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Jita: Live Market Update - Skill Injector Prices Crashing
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Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#101 - 2016-02-10 08:34:09 UTC
Dyllan Ma'tar wrote:

This is assuming there aren't characters being used as SP mules that are already at the 5 mil SP minimum, meaning the time it will take will be the time to train 500k SP.


You're absolutely right, there will be, however it's fair to say that this supply is far slower moving and much smaller than the initial flood of 13 years of unwanted skills. It can't flex to meet price spikes. Cool

There will be a disconnect between supply and pricing, an in-elasticity which I think it's fair to say could lead to a colossal price bubble in the coming weeks or months.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#102 - 2016-02-10 08:38:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Kalgeroth
I wouldn't be surprised if others also made a lot of ISK yesterday, buying up cheap characters when they could and reselling the SP

you can't do it anymore as people have realised the value of the SP, but i suspect some individuals are much richer today than they were yesterday
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#103 - 2016-02-10 08:48:13 UTC
Kalgeroth wrote:
Dyllan Ma'tar wrote:

This is assuming there aren't characters being used as SP mules that are already at the 5 mil SP minimum, meaning the time it will take will be the time to train 500k SP.


You're absolutely right, there will be, however it's fair to say that this supply is far slower moving and much smaller than the initial flood of 13 years of unwanted skills. It can't flex to meet price spikes. Cool

There will be a disconnect between supply and pricing, an in-elasticity which I think it's fair to say could lead to a colossal price bubble in the coming weeks or months.


No bubble coming. The initial demand was so high that the traded plex was 3.5 times higher than normal. Why? People wanted skill injectors. Now that those people have them, demand will drop off sharply.
Chasida
Instant Annihilation
#104 - 2016-02-10 08:53:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Chasida
But who is buying all these injectors?! Any high skill char has little use for them, the gained skills are low for high skill chars compared to the cost, so the return will be rather small.

The only use I can see for this is low skill alts. Not even new players are likely the buyers, because they will not have the ISK to buy them.

Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...

I do understand who all the sellers are, but I do not understand who all the buyers (and users) are! As I said only logical buyers I can come up with are low skill alts for players with A LOT of ISK.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#105 - 2016-02-10 08:54:42 UTC
Chasida wrote:
But who is buying all these injectors?! Any high skill char has little use for them, the gained skills are low for high skill chars compared to the cost, so the return will be rather small.

The only use I can see for this is low skill alts. Not even new players are likely the buyers, because they will not have the ISK to buy them.

Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...

I do understand who all the sellers are, but I do not understand who all the buyers (and users) are! As I said only logical buyers U can come up with are low skill alts for players with A LOT of ISK.


According to the official metric, the majority of injectors were used by characters under 50m sp. What they did was dump plex on the market to come up with their isk. Oh well.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#106 - 2016-02-10 08:56:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Kalgeroth
Ria Nieyli wrote:


No bubble coming. The initial demand was so high that the traded plex was 3.5 times higher than normal. Why? People wanted skill injectors. Now that those people have them, demand will drop off sharply.


What happens when they want that next ship, a FAX or Carrier, or to get Capital Turret 5 on their dread so they can get top damage? There is always 'the next thing'. Cool

You assume that people want certain skills and they got them all yesterday. Done deal, no more. If you will forgive me saying so, that seems like a very silly suggestion and I cannot imagine being anywhere near the truth. Oops
Chasida
Instant Annihilation
#107 - 2016-02-10 08:57:50 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:
Chasida wrote:
But who is buying all these injectors?! Any high skill char has little use for them, the gained skills are low for high skill chars compared to the cost, so the return will be rather small.

The only use I can see for this is low skill alts. Not even new players are likely the buyers, because they will not have the ISK to buy them.

Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...

I do understand who all the sellers are, but I do not understand who all the buyers (and users) are! As I said only logical buyers U can come up with are low skill alts for players with A LOT of ISK.


According to the official metric, the majority of injectors were used by characters under 50m sp. What they did was dump plex on the market to come up with their isk. Oh well.


Then why didnt the Plex price go down if a lot of people were dumping Plex? It should have gone down, instead it went a little bit up.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#108 - 2016-02-10 08:59:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Kalgeroth
Chasida wrote:


Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...


According to CCP, 30bn was extracted yesterday and 21bn was injected. So there isn't much hoarding going on when you account for the injectors sitting on the market.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#109 - 2016-02-10 08:59:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Chasida wrote:
Then why didnt the Plex price go down if a lot of people were dumping Plex? It should have gone down, instead it went a little bit up.


Because people were mass converting plex to extractors.

