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PLEX after change:

Author
Teckos Pech
Patriotic Tendencies
Goonswarm Federation
#101 - 2017-05-26 17:09:49 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:


1) You avoided my impetus.
2) CCP is the supplier of PLEX for cash, but not its holder once issued.
3) Players hold PLEX, and they hold them in huge amounts, far exceeding monthly introduction of PLEX.
4) PLEX is a means to pay for sub/secondary services.
5) Players that leave EVE likely dont have PLEX, or they would use them to train their characters while away.

Result:
- PLEX magnates control the supply of PLEX ingame, not CCP.
-CCPs introduction of PLEX is dependent on player purchase.
-BUT, PLEX magnates control that, because they control the INGAME market for isk equity.

If someone sits on a 1-10k PLEX stack, this has long lasting repercussions on the market by omission, as they have been purchased, introduced, but not expended.

As was pointed out by two other posters, CCP only registers PLEX as income once they are expended.
Yet there are entities sitting on thousands upon thousands of unexpended PLEXs, basically screwing CCP out of their money.


Then how come the price drops when CCP has a PLEX sale?


A better question would be how come the prices rise back even above the pre-sale price afterwards.


Because the sale has ended and the price OOG went back up and as a result the supply curve has shifted up, and quantity supplied in game goes down leading to a price increase.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Patriotic Tendencies
Goonswarm Federation
#102 - 2017-05-26 17:29:18 UTC
And to be clear, I do not subscribe to any sort of theory that there is some sort of plan/plot to raise PLEX prices by players. I don't doubt many players holding PLEX want the price to rise. And some may have bought PLEX awhile ago and have made alot of ISK (at least "on paper") doing so.

My view is that the increased use of PLEX for various things in game has been a contributing factor to the rise in PLEX. Also the recent increase in the price of PLEX for 30 days of game time. Using the 110 pack one needs to buy just over 4.5 of those which works out to around $22.65-ish (obviously you can't just buy 4.5, you'll need to buy 5 and have 50 PLEX left over). One can get that number lower by mixing and matching PLEX bundles for say, but it seems the price for 30 days of game time right now is around $21-$22 which is an increase over the old $19.99. Thus the supply curve moves up, and we slide back along the demand curve and we get less PLEX in game on the market and thus a higher price. As more things can be bought with PLEX, the more the price will continue to rise. As player wealth continues to rise, that will move the price higher. Players leaving the game will probably have a negative impact.

There are many factors here that can explain the rise in price without resorting to a secret cabal of players doing things to the PLEX market. Besides, even if they are...how do they cash out without crashing the market?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#103 - 2017-05-26 18:11:09 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
And to be clear, I do not subscribe to any sort of theory that there is some sort of plan/plot to raise PLEX prices by players.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

But ask yourself this. Why would PLEX manipulation by the EVE one percenters not happen when these same people manipulate every other commodity in the game? Or do you also not subscribe to the the theory that market manipulation is as common as PVP within a certain demographic of the player base?

I might even go so far as to say market manipulation is PVP in its purist form. Sitting on a gate shooting at haulers gets you a killmail. Sitting in Jita 4/4 lording over the Trit trade makes you king of The Forge.

Mr Epeen Cool
DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#104 - 2017-05-26 20:16:40 UTC
I presently have 5 acocunts, 4 i pay with money, one is paied with plex for 3 months. ATM i'm not playing as much as i should, but it would not take me too long to net the isk for a plex if i focus. I mean i cna make 45m or so per site in a c3 and clear them in about 10-15min. thats not including if i sell gas, ore, and the salvage. and any supplemental pi i setup. I mena getting isk for plex is simple stupid to do. Either you are too lazy to try, or you need ot rethink your play style. And if its too hard to grind, then buy game time with real money, which in california is 1 hour of work for 1 month.

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.

DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#105 - 2017-05-26 21:21:25 UTC
in addition, the smaller plex makes it even easier to pay with plex. if for example you have enough isk for 400 plex, you could just on ccp's site. fork out a mere $5 and get the rest you need. giving you more options to pay less to play eve

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.

Xavier Swades
Black Dragon PHP
Darwinism.
#106 - 2017-05-27 00:31:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Xavier Swades
Just joined eve, I love it, happy to pay the monthly fee to subscribe.

But let's face it - this is a long term hobby. And rising plex prices (which are price controlled recently, based on
a "share split" of old plex looks suspiciously like a cash grab on a lowering player trend) A little enlightenment as to where the devs are thinking of going would go a long way right now.

Simply my honest opinion, from a super nerd that loves spaceships and cats.


TLDR: good time for real direction dev blog. And maybe a dev stream on twitch, see paradox for how to engage an audience!
Teckos Pech
Patriotic Tendencies
Goonswarm Federation
#107 - 2017-05-27 03:05:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Mr Epeen wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
And to be clear, I do not subscribe to any sort of theory that there is some sort of plan/plot to raise PLEX prices by players.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

But ask yourself this. Why would PLEX manipulation by the EVE one percenters not happen when these same people manipulate every other commodity in the game? Or do you also not subscribe to the the theory that market manipulation is as common as PVP within a certain demographic of the player base?

