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Every year, there are less users playing, why??

First post
Author
xxxTRUSTxxx
Galactic Rangers
#781 - 2016-08-02 10:57:48 UTC
some are forgetting their place in all of this, if you are a client (us) you take part, if you are the producer (CCP) you provide the area for the clients (us) to take part.

when you feel you want to take more a dev role and feel you have what it takes to be a part of the team that brings us EVE then hey, stick an application into CCP and i'm sure they'll interview you and then it's all up to you.

until then stfu and play.
John Volan
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#782 - 2016-08-02 11:14:27 UTC
Ralph King-Griffin wrote:
John Volan wrote:

Ganking is a very visible and very controversial thing when you're first starting the game as a newbie, just not to a vet. And it's those new players that it's having an effect on. I'm not saying it shouldn't... CCP went with the philosophy of HTFU over hand-holding but it comes at the expense of new player retention and it's disingenuous to say otherwise.

No it isnt, the pissing and moaning about it is though.
This mewling and crying about it is what they pick up on, hardly anything moar.

Is there a difference? Often one of the first things I see new players ask after 'where do I dock?' is 'Is it safe in high sec?'. Of course the answer is invariably 'no' with various flavors of 'undocking is consenting to pvp' and 'youre never safe, welcome to Eve' but more significantly the reason most often given for it is suicide ganking. That's how new players are exposed to it early and often, whenever they say 'can I autopilot into Jita with all my stuff?' or 'do I need shields on my retriever?' they will inevitably get a healthy dose of ganking nightmare scenarios to scare them onto the straight and narrow.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#783 - 2016-08-02 11:57:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
John Volan wrote:
Demica Diaz wrote:
Ganking has many small effects on EVE but that is nowhere near the reason why EVE has less players playing. Not even close.

Ganking is a very visible and very controversial thing when you're first starting the game as a newbie, just not to a vet.
While you're correct in that it's a very visible activity, the visibility isn't necessarily due to its frequency. We live in an age of social media, every organisation is pushing their agenda including those in virtual worlds, which increases visibility. The long and the short of it is that a decent chunk of the visibility is down to the people doing it being media savvy.

You're also right in that it's a somewhat controversial activity, especially if you've come from other MMOs where such activities are verboten; CCP could certainly do more to warn players that it is explicitly allowed here, along with a lot of the other things that get you banned elsewhere.

Quote:
And it's those new players that it's having an effect on. I'm not saying it shouldn't... CCP went with the philosophy of HTFU over hand-holding but it comes at the expense of new player retention and it's disingenuous to say otherwise.
This is where the assumptions starts, as such they are open to debate.

Using one of Chribba's wonderful graphs over at Eveoffline, roughly 50-60 new characters were created every hour over the last week, that's circa 8400 new characters in a week, using 50 an hour as a baseline; admittedly a goodly chunk of those will be alts so for arguments sake we'll cut that number by 2/3 giving us 2800 potential new players.

I'll also assume that the most likely ship for a newbie to be mining with is a Venture, because they get one from the tutorial, and that all Ventures are flown by newbies.

A total of 146 Ventures exploded in hisec in the period 24/07-31/07 (inclusive). 21 of those Ventures died to NPC's; CODE.'s performance was pitiful, they only managed 24. Death by merc accounts for at least another 29 and at least 1 died to Concord, leaving us with 71 that are open for debate. Even so, 146 is just over 5% of potential newbies (2800) exploding while they're flying a Venture during the period looked at.

The data used is from zkillboard and as such quite limited, my spreadsheet needs some work, with reference to pulling related kills where Concord pwn the attackers and other criteria such as wardecs, in order to further refine the data.

TL;DR It would appear that suicide ganking is more propaganda than action.

Discuss away.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#784 - 2016-08-02 12:01:43 UTC
People always talk about all the "new players" getting ganked...but all i see are 6+ month old characters getting ganked...

How old do you have to be in EVE these days to no longer consider yourself or be considered by others to be "new"?

I mean..back when I got recruited into EVE the friend who recruited me took me on a ratting trip into low-sec....and he and I were 100% sure we would be fine because *his* friend was along to protect us - and his friend was a grizzled 1.5 month old Veteran in an inconceivably powerful Vexor, so we were pretty much untouchable...

I mean sure we were wrong... But even so I considered myself pretty old and experienced in EVE by the 2-3 month mark... I'd been through a few wars (and gotten some kills, even a couple solo ones), I knew what I was doing, I was close to breaking into level 4 missions... I knew by then that I wasn't at the *top* of the EVE food chain - but I certainly didn't consider myself a "noob" anymore...

