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Every year, there are less users playing, why??

First post
Author
Pandora Carrollon
Provi Rapid Response
#801 - 2016-08-02 15:52:04 UTC
Lex Gabinia wrote:
Pandora Carrollton wrote:

I can think of several things off the top of my head right now that would be fair and fun for the gankers as well as the AFK miners and haulers. There are solutions and we don't need these walls of text to deal with the relatively minor play issues being discussed.

I just do not get this last bit in bold. I think you post reasonably and positively so please do not think I am attacking you.

Why should we or the game designers do anything to encourage AFK ship activity that allows someone to profit?


It's the very reason your supposition points out. Your comment demonstrates you have a negative bias against AFK miners. There's no way I can convince you to change that. As long as you have a negative bias toward ANY play style, you are in jeopardy of hypocrisy.

Clearly CCP allows this play style. That should be good enough of an endorsement for every player of EVE.

Your play style may be attacking AFK miners. That's allowed as well. Good enough of an endorsement for me.

I'm saying, we need to advocate change that respects everyone's play style, even if we don't like it.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#802 - 2016-08-02 16:16:14 UTC
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:

The scientific method is an intentionally difficult, long, and rigorous process to remove discrepancies of this type and to ensure that the results are actually *proven* - not merely indicated by 1 potentially skewed set of uncontrolled observations.


Thankfully we have several.

Many times in the past we have looked at the number of freighters getting ganked and found the number to be tiny compared to the amount passing through choke points. Tippia one went through records to see the difference between the rate of mining barges getting ganked back in 2011 and 2015 and found it had dropped. In this thread I have also pointed out why barges are poorly balanced and done it using real numbers.

The problem with the anti gankers is not a single argument they have can be backed up with any evidence that supports it, they never provide any evidence even, its always people like me that has to go out and look into these things. We also always see the same responses too. "oh that doesn't count", "they don't represent the norm" but by far the most common response is them ignoring anything that doesn't back up their argument.

Geronimo McVain
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#803 - 2016-08-02 16:20:45 UTC
Caco De'mon wrote:
Geronimo McVain wrote:
Ganks of Miners, ratters and Mission players are a more serious problem for noobs.


Except that the number of 3+ month players (heck even way older) earning their PLEX in HS mining is huge. This issue isn't just about one group or another group but rather the over abundance of easy to get ISK in HS that attracts ALL types of players.

Go to CODE's kill lists and just thumb through some random miner kills in barges and you will quickly see that this isn't just a rookie issue. Ice fields are a great place to see vets mining away...usually AFK.

In general, a large segment of the playebase wants as much easy ISK as possible and HS for most fits that bill. CCP would have to fundamentally change the game if it both wanted to help new players more and drive out the "greedy" vets.

So what? Is ratting in Null Sov such a dangerous activity? Or missioning? Everyone NEEDs a source of easy income or else all PvP, which doesn't mostly create money, would come to a stop. Everyone who is complaining over these afk Miners should tell his method of isk generation and the involved risk. Even the risk of freighter gankers is very limited to the 20M ISK throw-away-ship.
Every method I know except exploration is an (almost) foolproof low risk method. You need to have the money in the first place to put it at risk for fun. I admit that my actual method of money generation is PI. Risk free, decent income for low time investment which leaves me free time and money to explore Eve.
Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#804 - 2016-08-02 16:22:26 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:

The scientific method is an intentionally difficult, long, and rigorous process to remove discrepancies of this type and to ensure that the results are actually *proven* - not merely indicated by 1 potentially skewed set of uncontrolled observations.


Thankfully we have several.

Many times in the past we have looked at the number of freighters getting ganked and found the number to be tiny compared to the amount passing through choke points. Tippia one went through records to see the difference between the rate of mining barges getting ganked back in 2011 and 2015 and found it had dropped. In this thread I have also pointed out why barges are poorly balanced and done it using real numbers.

The problem with the anti gankers is not a single argument they have can be backed up with any evidence that supports it, they never provide any evidence even, its always people like me that has to go out and look into these things. We also always see the same responses too. "oh that doesn't count", "they don't represent the norm" but by far the most common response is them ignoring anything that doesn't back up their argument.


You have statistics, you have evidence - you do not have a method of scientifically sound, *controlled and repeatable testing* - so you will never progress beyond step 3 of the scientific method. You will never have *PROOF* that would stand up to true scientific review. It would be silly to even try for it - it is a game.

