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Thoughts on PLEX prices and what can possibly be done.

Author
Shade Alidiana
PROSPERO Corporation
#61 - 2015-10-18 11:56:14 UTC
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Rather than quote everyone I will use this strawman:

Convenient Strawman wrote:
But if people can not play for free then it is terrible and not good, and this is a thing that needs to change and be addressed.


Why?

Seriously, please explain why when there is a robust market for PLEX the number of players using it to keep their accounts going versus those buying them in game for other reasons actually matters?

In all these threads this never gets addressed.

One more point, it is CCP who has been steadily increasing the utility of plex over time by linking it to other ingame items. Perhaps CCP are far more interested in increasing the lifetime value of their customers and ghe ingame value of PLEX to drive more out of game purchases?


PLEX is not the only thing you can buy out of game. So I see nothing bad in limiting its uses. THAT would only change the balance between supply of game time and supply of cool stuff (skins?)
Aoife Fraoch
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#62 - 2015-10-18 11:56:18 UTC
ArmyOfMe wrote:

The problem here is that atm only a very little % of the plex ingame are actually on the market, so there is no way of knowing how many new plex CCP sells. So if the current plex speculators sit on large stockpiles of plex, they wont need to buy more plex from CCP anytime soon, and if that also causes a lack of player retention, then it does indeed hurt CCP as no new income happens.

So unless we can actually see that current plex sale numbers from CCP are as high as they have used to be, then there is no reason to claim it wont hurt CCP.


There is also no reason to claim that it is.

I am also fairly certain that the speculators are not buying the majority of new PLEX for real money themselves somehow...
Shade Alidiana
PROSPERO Corporation
#63 - 2015-10-18 12:01:15 UTC
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
ArmyOfMe wrote:

The problem here is that atm only a very little % of the plex ingame are actually on the market, so there is no way of knowing how many new plex CCP sells. So if the current plex speculators sit on large stockpiles of plex, they wont need to buy more plex from CCP anytime soon, and if that also causes a lack of player retention, then it does indeed hurt CCP as no new income happens.

So unless we can actually see that current plex sale numbers from CCP are as high as they have used to be, then there is no reason to claim it wont hurt CCP.


There is also no reason to claim that it is.

I am also fairly certain that the speculators are not buying the majority of new PLEX for real money themselves somehow...


When I wanted to inject isk, I've sold my PLEX to a buy order most of the time. So I think that's how speculators get it.
But... Really, don't you believe in some people going after the CCP's huge PLEX packs? I know at least some people can. Not the most pleasant subjects to speak to, but... they still exist and play games.
Aoife Fraoch
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#64 - 2015-10-18 12:08:26 UTC
Shade Alidiana wrote:
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Rather than quote everyone I will use this strawman:

Convenient Strawman wrote:
But if people can not play for free then it is terrible and not good, and this is a thing that needs to change and be addressed.


Why?

Seriously, please explain why when there is a robust market for PLEX the number of players using it to keep their accounts going versus those buying them in game for other reasons actually matters?

In all these threads this never gets addressed.

One more point, it is CCP who has been steadily increasing the utility of plex over time by linking it to other ingame items. Perhaps CCP are far more interested in increasing the lifetime value of their customers and ghe ingame value of PLEX to drive more out of game purchases?


PLEX is not the only thing you can buy out of game. So I see nothing bad in limiting its uses. THAT would only change the balance between supply of game time and supply of cool stuff (skins?)


This is a very very quick take on a dollar to AURUM exchange rate. It's based on a single PLEX price/$20 pack (yes I know there are external site sales, and pack pricing discounts):

20 4035 0.004956629
19.95 3500 0.0057

Looks like a PLEX on conversion nets CCP more per AURUM than buying AURUM. At least in this set of circumstances. Perhaps if they ended the PLEX to AURUM conversion pipeline the dollar price for AURUM might creep up?

Would be useful to see what kind of a take up there has been for directly buying AURUM versus sourcing it from within EVE via PLEX.

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#65 - 2015-10-18 12:14:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
ArmyOfMe wrote:
The problem here is that atm only a very little % of the plex ingame are actually on the market, so there is no way of knowing how many new plex CCP sells. So if the current plex speculators sit on large stockpiles of plex, they wont need to buy more plex from CCP anytime soon
There's evidentially enough being purchased in RL cash that there is currently $40,000 worth for public sale on the market, lets not forget that people also buy them for purposes other than gametime, including replenishing stockpiles that are released for cash injections, cash injections, for exchange to Aurum, for dual character training etc. So I don't think there is a RL lack of demand.

