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The kills of 2014: statistical analysis on the zkillboard data
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Gevlon Goblin
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1 - 2015-10-26 16:41:13 UTC
Zkillboard is collecting most of the kills in New Eden. Too bad that they make no useful statistics. The reason for that is inflation (often called "whoring"): if multiple pilots (corps, alliances) are present on a kill, each of them gets a full kill and full ISK value, even if he just shot a titan with a noobship. The result is that according to zkillboard 384T ISK was lost, but pilots got 8264T kills. The second number obviously should be smaller than the first, the difference being losses to NPCs and structures.

Hanura H'arasch managed to download all the zkillboard kills for 2014 and uploaded it for me in a human-readable format, processable by my limited programming skills. I de-inflated the kills: if 100 people were on the kill report of a 200M ship, each of them got 2M destroyed. Alliances and corps were credited for their damage done, so PL got more for their guy in a titan than random corp for their guy in a noobship. My primary goal was to understand how alliances perform against their enemies, (for example, here is the analysis on Goons) however I found something bigger:

  • 502778 pilots got on kill reports (as killer or victim), but only 7K was responsible for half of the destruction. Yes, that means that 98.6% of the pilots did the other half. More details here.
  • 30K pilots (6%) was over 50% ISK ratio, if we remove inflation. With inflation, everyone and his mother was around 97%. Remember, you needed one shot on a public titan to be ISK positive for the rest of your life.
  • The top pilot, Santo Trafficante did 897B damage, without inflation.
  • NPC corps were the second biggest killer "alliance". (first being Goonswarm)
  • Marmite was #4, CODE was #7
  • Top corporation: The Conference Elite
  • NC. had 46% ISK ratio, Nulli had 42%
  • Deadliest region: Catch. Second: The Forge.
  • Top ship loss: Tengu, followed by Ishtar, Archon and Moros.
  • 1/6 of the damage was done by a solo pilot. Another 1/6 by a gang of 2 or 3. Fleets over 30 members did less than 1/6 of the damage.
  • PvP is heavily EUTZ, 20T/hour was destroyed. USTZ (6T/hour) is barely higher than AUTZ (4T/hour)



I hope these info reveals that most of the myths about EVE PvP (solo is dead, only big sov alliances matter, NC. is elite, YOU ARE OVER 50% ISK ratio) are wrong. Feel free to download the dataset yourself and find things I couldn't.

I analyzed the top 30 alliances (table of contents in any of the linked posts), if you wish more to be analyzed, send 1B to Mordus Angels and an EVE-mail to me on the same pilot.

My blog: greedygoblin.blogspot.com
Dradis Aulmais
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2015-10-26 17:22:30 UTC
Instead of giving equal splits I.e if 100 people on a 200mil kill each would get 2mill kill I would have distributed the kill according to damage done. That way if I take a pot shot I don't get the equal value as the guy who did 99% damage.

Dradis Aulmais, Federal Attorney Number 54896

Free The Scope Three
Romvex
TURN LEFT
#3 - 2015-10-26 17:56:13 UTC
Dradis Aulmais wrote:
Instead of giving equal splits I.e if 100 people on a 200mil kill each would get 2mill kill I would have distributed the kill according to damage done. That way if I take a pot shot I don't get the equal value as the guy who did 99% damage.

Honestly I see no reason for it to not work like this
Tisiphone Dira
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2015-10-26 18:28:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Tisiphone Dira
Because who here is responsible for the kill, who did the most damage?

There once was a ganker named tisi

A stunningly beautiful missy

To gank a gross miner

There is nothing finer, cept when they get all pissy
Gevlon Goblin
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#5 - 2015-10-26 20:45:10 UTC
I used damage % distribution for alliances and corps. For pilots there was too much crying about "what about logi and tackle who do little damage but necessary"? - so I went with equal distribution.

The two distributions correlate with 0.9 R2, so there is little difference in their results.

