EVE General Discussion

Obviously you aren't big on logic or intelligence, so let me dumb this down for you:

You paid. What you spent is time, arguably the most valuable currency in human society.

You are now complaining because the time cost is more than you are willing to spend.

Get it?

Something that has gone largely unsaid here is that the people whom complain about plex prices tend to be the people who are very poor at making isk. They tend to 'grind' isk inefficiently, which was fine when plex is cheap, but sucks now that it's less cheap.

Rather than either scale back their operation (ie drop alt accounts), pay with cash (50 cents USD per day per account) or actually learn how to PVE in ways that earn isk quickly, they complain with the aim of getting CCP to intervene on their behalf.

In other words, the complainers are just lazy, and thus easily ignored.

I used to have 2 accounts and started as annual subscription for both. After a couple of years I was making enough isk via casual mission running that I switched 1 account to be payed via plex. This was when plex was under 500 million. When it went above that I switched back to subscription.

Then real life intervened and I stopped playing for the past 2 and a half years. Just re-subbed and the first thing I did was checked the plex price in game. Wow it was at 1.2 billion, so for me its back to subscription, will re-sub the 2nd account one I get used to the all the new changes.

I am not from a developed country, but I can still afford to pay subscription. This may not be true for some guys. For them if they truly want play this game without subscription then at least do some research and find the most efficient way to make isk to get your plex. A level 4 mission runner can still make 50 to 100 million / hour within the confines of high security, which is still more than enough to get your plex to play the game without real money. Of course you spend extra time, but you will have to make that trade off.

I don't think that CCP should intervene but it would be really interesting if CCP released how many accounts are actively plexed. If the number is too low that can lead to quick collapse of current plex market.

Buy all the PLEX for isk that you can. RIGHT NOW.
Liquidate all assets/stockpiles you dont plan to use within the next 6-12 months, and put that towards PLEX purchase.

PLEX is currently appreciating at almost 100mil a week.
Probably be 2 bil by Christmas.

If you are planning to buy PLEX with RML for conversion for isk, either put your money aside and buy the PLEX closer to next year, or stockpile whatever PLEX you do buy now and watch its value grow.

If you have PLEX already, DO NOT SELL.
Hold onto it. You will almost certainly make more the longer you hold off.

Supporting reasons:
PLEX sale was already had recently. There wont be another one for awhile.
Market has been drained of supply for EVE-Vegas.
Player activity drop has not resulted in price decrease, quite the opposite.
Player activity drop has somewhat stabilised, and again, with no decrease in price, quite the opposite.
PLEX for Good Charity is unlikely due to extremely complex and controversial international political climate.

Counterindicators:
CCP reduces PLEX price to nearer sub. Unlikely till atleast 1st quarter 2016, and would be well telegraphed in advance.
Hoarders start dumping, extremely unlikely. It is counter to their interest, as it depreciates their stockpiles.
Furthermore it would take several weeks for dumping to have a noticeable decrees in PLEX appreciation, as other hoarders continue to buy them off the market, cheap, to grow their own stockpile and retain/apprecoate its value.

Liquidate everything you dont need, and buy all the PLEX you can. Immediately.

Really? You really think that the bubble keeps on growing and never bursts?
The PLEX market is just like every other - the price just needs to find its equilibrium point based on how many are on the market and how much people are prepared to pay for them.

Ruskarn and Frostys:

I edited to include some nominal facts and market change events which support the position.

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Supporting reasons:
PLEX sale was already had recently. There wont be another one for awhile.
Market has been drained of supply for EVE-Vegas.
Player activity drop has not resulted in price decrease, quite the opposite.
Player activity drop has somewhat stabilised, and again, with no decrease in price, quite the opposite.
PLEX for Good Charity is unlikely due to extremely complex and controversial international political climate.

Counterindicators:
CCP reduces PLEX price to nearer sub. Unlikely till atleast 1st quarter 2016, and would be well telegraphed in advance.
Hoarders start dumping, extremely unlikely. It is counter to their interest, as it depreciates their stockpiles.
Furthermore it would take several weeks for dumping to have a noticeable decrees in PLEX appreciation, as other hoarders continue to buy them off the market, cheap, to grow their own stockpile and retain/apprecoate its value.

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As to the "bubble", I dont believe it will burst within the next 6months, atleast.
Furthermore, we dont know that it is a bubble. Im might simply be a harmonisation due to changes.
We dont know where the breaking point for how much isk, how many players are prepared to pay.
Its never been tested and pushed this hard before.