Look as I say I agree with you on this point. I *don't* think it is significantly impacting the game.

I was just offended that shae called it "scientific method" and implied that it was scientifically proven. As I say - it is a pet peeve of mine.

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Issler Dainze
Tadakastu-Obata Corporation
The Honda Accord
#805 - 2016-08-02 16:38:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Issler Dainze
There are fewer of them but in each crop the players seem to slightly larger, plumper and juicier.....
Caco De'mon
The Conference Elite
Safety.
#806 - 2016-08-02 16:47:40 UTC
Quote:
Is ratting in Null Sov such a dangerous activity?

Way more than mining in HS.

Quote:
Everyone NEEDs a source of easy income

But there is some risk in all of them OR a significant investment OR pretty good skill/knowledge. There are degrees when it comes to "easy" ISK and I agree with you. But what is always being argued here is that HS should totally safe to mine and obviously that would kill EVE because everyone just AFK mine for their PLEX.

*"See now that I, even I, am he, and there is no god with me: I kill, and I make alive; I wound, and I heal: neither is there any that can deliver out of my hand."

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#807 - 2016-08-02 16:53:06 UTC
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:

You have statistics, you have evidence - you do not have a method of scientifically sound, *controlled and repeatable testing* - so you will never progress beyond step 3 of the scientific method. You will never have *PROOF* that would stand up to true scientific review. It would be silly to even try for it - it is a game.

Look as I say I agree with you on this point. I *don't* think it is significantly impacting the game.

I was just offended that shae called it "scientific method" and implied that it was scientifically proven. As I say - it is a pet peeve of mine.


I don't bother the call it scientific or not, to me its just data.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#808 - 2016-08-02 16:54:21 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Were they doing things like not using a scout. Autopiloting? No webber? No escort at all?

TBH I only saw a few groups... but 2 of them did not use scouts, and the third used a *very* expensively fit tengu to scout... He did manage to get his orca through with that one - but we still got 4 billion isk in loot from the tengu escort, so we were happy lol.

Idiocy is not limited to high-sec in EVE - it is universe-wide.


Absolutely. But I would argue we tend to see more complaints coming from HS people than LS/NS (AFK cloaking aside, and even then seems to me the complainers there are often renters).


As I pointed out earlier its all about mechanics which aid the gankers, CCP just needs to do a balance pass.

1. More consequences for ganking as laid out by me and others in previous locked threads, most notably lock out of NPC Stations in hisec.

2. Look at the loot scooping and adjust for consequences

3. implement the bumping mechanic FFS

4. Grade in the EHP wreck to 15,000 so the emrgent gameplay around ganking wrecks is not destroyed outright

That is the idiocy in plain view of many players.


I disagree, one can avoid ganking by being prudent...just like other aspects of the game. Be prudent and you'll, by and large, be fine. No need to waste Dev time on something that the players can fix themselves.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Brokk Witgenstein
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#809 - 2016-08-02 16:55:17 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
If ganking is such a big problem then why is it having such an insignificant impact on the largest freight organisation?

Finally! Baltec said something I can agree with: it's massively blown out of proportion and I don't think it's why players are leaving.

Highsec lawyering could go on for decades with more and more amendments, exceptions and bugfixes in each patch; and it'd still just feel like "highsec". Unlike in the real world, the additional regulations are intentionally kept simple and mostly just, leading to an on-overall better experience... but it's simply not even close to being a major factor in player retention.

In fact I think it is the danger, not the safety that keeps people hooked; and the safer EvE gets, the less exciting it becomes. Safety comes from things such as travelceptors, jumpfreighters, nullified cloaky T3s, pre-aligned bears, POSsed Orcas, unprobably boosters, acceleration grid regulations (no cyno, no warp-ins), instawarp T3 destroyers, ... and the harder it becomes to actually get a fight or at the very least a kill?- the more time we spend doing uneventful, boring stuff.

Like roaming 68 jumps before FINALLY running into a living soul that is not an interceptor. Like camping for hours knowing full well that anything worthwhile will either jumpfreighter through or take a jump bridge.

The better part of this thread was wasted -as usual- on highsec shennanigans but when will someone address the LACK OF TARGETS?