I might even go so far as to say market manipulation is PVP in its purist form. Sitting on a gate shooting at haulers gets you a killmail. Sitting in Jita 4/4 lording over the Trit trade makes you king of The Forge.

Mr Epeen Cool


Explain how you'd unwind that position without crashing the market?

Edit:

To be clear manipulation usually entails misleading people in the market. That is rather hard for a player to do. The easiest way would be to impersonate a Dev somehow, but we all know the risks inherent in that path. Really the only method I can see would be to try and corner the market. Such attempts have a rather dubious history...for those trying to corner the market.

In fact, suppose you are sitting on a veritable mountain of ISK, something crazy like 10 trillion ISK. You think, "I know I'll corner the market and anyone wanting to buy PLEX must come to me!"

So you go out and start buying up ISK like a mad man. The price starts to rise....now what is to stop people from buying PLEX and selling it for ISK at the higher prices you just created? Answer: nothing.

See, PLEX is not like say...gold or silver, which have been targets of attempts to corner. Gold and silver are not that easily produced. You first have to find a site then mine it. But PLEX....CCP can make as many PLEX as people want to buy. Strictly speaking the marginal cost is probably near zero. If somebody wanted 1,000,000 PLEX the could be made in just a few seconds. The point is, the IG price is probably a factor for OOG demand. A dramatically higher IG price will mean more people buying PLEX OOG and selling them.

So not only would you have to worry about selling all those PLEX you bought and not crashing the price, but you'll have to fight other OOG buyers who sell IG for ISK every step of the way.

And if CCP were to announce a sale as you are trying to unwind. That would not be unlike a sudden discovery of gold. That lowers the price of gold.

Sorry, just not seeing it here. It is very much like a martingale betting system. It works if you have infinite wealth...since nobody has infinite wealth it does not work.

Then there is the principle of parsimony, there are plenty of explanations for why PLEX prices have risen over time without having to resort and unverifiable claim.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#108 - 2017-05-27 03:28:07 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Mr Epeen wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
And to be clear, I do not subscribe to any sort of theory that there is some sort of plan/plot to raise PLEX prices by players.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

But ask yourself this. Why would PLEX manipulation by the EVE one percenters not happen when these same people manipulate every other commodity in the game? Or do you also not subscribe to the the theory that market manipulation is as common as PVP within a certain demographic of the player base?

I might even go so far as to say market manipulation is PVP in its purist form. Sitting on a gate shooting at haulers gets you a killmail. Sitting in Jita 4/4 lording over the Trit trade makes you king of The Forge.

Mr Epeen Cool


Explain how you'd unwind that position without crashing the market?
Ask your overlords to tell you about cornering the market on Technetium back when they were relevant. They can tell you about it in excruciating detail.

Mr Epeen Cool
Teckos Pech
Patriotic Tendencies
Goonswarm Federation
#109 - 2017-05-27 03:50:00 UTC
Mr Epeen wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Mr Epeen wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
And to be clear, I do not subscribe to any sort of theory that there is some sort of plan/plot to raise PLEX prices by players.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

But ask yourself this. Why would PLEX manipulation by the EVE one percenters not happen when these same people manipulate every other commodity in the game? Or do you also not subscribe to the the theory that market manipulation is as common as PVP within a certain demographic of the player base?

I might even go so far as to say market manipulation is PVP in its purist form. Sitting on a gate shooting at haulers gets you a killmail. Sitting in Jita 4/4 lording over the Trit trade makes you king of The Forge.

Mr Epeen Cool


Explain how you'd unwind that position without crashing the market?
Ask your overlords to tell you about cornering the market on Technetium back when they were relevant. They can tell you about it in excruciating detail.

Mr Epeen Cool


That is a cartel and it has the same problem. You drive up the price by limiting supply. But that means you have a pile of technetium sitting there at the high price you don't dare sell lest the price crashes. Now at least with technetium they controlled production. And given that the demand for technetium is probably somewhat inelastic--i.e. you don't have much option if you are going to build T2 items that need technetium--they might end up with higher profits.

But PLEX is not like that. First the demand for PLEX is probably far more elastic. Price goes up, alot of players can switch back over to a paid sub. A paid sub for an entire year is close to half the PLEX price. Further, if the IG price goes up, players who need PLEX for things like character transfers can buy them OOG completely side stepping any sort of attempt to corner the PLEX market. Finally, even if you do buy up all the PLEX in game and set the price at 10 billion ISK, there is nothing you can do to stop somebody from buying PLEX OOG and putting them on the market for.....9.99 billion. To stop them you'd have to buy those PLEX for 9.99 billion each.

Other forms of manipulation do exist but are much more short term like churning, pump and dump, etc. These would not produce the long upward trend we have seen in PLEX prices.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online