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Plex hits 1b ISK in Jita

First post
Author
Karl Jerr
Herzack Unit
#161 - 2015-09-10 22:35:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Karl Jerr
Plexing my accounts isn't a concern since I use stock's dividends to buy subs for some months now.
And I don't think I'm alone in this case.

Btw many people in my country pay like $60/$80 / month for crappy basic cable TV or $120 for "complete" cable TV.

CAD$40 for 2 accounts in a game like this one is cheap beside it.
Zihao
Doomheim
#162 - 2015-09-10 22:36:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Zihao
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
PLEX is an excellent system, but integrally it carries its own dependencies and systemic downfall, particularly in the sense that the higher its isk cost rises, the less of it people will buy IRL, invariably (note) leading to a CCP fiscal decision on sub costs, which will throw PLEX and the entire economy into all kinds of crazy.


Explain your logic.

Each PLEX represents game time, vanity items, or a store of value based on one of the previous. Taking PLEX as a variable independent of subscribers doesn't work since, all else being equivalent, everyone owes the same cash amount to CCP (give or take depend on how much your government adds on with VAT or other duties). PLEX is nothing more than a mechanism to legally pass that subscription fee or cash price of vanity items on to someone else who is willing to pay it in exchange for isk.

It truly does not matter if you reach a point where PLEX commands so much isk that few need to be sold for any average purpose, because under those conditions you have more players on the fence about selling PLEX who begin to do so as a waning supply will just make it even more lucrative on a per-individual basis. So up to the point where 1 PLEX commands such an absurd amount of isk that hardly anyone could do something with it (at which point you get inflationary collapse due to a devalued isk, not an over-valued PLEX), there is a stable market price.

So unless you are implying that there are no more players who will begin to sell PLEX at any price point hence, your scenario is unrealistic.
Salvos Rhoska
#163 - 2015-09-10 23:10:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Zihao wrote:
So unless you are implying that there are no more players who will begin to sell PLEX at any price point hence, your scenario is unrealistic.

I never imply anything. I say what I mean, and mean what I say.

You seem to have had a knee-jerk reaction, and assumed I have said, by false implication, something I have not.
Therafter came the normal litany of what PLEX is, and which I am aware of, and does not need repeating.

My point, as was that of many other posters here, is that as PLEX prices rise, people will buy less of it with real money, because they only buy as much as their isk needs are. PLEX is inherently unequitable in terms of conversion to the other options it applies to, such as clothing, skins, subbing, or multitraining, which all are cheaper to buy directly with real money, even though some of them are also availbale ingame as sold by other players for isk.

If you can find clothing/skins/aurum tokens for cheaper than the PLEX/Aurum conversion cost of aquiring them , buy them, immediately.

The flaw in your approach, is not realizing that (rational) people buy PLEX for one reason, and one reason alone:
- to sell ingame for isk.

As to the complex cascade of PLEXs rising prices( and a rational decrease of introduced PLEXs into the system as a result) effect on isk value and commodities, that is very slow and creeping but carries a great deal of momentum, as PLEX constitutes a gold standard. That also results in increase of price of commodities, as other people fight to raise funds sufficient to buy PLEX against increasing demand vs reduced supply. Sure, some will sell cheaper to make it, but the market forces, as grounded in the PLEX gold standard, which is essential to their gameplay in a way no other commodity is, drives prices upwards nonetheless.

PLEX is necessary for their existance, as oxygen is for ours IRL. If there is less oxygen around, and its price increases, people will invariably in aggregate raise their commodities prices to try and earn enough with commensurate efforts to attain that, against those fewer who choose to sell cheap (but then have to grind harder to make up the deficit).

That is what I meant, in that though PLEX is an ingenious system in many ways, it reciprocally also carries the elements of its own systemic downfall.

TLDR: PLEX price changes directly correlate (including all elements for and against, and through various considered means) to the health of the player population.
A rise in prices is bad, a decrease is good.
Economically, since PLEX is sourced only from outside the game, it carries elements similar to currency exchange markets, in the sense that only people with confidence in the game (or national economy in analog), purchase its currency and invest in it. When they dont, it causes systemic devaluation of the internal currency of that economy, meaning commodities there cost more nominally, but not in intrinsic value. Interestingly, by example, if we could trade with the Chinese server, players could mitigate this. But we cant. Tranquility is only one universal server, one nation, competing virtually and internally against external fixed IRL PLEX purchase rates.

