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Minerals and the eventual drone change?

Author
Bunnehrawr Rawr
Doomheim
#1 - 2012-01-20 22:09:48 UTC
Seeing as this is seeming very much like its going to happen.. at some point, going off the mention in the csm notes.

When the drones get swapped to bounties, how much of an affect do you guys think this is going to have on the higher end minerals Ie, nocx,iso,mega .etc etc

And how fast do you predict the prices will increase if at all *large stockpiles will be trolling this process im sure*


no ones really mentioned it yet and its going to happen within this year i'm fairly sure.

discussface?

I've already bought a nice stock just as well.. i had lots of iskies and its almost guarenteed to cause an increase in something right :D
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#2 - 2012-01-20 22:21:06 UTC


I don't think Isogen will be affected much, and you forgot to mention Zydrine. I recommend investing in ZYDIF, which is very likely to go up in the future.




corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#3 - 2012-01-20 23:55:16 UTC
or, you know, buy your own minerals. Roll

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#4 - 2012-01-21 03:38:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Tekota
I've yet to really see, from CCP, or the CSM for that matter, thoughts on how this change - which admittedly does look to have gone from throw away vagueness to more concrete planning - will affect isk faucet/sink ratios.

We've gone from the last, long lamented, QEN noting concerns of a growing imbalance, to tacit official acknowledgement that incursions may be pumping a bit too much isk in, to these CSM minutes noting a "mild inflationary period of around 1 percent per month".

Slight oddities aside, I'm getting the impression of a growing concern of isk faucets and have to wonder what swapping an apparently significant mineral faucet to an isk faucet will do to that balance.


edit: percent symbols and URL linkies in the same post really seem to throw the forum bbcode in a hissy fit
Adunh Slavy
#5 - 2012-01-23 02:10:23 UTC
Until there is a set date for the change, and we know to what degree, it is hard to come to any conclusions. We can surely say minerals shold go up in price, reduced supply, more ISK ... only one way for things to move in that regard. We do not know what other changes may come in the same future patch that could impact the environment.

But, if you have the capital and the patience, now is the time, long before the speculation begins. Buy and Hold.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Jorn Isu
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#6 - 2012-01-23 03:59:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Jorn Isu
Block Ukx wrote:


I don't think Isogen will be affected much, and you forgot to mention Zydrine. I recommend investing in ZYDIF, which is very likely to go up in the future.





Cute. I assume you're the one selling 146k shares at 1230 ISK a piece, almost double the price they're worth?
Adunh Slavy wrote:


But, if you have the capital and the patience, now is the time, long before the speculation begins. Buy and Hold.

lol
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#7 - 2012-01-23 15:58:59 UTC
confirming i have bought 20b in zydrine.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#8 - 2012-01-23 17:52:22 UTC
Jorn Isu wrote:
Cute. I assume you're the one selling 146k shares at 1230 ISK a piece, almost double the price they're worth?



No, I’m not the one selling at 1,230 ISK and I don’t think you understand how Indices and the Exchange work. Anyone can place a sell order at the price of their choice.


The intrinsic price of an Index (ZYDIF for example) is determined by regional trades conducted by the Mineral Reserve. On good weeks, I update prices daily during the week, but sometimes several days pass before a new price update. I avoid updating prices during the weekend.

During a price update, a predetermined number of shares become available for both buy-backs and sales. In the case of ZYDIF, this number is 300,000 shares. Anyone may choose to buy/sell their stock at the intrinsic price. However, the Exchange does not impede investors from placing their own buy/sell orders. Depending on market conditions, the Exchange may clear more than 300,000 shares in buy/sell orders. Therefore, it is a good idea to place your own buy/sell orders.

One advantage of trading an Index in the Exchange is that you can set your own margins while earning share dividends. For instance, let’s imagine you bought shares at 730 ISK. You can place a 1,250 ISK sell order for the shares you bought. The day the intrinsic price reaches 1,250 ISK, your order will clear.

