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Jumpfreighters underpriced

Author
Carlos Aranda
Doomheim
#1 - 2012-03-04 10:31:48 UTC

Can a big market trader do me the favor plz, buy them all, set them on market again for 7 or better 8 bil?

JF are underpriced, if calced everything right: -1 ME BPC, t1/t2 with new price, t1 freighter at new price. And producers want to ahvce some ISK for waiting 4 weeks, too?
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#2 - 2012-03-04 13:51:29 UTC
It is looking a bit tight, but bear in mind that it takes about 21 days to build a -1PE jump freighter in an NPC slot so those on the market right now are using materials that were purchased 3 weeks ago at (likely) lower prices.

It's something I've seen with regular freighter production that each cycle sees me pouring billions of minerals in and locking in a build price that is in some instances *above* the current sell price in the hope that the mineral basket either stabilises or rises in the intervening manufacture period.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#3 - 2012-03-05 07:28:34 UTC
The last 6 months have brought volatility to almost every single type of goods used in Manufacture, its bin a very rough year causing a very large Updraft.

Its very logical to assume, what goes up must come down, What im trying to say, the risk, that resource prices May.or.maynot come down, is very visible and on the minds of every serious trader out there.

Very large ticket items like that are not as easy to manipulate as time, is the reason manipulation works, you go in, hit hard, hit fast and hope you atleast break even over the next 3 days.

If some one does manipulate the market, then they would have to alter the market in a way where a 50% profit margin or better is achieved, with very big ticket items, people simply wont buy, they will go and make the items themselves, especially items directly pertaining to the Manufacturing profession, people just feel a massive urge to make their own stuff, even if they have to wait 3 months.

I think it will work, if a seasoned veteran does the job, I also think the reason it hasn't bin done already is because Freighters are boring, they just don't attract the same attention as Carriers or battleships.
Carlos Aranda
Doomheim
#4 - 2012-03-05 14:57:05 UTC

So you think, t1 = tritanium, pyerite, mexallon will go down again? T2 will go down again? Why? The market is atm barely able to satisfy the demand of minerals for t1 ships and why should go t2 down, while fuel prices went up?

We saw a spike already in JF from 4 to 6 bil. My opinion is, it is now time for the next spike. I just cant do it. What you said about 4 weeks, I wrote that myself and it is the opposite of what oyu said. It gives you 4 weeks time - unless somebody has just now a mass production of JF running, but I doubt that. he has to built hte componets first then 21 days, that is at least overall 4 weeks. I doubt also he would be so mad and start pricing them then again on 6 bil to make somebody, who sells at a high price, a big loss.

What I say, if you want a cheap JF, buy it now. If you a big-time venturer maybe buy all and set them in market for 7 or 8 bil. And yes, I have a JF, which I do not want to sell for less than production cost. That is why I write this. That should be clear.


Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#5 - 2012-03-05 16:16:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Tekota
Carlos Aranda wrote:

So you think, t1 = tritanium, pyerite, mexallon will go down again? T2 will go down again? Why? The market is atm barely able to satisfy the demand of minerals for t1 ships and why should go t2 down, while fuel prices went up?


Sure they may and at *some* point they undoubtedly will, they've been rising for 3 months solid and whilst I don't see any particular hint of notable drops on the horizon betting on an ever rising market would be lunacy.

Carlos Aranda wrote:

We saw a spike already in JF from 4 to 6 bil. My opinion is, it is now time for the next spike. I just cant do it. What you said about 4 weeks, I wrote that myself and it is the opposite of what oyu said. It gives you 4 weeks time - unless somebody has just now a mass production of JF running, but I doubt that. he has to built hte componets first then 21 days, that is at least overall 4 weeks. I doubt also he would be so mad and start pricing them then again on 6 bil to make somebody, who sells at a high price, a big loss.


The spikeyness has already been explained as a lag in the manufacture time, drakes and ravens will track T1 mineral basket quite quickly, big boats less so.

And doubting anyone runs mass production of JF is, if I may say, a tad naive. Valerie Crossroads (and I really must stop giving links to the damn competition) has four JFs popping out in a little over two weeks time and at least four regular freighters every week. Even little me is delivering a freighter every four days.