My blog: greedygoblin.blogspot.com
Chainsaw Plankton
FaDoyToy
#6 - 2015-10-26 20:56:37 UTC
the 0 damage logi who is just tagging to be on the KM might be more important in the fight than the 2,000 damage dealing cruiser, now is the 2000 damage cruiser more or less important than the 10,000 damage battleship? well depends on what cruiser, if it is the instalock hic, or a curse it might be, a week old pilot in a vexor maybe not. and how about the 12,000 damage tornado that fired one volley to get on the mail and steal the final blow. Or someone who got a few hits in, but then got jammed out, similar probabilities for everyone to get jammed.

dividing it out by number of people on the kill is also flawed (see 0 damage noob ship above), but probably a better way to do it.

@ChainsawPlankto on twitter
Tiberius Heth
Doomheim
#7 - 2015-10-26 20:59:55 UTC
Romvex wrote:
Dradis Aulmais wrote:
Instead of giving equal splits I.e if 100 people on a 200mil kill each would get 2mill kill I would have distributed the kill according to damage done. That way if I take a pot shot I don't get the equal value as the guy who did 99% damage.

Honestly I see no reason for it to not work like this


That would be ideal and would counter whoring and give a much more accurate "what have you actually contributed", atm it favours blob crap. Sadly the damage done bit on KM rarely is truly accurate especially so in fleets. Still, I'd be all for it but I can see people objecting against it for that very reason.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#8 - 2015-10-26 21:42:17 UTC
EU PvP master race confirmed

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
Jenshae Chiroptera
#9 - 2015-10-26 22:49:50 UTC
I would love to see a de-inflated kill board where only combat ships register. Pop the padders bubbles.

CCP - Building ant hills and magnifying glasses for fat kids

Not even once

EVE is becoming shallow and puerile; it will satisfy neither the veteran nor the "WoW" type crowd in the transition.
Dradis Aulmais
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#10 - 2015-10-26 23:05:40 UTC
I'm a dictor pilot I do no damage and honestly that's fine. I can hold you in place forever but that does me no good killing you.

Dradis Aulmais, Federal Attorney Number 54896

Free The Scope Three
Mephiztopheleze
Laphroaig Inc.
#11 - 2015-10-26 23:25:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Mephiztopheleze
Gevlon Goblin wrote:

  • The top pilot, Santo Trafficante did 897B damage, without inflation.

    • How much of this was smartbombing pods in Tama?
    I'd guess ~100% of it.

    edit:
    I find it more than passing strange that FomkA made 199 on your list of 'top pilots' with zero damage done and a horrific amount of damage taken when his Ragnarok returned from a two year hiatus only to get insta-blapped.

    I think your statistical analysis is somewhat, err, flawed.

    Occasional Resident Newbie Correspondent for TMC: http://themittani.com/search/site/mephiztopheleze

    This is my Forum Main. My Combat Alt is sambo Inkura
    Ima Wreckyou
    The Conference Elite
    Safety.
    #12 - 2015-10-26 23:39:31 UTC
    Even science says the Code always wins. ALWAYS!

    Evil RatKid
    Yang Aurilen
    State War Academy
    Caldari State
    #13 - 2015-10-27 01:07:44 UTC
    Confirming that AU TZ is suffering.

    Post with your NPC alt main and not your main main alt!
    Scipio Artelius
    Weaponised Vegemite
    Flying Dangerous
    #14 - 2015-10-27 02:19:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Scipio Artelius
    Congrats to Paranoid Loyd for top 20.

    and to Ima Wreckyou for 74th (pretty close to last year if I remember correctly)
    Gevlon Goblin
    Science and Trade Institute
    Caldari State
    #15 - 2015-10-27 05:00:14 UTC
    Mephiztopheleze wrote:

    I find it more than passing strange that FomkA made 199 on your list of 'top pilots' with zero damage done and a horrific amount of damage taken when his Ragnarok returned from a two year hiatus only to get insta-blapped.
    I think your statistical analysis is somewhat, err, flawed.

    The header before the "toplist" clearly says "Below you can see the most active pilots of 2014, sorted by damage+losses." FomkA is indeed the #199 contributor to the 2014 killboard, just not on the happy side.