Quote:
and if that also causes a lack of player retention, then it does indeed hurt CCP as no new income happens.
Do you have any evidence of this beyond cries of "I can't afford to sub because I'm unwilling to put in the amount of effort required to purchase a PLEX with ingame cash and I'm too tight/poor to pay for it in RL"? PLEX is a luxury good, deal with it.

Quote:
So unless we can actually see that current plex sale numbers from CCP are as high as they have used to be, then there is no reason to claim it wont hurt CCP.
Yet you're willing to claim that it will harm CCP, without holding yourself to the same standards of evidence that you demand of people that disagree?

That sir, is called hypocrisy.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Amak Boma
Dragon Factory
xX SERENITY Xx
#66 - 2015-10-18 12:15:22 UTC
keep in mind if csm supports it and eventually ccp rething this and do something we cant except plex price to go down very much , we can only stop price growing up more. less players buy plex via money , less plex in markets so price spikes up. cutting plex from aurum will solve the problem partially but will give atleast effect.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#67 - 2015-10-18 12:15:37 UTC
Unfortunately, he's so correct it's almost a tautology. There aren't enough PLEX for everyone who wants one. Therefore either demand will decrease or supply with increase. A higher ISK price effects both of these changes. So much for Economics 101.

You're right that it's unhelpful to keep saying something so obviously true, but it's also equally important not to forget it. A PLEX isn't like steak; no matter how much I like a good steak, there is only so much of it I can eat, even if I get unlimited quantities of them for free. By contrast, I can and would expend my hypothetical free PLEX usage massively beyond what it would take to sustain my current two accounts, to the point where the utility of an extra login and training queue diminishes to below the effort required to create the account and use it.

At almost any price point above zero, therefore, demand for PLEX will increase with a drop in price, and vice versa.

So there's a bunch of ways to decrease the ISK price of a PLEX. But first it's important to decide why you want PLEX price to increase. What's the goal here? If it's just "So I can play EVE like I do now but spend less time making ISK to pay for my PLEX", that's fine but it rules out solutions like eg: CCP decreasing demand by limiting the number of accounts players can have.

In short: defining the actual result you want to achieve will make the solution much clearer.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Helia Tranquilis
Confused Bunnies Inc
#68 - 2015-10-18 12:16:28 UTC
If you can't afford to pay, you don't deserve to play.
Shade Alidiana
PROSPERO Corporation
#69 - 2015-10-18 12:16:53 UTC
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Shade Alidiana wrote:
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Rather than quote everyone I will use this strawman:

Convenient Strawman wrote:
But if people can not play for free then it is terrible and not good, and this is a thing that needs to change and be addressed.


Why?

Seriously, please explain why when there is a robust market for PLEX the number of players using it to keep their accounts going versus those buying them in game for other reasons actually matters?

In all these threads this never gets addressed.

One more point, it is CCP who has been steadily increasing the utility of plex over time by linking it to other ingame items. Perhaps CCP are far more interested in increasing the lifetime value of their customers and ghe ingame value of PLEX to drive more out of game purchases?


PLEX is not the only thing you can buy out of game. So I see nothing bad in limiting its uses. THAT would only change the balance between supply of game time and supply of cool stuff (skins?)


This is a very very quick take on a dollar to AURUM exchange rate. It's based on a single PLEX price/$20 pack (yes I know there are external site sales, and pack pricing discounts):

20 4035 0.004956629
19.95 3500 0.0057

Looks like a PLEX on conversion nets CCP more per AURUM than buying AURUM. At least in this set of circumstances. Perhaps if they ended the PLEX to AURUM conversion pipeline the dollar price for AURUM might creep up?

Would be useful to see what kind of a take up there has been for directly buying AURUM versus sourcing it from within EVE via PLEX.


That may be varying from place to place. I'm getting 4035 AUR on the secure.eveonline.com for the PLEX price, and people say PLEX gives only 3500 (I didn't ever care before yesterday).
But I have also suggested increasing AUR prices to match in the OP.
Top Guac
Doomheim
#70 - 2015-10-18 12:17:45 UTC
What can be done?

But PLEX and be happy that you can get so much ISK for it at the moment.

No problem at all.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#71 - 2015-10-18 12:22:30 UTC
My only worry regarding PLEX is the extent of speculation and hoarding.


PLEX without hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Jack for ISK.

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Jack pays his sub with PLEX and plays the game

Arrow net result: +2 people playing


PLEX with hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Nastyguy for ISK

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Nastyguy resells the PLEX at +50% ISK value

. Jack can't afford the higher price and unsubs

Arrow net result: only +1 people playing, plus Mr. Nastyguy laughing


I hope CCP has this under control in some way, a completely free and wild market on PLEX is not good for the game's health.

