISK faucet due to how much it pays out per person. The former is an issue already; the latter is not just a problem on its own, but can also worsen the first issue.


I've answered this same basic claim several times. My answer hasn't changed.


Quote:
Because you're claiming that if we look at it per capita, it somehow changes place from being the largest faucet (which it never was) into one of the smallest (which it doesn't, and isn't). You seem to think that adding per capita somehow changes the order of the faucets. It doesn't. Incursions start out as the third largest with its 300bn ISK a day, and it remains the third largest even if we look at that as 430k ISK per character per day.


You wrote:
"aside from showing that they are a massive ISK faucet that surpasses pretty much anything on a per-person level."

I wrote:
"So, Incursions, instead of being the largest contributor to isk in the game as a per capita, is actually one of the smallest inputs into the community, when examined per capital, and therefore it is one of the least possible contributors to rising prices/inflation (assuming that's what people are worried about.) "

You keep interpreting what I wrote in a very narrow way, despite all the evidence from what I have post that demonstrates your interpretation of what I wrote is not justified.

Your tone is much more civil in this post, but you are still just playing semantic games instead of dealing with the substantive points here. This above, is not a substantive issue.


Quote:
Same problem here: you're confusing two different issues: one is the affect of the six (actually eight) faucets, where incursion comes it as a strong #3. The other (the one you're talking about now) is how much each participant generates, which on the one hand means that even small variations have large effects, and on the other hand means that incursions are very attractive. The inclusion of all things mission-related into a signle category is for this latter problem: to demonstrate how little effect the individual mission runner has, and to show that we have a new contender for the “why do anything else?” throne


We're back to you being panicky about what Incursions might do. Yeah, more people might do them. This has not been a point of contention with us.

Will they? As we know, mission running bounties grew faster than Incursion awards over the last month. There are reasons to think people won't.

But you've lost the plot here. I was responding to the sheer dishonest of calling me a liar. I told you what I was calculating and why.

Quote:
then you did something wrong if it came out as a quarter. As for which one it's closer to, that's problem with relative percentages - they vary in value depending on where on the scale you are. It's the same problem people face when trying to compare resists, for instance, and think that a 3pp difference in resist percentages means something has 3% better resists.

Let's say it's roughly a third: 301.8bn ×3 = 905.4bn → we're off-target by 100bn.
Let's say it's roughly a quarter: 301.8bn ×4 = 1,207.2 → we're off-target by over 200bn.

So no, a third is a closer estimate (and as a bonus, it falls within The Price Is Right-rules… P). By the way, it's not particularly cherry-picked — it's the data CCP made available, and in the cases where they also provided monthly totals, the data for that day largely matches what was the average for the day they chose.


A month's worth of data, which you obviously had access to because it was on your blog, has more statistical significance than a day's. You had access to both. You knew which one had more reliability, and you chose the one that worked best for your argument ... and even that ended up not working.

It's an admirable attempt to get out of this, but you screwed up and you screwed up hard. Just apologize for the error and move on.

Quote:
No, this is the point where you explain why it's not what matters for EVE and why the good Doctor is wrong in worrying about how the growth of the money supply outpaces the growth of production (and destruction). This is the point where you actually address the worries: that in a time when we already have too much ISK entering the economy (which every source available to us tells us is happening), maybe a mechanic that does this far more efficiently than anything we've known so far might not be the best idea, and that scaling it back or converting it into a sink might be a better idea. Also, that having such a spectacularly efficient earner might be bad for the game outside of any economical considerations.

As for any ad hominems, misreadings or cherry-pickings, please point them out. And try to not make another straw man out of it. Roll


I have time and time again said I have no skin in the game. I don't care if prices are going up or down. I have no preconceived notion of what "normal" is when it comes to prices in Eve. I am perfectly pliable on the subject of whether or not there is Inflation in Eve and that it could be a problem. I have been asking the same questions: What is the problem with the economy? Is that problem inflation? And is that inflation caused by Incursions.

If we have sources that tell us there's too much isk entering the economy, link them. You've tried several gambits around this point and they've all come up stinkers. But if you had these laying around you should have just put them up in the first place.

You've made an inferential leap between Incursions and inflation in the economy and you refuse to square that circle.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#108 - 2012-03-11 18:01:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Hartmann Pitts wrote:
I've answered this same basic claim several times. My answer hasn't changed.
Then why do you still have problems separating the two?

