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Free to play and plex prices

Author
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#1 - 2016-08-31 15:39:09 UTC  |  Edited by: IChooseYou
Do you think that plex prices will drop - at least initially until CCP actually gets a bigger player base, some of which may decide to subscribe?
Sequester Risalo
German Corps of Engineers 17
Federation of Respect Honor Passion Alliance.
#2 - 2016-08-31 15:51:54 UTC
No.
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#3 - 2016-08-31 15:56:27 UTC
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#4 - 2016-08-31 16:15:37 UTC
Why are you asking if they'll drop? They need a reason to and they tend to go down when we have more people playing.
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#5 - 2016-08-31 16:21:31 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Why are you asking if they'll drop? They need a reason to and they tend to go down when we have more people playing.


Exactly. More people will play and I am speculating that they will drop.

Plex right now seem to be driven by people that sell plex for isk and people that buy it with isk for game time. More people playing mean that more will sell it for isk. But now you don't need to buy it for 30 days of game time. Supply goes up as demand goes down.

Also, the new player base will not be the type of people that can buy plex for isk. This means to me that they would not increase demand.
Tempus Halley
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#6 - 2016-08-31 16:52:28 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Why are you asking if they'll drop? They need a reason to and they tend to go down when we have more people playing.


Even though there will be more people playing with the FreeToPlay change, they will be the type of player that does not want to pay cash for a subscription (otherwise they would not be F2P to begin with). I suspect overal, they would rather grind IKS for a plex instead of pay cash. Because of that, I assume that the IKS price of Plex will go up with this change and not down.
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#7 - 2016-08-31 17:04:31 UTC
Tempus Halley wrote:
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Why are you asking if they'll drop? They need a reason to and they tend to go down when we have more people playing.


Even though there will be more people playing with the FreeToPlay change, they will be the type of player that does not want to pay cash for a subscription (otherwise they would not be F2P to begin with). I suspect overal, they would rather grind IKS for a plex instead of pay cash. Because of that, I assume that the IKS price of Plex will go up with this change and not down.


That is only if you assume that the number of people that will fork out 20$ for extra isk (not necessarily game time) will note increase. At the end of the day, CCP makes money through plex and this is a business decision they are making. I think that they expect to sell more plex through it.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#8 - 2016-08-31 17:28:32 UTC
I hadn't seen the new dev blog, I thought you were talking about SP farming.
u3pog
Ministerstvo na otbranata
#9 - 2016-08-31 19:31:56 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
I hadn't seen the new dev blog, I thought you were talking about SP farming.


If they don't limit this new system what's stopping me from making 1000 accounts, waiting for them to fully train to 5 mil sp even if it takes longer, then switch to omega ang go sp farming? Right now you need to make an investment, but then...

The one thing that will stop this practice is when sp sold per month becomes cheaper than PLEX, unless I missed something in the dev blog, which is quite possible when reading on a phone in the subway...what a change!
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#10 - 2016-08-31 19:34:19 UTC
u3pog wrote:
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
I hadn't seen the new dev blog, I thought you were talking about SP farming.


If they don't limit this new system what's stopping me from making 1000 accounts, waiting for them to fully train to 5 mil sp even if it takes longer, then switch to omega ang go sp farming? Right now you need to make an investment, but then...

The one thing that will stop this practice is when sp sold per month becomes cheaper than PLEX, unless I missed something in the dev blog, which is quite possible when reading on a phone in the subway...what a change!


I agree. Although I wouldn't be surprised if they limited this in some way.
Cista2
EVE Museum
#11 - 2016-08-31 19:34:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
PLEX is dropping as we speak, but I dunno, maybe just a ripple.

My channel: "Signatures" -

u3pog
Ministerstvo na otbranata
#12 - 2016-08-31 19:39:44 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
PLEX is dropping as we speak, but I dunno, maybe just a ripple.


People panic Big smile
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#13 - 2016-08-31 19:43:42 UTC
I am hoping that they will drop below 700 (i.e. where they were when we had a much larger player base). Mr. Hyde, in his blog, gave an example of how we could go from the current 20k active players to 75-100k. That would be awesome.
Do Little
Bluenose Trading
#14 - 2016-08-31 21:48:26 UTC
CCP has thought of the farming aspect. You will not be able to extract the skills that can be trained on Alpha clones. The are also very limited for industrial use. It appears to be an extended trial - let people play long enough to get familiar with the game without the pressure of "do I like this well enough to pay a subscription fee"

They can get involved in PvE, FW and entry level PvP but anything that can be farmed by experienced players doesn't seem to be part of the package.