    My blog: greedygoblin.blogspot.com
    Curossa Carmalyne
    Doomheim
    #16 - 2015-10-27 05:07:15 UTC
    Gevlon Goblin wrote:
    Zkillboard is collecting most of the kills in New Eden. Too bad that they make no useful statistics. The reason for that is inflation (often called "whoring"): if multiple pilots (corps, alliances) are present on a kill, each of them gets a full kill and full ISK value, even if he just shot a titan with a noobship. The result is that according to zkillboard 384T ISK was lost, but pilots got 8264T kills. The second number obviously should be smaller than the first, the difference being losses to NPCs and structures.

    Hanura H'arasch managed to download all the zkillboard kills for 2014 and uploaded it for me in a human-readable format, processable by my limited programming skills. I de-inflated the kills: if 100 people were on the kill report of a 200M ship, each of them got 2M destroyed. Alliances and corps were credited for their damage done, so PL got more for their guy in a titan than random corp for their guy in a noobship. My primary goal was to understand how alliances perform against their enemies, (for example, here is the analysis on Goons) however I found something bigger:

    • 502778 pilots got on kill reports (as killer or victim), but only 7K was responsible for half of the destruction. Yes, that means that 98.6% of the pilots did the other half. More details here.
    • 30K pilots (6%) was over 50% ISK ratio, if we remove inflation. With inflation, everyone and his mother was around 97%. Remember, you needed one shot on a public titan to be ISK positive for the rest of your life.
    • The top pilot, Santo Trafficante did 897B damage, without inflation.
    • NPC corps were the second biggest killer "alliance". (first being Goonswarm)
    • Marmite was #4, CODE was #7
    • Top corporation: The Conference Elite
    • NC. had 46% ISK ratio, Nulli had 42%
    • Deadliest region: Catch. Second: The Forge.
    • Top ship loss: Tengu, followed by Ishtar, Archon and Moros.
    • 1/6 of the damage was done by a solo pilot. Another 1/6 by a gang of 2 or 3. Fleets over 30 members did less than 1/6 of the damage.
    • PvP is heavily EUTZ, 20T/hour was destroyed. USTZ (6T/hour) is barely higher than AUTZ (4T/hour)



    I hope these info reveals that most of the myths about EVE PvP (solo is dead, only big sov alliances matter, NC. is elite, YOU ARE OVER 50% ISK ratio) are wrong. Feel free to download the dataset yourself and find things I couldn't.

    I analyzed the top 30 alliances (table of contents in any of the linked posts), if you wish more to be analyzed, send 1B to Mordus Angels and an EVE-mail to me on the same pilot.



    ......................
    Scipio Artelius
    Weaponised Vegemite
    Flying Dangerous
    #17 - 2015-10-27 05:28:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Scipio Artelius
    Mephiztopheleze wrote:
    Gevlon Goblin wrote:

  • The top pilot, Santo Trafficante did 897B damage, without inflation.

    • How much of this was smartbombing pods in Tama?
    I'd guess ~100% of it.

    There's no need to guess. You can just go to zkillboard and look.
    Obadja
    Perkone
    Caldari State
    #18 - 2015-10-27 07:09:34 UTC
    Thank you for using your time to present us this data.

    The EVE mantras:

    # Don't fly what you cannot afford to loose ## Work in RL Play in Eve ## Don't build a relationship towards your ship, it won't last ## Press F12, do the Career Agent missions ##
    Ima Wreckyou
    The Conference Elite
    Safety.
    #19 - 2015-10-27 07:41:32 UTC
    Scipio Artelius wrote:
    Congrats to Paranoid Loyd for top 20.

    and to Ima Wreckyou for 74th (pretty close to last year if I remember correctly)

    Thanks. This character was born in december of 2013 and did not do anything until january 2014. So this should be the first year I am on that list Big smile. So much about all the tears about SP and 'catching up' Big smile

    Evil RatKid
    Ray P
    Unquestionable Prosperity
    Commonwealth Vanguard
    #20 - 2015-10-27 09:28:27 UTC
    Faction war corps?
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