And yes, people who run mass production will look at the input price and factor in that lag effect and take an educated guess/gamble on every other producer being in the same boat and that input price not tanking in the meantime. T1 freighter production naturally requires a close eye and good feel for the mineral basket, trit in particular. JF freighter production requires a good understanding of fulleride, fernite and sylramic pricing in addition to minerals.

Carlos Aranda wrote:

What I say, if you want a cheap JF, buy it now. If you a big-time venturer maybe buy all and set them in market for 7 or 8 bil. And yes, I have a JF, which I do not want to sell for less than production cost. That is why I write this. That should be clear.


To be honest, if you are producing them then you really don't want traders getting heavily involved - a trader cares only for their margin, not for the input cost (unless reprocessing becomes viable). So if someone bought out all the JFs up to 8b, then they'll be trying to shift their stock just at the time yours come out - the trader now has a massive stock, big wallets, and only a need to make 5% or so on each 6b JF. Competing with that when tied to input pricing can be fun.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#6 - 2012-03-05 17:34:40 UTC
Carlos Aranda wrote:

So you think, t1 = tritanium, pyerite, mexallon will go down again? T2 will go down again? Why? The market is atm barely able to satisfy the demand of minerals for t1 ships and why should go t2 down, while fuel prices went up?

We saw a spike already in JF from 4 to 6 bil. My opinion is, it is now time for the next spike. I just cant do it. What you said about 4 weeks, I wrote that myself and it is the opposite of what oyu said. It gives you 4 weeks time - unless somebody has just now a mass production of JF running, but I doubt that. he has to built hte componets first then 21 days, that is at least overall 4 weeks. I doubt also he would be so mad and start pricing them then again on 6 bil to make somebody, who sells at a high price, a big loss.

What I say, if you want a cheap JF, buy it now. If you a big-time venturer maybe buy all and set them in market for 7 or 8 bil. And yes, I have a JF, which I do not want to sell for less than production cost. That is why I write this. That should be clear.




I think the chances of mineral prices going up or staying at their current level are far greater then downdraft in the short term, but the possibility exists, due to the very simple fact that they have gone up considerably over the past 6 months.

Volatility in nulsec, Via large alliances falling in recent times, the latest war against miners, and the increased activity against boting, has had this effect on mineral prices.
The demand for capital pilots on the Character Baazar is still very high, the top 50 alliances on the killboards continue to lose hundreds of capital ships every month.

Perhaps I did not word my original post correctly, but I did get my point across, the enticing prices are drawing more and more players to the mining profession.
Carlos Aranda
Doomheim
#7 - 2012-03-05 19:11:12 UTC

I just want to make one thing clear: I did not come here to argue forever.

My point was: JF will go up in price, because atm. it would be better to just hold the materials and sell them later, instead of producing JF. Cant be right? Of course it would be nice, if it goes a little faster, but if I have to, and it seems so - I can wait.

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#8 - 2012-03-06 06:34:47 UTC
Carlos Aranda wrote:

I just want to make one thing clear: I did not come here to argue forever.

My point was: JF will go up in price, because atm. it would be better to just hold the materials and sell them later, instead of producing JF. Cant be right? Of course it would be nice, if it goes a little faster, but if I have to, and it seems so - I can wait.



Indeed carlos, , this topic is well bumped and noticed.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#9 - 2012-03-06 09:00:55 UTC
Carlos Aranda wrote:
JF will go up in price, because atm. it would be better to just hold the materials and sell them later, instead of producing JF. Cant be right? Of course it would be nice, if it goes a little faster, but if I have to, and it seems so - I can wait.

I wouldn't be so sure that they'll go up in price that much or that quickly.

Terrible tools like http://www.eve-market-guide.com/manufacturing.php have made masses of lemmings head blindly into JF production, sucking up materials and increasing the build costs. When that massive glut of JFs hits the market, in the hands of foolish market lemmings, what do you expect will happen to the price?
Ave Volta
Perkone
Caldari State
#10 - 2012-03-06 18:51:24 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
The last 6 months have brought volatility to almost every single type of goods used in Manufacture, its bin a very rough year causing a very large Updraft.


