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Market analysis questions
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Jean Duchesnois
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2015-12-14 23:30:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Jean Duchesnois
Greetings, so the main goal of this topic for me is to learn to identify 2 type of items.

- First, I've been margin trading for a while. Not that I haven't been making money with it, but I'd like to do it on a more efficient, and less random way. It doesn't bother me to manage my orders a lot, as soon as there is not too many of them. So I'd like to learn to identify items which have very quick turnover, with a relatively good amount of ISK to hold. At first I thought that items wtih a big volume were meeting those conditions, but I've learnt that a big volume doesn't always mean a quick turnover.

Question #1 : how do I know an item may have a very fast turnover, besides testing it ?

- Second, I want to put some of my ISK into goods that I'd wait longer (weeks / month) to sell. And so I should learn to try to predict how the price of an item is going to evolve. I already got tracks, as I notice some threshold between which price is continuously bouncing (i . e it goes from 100k to 200k, then goes back to 100k and climb again to 200k, on and on). Unfortunatly sometimes price break those threshold, and if it's for going down my investment is screwed.

Question #2 : how can I predict where the price are going, from the curves (this means I already know that checking patched and eve news help a lot for some items) ? (I know there's no way to know it 100%, but to at least have an idea of what's going on).

Thanks o/
Ms Sade
Hammertime Holding
Division Nine Alliance
#2 - 2015-12-14 23:36:03 UTC
Jean Duchesnois wrote:
Greetings, so the main goal of this topic for me is to learn to identify 2 type of items.

- First, I've been margin trading for a while. Not that I haven't been making money with it, but I'd like to do it on a more efficient, and less random way. It doesn't bother me to manage my orders a lot, as soon as there is not too many of them. So I'd like to learn to identify items which have very quick turnover, with a relatively good amount of ISK to hold. At first I thought that items wtih a big volume were meeting those conditions, but I've learnt that a big volume doesn't always mean a quick turnover.

Question #1 : how do I know an item may have a very fast turnover, besides testing it ?

- Second, I want to put some of my ISK into goods that I'd wait longer (weeks / month) to sell. And so I should learn to try to predict how the price of an item is going to evolve. I already got tracks, as I notice some threshold between which price is continuously bouncing (i . e it goes from 100k to 200k, then goes back to 100k and climb again to 200k, on and on). Unfortunatly sometimes price break those threshold, and if it's for going down my investment is screwed.

Question #2 : how can I predict where the price are going, from the curves (this means I already know that checking patched and eve news help a lot for some items) ? (I know there's no way to know it 100%, but to at least have an idea of what's going on).

Thanks o/


Try a search for posts by Vaerah Vahrokha in this forum; they might be able to help you answer question 2.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#3 - 2015-12-15 00:28:42 UTC
Big volume going equally to buys and sells = good turnover.

Big volume going only from sells = good turnover if you are a producer.


Items which have a high turnover are going to be those that are used widely throughout eve, whether that be certain modules which are used on pretty much every fit, or ships which are used regularly as throwaways.

They should also be items that are easy to produce or acquire, because you need them coming into the market, as much as you need people stopping into your shop to buy them.

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Rykker Bow
Center for Advanced Studies
#4 - 2015-12-15 00:54:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Rykker Bow
Check the orders and quantities columns in the price history tables. That'll show you quickly how many orders go through and roughly how many are sold/bought for each order. To fine tune your info you'll have to keep notes as each item has it's own personality that's further defined by your own trading style. The items I trade, while basically staying the same over the years, is in continual refinement as some items fall out of demand and new items find their way in.

On figuring out long term trends and strategies, start reading VV and others for techincal information. Build up a knowledge base from his into and others then form, test and refine your techniques.

It seems you have a good ability to take in and sort information, it'll be interesting to see where you go.

gl

The Mjolnir Bloc - Lowsec PvP for the sophisticated - The Mjolnir Bloc Killboards
Thouncy
Perkone
Caldari State
#5 - 2015-12-15 20:25:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Thouncy
1.) Pretty simple, high turn over rate is going to be dependent on the demand for that item. Logically it makes sense that high-volume items will be more in demand due to the need to have large amounts of it at a time, but generally all you have to look for are items that people need.

You're on the right track by checking patches and eve news for the price changes, but look at them for the demand of items too. If a ship is getting buffed or a resource is needed for the new big shiney thing, you can bet that even low volume items involved will be selling like crazy when that goes in effect.

2.) Honestly same proccess, the market is going to adjust based on the demand (Thing I love about EVE is that with the exception a few interventions, it's a free market) meaning that demand for an item is going to be the most determining factor for the price. I;e if demand rises (more people want the item) then the price will rise with it.
SJ Astralana
Syncore
#6 - 2015-12-16 00:01:08 UTC
There's a data mining tool in here begging to happen. I've done it on the producer side, and everything needed is in CREST. Keep a history and you can then track trends and volatility.

Hyperdrive your production business: Eve Production Manager

Jean Duchesnois
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2015-12-16 04:57:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Jean Duchesnois
SJ Astralana wrote:
There's a data mining tool in here begging to happen. I've done it on the producer side, and everything needed is in CREST. Keep a history and you can then track trends and volatility.


Ok so you mean you've built something to extract market data with CREST ? Because that's what I'm looking for at the moment.

EDIT : to be more accurate I'd like to have something similar to what EveMarketHistoryDump was doing. If I didn't misunderstood cash scratching is now illegal and therefor it's easier done with CREST, but I don't know anything about programming & co, therefore I haven't found any tool that would lead to this result.
Darkstar01
Doomheim
#8 - 2015-12-16 08:19:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Darkstar01
Jean Duchesnois wrote:



Question #1 : how do I know an item may have a very fast turnover, besides testing it ?

Question #2 : how can I predict where the price are going, from the curves (this means I already know that checking patched and eve news help a lot for some items) ? (I know there's no way to know it 100%, but to at least have an idea of what's going on).

Thanks o/


1. The Regional volume

2. Technical analysis in Eve Online is kind of useless, so you can't really tell where things are going by looking at the curves - Investment decisions are based on fundamentals of the game, rather than technical analysis.
Any short term trading profit that can be made using "technical analysis" would be so small that it's not worth mentioning.
Jean Duchesnois
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2015-12-16 08:37:31 UTC
Darkstar01 wrote:

2. Technical analysis in Eve Online is kind of useless, so you can't really tell where things are going by looking at the curves - Investment decisions are based on fundamentals of the game, rather than technical analysis.
Any short term trading profit that can be made using "technical analysis" would be so small that it's not worth mentioning.


What if my first motivation is the fun of trying it ? :)
Buzz Orti
State War Academy
Caldari State
#10 - 2015-12-19 19:18:21 UTC
Maybe it depends on price that you set the items at as well as the volume for demands.

Obviously, your profit would come from the sale, and if your acquiring costs was less.


In other words, if you had to leave the item on the market for months before the sale,
it may be due to others selling their items at a lower price.

Their lower price may mean a lesser profit for you if you were to sell it at that price.


In that case, make sure that you include the value of the depreciation of money into the equation of profit .

Builds ship in empty Quafe bottle.
Buzz Orti
State War Academy
Caldari State
#11 - 2016-01-31 02:21:01 UTC
Turnover or rate of return on items depends and vary on many factors.

The speed at which an item pays 100% on investment varies on more factors than volume.

Builds ship in empty Quafe bottle.