The Indices are meant for people that want a form of mineral market exposure and don’t want to deal with the actual market; not everyone is interested in trading. Basically, I’m doing the trading for you at the price you are trading in the Exchange. In addition, you earn share dividends while I trade for you.



Claire Voyant
#9 - 2012-01-23 20:10:26 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
I don’t think you understand how Indices and the Exchange work.

Every time you explain it I know less and less.
Kagan Storm
Doomheim
#10 - 2012-01-23 21:57:36 UTC
I think you are not focusing on a main thing here....

If drones = bounties ===>>> Russians get sovbuttsex

also

If drones = bounties and current miner:rater ration is suspect mining becoming popular

We are looking at new age if this happens but in my opinion trit will go up.... rest will just fall down...

My ego is the the size of my carriers jump range.

Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#11 - 2012-01-24 15:23:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Casius Omega
Kagan Storm wrote:
I think you are not focusing on a main thing here....

If drones = bounties ===>>> Russians get sovbuttsex

also

If drones = bounties and current miner:rater ration is suspect mining becoming popular

We are looking at new age if this happens but in my opinion trit will go up.... rest will just fall down...



Right.. if you take out one of the biggest mineral faucets ingame the mineral prices will probably fall... typical AAA stupidity.

You think there is all of a sudden going to be a huge influx of miners if the prices stay the same or drop?? No, things will stay the same.. stockpiles will dry up mineral prices will go up then there will be miners but they will in no way be able to keep up like drone regions did.

Remember before drone regions when zydrine was 2400isk p/u and mega was over 4000isk p/u .
My opinion its never been a better time to invest in zydrine.. and i say invest cause it might take 6 months to really take effect.
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#12 - 2012-01-24 15:38:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
The way I see it if drone POO was eliminated in favor of converting drones to bounties we would really see just how much of the mineral market is dependent on the drone minerals. Personally I believe that a very high amount of the minerals in game are coming from drones. But I can not prove or disprove that theory.

One thing I can say for sure is that it will increase the value in minerals and thus increase the income of miners. But this is a two edged sword. It would seem that increasing the income of miners would make it a more appealing profession except for one problem.

Since almost everything in EVE is made from minerals, the mineral price is the base of the entire economy. increasing the mineral price will cause inflation of the prices of everything made from those minerals. Miners will be making more isk but that isk will be worth less due to the inflation caused by the increase in the mineral price. As an end result the miners would be no better off as once the economy levels out the increase in income will be very close to or equal to the rate of inflation. For arguments sake lets say that number would be 10%. making the whole thing a wash as far as miners are concerned.

However it does not end here. Although the inflation would be a wash for miners it would affect other players incomes differently. Everyone in game would be affected by the 10% increase in market inflation but not everyone would get the 10% increase in income. For example mission runners would only see an increase in the value of loot drops that can be reprocessed back into minerals. the loyalty points and mission rewards would not change. This would effectively decrease the income of mission running. It would be the same for Ratting and most other income streams. The only ones that would receive a direct benefit would be the traders as a 3% profit on a higher base price would result in more isk for them.

This would not necessarily be a bad thing though. The main reason to increase the income of miners is to bring the career path more in line with other isk making activities. This would still be accomplished, but rather than increasing the miners income it would bring the other careers down a few notches narrowing the gap between miners, mission runners, and ratters. Since the market is equally affected by supply and demand reducing the effective income of the higher isk/hour activities through inflation will help to keep the market stable. The end result would be an increase in game balance.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#13 - 2012-01-24 16:27:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Casius Omega
From the CSM/CCP dev minutes meeting in iceland.