Kalgeroth wrote:
What happens when they want that next ship, a FAX or Carrier, or to get Capital Turret 5 on their dread so they can get top damage? There is always 'the next thing'. Cool

You assume that people want certain skills and they got them all yesterday. Done deal, no more. If you will forgive me saying so, that seems like a very silly suggestion and I cannot imagine being anywhere near the truth. Oops


Except that they already have their next thing. And yes, people want certain skills and they're getting them now. Or got them yesterday. The more SP you have, the less you need to buy, so naturally the demand will drop sharply. Which part of that are you unable to understand?

Kalgeroth wrote:
According to CCP, 30bn was extracted yesterday and 24bn was injected. So there isn't much hoarding going on when you account for the injectors sitting on the market.


21b was injected, not 24b. http://puu.sh/n2kaz/ad988266a5.png Basic maths.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#110 - 2016-02-10 09:06:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Kalgeroth
Ria Nieyli wrote:
[

Except that they already have their next thing. And yes, people want certain skills and they're getting them now. Or got them yesterday. The more SP you have, the less you need to buy, so naturally the demand will drop sharply. Which part of that are you unable to understand?


My dear Ria, by your..ahem..'logic', people would have one training goal forever and then simply stop training forever once they reach it. Clearly that is not the case Cool

Aspirations change, alliance doctrines change, new ships or modules get introduced, there is rebalancing. The constant evolution of EVE and the constant shifting of peoples prefereces guarentees a market for injectors for as long as the servers are online. Lol

And given the price of injectors, the notion that yesterday suddenly every player in EVE recieved all the SP they ever need is clearly a very, very silly idea indeed. Back of the class for you and no treats at playtime. Attention
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#111 - 2016-02-10 09:13:40 UTC
LET'S BREAK THIS DOWN

Arrow There are, what, 250,000 active accounts?
Arrow Let's assume an average of 2 chars on each account = 500,000 active chars
Arrow 21bn SP was injected yesterday.
Arrow That's 42,000 SP for each char

Barely enough for Racial Frigate IV

Somehow I don't think the market for SP is exhausted quite yet.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#112 - 2016-02-10 09:14:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Kalgeroth wrote:
Aspirations change, alliance doctrines change, new ships or modules get introduced, there is rebalancing. The constant evolution of EVE and the constant shifting of peoples prefereces guarentees a market for injectors for as long as the servers are online. Lol

And given the price of injectors, the notion that yesterday suddenly every player in EVE recieved all the SP they ever need is clearly a very, very silly idea indeed. Back of the class for you and no treats at playtime. Attention


Well if you want to stick your head in the sand and ignore reality, that's fine too.

Kalgeroth wrote:
LET'S BREAK THIS DOWN

Arrow There are, what, 250,000 active accounts?
Arrow Let's assume an average of 2 chars on each account = 500,000 active chars
Arrow 21bn SP was injected yesterday.
Arrow That's 42,000 SP for each char

Barely enough for Racial Frigate IV

Somehow I don't think the market for SP is exhausted quite yet.


You seem to be assuming a whole lot with no proof whatsoever. In fact, part of the supply comes from older characters getting rid of unwanted skills, yet you assume they used injectors. And what's more you assume that those SAME people will keep injecting.
iBLACK MAMBA
The Monocled Elite
#113 - 2016-02-10 09:22:10 UTC
I'm no economist, but it seems that the people who think there could be a temporary price bubble are onto something and there is good reason for believing that. For 13 years, you've had unwanted skills building up and people could, for the first time, sell those for ISK yesterday. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.

That flood of supply will mean the market for injectors is currently not typical of how it will play out in the long-term. The market WILL change. It's reasonable and logical to assume that the reduction in supply will lead to a price increase.

It's not guaranteed, of course, but it is the most sensible conclusion I've read so far.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#114 - 2016-02-10 09:24:31 UTC
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:
I'm no economist, but it seems that the people who think there could be a temporary price bubble are onto something and there is good reason for believing that. For 13 years, you've had unwanted skills building up and people could, for the first time, sell those for ISK yesterday. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.

That flood of supply will mean the market for injectors is currently not typical of how it will play out in the long-term. The market WILL change. It's reasonable and logical to assume that the reduction in supply will lead to a price increase.

It's not guaranteed, of course, but it is the most sensible conclusion I've read so far.


And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.

You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it.
Kalgeroth
Doomheim
#115 - 2016-02-10 09:25:27 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:


You seem to be assuming a whole lot with no proof whatsoever. In fact, part of the supply comes from older characters getting rid of unwanted skills, yet you assume they used injectors. And what's more you assume that those SAME people will keep injecting.


