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Drifter Discussion: Ways Toward Answers
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Haria Haritimado
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#1 - 2015-09-14 12:34:26 UTC
In no way is it my intention to mimic or even caricature the very necessary call for discussion by fellow capsuleer Feruccio Surge. Instead, his latest attempt to revive the Drifter discussion once more compelled me to reflect on the principles of Drifter research. A rather discouraging contemplation, even though I have been honored to wittness some leading scientists working on the topic in the past.

What can we still contribute in order to approach Drifters from a scientific perspective? What is valid, what is invalid? What is helpful, what is misleading? What methods are useful, which are not? Efforts should adhere to scientific standards, so I thought to myself I would like to try to elaborate possible approaches in principle. I identified five approaches, which I would like to elaborate and explain a bit. And I identified what I view as a serious danger to any effort in Drifter research.

The Way of Deductive Conclusions

The most rational and pure way to come to new insighty. Not feasible in our case, I fear. Deduction has the highest certainty of all scientific conclusions, but does not contribute new content or insights. We are missing a reliable framework of valid knowledge in order to deduce extensive facts about drifters. Even laws of physics and nature are in question due to their unknown technological capabilities. Proper deductions regarding Drifters are either naive and simple (Drifters are subject to natural laws) or they assume unproven facts and are thereby not proper at all (Drifters use jump-clone technology, because they are capsuleers). Some small deductions could be made now and then, regarding weapon systems (and the proper defensive counter fittings), but all in all, we are still missing fundamental revelations in order to dissect the Drifter's composure and program by proper and valid deduction.

The Way of Inductive Conclusions

Most efforts regarding research on drifters try to extrapolate reliable general knowledge from limited observations. That's quiet understandable. An inductive conclusion may vastly expanse knowledge and content of scientific insight. But it is highly uncertain. To assume a general law or highly probable behavior or attribute from a single or rare observation is not acceptable. In order to accept an inductive conclusion as valid (until it is contradicted), the fullfillment of high standards is required. Three elemental aspects are 1. to abstain from any prejudices and unjustified ideas about the subject; 2. the minute and detailed record of observation, timing, and succession of events; 3. the subsequent (deductive) testing of the generalized conclusion in as many ways as possible. In regard to Drifters, this method suffers from the lack of coordinated research. If we would have succeeded in organizing ourselves properly, we propably would have a reliable stock of recorded observations in order to draw an inductive conclusion. Some projects, most notably Arek'Jaalan, made steps in this direction. But in the end, the presence of Drifters throughout New Eden is left unobserved and unrecorded at a great expanse. This is true for their features and capabilities, as well as for their migratory behavior and rhythms.

The Way of Hypothetical Explanations

While a deductive and inductive conclusion tries to determine qualities and traits of an object, e.g. Drifters, there is a third and not so well known way to expand knowledge. It is used quiet often by intuition and in everyday life. For example, the respectable and well known autopsy revealed that Drifters share certain traits with capsuleer body modifications. Such body modifications imply the possibility for jump clone behavior and transfer of consciousness. The hypothetical conclusion would be, that drifters have a consciousness. In difference to a deductive conclusion, the result is not an actual conclusion, but a supposed prerequisite (Drifters have a consciousness). Quiet some efforts have been made to formulate such hypotheses and I think this is a very helpful and meaningful way to approach the challenge. Nevertheless, it must be clearly stated, that those conclusions are uncertain and highly risky by definition. They are very useful to formulate meaningful theories and dictate further steps of research, but they are not valid on their own. At least, they require proper observation and references to solid theories. This makes informed, hypothetical conclusions better than ad hoc theories, conspiracy theories, and wild fantasy.