As magnificent as EVEs economy is, and as ingenious as the PLEX system is, and as resilient as both are put together, it has its Achilles Heel. Thats is when people no longer introduce PLEX into the system in sufficient amounts.
Zihao
Doomheim
#164 - 2015-09-11 00:44:35 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

My point, as was that of many other posters here, is that as PLEX prices rise, people will buy less of it with real money, because they only buy as much as their isk needs are.


And herein lies your fundamental mistake. There is no fixed set of players who buy, sell, and abstain from either, but rather a player chooses to participate in either or neither activity based on the price. 10 players selling 1 PLEX is equivalent to 1 player selling 10.
Salvos Rhoska
#165 - 2015-09-11 01:12:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Zihao wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

My point, as was that of many other posters here, is that as PLEX prices rise, people will buy less of it with real money, because they only buy as much as their isk needs are.


And herein lies your fundamental mistake. There is no fixed set of players who buy, sell, and abstain from either, but rather a player chooses to participate in either or neither activity based on the price. 10 players selling 1 PLEX is equivalent to 1 player selling 10.

Wat.

I agree there is no "fixed" set of players who buy PLEX IRL.
Who they are is irrelevant. Only the aggregate of what comes onto the ingame market, matters.

If they hold onto the PLEX they bought IRL, that too is irrelevant, because it has no influence on the market.

10 players selling 1 PLEX (which is impossible, idiotic, and ridiculous to state, because only 1 player can sell a PLEX) is not equivalent to 1 player selling 10 PLEX.

The former results in 1 PLEX introduction, the latter in 10.

In what kind of ******** logic does 1 PLEX equal 10 PLEX?

Why am I even answering to this.

Do you even understand WHERE PLEX comes from?
Tosawa Komarui
State War Academy
Caldari State
#166 - 2015-09-11 01:33:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Tosawa Komarui
Vincent Athena wrote:
In economic theory there is something called Giffen good (good, as in "goods and services"). These are goods which have a reversed supply-demand curve. That is, an increase in price results in a decrease in supply. It is possible that the PLEX is a Giffen good. To see how this could be, first let me recast what I mean by "the price of the PLEX".

Consider how much Real Money I need to buy, say, 10 billion ISK via PLEX. As the ISK value of the PLEX increases, the price, in Real Money, of 10 billion ISK decreases. Normally one would expect this to increase the demand for PLEX. As the Real Money cost of 10 billion ISK drops, more players will opt to make the purchase. But if the PLEX is a Giffen good, then the reverse happens. The mechanism may be:

The number of people who would want a supercap is limited by the number of characters who have skills to fly them, not the super's price. Dropping the price of supers will have only a small effect on their demand. (I'm assuming a player does not want spare supers sitting about, they want most every one logged off in space with a pilot sitting in it.)

A player with little ISK can buy a super by using Real Money to buy PLEX, selling the PLEX for ISK and buying the super. As the ISK value of a PLEX increases, the number of PLEX the player need buy goes down. Increased ISK price leads to a reduced supply of PLEX. (Or, to put it another way, the decreasing price of ISK leads to decreasing demand for PLEX). This makes the PLEX a Giffen good.

A numerical example:

Say the ISK price of the PLEX increases by 10%. Any player deciding to make a big purchase now needs to buy 10% fewer PLEX. Lets say as a result of the better price, 5% more players decide to make such a purchase. Yes, the total players buying PLEX increases, and the total ISK bought increases, but as each now buys fewer PLEX, the total supply of PLEX goes down. Again, we have a Giffen good.