I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Shade Alidiana
PROSPERO Corporation
#72 - 2015-10-18 12:35:15 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
My only worry regarding PLEX is the extent of speculation and hoarding.


PLEX without hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Jack for ISK.

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Jack pays his sub with PLEX and plays the game

Arrow net result: +2 people playing


PLEX with hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Nastyguy for ISK

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Nastyguy resells the PLEX at +50% ISK value

. Jack can't afford the higher price and unsubs

Arrow net result: only +1 people playing, plus Mr. Nastyguy laughing


I hope CCP has this under control in some way, a completely free and wild market on PLEX is not good for the game's health.

I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.


Interesting point of view, even though I'm not sure I completely accept or maybe even understtand it. Thanks for constructive input anyway :)
Aoife Fraoch
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#73 - 2015-10-18 12:37:48 UTC
Shade Alidiana wrote:
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Shade Alidiana wrote:
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Rather than quote everyone I will use this strawman:

Convenient Strawman wrote:
But if people can not play for free then it is terrible and not good, and this is a thing that needs to change and be addressed.


Why?

Seriously, please explain why when there is a robust market for PLEX the number of players using it to keep their accounts going versus those buying them in game for other reasons actually matters?

In all these threads this never gets addressed.

One more point, it is CCP who has been steadily increasing the utility of plex over time by linking it to other ingame items. Perhaps CCP are far more interested in increasing the lifetime value of their customers and ghe ingame value of PLEX to drive more out of game purchases?


PLEX is not the only thing you can buy out of game. So I see nothing bad in limiting its uses. THAT would only change the balance between supply of game time and supply of cool stuff (skins?)


This is a very very quick take on a dollar to AURUM exchange rate. It's based on a single PLEX price/$20 pack (yes I know there are external site sales, and pack pricing discounts):

20 4035 0.004956629
19.95 3500 0.0057

Looks like a PLEX on conversion nets CCP more per AURUM than buying AURUM. At least in this set of circumstances. Perhaps if they ended the PLEX to AURUM conversion pipeline the dollar price for AURUM might creep up?

Would be useful to see what kind of a take up there has been for directly buying AURUM versus sourcing it from within EVE via PLEX.


That may be varying from place to place. I'm getting 4035 AUR on the secure.eveonline.com for the PLEX price, and people say PLEX gives only 3500 (I didn't ever care before yesterday).
But I have also suggested increasing AUR prices to match in the OP.


Your figures sound like mine. My formatting was a little horrible. It was Dollar Aurum Dollar/Aurum.
Calum Raholan
Sektor 17
#74 - 2015-10-18 12:43:50 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
My only worry regarding PLEX is the extent of speculation and hoarding.


PLEX without hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Jack for ISK.

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Jack pays his sub with PLEX and plays the game

Arrow net result: +2 people playing


PLEX with hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Nastyguy for ISK

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Nastyguy resells the PLEX at +50% ISK value

. Jack can't afford the higher price and unsubs

Arrow net result: only +1 people playing, plus Mr. Nastyguy laughing


I hope CCP has this under control in some way, a completely free and wild market on PLEX is not good for the game's health.

I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.


This actually wouldn't be that bad an idea... Like many when I have enough ISK to purchase I PLEX I do so as I always have alts than need training and if I don't then my ISK will for all respective purposes be worth less if I wait. Adding a time component to it means that it couldn't be used as essentially a gold bullion of EVE, however I think it would be far to complex to implement this system into the market.
Shade Alidiana
PROSPERO Corporation
#75 - 2015-10-18 12:47:47 UTC
Calum Raholan wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
My only worry regarding PLEX is the extent of speculation and hoarding.


PLEX without hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Jack for ISK.

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Jack pays his sub with PLEX and plays the game

Arrow net result: +2 people playing


PLEX with hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Nastyguy for ISK

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Nastyguy resells the PLEX at +50% ISK value

. Jack can't afford the higher price and unsubs

Arrow net result: only +1 people playing, plus Mr. Nastyguy laughing


I hope CCP has this under control in some way, a completely free and wild market on PLEX is not good for the game's health.

I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.


This actually wouldn't be that bad an idea... Like many when I have enough ISK to purchase I PLEX I do so as I always have alts than need training and if I don't then my ISK will for all respective purposes be worth less if I wait. Adding a time component to it means that it couldn't be used as essentially a gold bullion of EVE, however I think it would be far to complex to implement this system into the market.