I agree these players are unlikely to buy PLEX unless they subscribe but I think they will be more likely to hang around long enough to learn the game and choose to subscribe.

Industrial Arrays will also be part of the November patch - people will raise cash to build them and that should put downward pressure on PLEX.
u3pog
Ministerstvo na otbranata
#15 - 2016-08-31 21:51:41 UTC
Do Little wrote:
CCP has thought of the farming aspect. You will not be able to extract the skills that can be trained on Alpha clones...


You don't need to extract these skills. You just need the base 5 mil SP, so you can move on from there with Omega status. Right now you have to PLEX to get them there.
Ria Nieyli
Amok.
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2016-08-31 22:01:44 UTC
Conceivably, Russians farming FW plexes to raise ISK as they already do is going to lose its PLEX overhead too. What a time to be subscribed.
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#17 - 2016-08-31 23:35:35 UTC
I do no expect PLEX to drop as a result if this. People using PLEX now would continue to do so. If anything, you would get more people in who then decide they want more access and become buyers.
Areen Sassel
Dirac Angestun Gesept
#18 - 2016-08-31 23:59:36 UTC
IChooseYou wrote:
I am hoping that they will drop below 700 (i.e. where they were when we had a much larger player base).


I don't think you are right to assume the size of the playerbase necessarily affects the PLEX price - up or down. If the playerbase doubled overnight by adding a duplicate of every existing player with the same real-world assets and propensity to pay for gametime, the PLEX price would have no initial reason to change at all - twice as many whales would be buying twice as many PLEX to sell for ISK and twice as many poors would be grinding the ISK to buy PLEX with. [1]

What matters is the propensities of the new players (or the players who leave if the playerbase shrinks). Initially, of course, they'll be neither buying nor selling PLEX, but what will they want to do if they stay? F2P does attract whales, that's why anyone does it, but of course EVE already has an option to get whales' money.

[1] Of course, in the medium term all kinds of things would change because EVE itself had not doubled in size - but that's not what I'm taking about.
IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
IChooseYou Holdings
#19 - 2016-09-01 04:24:08 UTC  |  Edited by: IChooseYou
Areen Sassel wrote:
IChooseYou wrote:
I am hoping that they will drop below 700 (i.e. where they were when we had a much larger player base).


I don't think you are right to assume the size of the playerbase necessarily affects the PLEX price - up or down. If the playerbase doubled overnight by adding a duplicate of every existing player with the same real-world assets and propensity to pay for gametime, the PLEX price would have no initial reason to change at all - twice as many whales would be buying twice as many PLEX to sell for ISK and twice as many poors would be grinding the ISK to buy PLEX with. [1]

What matters is the propensities of the new players (or the players who leave if the playerbase shrinks). Initially, of course, they'll be neither buying nor selling PLEX, but what will they want to do if they stay? F2P does attract whales, that's why anyone does it, but of course EVE already has an option to get whales' money.

[1] Of course, in the medium term all kinds of things would change because EVE itself had not doubled in size - but that's not what I'm taking about.


You ask the right question: What is going to be the propensities of the new players?

You say that these new players may subscribe. Yes, everyone wins! Do you think that they are actually going to grind for the over 1.1bil in order to get 30 days of game time? I don't think so.

Instead, assuming that players actually are able to play this game with the alpha clone (maybe do some industry or stuff), I think they are far more likely to spend $20 to have a bil in their wallet than the 30 days of game time.
Zad Murrard
Frozen Dawn Inc
Frozen Dawn Alliance
#20 - 2016-09-01 06:27:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Zad Murrard
I fully expect plex to go downwards because of this. Would guess a long term downward trend to plex prices.

I could speculate that if there is any sudden drop it is caused by people panicking about alphas. People have known that industrial etc. arrays are coming soon (TM) so they should not be surprised and start selling stuff only now.
Of course some might do it, but should be minority.
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