The threshold will take some time to become apparent, as players who are PLEX dependant liquidate more and more assets (and discontinue accounts) inorder to stay in the game for 1 more month. Once all their assets (and other accounts) are gone, and they can no longer reasonably make up the difference, they will either swap to sub (unlikely for most), or drop out. Thisnwill happen somewhat incrementally, due to people having different dates of account expiration, and should be readily apparent as a plateau in PLEX price as measured against and concurrent with a second stabilisation of active accounts after a period of decline in active accounts.

It is however clear atm, that this breaking point/plateau has not yet been reached.

So BUY NOW. The more of it is bought, the higher its value will increase.
With each PLEX you take off the market, you increase the value of those you already have, including the one you just now bought.

CCP action:

CCP action is largely the only one to worry about, and that is what you must speculate against, for however likely you foresee that as. As I outlined in my edit, most of CCPs devices for PLEX introduction and conversion have already been introduced and have passed. Two elements remain.
1) That CCP reduces PLEX price for RLM closer to sub systemically. (Unlikely, as this would be resisted vociferously by various player communities and business interests).
2) CCP starts dumping confiscated PLEX, which tbh will just be bought up by existing PLEX speculators, cheaply, hungrily, inorder to appreciate the value of their existing stock. The quantity of dump required would be huge, especially recognising the heuristic fact, that dedicated PLEX traders/hoarders are very activr and observant in taking cheap PLEX off the market. Its what they do. They will buy that cheap CCP PLEX up like a kid in a candy store.

As a result, consumer demand does not become saturated by supply, as that supply is largely bought up and withheld by the hoarders (for purpose of both increasing the quantity of their stock, as well as increasing its quality in isk), against the interest of players who buy PLEX to EAT/DESTROY it, thereby removing it permanently from the market.

Player action:

In terms of player related PLEX behavior, that PLEX price has increased, rather than decreased due to reduced activity (which it rationally should have) shows that there are very strong hoarder elements operating in the market which were able to offset the loss of hundreds/thousands of PLEX accounts, as a huge drop in demand.

In terms of speculation against that, you must ask yourself do you believe people will strongly start subbing, or buying and introducing PLEX to the market. Personally, I find both unlikely and incidental. Subbing players will still sub, RLM PLEX buyers are shown to not react much, as their behavior is primarily governed by their disposable income, rather than the isk price of PLEX.

If hoarders start dumping, it will be a slow stalling of PLEX rise, as other speculators buy the PLEX to incresse their stock and its value. The plateau should be quite obvious and take atleast a few weeks before turning into a decline.

The thing some people are not understanding, is that the nature and form of demand on PLEX is fundamentally different between traders and consumers of this commodity. Trader demand is for profit. Consumer demand is, well, for consumption. The trader stockpiles his PLEX, the consumer EATS it.. The trader retains the PLEX in his stock, the consumer destroys it. Understanding this fundamental difference is central to understanding what is happening atm with PLEX.

Before someone interjects (irrelevantly) that CCP is paid anyways (which is true), this does not change the fundamental difference in the nature of supply and demand from the perspective of PLEX traders and consumers ingame. Their use and function for this commodity is different to each others.

Conclusion:

BUY PLEX NOW.
Liquidate everything you dont need or wont use, and immediately buy up as much PLEX as you can.
Either as an investment for later resale, or so you can PLEX yourself for as long as possible into the future.
Do not hesitate. Do so IMMEDIATELY.

If you have PLEX, DO NOT SELL. Hold onto it till the price plateaus and stays stable.
If you are planning to buy PLEX with RLM, hold off till another PLEX sale, or as above, the price plateaus and stabilises.

Feeding 2 plex a day to the market in Jita when prices are over 2bil will make me feel like Immortan Joe. Long may the market favour those who are already rich.

I'm sure CCP is losing all kinds of sleep over freeloaders threatening to quit. It's like threatening to stop pirating cable if the cable company doesn't lower their prices.

WTF do you whiners honestly expect CCP to do? They're not going to put a hard cap on what people can charge. If they lowered the IRL price of PLEX, there is no guarantee people buying PLEX from CCP would sell them any cheaper. If PLEX are selling reasonably fast for 1.2B, there's no reason for sellers to lower the price.

Well of course the structural requirements to support an astrometric plex rise are clearly obvious and unquestionable.

They aren't?
Nothing has changed to force a 30% price rise in a few days?
Could it possibly be someone is talking a bubble up?

Plex and multiple pilot certificates, are a structural part of the Eve economy, one would need to be delusional to think CCP would allow themselves to come secondary to the profits of the speculators.

Ignorant

Even if you Plex your account you are still paying CCP for your game time. All Plex came from CCP, therefore all Plex is a monthy sub paid to them whether some noob paid it for you or you go on a Monthly plan.


In fact, CCP gets MORE cash from Plexers than they do monthly subs.

So stop being so ignorant. No one is "Pirating" plex from CCP.