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You are aware if course, that any complex system is stable, until it isn't, and that tipping point, is almost vanishingly small. Some consider that the secondary definition of a complex system, some believe it satisfies the conditions to be it's primary definition.
The phase change of water is a complex system, and we can measure the tipping point precisely, based on temperature, purity, and pressure to a very high degree of accuracy.

I think that anyone of sound mind would consider the EVE economy more complex than water. So, it will be interesting from a scientific economists viewpoint to determine the tipping point, less so for the player base.

The point is, until it happens, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to determine the tipping point, so comments like "it has handled it so far" are beyond any meaning whatsoever.

Lucas - pretty close to what I expected from you, anyone who has spent as much time as you hiding behind a giant coalition would have the same opinion.
Who cares if X amount quit because they are being harassed by Goon wannabees. No single group would be able to stand up to Goons and their pets if they decide to attack your Citadel, not everyone has a few trillion isk to pay Tishu.

"All they can do" and you honestly don't see that as a scam and a way to steal peoples isk? Pay the owner fees to set up your trade, then he can just kick you out when he feels like - Has SCAM, THIEVES don't move to a Citadel, written all over.
Problem is someone at CCP also thinks it is ok for the power blocks to rip off anyone they choose or we wouldn't be having this discussion.
CCP wants to force players to use facilities that are deliberately open to misuse and theft of others isk by their owners.

And no, the margin on a lot of stuff is small because it is not worth using or has had its value removed by module terricide. I used to do quit well buying and selling named T1 afterburners and mwd's. Those same items today sell for less than it costs to haul them to market. How much will they be worth to a re-seller with higher market costs to sell them?


So like CCP you believe Xlarge Citadels should only be owned by the richest groups in Eve - The groups who saved their isk just to try and build a future for their groups have no place because they don't have a few hundred bil to replace a citadel at the drop of a hat.

It really is probably a good idea the same people who play at being game designers for CCP don't actually have anything to do with running CCP, they would go broke in no time. A player driven market in eve is not achievable while ever CCP manipulate it. Doing it with Plex and Aurum sales is bad enough, now they are directly manipulating the markets with game mechanics.

Okay, so 700 trillion is traded in the Forge, and their taxes? 7 trillion or about 1% at most? Sorry, that is a small RELATIVE number. Here, let me give you a helpful hint, in economics while absolute numbers are not irrelevant, the vastly more important numbers are the RELATIVE numbers. What is the price RELATIVE to your income, RELATIVE to substitutes, etc.

So you can knock off the nonsense about 10 trillion ISK in taxes. It is small. If somebody came and took 1% of my income would I roll over and die? No. Not in game nor in RL. Would I like it? No, but I'd adjust and move on.

Similarly if it went from 1% to 5% things will adjust. Prices will go up, and quantity available would go down. For example, prices would increase and partially offset that increase in taxes. Some would likely exit the labor force as well or that market. But there are other areas in the game that can provide income.

And your list is not complete. If an XL citadel is dropped in Perimeter then some of those effects maybe offset if people start doing trade there. There will definitely be a period of adjustment, but the Eve economy has handled similar disruptions just fine.

Look if you are going to bring in Chaos Theory or dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions I have bad, bad news for you. There ain't no pony there. They have looked and looked and in the end they concluded nope, economies do not exhibit such traits. See the research of William 'Buzz' Brock. They did alot of cool math, but no "chaos".

The Eve market has come through much larger changes just fine. Now this time it might be different, but I'm skeptical. Very, very skeptical.

Nice try though.

Edit: And this is for modern economies that are far, far more complicated than a video game economy. Look at our last economic problem, the financial crisis. We had complex financial instruments like Mortgage Backed Securities, Certified Deb Obligations and Credit Default Swaps and even "Naked" Credit Default Swaps. We have NOTHING like that in the EVE economy. We have far, far, far less leverage as well.

No. People are doing a fine imitation of Cassandra here, but it is alot of useless hand wringing that has nothing to do with the game economy IMO, and more to do with "Oh noes, my PROFITS!!!!" It is just blatant rent seeking.

This ain't it. To be quite honest, I think 99.9% of the people in this thread are more worried about their profits than the EVE economy, but are using the "economy argument" as cover for their desire to protect their profits.

The economy will be fine, and can probably do with more ISK being sunk out of it.

Dawwww... adorable.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened_self-interest

Seriously, read it. As far as it applies to EVE, it's that by giving everyone else a low cost, stable, reliable place to trade, a Citadel benefits the owner far more than if acting out of immediate selfishness. Closing a citadel doesn't make sense since you can only make money when they list orders, you get nothing more when they cancel it, and you get nothing more when they use the asset recovery to retrieve their stuff, and you lose all the future income you might have had.

You think that if given four cows, the action of people will to slaughter them to make dinner that night, and waste 99% of the meat.

Instead of milking the cow for years, and generating thousands or tens of thousands of times the value of immediately slaughtering them.

How you came to this conclusions, I don't know, but it's going to be wildly inaccurate.

By the way, do I see it right that there are two opinions on this forum?
- "Great" - Imperium members
- "Absolutely game-breaking and end of EVE" - everyone else

It seems that whoever Goon CSM managed to plant this citadel market idea in CCP achieved the great goal: destroy everyone else's game.

It isn't hope. The economy has survived far, far larger shocks.

Why I think the deadzone theory is unlikely.

Yes, an alliance could set up an XL citadel. Beaver away at getting people to come start trading. Let us suppose this works.

There is just one tiny problem. This is not without costs. Depending on how long your do it potential very large costs.

A quick one page calculation suggests than an XL citadel that is deadzoned comes with a price of about 3.3 trillion ISK.

Assumptions:

Fuel blocks cost: 90,000
Fuel block consumption: 750/hour
Citadel is dead zoned time frame: Indefinite (i.e. no fixed horizon, so the infinite horizon is used--makes the math a bit easier)
Assumed an interest rate of 1.5%/month.

And that 3.3 trillion is just for the fuel costs. That is, it is the loss of being able to take the ISK value of the fuel costs each month and going over to the Market Discussion forum and putting into collateralized bonds along with rolling the profits over into that process as well. For example, if my fuel costs are 10 billion I'd go drop 10 billion on a bond. So next month I'd have another 10 billion to invest along with the interest from the first 10 billion or 500,000,000 and so on. As you can see that ISK will start to pile up rapidly thanks to compounding interest.

If we factored in the loss of interest one could have earned on the initial citadel cost it will be even higher (by about 120 billion).

Yes, it could be done. There are NS alliances with the kind of cash flow to do this. But it really is like cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. But hey, this is Eve so who knows.

Oh, and this includes no opportunity costs such as the poor guy(s) that have to do the fueling, the guys who set up the citadel and recruited the traders, etc.

Edit: And I am not counting any lost revenues either. So, if it was positive in terms of profits those are additional losses too.

I just see this fear as one that is born or extreme paranoia.

The dead-zone theory is not unlikely, it is flat up impossible.

You can trigger asset recovery, at any time, in any citadel, anywhere. The citadel does NOT need to be destroyed, reinforced, or denied docking first.

Even if you cannot dock, cannot use the market, cannot create a contract there, cannot jump clone there, cannot use any services of any kind, you can still use asset recovery to move everything to another station in system for free, or to a system in another nearby station for a small fee.