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Let's talk about Loot Fairy
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March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2016-03-25 21:11:30 UTC
I often see in forums that people talk about loot fairy and chances of modules/cargo drop. When people talking about freighter ganks or other suicide games they often talk like this is simple equation: price of suicide ship against cargo of target.

However i have never seen any 'first hand' information about it. And looking at my kills i would be very amazed if these magical '50%' appear. I mean in March i have 69 kills (mostly ganks of FW nebros Cool). zkillboard gives 3 billions of killed stuff and it is not far from i can see from the game. And i got about 400 million in loot from all these kills.

I remember back in 2015 i was doing the same (nothing changes, hehe). And i was wondering about the same question.

So the question: where these magical '50%' came from? What they really mean? Did anyone really checked it statistically?

Thanks

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
Eli Stan
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2016-03-25 21:21:40 UTC
The value of kills include rigs, which never drop, and hulls, which also never drop.
You can kill an empty, unfitted supercarrier worth 20 billion and will get credit for that on your killboard, but you'll never ever get any loot from such kills.
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2016-03-25 21:32:49 UTC
Eli Stan wrote:
The value of kills include rigs, which never drop, and hulls, which also never drop.
You can kill an empty, unfitted supercarrier worth 20 billion and will get credit for that on your killboard, but you'll never ever get any loot from such kills.

i know about rigs, implants and stuff.
But my targets are mostly rookie ships and frigates, destroyers or industrials. There is only 1 T3 destroyer in my kill history.

I mean: price of hull + rigs is very small part of kill value and can be ignored here.

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
Memphis Baas
#4 - 2016-03-25 21:34:22 UTC
March rabbit wrote:
When people talking about freighter ganks or other suicide games they often talk like this is simple equation: price of suicide ship against cargo of target.


Price of suicide ship vs. price of target = positive kill mail = they go for it. Cargo is a bonus. If they wait for cargo they're never gonna see any PVP.
Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2016-03-25 21:44:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Tyberius Franklin
Why would you ignore the ship/rig costs? Seems a good portion of what you kill by your own description would have little to no cargo. Second, as I understand each item stack has a 50% chance to drop regardless of value, so no mechanism exists that says your loot will be half the value of the cargo from your kills. Simply that over a number of kills it may likely trend towards half of the stacks in their hold surviving.
Paranoid Loyd
#6 - 2016-03-25 22:07:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Paranoid Loyd
March rabbit wrote:
So the question: where these magical '50%' came from? What they really mean? Did anyone really checked it statistically?
Ship value has nothing to do with what drops. Each item/stack of items that can drop has a 50% chance of dropping.
When I reached 500 billion in kills, I checked my NAV and it was ~275. Accounting for the 17 bil I started with, miscellaneous PVE, the cost of my losses and market fluctuation seems about right around 50%. (Unfortunately it's hard to get an exact number for a lot of reasons but a big one is the value of things that are not commonly traded on the market are hard to properly value without doing a bunch of work.)

"There is only one authority in this game, and that my friend is violence. The supreme authority upon which all other authority is derived." ISD Max Trix

Fix the Prospect!
Ima Wreckyou
The Conference Elite
The Conference
#7 - 2016-03-25 22:34:14 UTC
If in doubt about your gut feelings you can always run some statistics for real data from zkillboard. They have an API for that.

Evil RatKid
Eli Stan
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2016-03-25 23:01:53 UTC
March rabbit wrote:

I mean: price of hull + rigs is very small part of kill value and can be ignored here.


Just the opposite is true - hull and rigs make up most of the value of PvP kills. One of the more recent kills I was on was an Omen Navy worth 91 million ISK, 75 million of that from the hull alone.
Sustrai Aditua
Intandofisa
#9 - 2016-03-26 05:00:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Sustrai Aditua
Seems to be a confusion between the word "value" (ego ride! ego ride!) and the actual ISK you wind up holding in your greedy grip when all is ca$hed in. It's a lot like the DEA's street value number...not on my street it ain't.

OP...most of the responses you got are from people who think the "value" number makes them look oh so cool.
However, the "what I ended up with for real" number (as you say) seems a little vague.
After all, that number is what really happened.

The loot fairy in running missions is now poverty stricken. The hope is the entire player base will turn to ganking. When nobody is running freighters, and everyone is gate camping...that's management's "ideal" they're after. So, regardless of the values involved, cooperate. There's a good lad.

If we get chased by zombies, I'm tripping you.
Eternus8lux8lucis
Guardians of the Gate
RAZOR Alliance
#10 - 2016-03-26 05:46:34 UTC
Having ganked for profit yes the 50% drop rate is a real CCP statistic that they have said is exactly what happens but the "loot fairy" ideology is that RNG is R in that some will drop better or worse.

The old formula used to be that you could guesstimate the value of the cargo in the hold after a scan and do the math as to how many stacks etc would potentially drop before you hit F1 and blow it up. You would subtract your ship cost minus anything you would salvage or loot from your wreck. And then on top of that you would do your own personal valuation of how much profit per gank you wanted. The more profit the longer between ganks, etc.

Now you get the I just want to make something go boom because Ive sat here too long and I want a thrill crowd. The Shai Hu'lud and Korean Ninja crowd are decreasing and its just a "cool" factor. I likely spelled Shais name wrong. Just like the m0o piracy crowd has changed into the CODE. crowd.

When you can get 60 guys together to gank a freighter but cant go for a roam with the same group it says something about the general Eve mentality.Roll

Have you heard anything I've said?

You said it's all circling the drain, the whole universe. Right?

That's right.

Had to end sometime.
Sustrai Aditua
Intandofisa
#11 - 2016-03-26 11:09:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Sustrai Aditua
Oooooh, yeah, come on. The math obviates itself. But, the antsy "time is running out" factor has to have prevailed all along. After watching a target slip away when just half the math is done probably did in math itself. That's what makes it so cheap. "That ship costs more than mine, it has to be profit."

*yawn* _____________________________ <--- insert "cry moar" or some other nonesuch such.

As long as this myth is there...we're doing the calculating, it can pass for some sort of intelligent activity...NO?

If we get chased by zombies, I'm tripping you.
Paranoid Loyd
#12 - 2016-03-26 16:28:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Paranoid Loyd
Mmmmm, love me some Serene tears. It's so easy to trigger you. Lol

"There is only one authority in this game, and that my friend is violence. The supreme authority upon which all other authority is derived." ISD Max Trix

Fix the Prospect!
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2016-03-28 09:34:38 UTC
Thanks to all! I think i got it.

/close

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"