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Haria Haritimado
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#2 - 2015-09-14 12:34:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Haria Haritimado
The Way of the Experiment

Besides hypothetical conclusions, I deem experiments the most fruitful ways to decipher the drifter threat at this point and so far. Experiments are useful to improve all ways of research. They may disprove deductive assumptions, they may support inductive conclusions and they may define the extent and strength of hypothetical conclusions. The reason why I think experiments are superior to mere observation in regard to the drifter threat is the possibility to control conditions and to explore the extremes. Experiments allow us to engage drifters in a certain environment (e.g. close to a structre or wormhole) and under extreme and otherwise not observable circumstances (e.g. engaged in combat, followed en route, scanned, approached, removed). Pilots like Rob Kaichin and Darkblad come to my mind, who very early undertook great efforts to experiment with drifters, mostly focused on combat capabilities. I think it can be said that most of the reliable knowledge we have about Drifter combat abilities has been collected and verified by experiments.

The Way of the Collector and the Problem of Intersubjectivity

Besides the valid scientific methods above, there's a great need for data collection. And even if a pilot is not able to stage experiments or to support inductive conclusions with necessary data and observations, every small peace of descriptive data can be of great value. This has been done by Stig Elendil and myself in regard to the Drifter Hive System Anomalies. But many others contributed with combat logs, video footage, stills, or after action reports. In order to make use of such data, it has to be accessible for other researchers. It is vital to document events and observations. Missions led by Arek'Jaalan, IKAME and others, always took special care of documentation. But even then, doubts remain within our community. So the best option is to document ways to reproduce observations reliably by everyone. This is not an easy demand, by no means. I'm looking forward to the results of Project Trireme. This is a very significant case where very important data might be found. But how can be assured that the results are accessible, replicable, unchanged by uncontrolled influences, and sufficent in order to support an inductive conclusion? Another quality aspect of data gathering is to refrain from any unjustified and hasty conclusions. Single observations and events are worth reporting. But they prove nothing of scientific relevance. Unless profound reasoning suggests a conclusion, reticence is a sign of integrity.

On the Problem of Behavior, Action, and Consciousness

With great emphasis I would like to point out, that there is no reliable evidence that Drifters are acting at all. What we wittness is a certain behavior. It could be the result of a sentient being, a consciousness like our own, an artificial intelligence, or even a nice piece of software routine. Behavior is mere reaction to a stimulus. Action, on the other hand, implies a motive, a goal, a frame of value reference and the conscious perception of the world as a meaningful place. I am not saying that I believe there is no meaning in the Drifter's behavior. But I strongly believe that there is a great risk to unquestioningly accept the Drifters as having a consciousness like our own. They appear to be capsuleers, they appear to be a genetic derivate of mankind, they appear to have a hidden agenda. But every attempt to interpret their behavior as inspired by a consciousness like our own is highly dangerous. They may be automaton, but they may also be more transhuman than we capsuleers are. And this implies that the Drifters and we might not even be sharing the same common world at all. With some justification it can be said, that the Drifters are tempting us into speculation. And because they appear as hollow as a puppet, they offer plenty of room for our fears and hopes to fill. I suggest that we continue to study the drifters with greatest calmness and dispassion. They are to us, what wandering stars have been to archaic societies in the past. The Drifters might be the face of a foul mind, a transhuman state of consciousness, or even a new natural law. But whatever conclusions we draw, whatever hypothesis and theories we phrase, or experiments we make, we should not put more into the Drifters as what they actually show by themselves. We should stay true to the actual experience. And it is basically due to the lack of any attempt for direct communication that I take this rather radical stance. Any assumption or conclusion which implies that the Drifters have a consciousness comparable to our own, is a highly risky and propably self-deceiving way to engage the issue. I could not put it in better words like Sinjin Mokk recently did.

At this point I would like to come to an end with the appeal to carry on. My humble attempt to offer some scientific reference is just that: a framework of reference. Researchers, combat pilots, and explorers have to continue to decipher the mystery. If some of you are not sure about how to contribute in a meaningful way or if your findings are helpful, feel free to contact dedicated entities like Arek'Jaalan, Signal Cartel, Chrysos Aigis, Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries.

Sincerely yours,

Haria Haritimado
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.

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