I don't think it's any complex to implement, but... well, that would cut one of the things I and others use. I mean storing PLEX in hangar when we temporarily leave game, to surely be able to return and play as we would normally. But that doesn't seem like a big issue to me, at all. If this helps the issue.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#76 - 2015-10-18 12:59:24 UTC
Shade Alidiana wrote:
Calum Raholan wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.


This actually wouldn't be that bad an idea... Like many when I have enough ISK to purchase I PLEX I do so as I always have alts than need training and if I don't then my ISK will for all respective purposes be worth less if I wait. Adding a time component to it means that it couldn't be used as essentially a gold bullion of EVE, however I think it would be far to complex to implement this system into the market.


I don't think it's any complex to implement, but... well, that would cut one of the things I and others use. I mean storing PLEX in hangar when we temporarily leave game, to surely be able to return and play as we would normally. But that doesn't seem like a big issue to me, at all. If this helps the issue.
Yeah, just an idea, don't know if it makes sense or not. CCP have the numbers and - I hope - the knowledge to decide.

We would basically have 6-7 versions of PLEX sold in the market at any given time. For example, today in Jita we'd have:

. PLEX Oct15
. PLEX Nov15
. PLEX Dec15
. PLEX Jan16
. PLEX Feb16
. PLEX Mar16
. PLEX Apr16

PLEX Oct15, usable onyl until the end of this month, would naturally be sold at a discount compared to the others. PLEX Apr16 would maybe be the most expensive, as it offers traders a wider window to exchange it.

Maybe traders would run 'fire sales' towards the end of each month, with bargain opportunities.

Could be fun, could work, don't know P

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Pohbis
Neo T.E.C.H.
#77 - 2015-10-18 13:02:33 UTC
Go take a graph of the PLEX price – then overlay the USD on top of that.

There's your explanation. Real world economics affect PLEX prices more than anything else.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#78 - 2015-10-18 13:03:54 UTC
Pohbis wrote:
Go take a graph of the PLEX price – then overlay the USD on top of that.

There's your explanation. Real world economics affect PLEX prices more than anything else.
Err... USD compared to what? EUR? RUB? JPY?

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Shade Alidiana
PROSPERO Corporation
#79 - 2015-10-18 13:05:57 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Shade Alidiana wrote:
Calum Raholan wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.


This actually wouldn't be that bad an idea... Like many when I have enough ISK to purchase I PLEX I do so as I always have alts than need training and if I don't then my ISK will for all respective purposes be worth less if I wait. Adding a time component to it means that it couldn't be used as essentially a gold bullion of EVE, however I think it would be far to complex to implement this system into the market.


I don't think it's any complex to implement, but... well, that would cut one of the things I and others use. I mean storing PLEX in hangar when we temporarily leave game, to surely be able to return and play as we would normally. But that doesn't seem like a big issue to me, at all. If this helps the issue.
Yeah, just an idea, don't know if it makes sense or not. CCP have the numbers and - I hope - the knowledge to decide.

We would basically have 6-7 versions of PLEX sold in the market at any given time. For example, today in Jita we'd have:

. PLEX Oct15
. PLEX Nov15
. PLEX Dec15
. PLEX Jan16
. PLEX Feb16
. PLEX Mar16
. PLEX Apr16

PLEX Oct15, usable onyl until the end of this month, would naturally be sold at a discount compared to the others. PLEX Apr16 would maybe be the most expensive, as it offers traders a wider window to exchange it.

Maybe traders would run 'fire sales' towards the end of each month, with bargain opportunities.

Could be fun, could work, don't know P


Yea sounds fun and I like it. And is already made (in a way) with snowballs so wouldn't be completely new.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#80 - 2015-10-18 13:18:56 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
My only worry regarding PLEX is the extent of speculation and hoarding.


PLEX without hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Jack for ISK.

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Jack pays his sub with PLEX and plays the game

Arrow net result: +2 people playing


PLEX with hoarding/speculation:

. John buys PLEX with cash, trades it with Nastyguy for ISK

. John buys some ships and plays the game

. Nastyguy resells the PLEX at +50% ISK value

. Jack can't afford the higher price and unsubs

Arrow net result: only +1 people playing, plus Mr. Nastyguy laughing


I hope CCP has this under control in some way, a completely free and wild market on PLEX is not good for the game's health.

I would consider introducing a 6-month expiry on PLEX to curtail hoarding.



The traditional answer to this analysis is that PLEX speculators introduce liquidity to the PLEX market. But it's far from apparent to me that there's any lack of liquidity.

I think the answer may lie in a more radical solution: get rid of PLEX altogether.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016