Quote:
You wrote:
"aside from showing that they are a massive ISK faucet that surpasses pretty much anything on a per-person level."

I wrote:
"So, Incursions, instead of being the largest contributor to isk in the game as a per capita, is actually one of the smallest inputs into the community, when examined per capital, and therefore it is one of the least possible contributors to rising prices/inflation (assuming that's what people are worried about.) "

You keep interpreting what I wrote in a very narrow way, despite all the evidence from what I have post that demonstrates your interpretation of what I wrote is not justified.
…and what you wrote is still wrong. It was never the largest per capita, and counting it per capita still doesn't make it one of the smallest faucets. It definitely doesn't make it one of the least possible contributors, especially not considering the scaling effect it has on the number of participants.

You confusing the issues and incorrectly rejecting claims that were never even made is definitely substantial, because it suggests that you're not properly following or grasping what's being said.

Quote:
We're back to you being panicky about what Incursions might do.
No, not “back” — “still at”, since it is one of the two issues that are being discussed in tandem.
Quote:
A month's worth of data, which you obviously had access to because it was on your blog, has more statistical significance than a day's. You had access to both. You knew which one had more reliability, and you chose the one that worked best for your argument ... and even that ended up not working.
…you mean aside from the fact that I presented both and discussed the difference, and aside from it working just fine. Yeah, no. It's a third. I'm not going to apologise for errors you made.

Quote:
I have been asking the same questions: What is the problem with the economy? Is that problem inflation? And is that inflation caused by Incursions.
…all of which have been answered. The fact that you apparently don't like the answers and reject them out of hand rather seems to suggest that you do have some skin in the game.
Hartmann Pitts
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#109 - 2012-03-11 18:06:52 UTC
Tippia wrote:
[
Quote:
I have been asking the same questions: What is the problem with the economy? Is that problem inflation? And is that inflation caused by Incursions.
…all of which has been answered.


No. They haven't. That's the point. You wave your hands at the amount of isk Incursions generate. You wave your hands in the air and scream inflation. Then you say, "see, proven".

Let's try something easier. A thought experiment. If we didn't have PLEX in the game. Would you consider inflation to be a bad think to happen in the Eve economy? Why or why not?

What about deflation? Why or why not?


I say "if we didn't have PLEX in the game" only because I know there are people who are going through tough personal times and they use the game as a release, and making PLEX really expensive would make it hard on them. So, I'm trying not to be completely heartless.
Hartmann Pitts
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#110 - 2012-03-11 18:10:23 UTC
Quote:
This is the point where you actually address the worries: that in a time when we already have too much ISK entering the economy (which every source available to us tells us is happening)


Quote:
If we have sources that tell us there's too much isk entering the economy, link them. You've tried several gambits around this point and they've all come up stinkers. But if you had these laying around you should have just put them up in the first place.


Where are the links to these sources by the way?
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
#111 - 2012-03-11 18:14:10 UTC
Jeez, get a room you two, you're boring the pants off the rest of us.

Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .

Bumble's Space Log

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#112 - 2012-03-11 18:18:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Hartmann Pitts wrote:
No. They haven't. That's the point. You wave your hands at the amount of isk Incursions generate. You wave your hands in the air and scream inflation. Then you say, "see, proven".
So back to the straw men, eh?

No. I provide the most accurate set of numbers we have so far in regards to the faucets and sinks; conclude that we have a daily net injection of about one trillion ISK. I refer to Dr.EyjoG's statements that we do indeed have a fair amount of inflation. I am saying that in, given this situation, having something efficient as incursions as yet another ISK faucet further inflating the money supply is less than ideal — even more so since it's also so attractive. Any hand-waving is completely of your own making. You are once again making up claims that haven't been made. I'll ask you nicely one more tip: stop it.

Quote:
Let's try something easier. A thought experiment. If we didn't have PLEX in the game. Would you consider inflation to be a bad think to happen in the Eve economy? Why or why not?
PLEX are almost completely economy neutral, so their presence or absence make very little difference. Inflation and deflation would be bad on the same premises that it's always bad: in large amounts. 13% inflation certainly qualifies as a large amount.