So how have we gone from that to a modern EVE where everybody less than 5 years old is somehow a "noob" who couldn't possibly know how to play the game properly by now and can't be held responsible for their own actions and/or mistakes???

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#785 - 2016-08-02 12:03:51 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Using one of Chribba's wonderful graphs over at Eveoffline, roughly 50-60 new characters were created every hour over the last week, that's circa 8400 new characters in a week, using 50 an hour as a baseline; admittedly a goodly chunk of those will be alts so for arguments sake we'll cut that number by 2/3 giving us 2800 potential new players. I'll also assume that the most likely ship for a newbie to be mining with is a Venture, because they get one from the tutorial, and that all Ventures are flown by newbies

To be fair - new account data is also skewed since the release of skill injectors as people are making a lot of farming alts. Since they are self-sustaining in terms of PLEX/etc, people are making quite a LOT of them, and adding to their farming armies as we go here.

No way to calculate it accurately - just something to be aware of.

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#786 - 2016-08-02 12:07:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Using one of Chribba's wonderful graphs over at Eveoffline, roughly 50-60 new characters were created every hour over the last week, that's circa 8400 new characters in a week, using 50 an hour as a baseline; admittedly a goodly chunk of those will be alts so for arguments sake we'll cut that number by 2/3 giving us 2800 potential new players. I'll also assume that the most likely ship for a newbie to be mining with is a Venture, because they get one from the tutorial, and that all Ventures are flown by newbies

To be fair - new account data is also skewed since the release of skill injectors as people are making a lot of farming alts. Since they are self-sustaining in terms of PLEX/etc, people are making quite a LOT of them, and adding to their farming armies as we go here.

No way to calculate it accurately - just something to be aware of.
Agreed, that's the main reason I dropped the figure by 66%, I actually considered dropping it by 80% which gave 1680 potential new players, somewhere in the middle is probably about right.

Thanks for pointing it out though, there is a fair bit of assumption going on and hopefully it'll clarify my thinking for others.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#787 - 2016-08-02 12:11:29 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
Demica Diaz wrote:
Ganking has many small effects on EVE but that is nowhere near the reason why EVE has less players playing. Not even close.


And can you back that up with figures, do you know miners during the gankfest of wet paper bag tanks who were ganked and stayed on, I had contacts from before that period and none of them play the game now, all dropped out during that period after getting ganked so easily.

Come on I am all ears....

Can you back up anything at all with figures?

You reference CCP devs and then can't post the evidence and every time you are asked for figures to support your arguments, you duck and cover.


I literally just posted some that disproves what he is saying.


If red frog did all the hauling in the game then yes, but they don't:...

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

John Volan
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#788 - 2016-08-02 12:15:01 UTC
My point wasn't that newbies are getting ganked but that they're hearing about ganking and it's jarring when coming from games where it would be a bannable offense for 'griefing' or something. And while that turns away a lot of newbies it's also probably for the best since I doubt they would have fit in well when the rest of the game is designed with the same harsh philosophy in mind.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#789 - 2016-08-02 12:20:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
John Volan wrote:
My point wasn't that newbies are getting ganked but that they're hearing about ganking and it's jarring when coming from games where it would be a bannable offense for 'griefing' or something. And while that turns away a lot of newbies it's also probably for the best since I doubt they would have fit in well when the rest of the game is designed with the same harsh philosophy in mind.
Ah fair enough and agreed, my bad. While newbies are the lifeblood of the game, they need to be the kind of newbie that can adapt their gameplay to a harsher environment than they're used to.

Only one of the people I've buddied into Eve has stayed, the rest found it too much of a culture shock despite loving the stuff they'd read and being forewarned by myself about what they would face in detail.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Shae Tadaruwa
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#790 - 2016-08-02 12:31:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Shae Tadaruwa
Dracvlad wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
Demica Diaz wrote:
Ganking has many small effects on EVE but that is nowhere near the reason why EVE has less players playing. Not even close.


And can you back that up with figures, do you know miners during the gankfest of wet paper bag tanks who were ganked and stayed on, I had contacts from before that period and none of them play the game now, all dropped out during that period after getting ganked so easily.

Come on I am all ears....

Can you back up anything at all with figures?

You reference CCP devs and then can't post the evidence and every time you are asked for figures to support your arguments, you duck and cover.


I literally just posted some that disproves what he is saying.