The latter has several culprits, one being nowadays better PCs allows everyone and their uncle (except ole' Brokkies rustbucket) to multibox with dual or triple screens. Meaning there are eyes everywhere- and whenever something *might* happen, nope: they be long gone. Add to this the aforementioned mechanics standing between you and catching your prey, and it becomes indeed hard to find that 'good fight'. It practically requires one of the fleet commanders to get a scan on the hostile fleet, and to go for it anyway knowing full well they're probably heading home in an egg.

Was it always like this? I don't know. All I know, is that we have to put in real and prolonged effort to get a couple of minutes of excitement, and that I've seen several good pilots slip into inactivity because of that.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#810 - 2016-08-02 16:59:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Dracvlad wrote:
baltec1 wrote:


What you just demanded is the near removal of ganking, thats not balance.


Rubbish, it makes it a bit harder that is all, it creates consequences, like other people in the game have mate.


Ganking is already "hard". Just because some people make it look easy does not mean it is.

Here is an OOG example. When my son first started competitive swimming I'd look at him and his team mates and marvel at how easy they made it look. It looked like they were just slipping through the water, I can't even describe it completely here. However, that was the result of thousands of hours of practice. Literally. Even at the age of 5 and 6 he was going to practice every day Monday through Friday and when he hit is teens often more than 7 times a week, plus dry land training.

People putting alot of effort into something often make whatever it is they are doing look easy. This talk of ganking is "easy" is, IMO rubbish.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#811 - 2016-08-02 17:03:52 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:


Hauling...

NB Actually worse than ganking in terms of punishment...


So they lose sec status when they complete a run? They lose their ship after every attempt to transport cargo? They get a kill right against them after every attempt at transporting cargo? They get no insurance when they die? They get attacked by the faction police? At the end of of their cargo run every stack and all their mods stand a 50% chance of being destroyed?

No, the real risk to hauling is infact only from the very very rare chance they get targeted by a ganker. So rare infact that over the span of over a million gate jumps they stand a less than 0.01% chance of getting killed by a ganker. Try again.


Don't forget the opportunity cost associated with ganking. Brokk pointed that out and it is indeed valid as it is the main objection of many who refuse to gank the bumping ship. You are taking an alt slot that you could be using to do something else, that is indeed a cost.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#812 - 2016-08-02 17:06:13 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:

Where did you get that number from, pull it out of Jenn's megaphone?


Red freight, the largest freight organisation in EVE.


Not representative of all haulers mate... If I said the same thing about ganking you would be crawling all over me for it.


No it isn't, but even if it is off by an order of magnitude it says ganking is a trivial issue. Even if it is off by 2 orders of magnitude a trivial issue.

And it is something that haulers themselves can fix by simply playing prudently.

So you still got literally not one scrap of empirical data other than all the whining on the forums by Bads™.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#813 - 2016-08-02 17:09:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
John Volan wrote:
Demica Diaz wrote:
Ganking has many small effects on EVE but that is nowhere near the reason why EVE has less players playing. Not even close.

Ganking is a very visible and very controversial thing when you're first starting the game as a newbie, just not to a vet. And it's those new players that it's having an effect on. I'm not saying it shouldn't... CCP went with the philosophy of HTFU over hand-holding but it comes at the expense of new player retention and it's disingenuous to say otherwise.


No, not really.

CCP looked at this too, there is a fanfest video about it on youtube (I can't find it while at work do to filters but you can find it if you do a google search or somebody may be kind and provide the link).

The gist of it was they looked at new players (less than 90 days old IIRC) and in terms of ganks (being killed illegally) it was about 1% of those sampled. Further, they found that those ganked stuck with the game longer than those who were not ganked. Those killed illegally also stuck with the game longer than those who were not killed at all.

Edit: Further, if it were such a big deal how come so many people are still so insistent on playing so damn imprudently?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#814 - 2016-08-02 17:11:08 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:

Where did you get that number from, pull it out of Jenn's megaphone?


Red freight, the largest freight organisation in EVE.


Not representative of all haulers mate... If I said the same thing about ganking you would be crawling all over me for it.


No it isn't, but even if it is off by an order of magnitude it says ganking is a trivial issue. Even if it is off by 2 orders of magnitude a trivial issue.

And it is something that haulers themselves can fix by simply playing prudently.

So you still got literally not one scrap of empirical data other than all the whining on the forums by Bads™.

I'm guessing that due to some issues I addressed earlier the actual number for Red Frog Freight specifically is at around 1% of their runs that get ganked. This is not based on hard data sadly - but it seems like a pretty reasonable estimate for them.