Quote:
Where are the links to these sources by the way?
Already posted: the data provided by Diagoras; the presentations made by Dr.EyjoG.
Doomhowler II Augustus
Incestuous Cult of Paranoid Swamp People
#113 - 2012-03-11 18:26:30 UTC
isk inflation is only bad if growth of isk income doesn't keep up
p sure the incursion guys are keeping up so vOv
Adunh Slavy
#114 - 2012-03-11 19:26:47 UTC
Doomhowler II Augustus wrote:
isk inflation is only bad if growth of isk income doesn't keep up
p sure the incursion guys are keeping up so vOv


If prices go up enough, to make using ISK faucets less profitable than doing something else, like mining, then people will go mine, instead of inject ISK into the economy.

That's how it is supposed to work.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Marius Victor
Phoenix Rise Industries
#115 - 2012-03-11 19:59:17 UTC
Eve economy is broken because "What I mined was free".
Hartmann Pitts
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#116 - 2012-03-11 20:47:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Hartmann Pitts
Tippia wrote:
Quote:
Let's try something easier. A thought experiment. If we didn't have PLEX in the game. Would you consider inflation to be a bad think to happen in the Eve economy? Why or why not?
PLEX are almost completely economy neutral, so their presence or absence make very little difference. Inflation and deflation would be bad on the same premises that it's always bad: in large amounts. 13% inflation certainly qualifies as a large amount.


But why do you think inflation is bad for Eve?

The 13% per year (1% a month), that you're calling high, is what Dr EyjoG calls "mild" (page7 of the dec CSM minutes you linked to above).

But why do you think inflation is bad? What is the consequence of inflation for Eve, in your opinion?

Quote:
Where are the links to these sources by the way?
Already posted: the data provided by Diagoras; the presentations made by Dr.EyjoG.[/quote]

But we've just spent the bulk of this thread dealing with Diagoras' data. As for Dr EyjoG's presentations, I've seen all the fanfest presentations and I've read all the QENs. There's nothing in there that I can think of that advances your argument, so post a few that you think support your position.
Serene Repose
#117 - 2012-03-11 20:58:57 UTC
FACT: As long as market bots run on EVE the market is broken.

We must accommodate the idiocracy.

Serene Repose
#118 - 2012-03-11 20:59:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Serene Repose
Forgive the double post. I got the We Was Ganked screen which doesn't provide a whole helluva lot of information but does demonstrate the 20th Century Cool for which CCP is famous.

We must accommodate the idiocracy.

Adunh Slavy
#119 - 2012-03-11 21:17:47 UTC
Hartmann Pitts wrote:

The 13% per year (1% a month), that you're calling high, is what Dr EyjoG calls "mild" (page7 of the dec CSM minutes you linked to above).



Can't trust central bankers (although Doc E isn't exactly a central banker in the normal sense) and their adjectives. We can be sure he isn't going to use the words "alarming", "excessive" or "high" as it would send panics through markets.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#120 - 2012-03-11 21:17:47 UTC
Hartmann Pitts wrote:
But why do you think inflation is bad? What is the consequence of inflation for Eve, in your opinion?
Because most income is not scalable to match leading to some EVE version of the shoe event horizon, and because there are still fixed costs and prices that provide baseline values for just about everything (and upon which most faucets and sinks are based). Blow the influx too far out of balance and this equation breaks down, which will cause the break-down to accelerate further up until the point where they will simply have to start cutting content. That is not a good solution, nor is it good for the game that one (or even a few) activities completely obsolete all others and keep people away from playing the game they want to play. Don't mix cement in the sandbox and all that.

Quote:
But we've just spent the bulk of this thread dealing with Diagoras' data. As for Dr EyjoG's presentations, I've seen all the fanfest presentations and I've read all the QENs. There's nothing in there that I can think of that advances your argument, so post a few that you think support your position.
Most concisely in the spring CSM meeting minutes linked earlier:

“There was a discussion about the reasons for this, including the increased ISK making possibilities in nullsec (especially before the anomaly nerf). It was also noted that the population in nullsec dropped quite a bit when Incursion was released, then slowly recovered. This was likely because people left nullsec to go try incursions.

Dr. Eyjo said that about 30 trillion ISK per month enters the game through bounties. This is about 80% of all the ISK entering the game. The good doctor has been, and still is, concerned about the imbalance between ISK entering and being removed from the game, and has been asking the game designers to either reduce the flow in or add increased ISK sinks” (p39).