If red frog did all the hauling in the game then yes, but they don't:...

The sample size is larger than the amount required to be representative, or are you going to claim now to be an expert in scientific method?

Edit:
Since I dislike making claims without offering evidence to support anything other than opinion, here's one 3rd party you can use to investigate the sample size aspects yourself:

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

Dracvlad - "...Your intel is free intel, all you do is pay for it..." && "...If you warp on the same path as a cloaked ship, you'll make a bookmark at exactly the same spot as the cloaky camper..."

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#791 - 2016-08-02 12:37:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Dirty Forum Alt
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
The sample size is larger than the amount required to be representative, or are you going to claim now to be an expert in scientific method?

Pedant Mode Activated:

That would be Statistical Analysis, not the Scientific Method.

edit: Also statistics don't *prove* anything. Ever. It is not possible. Statistics merely *indicate* things - and when applied unscrupulously they can be used to *indicate* pretty much anything you want them to.... People who consider statistics to be "scientific" or even entirely trustworthy are, on the whole, idiots.

This is not a comment on your statistics in particular - just on statistics in general, as it is something of a pet peeve of mine.

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#792 - 2016-08-02 12:43:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Dracvlad
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:


If red frog did all the hauling in the game then yes, but they don't:...

The sample size is larger than the amount required to be representative, or are you going to claim now to be an expert in scientific method?

Edit:
Since I dislike making claims without offering evidence to support anything other than opinion, here's one 3rd party you can use to investigate the sample size aspects yourself:

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm


Well I was paid a huge amount of money in RL for this type of analysis a number of years back, what you have to understand about data samples is identifying anything that distorts that sample and makes it not representative of the whole, which is pretty evident in Red Frog, or that it does not fit with the subset you are investigating or interested in. But trying to explain that to someone like you is kinda meh.

NB Good god what idiot +1'd your post, do they even know anything about statistical analysis...

When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Shae Tadaruwa
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#793 - 2016-08-02 12:45:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Shae Tadaruwa
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
The sample size is larger than the amount required to be representative, or are you going to claim now to be an expert in scientific method?

Pedant Mode Activated:

That would be Statistical Analysis, not the Scientific Method.

Pedant away all you like. Statistical analysis being a tool used extensively in science, both terms can be used here depending on your level of abstraction. Analysis of the data itself, statistical. Answering questions, just as relevant an application of scientific method.

Not the only 2 relevant terms either.

But, distract from the concept all you like, the theory remains unchanged and in this case, unchallenged by Dracvlad's dismissiveness of the data.

Dracvlad - "...Your intel is free intel, all you do is pay for it..." && "...If you warp on the same path as a cloaked ship, you'll make a bookmark at exactly the same spot as the cloaky camper..."

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#794 - 2016-08-02 12:48:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Dirty Forum Alt
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
Dirty Forum Alt wrote:
Shae Tadaruwa wrote:
The sample size is larger than the amount required to be representative, or are you going to claim now to be an expert in scientific method?

Pedant Mode Activated:

That would be Statistical Analysis, not the Scientific Method.

In this case, the question to answer is whether ganking a significant issue.

That can be answered just as well using the scientific method as it can by statistical analysis.

So pedant away all you like. Statistical analysis being a tool used extensively in science, both terms can be used here depending on your level of abstraction. Analysis of the data itself, statistical. Answering questions, just as relevant application of scientific method.

Um...No...

This is the scientific method:

1) Define a question
2) Gather information and resources (observe)
3) Form an explanatory hypothesis
4) Test the hypothesis by performing an experiment and collecting data in a reproducible manner
5) Analyze the data
6) Interpret the data and draw conclusions that serve as a starting point for new hypothesis
7) Publish results
8) Retest (frequently done by other scientists)


Your statistics can only carry you as far as step 3. You are missing steps 4 through 8. And good luck getting published in a recognized scientific format for peer review in steps 7 and 8...


edit: Disclaimer: This is a very highly simplified form of the scientific method - you can read the link I put above for more detail...but this is *very* different from simple statistic gathering/analysis.

Statistics are a *tool* that can be used in science (albeit not a very reliable one in general) - but they are not in and of themselves scientific.


edit #2: As an example: I can survey 200 coin flips, and they may all land with the "heads" side up. My statistics will thus indicate that in a sample size of 200 - 100% of coins land head-side up.

People like you will take this and say that I have proven that any coin flipped will land head-side up 100% of the time...but we all know this is ridiculous. Just because I got bad samples for a single survey and released a misleading statistic, it doesn't make the results true for the rest of the world.