If you wanted more directly meaningful statistics for EVE in general you could park alts in all the choke points and count how many freighters go through, and how many get ganked - but one of the reasons there is so little actual hard data for EVE is that very few people are actually willing to put in any time to collect it - so all of our data comes from *guesses* and *estimates* based on statistics accumulated by external sites for other purposes.

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#815 - 2016-08-02 17:12:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Dracvlad wrote:
Demica Diaz wrote:
Ganking has many small effects on EVE but that is nowhere near the reason why EVE has less players playing. Not even close.


And can you back that up with figures, do you know miners during the gankfest of wet paper bag tanks who were ganked and stayed on, I had contacts from before that period and none of them play the game now, all dropped out during that period after getting ganked so easily.

Come on I am all ears....


FYI that is not data, those are anecdotes.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Doc Fury
Furious Enterprises
#816 - 2016-08-02 17:20:11 UTC
How about some CCP data?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A92Ge2S8M1Y;t=54s

There's a million angry citizens looking down their tubes..at me.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#817 - 2016-08-02 17:20:47 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:

Where did you get that number from, pull it out of Jenn's megaphone?


Red freight, the largest freight organisation in EVE.


Not representative of all haulers mate... If I said the same thing about ganking you would be crawling all over me for it.


Data collected over 1,883,479 gate jumps and 2,786,739 jumps from the previous year. Its representative of freighters, you won't find a larger collection of data.



Well, as much as I hate to do anything to support Dracvlad, Red Frog freight IS an organization that plays prudently. So it is not representative of ganking in general, it is representative of ganking IF you play prudently.

Now before Dracvlad says something stupid....

This shows that ganking is not a CCP problem, it is a player problem. Fly like Red Frog and you too can be ganked with a probability of 0.01% (or more accurately a probability of 0.0001). That is you'll get ganked once every 10,000 gate jumps.

Stop being stupid and you'll be fine.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#818 - 2016-08-02 17:24:57 UTC
Doc Fury wrote:

It is a pretty limited sample set - but sure, it is data P

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#819 - 2016-08-02 17:26:23 UTC
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:

Where did you get that number from, pull it out of Jenn's megaphone?


Red freight, the largest freight organisation in EVE.


Not representative of all haulers mate... If I said the same thing about ganking you would be crawling all over me for it.


No it isn't, but even if it is off by an order of magnitude it says ganking is a trivial issue. Even if it is off by 2 orders of magnitude a trivial issue.

And it is something that haulers themselves can fix by simply playing prudently.

So you still got literally not one scrap of empirical data other than all the whining on the forums by Bads™.

I'm guessing that due to some issues I addressed earlier the actual number for Red Frog Freight specifically is at around 1% of their runs that get ganked. This is not based on hard data sadly - but it seems like a pretty reasonable estimate for them.


If you wanted more directly meaningful statistics for EVE in general you could park alts in all the choke points and count how many freighters go through, and how many get ganked - but one of the reasons there is so little actual hard data for EVE is that very few people are actually willing to put in any time to collect it - so all of our data comes from *guesses* and *estimates* based on statistics accumulated by external sites for other purposes.


You could come up with a first order approximation to the RFF gank rate, IMO, by dividing by the average number of gate jumps an RFF freighter takes. So, lets say it is 25 jumps. And a RFF freighter gets ganked, on average, on its 10,000 jump. So dividing 10,000 by 25 means the are ganked every 400th contract. If they also get ganked when moving while empty, then we could divide that by 2 and get the 200th contract. This would put the gank rate at about 0.005 or 0.5%.

Not too far off your estimate.

Again, this shows how prudence can be a factor in ganking.

Dracvlad is literally arguing for imprudence. Literally. It's stupid.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#820 - 2016-08-02 17:29:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:
Doc Fury wrote:

It is a pretty limited sample set - but sure, it is data P


Limited? Is that the fanfest presentation on ganking? IIRC That was 80,000 accounts and somehow they excluded alt accounts.

That is a pretty large sample.

Where I work we have 5.2 million customers and we often work with samples of 50,000 and even those are, statistically speaking, pretty large samples--i.e. we could drop the number down and still have valid summary statistics.

Edit: The reason we grab 50,000 is so that we can do post hoc subsetting. What about customers of this "type" or in this "region" etc. The 50,000 ensures that we'll have enough people for these questions after we do analysis on the entire population. For just looking at the whole population we could probably get away with 2,000-3,000 customers.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online