None of that is accurate. Attention

I quoted some figures and made a reasonable assumption based on it. I don't know if I am right or not, but I do believe that I will be right based on the reasons I've stated. Cool

Time will tell. If prices start increasing after 7 days and an upward trend is apparent through to 2-3 months, I will be proved correct. Let's see how the market plays out. I don't know why you're so offended by my predictions but feel free to make your own, and then time will prove us right or wrong Big smile
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#116 - 2016-02-10 09:28:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Kalgeroth wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:


You seem to be assuming a whole lot with no proof whatsoever. In fact, part of the supply comes from older characters getting rid of unwanted skills, yet you assume they used injectors. And what's more you assume that those SAME people will keep injecting.


None of that is accurate. Attention

I quoted some figures and made a reasonable assumption based on it. I don't know if I am right or not, but I do believe that I will be right based on the reasons I've stated. Cool

Time will tell. If prices start increasing after 7 days and an upward trend is apparent through to 2-3 months, I will be proved correct. Let's see how the market plays out. I don't know why you're so offended by my predictions but feel free to make your own, and then time will prove us right or wrong Big smile


Yes, it is accurate. If you think I'm offended, let me remind you that you're the one making bellitling remarks.

Injector price is tied to PLEX price and will crawl behind it. That's it. End of story. No bubble. Period. It's that simple. Your reasonable assumptions don't hold water. You claim that people who got rid of unwanted SP sold it on the market, then bought injectors back and used them.
iBLACK MAMBA
The Monocled Elite
#117 - 2016-02-10 09:29:12 UTC  |  Edited by: iBLACK MAMBA
Ria Nieyli wrote:


And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.

You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it.


I see your point, however the demand is elastic while the supply is inelastic. This is what could lead to a price bubble. In other words, it's possible (and feasible) for demand to remain high, but it's impossible for supply to remain as high (certainly not in the short-term at least).

Is a price bubble possible because of this? Absolutely, it is. Will it happen? Not sure. I think prices will rise but won't get too out of hand. I'm predicting 800-900m for a few months before dropping back to 750m after 3 months or so.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#118 - 2016-02-10 09:34:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:


And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.

You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it.


I see your point, however the demand is elastic while the supply is inelastic. This is what could lead to a price bubble. In other words, it's possible (and feasible) for demand to remain high, but it's impossible for supply to remain as high (certainly not in the short-term at least).

Is a price bubble possible because of this? Absolutely, it is. Will it happen? Not sure. I think prices will rise but won't get too out of hand. I'm predicting 800-900m for a few months before dropping back to 750m after 3 months or so.


Why? There's a lot of cheap characters on the bazaar that can be gutted. There'll be people having SP farm alts as well.

Meanwhile, the majority of people that wanted skills already bought. Consumer interest would be a trickle after the initial market boom.

At 1.3b PLEX, 800-900m per injector is right within the normal expected range.
iBLACK MAMBA
The Monocled Elite
#119 - 2016-02-10 09:39:42 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:


Why? There's a lot of cheap characters on the bazaar that can be gutted. There'll be people having SP farm alts as well.

Meanwhile, the majority of people that wanted skills already bought. Consumer interest would be a trickle after the initial market boom.


Sadly there are no cheap characters on the bazaar any more, not since people understand the value of extracted skill points. Trust me as I made good ISK buying cheap chars a few months ago. It's no longer possible. Maybe small profits if you're lucky, nothing spectacular. But I don't think SP is like buying a car or shiny new phone - buy it once and be happy with it. These things will be in constant demand by people who are impatient to train quickly, and the price will be driven not my logical and rational individuals like you and I, but my emotion and impatience. So the price could become highly irrational and detached from common sense.

The truth though is that demand is elastic and supply is inelastic, no matter our opinion on anything else, and this means that a price bubble is possible. Anyway, I'm not invested in this, I've made my ISK. Good luck to all parties involved.
Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
#120 - 2016-02-10 09:45:04 UTC
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:


Why? There's a lot of cheap characters on the bazaar that can be gutted. There'll be people having SP farm alts as well.

Meanwhile, the majority of people that wanted skills already bought. Consumer interest would be a trickle after the initial market boom.


Sadly there are no cheap characters on the bazaar any more, not since people understand the value of extracted skill points. Trust me as I made good ISK buying cheap chars a few months ago. It's no longer possible. Maybe small profits if you're lucky, nothing spectacular. But I don't think SP is like buying a car or shiny new phone - buy it once and be happy with it. These things will be in constant demand by people who are impatient to train quickly, and the price will be driven not my logical and rational individuals like you and I, but my emotion and impatience. So the price could become highly irrational and detached from common sense.

The truth though is that demand is elastic and supply is inelastic, no matter our opinion on anything else, and this means that a price bubble is possible. Anyway, I'm not invested in this, I've made my ISK. Good luck to all parties involved.



The 800-900m range you indicated in your previous post would hardly be indicative of a price bubble, however.