The scientific method is an intentionally difficult, long, and rigorous process to remove discrepancies of this type and to ensure that the results are actually *proven* - not merely indicated by 1 potentially skewed set of uncontrolled observations.

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#795 - 2016-08-02 13:01:55 UTC
In terms of ganking - I actually agree that it doesn't have a particularly significant impact on the game as a whole. The vast majority of shipping does go through unmolested, and even most miners don't have significant issues with ganking.

There are individual cases who are very heavily impacted by ganking - but they are the exception rather than the rule I am sure.

However, due to the nature of the game and the extremely variable nature of ganking (since it involves so many players with lives *outside* of the game/etc)...true scientific testing of a theory regarding the impact of ganking is virtually impossible. You can't *prove* anything one way or another.

So yes, statistics are probably the best you are going to get....But as previously mentioned statistics can also be manipulated to show anything you ****ing well want them to show...so both sides are going to show the statistics that favour their viewpoint, and you guys can keep on arguing until the end of time.

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
#796 - 2016-08-02 13:10:24 UTC
For example - baltec has already shown how statistics can be heavily skewed to favour his own viewpoint in the example he gave:

He gave us Red Frog data - indicating how many jumps their freighters made, and how often they got ganked.

However, as we all know - there are only a few unavoidable choke-point systems where ganking actually occurs - so freight runs that do not pass through them are irrelevant.

Additionally, the only meaningful statistic for how often ganks occur is how often they are ganked *per entire trip* - not per single gate jump. You can jump 25 gates and then get ganked 1 jump from your final destination - it still makes the entire run a failure due to ganking, even though you technically only got ganked on 4% of the gates you jumped through...

Now, since Red Frog is still in business ignoring ganks, I am quite confident that a proper statistical analysis would still favour baltec's viewpoint....but the fact remains that he wasn't satisfied with a meaningful analysis - he had to ridiculously skew the data in his own favour.

This is the sort of bad practice that gives statistics a bad name. And *this* is why they are *not* in and of themselves "scientific".

The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool. They lay. They rotted. They turned Around occasionally. Bits of flesh dropped off them from Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire. They also smelt a great deal.

Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings (Sussex)

Dracvlad
Taishi Combine
Astral Alliance
#797 - 2016-08-02 13:21:01 UTC
Dirty Forum Alt totally nailed it

My focus is on what I would call casual hisec players, what was once a large subset of the Eve population.



When the going gets tough the Gankers get their CSM rep to change mechanics in their favour.

Blocked: Teckos Pech, Sonya Corvinus, baltec1, Shae Tadaruwa, Wander Prian, Daichi Yamato, Jonah Gravenstein, Merin Ryskin, Linus Gorp

Geronimo McVain
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#798 - 2016-08-02 14:31:04 UTC
The main problem is that vets have the resources to just shrug at a 4B Isk loss while the noobs don't. I had these problems myself in the beginning and it's reducing with every Isk And ship I own. A loss of 150+M scared me away from Null for some time because I just didn't have the resources to cope with such losses while today I would just shrug. And this problem gets more severe because Noobs make more, in the eyes of vets, stupid mistakes. IMHO industrial ganks are not really a problem for noobs because they just don't have the money to make such ganks worth while. Ganks of Miners, ratters and Mission players are a more serious problem for noobs.
Caco De'mon
The Conference Elite
Safety.
#799 - 2016-08-02 15:11:32 UTC
Geronimo McVain wrote:
Ganks of Miners, ratters and Mission players are a more serious problem for noobs.


Except that the number of 3+ month players (heck even way older) earning their PLEX in HS mining is huge. This issue isn't just about one group or another group but rather the over abundance of easy to get ISK in HS that attracts ALL types of players.

Go to CODE's kill lists and just thumb through some random miner kills in barges and you will quickly see that this isn't just a rookie issue. Ice fields are a great place to see vets mining away...usually AFK.

In general, a large segment of the playebase wants as much easy ISK as possible and HS for most fits that bill. CCP would have to fundamentally change the game if it both wanted to help new players more and drive out the "greedy" vets.

*"See now that I, even I, am he, and there is no god with me: I kill, and I make alive; I wound, and I heal: neither is there any that can deliver out of my hand."

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#800 - 2016-08-02 15:51:32 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:


If red frog did all the hauling in the game then yes, but they don't:...


Don't need to look at every hauler to see a trend. If ganking is such a big problem then why is it having such an insignificant impact on the largest freight organisation?