General Sovereignty Balance
CCP asked the CSM for feedback about the possibility of replacing Drone alloy drops with bounties. The CSM approved, noting that the drops from drone rats have flooded the market for high-end minerals and are largely responsible for the decline in mining as a nullsec profession. The CSM also noted that the ease of production in the drone regions due to alloy drops has had an influence on the rampant proliferation of supercapitals. CCP added that in addition to changing drone rats to having bounties instead of dropping alloys, CCP may need to adjust the truesec of the drone regions, as they have significantly better truesec than any other region. CCP stated that they did not want the sovholding 0.0 economy to be one where an alliance leader gets all of an alliance’s ISK, but rather one where everyone at the member level in an alliance gets more income as a consequence of holding space. The CSM pointedly noted that nullsec income had once been more like this - before CCP nerfed anomalies in March 2011


- With the proposed drone alloy change (mentioned in the nullsec session), mining will become profitable again, and coupled with other industrial changes will bring industrialists to nullsec. This change may also boost wormholes as well.
Trading Gives MeWood
State War Academy
Caldari State
#14 - 2012-01-24 17:16:29 UTC
Another thing to consider is that, if they switch to bounties, it is not entirely unlikely that they could also implement a module drop from the drones as well. In this case, if people were smart they could continue to obtain a significant amount of minerals in the form of loot that could be reprocessed.

Personally, when I rat in curse I collect loot and salvage as well. The combination of loot and salvage often (but not always) provides another 50-75% isk value per kill above and beyond the bounty. While it definitely does slow me down to collect this loot, having done the math, I end up ahead and it makes me self sufficient in terms of the T1 ships that I use.

Being that none of the changes have actually been fleshed out, I think it is premature to make any real judgements here.

Beyond that, I am too lazy to look it up but I believe a few years back the Quarterly Economic Newsletter or whatever had a graph that indicated where minerals came from, if you are so inclined go look it up.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#15 - 2012-01-24 17:49:16 UTC
Trading Gives MeWood wrote:
Another thing to consider is that, if they switch to bounties, it is not entirely unlikely that they could also implement a module drop from the drones as well. In this case, if people were smart they could continue to obtain a significant amount of minerals in the form of loot that could be reprocessed.

Personally, when I rat in curse I collect loot and salvage as well. The combination of loot and salvage often (but not always) provides another 50-75% isk value per kill above and beyond the bounty. While it definitely does slow me down to collect this loot, having done the math, I end up ahead and it makes me self sufficient in terms of the T1 ships that I use.

Being that none of the changes have actually been fleshed out, I think it is premature to make any real judgements here.

Beyond that, I am too lazy to look it up but I believe a few years back the Quarterly Economic Newsletter or whatever had a graph that indicated where minerals came from, if you are so inclined go look it up.


this is no different then any bounty space
Trading Gives MeWood
State War Academy
Caldari State
#16 - 2012-01-24 18:01:47 UTC
Casius Omega wrote:


this is no different then any bounty space


I understand that. The point I was trying to make is that if they implemented a drop system that it isn't like "all minerals collected from drone poop are going away". there would still be a mineral drop from killing the rats meaning that there would still be some mineral collection from that region.
Henry Haphorn
Killer Yankee
#17 - 2012-01-25 19:53:10 UTC
I predict that as soon as drone minerals are replaced by bounties, the following could most likely happen:

1. High-end mineral prices would go up. By how much depends on how much minerals is acquired from the drones compared to the standard asteroid mining profession.

2. Career miners will flock to take advantage of the minerals by mining for them for profit.

3. Career traders who have stockpiles of said minerals that have accumulated for a while will quickly sell their pile.

4. The combination of #2 and #3 will result in the mineral prices dropping once more. By how much depends on how fast the minerals are flowing in for the long term.

5. Market balances out on its own.

Adapt or Die

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#18 - 2012-01-25 21:59:41 UTC
How about low end minerals? Don't you get a /lot/ of those from the drone mats, in comparison to the high ends.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Lugia3
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#19 - 2012-01-26 11:30:58 UTC
I'm actually happy for this change. Gun mining is not very profitable if you don't have a noctis alt.

"CCP Dolan is full of shit." - CCP Bettik

Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#20 - 2012-01-26 14:57:45 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
How about low end minerals? Don't you get a /lot/ of those from the drone mats, in comparison to the high ends.



yea you get a lot of trit and pyrite from drone poo.. expect trit to go up another 1 isk/pu
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