Actually my experience has been quite opposite of 'rough'. I've seen amazing manufacturing profits in the last 6 month. Smile

Lots of mins and ship hulls in lowsec/0.0 regions have been slow to follow the upwards prices in Jita, so they have been a good place to shop over that period.

Black Frog Logistics - Lowsec/Nullsec Logistics Services. Join ingame channel 'Black Frog' for more info.

Tarsas Phage
Freight Club
#11 - 2012-03-06 19:48:29 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Carlos Aranda wrote:
JF will go up in price, because atm. it would be better to just hold the materials and sell them later, instead of producing JF. Cant be right? Of course it would be nice, if it goes a little faster, but if I have to, and it seems so - I can wait.

I wouldn't be so sure that they'll go up in price that much or that quickly.

Terrible tools like http://www.eve-market-guide.com/manufacturing.php have made masses of lemmings head blindly into JF production, sucking up materials and increasing the build costs. When that massive glut of JFs hits the market, in the hands of foolish market lemmings, what do you expect will happen to the price?


More JFs flying around? This is relevant to my interests.

/T
Avraham Avinu
Children of Noah
#12 - 2012-03-08 01:37:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Avraham Avinu
The T1 freighter required to build the T2 JF has gone up significantly. The one month manufacturing lag means that the JF has an increased profit margin, but the market will see a significant drop once the market starts to top, as sellers start to cover their costs by panic dumping.
Tanya Powers
Doomheim
#13 - 2012-03-08 12:01:37 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
The last 6 months have brought volatility to almost every single type of goods used in Manufacture, its bin a very rough year causing a very large Updraft.

Its very logical to assume, what goes up must come down, What im trying to say, the risk, that resource prices May.or.maynot come down, is very visible and on the minds of every serious trader out there.

Very large ticket items like that are not as easy to manipulate as time, is the reason manipulation works, you go in, hit hard, hit fast and hope you atleast break even over the next 3 days.

If some one does manipulate the market, then they would have to alter the market in a way where a 50% profit margin or better is achieved, with very big ticket items, people simply wont buy, they will go and make the items themselves, especially items directly pertaining to the Manufacturing profession, people just feel a massive urge to make their own stuff, even if they have to wait 3 months.

I think it will work, if a seasoned veteran does the job, I also think the reason it hasn't bin done already is because Freighters are boring, they just don't attract the same attention as Carriers or battleships.



Pass the billion for a ship you should think a little bit and maybe ask yourself what use will you have with that thing.

If you're not a corp/alliance director using the corp JF what use could you probably have of a 6.5B jump freighter when you have dozens of tools to do the same stuff for cheaper.
Even better, you leave all your stuff where you were and you take those 6.5B and start from the scratch somewhere else?

Thing is that Jump freighters have little to no interest for major part of players. They don't offer anything interesting for the price tag and the risk involved other than jump directly from high to low/null, this asset is interesting for corps/alliances but imho not for the single guy that would be much better with a second carrier account paid by plex
DrDimeBar
House of Negotiable Affection
#14 - 2012-03-08 19:36:08 UTC
simple answers, people are buggering about with the prices of technetium (38% overpriced, might be maintained due to the tinfoilhat cartels) and fullerides (42% overpriced)

JF manufacturers wont be manufacturing as in a months time once prices drop they will lose 1-2 bil

op clearly wants to push jf prices up so idots build and buy the overpriced fullerides.

Alt detected :)
Salarc
SalCorp
#15 - 2012-03-08 20:03:36 UTC
Carlos Aranda wrote:

Can a big market trader do me the favor plz, buy them all, set them on market again for 7 or better 8 bil?

JF are underpriced, if calced everything right: -1 ME BPC, t1/t2 with new price, t1 freighter at new price. And producers want to ahvce some ISK for waiting 4 weeks, too?


I don't know what wack math your using, but they produce at around 300-500m profit atm Roll
Samroski
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#16 - 2012-03-09 06:08:58 UTC
Don't you just love MD and the efforts to manipulate and counter-manipulate!!

Think I'll go and buy a couple of JFs now :)

Any colour you like.

Nikita Keriget
Doomheim
#17 - 2012-03-09 21:07:21 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Carlos Aranda wrote:
JF will go up in price, because atm. it would be better to just hold the materials and sell them later, instead of producing JF. Cant be right? Of course it would be nice, if it goes a little faster, but if I have to, and it seems so - I can wait.

I wouldn't be so sure that they'll go up in price that much or that quickly.

Terrible tools like http://www.eve-market-guide.com/manufacturing.php have made masses of lemmings head blindly into JF production, sucking up materials and increasing the build costs. When that massive glut of JFs hits the market, in the hands of foolish market lemmings, what do you expect will happen to the price?


I'm new to manufacturing, so I was wondering if you could help explain some of the flaws with the eve-market-guide tool?

Thanks!
Mongo Travler
Recreational Hazards
#18 - 2012-03-09 21:36:48 UTC
From what I can tell that website cannot take into account the negative ME rating of Tech 2 BPC's. So all the projected profit per hour figures on Tech 2 items will be higher than they really are.
Shayla Sh'inlux
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#19 - 2012-03-09 23:35:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Shayla Sh'inlux
Nah, the negative ME works.

The problem is mostly its way of pricing components, especially advanced moon materials and decryptors. For example, a ship that has been spiking like crazy lately is the Mackinaw. According to that site, right this moment, an ME -3 print manufactures for 92 million, while it actually manufactures for 98 million at best. That's 6 million less profit.

Furthermore, it assumes free BPC's (which is nonsense) and if you check the outsourced checkbox and enter prices, it will go wacky with decryptors because it assumes 1-run BPCs from your source when you actually should use max runs and a decryptor or it assumes max-runs and then uses a +run decryptor on a ship believing it ends up being more isk/hour because the bottleneck in ship manufacturing is the invention time. That may well be true if you are actually running 30-40 slots of invention and only 10 for production, but in practice, it's just a good way of oversaturating the market while killing your profits per unit.

Also, it doesn't account for market and factory fees, which add up when moving multiple billions of goods.

And finally. stuff always sells for less than the actual quoted price on the site. I understand having up-to-date accurate prices is insanely hard without looking at the market yourself, but they are way. way off on a lot of items. So, for example, according to the tool, the pph for Macks is at the moment 640k, while in reality, it's closer to half that amount.

It's a decent tool to quickly look up which items or ships may or may not be worth looking into, but following it blindly won't make you much money.
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#20 - 2012-03-10 09:07:43 UTC
Shayla Sh'inlux wrote:

It's a decent tool to quickly look up which items or ships may or may not be worth looking into, but following it blindly won't make you much money.


Quoted for emphasis.

Use it to get a feel for a new market, but always run your own sheets / numbers. There's a bunch of things that can make EMG's numbers nuttier then a squirrel.

- Target market, different market hubs have different values of items at different times. Jita might be selling a doodad for 700k, Rens at 900k, Dodixie at 800k and Amarr at 1.2M. If you're serious about production, you know your target markets and have sheets that can tell you which market is best at the moment.

- Bad or overly optimistic assumptions about fees / tax costs. When doing planning, you should always assume losing 2% in sales tax + broker fees. Even if you have high standings, broker relations V and accounting V. Copy/invent/manuf slot fees are best estimated in a pessimistic fashion, assuming that you're only keeping 40 slots busy on a large tower each month. Being pessimistic about fees gives you room for error so you won't lose ISK on a batch.

Even if I have 52% success on my invention phase using meta items + skills, I still calculate it as 45% success rate on my sheets. I still count on 2% losses to sales/broker fees. I set my slot fees to be calculated at 15k/hr, even if it only costs me 10-12k/hr. It gives me that extra 3-5% margin for safety for times when I have to compete in a market with thinner margins and I'm just trying to unload a particular batch. Gives me time to get out of a market as margins get squeezed, while still making at least some profit.

The pessimism also keeps me from getting into a market where the margins are already being squeezed.
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