What this means for CCP: The increasing ISK value of the PLEX would reduce revenue, and hence is not in CCP’s best interest.



its also worth noting that when blizzard "borrowed" this idea with their token system they took the price of the tokens out of the players hands completely, there is no auction system they control the price and the price is looooow

im not saying that system would work for eve, but its interesting that they managed to avoid this problem
Zihao
Doomheim
#167 - 2015-09-11 02:00:22 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

10 players selling 1 PLEX (which is impossible, idiotic, and ridiculous to state, because only 1 player can sell a PLEX) is not equivalent to 1 player selling 10 PLEX.

The former results in 1 PLEX introduction, the latter in 10.


10x1 = 10
1x10 = 10

Hope that helps.
Desslok VonReich
Acadia Investment Group
#168 - 2015-09-11 02:26:11 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
[quote=Zihao][quote=Salvos Rhoska]
10 players selling 1 PLEX (which is impossible, idiotic, and ridiculous to state, because only 1 player can sell a PLEX) is not equivalent to 1 player selling 10 PLEX.

The former results in 1 PLEX introduction, the latter in 10.

In what kind of ******** logic does 1 PLEX equal 10 PLEX?

Why am I even answering to this.

Do you even understand WHERE PLEX comes from?


Er. How did you possibly read that and misunderstand that so badly?


As the ISK value of PLEX rises, I am more and more likely to purchase a PLEX for resale. I assume I am not alone in that.


My pet theory is that folks have a lot less disposable income these days to spend on PLEX, or anything really. At the same time, demand is up for the same reason as fewer people can afford the monthly sub.
Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#169 - 2015-09-11 03:00:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Hasikan Miallok
Desslok VonReich wrote:



As the ISK value of PLEX rises, I am more and more likely to purchase a PLEX for resale. I assume I am not alone in that.




Whilst not alone you are probably unusual.

People are generally after ISK for a specific purpose and will cash in just enough ISK to fill that purpose. If your fleet needs to replace a Rorqual you cash in enough PLEX to get the 2 BILL ISK for a Rorqual. You do not suddenly buy 4 of the things or randomly pick up some POS parts just in case.

Someone considering a future purchase (like for example a ratting carrier) may be prompted to act earlier.

However very few people are going to randomly cash in PLEX and go shopping for billion ISK officer mods or some such just because they can get more ISK. I suspect the only people likely to do this are the occasional new player strapped for ISK wanting to try out shiney stuff.
Salvos Rhoska
#170 - 2015-09-11 03:02:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Desslok VonReich wrote:

As the ISK value of PLEX rises, I am more and more likely to purchase a PLEX for resale. I assume I am not alone in that.

Your ingame purchase of PLEX for resale is immaterial to the prevalence of PLEX.

The point of issue, is the quantity of introduction of PLEX into EVE.

You are merely reselling that which was already paid for.

EVE is a microcosm, a micronation, in which the means of existance for many players/accounts in it, is introduced from OUTSIDE its economy, into it.

Its like living in an aquarium. Somebody BUYS the food some fish need to live from OUTSIDE with real money, and drops it into the tank, for dependant fish to buy with fishmoney, so as to eat it and live another month. When that supply dwindles, costs go up, and dependant fish start dying from starvation.

Furthermore, as other have also pointed out, thr higher the isk value of PLEX, the less RLM PLEX purchases will occur (because buyers rationally only buy as much as they need), and the less PLEX will be introduced to the system. PLEX has gone up 20-25% in the last year, other commodities have (thankfully) not.

This is the central concept I have tried to elaborate on in my previous posts.

PLEX, and how it is introduced to the game, is ingenius and unconventional.
It takesmsome adjusting and thinking to understand how that happens.
Take a few minutes for yourself to ponder upon it, and understand it.

Zihao wrote:


10x1 = 10
1x10 = 10

Hope that helps.


Doesnt help at all.

10 players cannot buy 1 PLEX.
1 player buys 1 PLEX.
The remaining 9 did NOT buy a PLEX.

Your math is absolutely ********.
Daniela Doran
Doomheim
#171 - 2015-09-11 03:52:34 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:



I really want EVE to catch its second wind, and take off like the champ it is and deserves to be, but I cant help feeling the opportunity for that was lost way back when the best revenues were sidelined into other projects.

Its an ironic, analogous and poetic justice that any EVE player can appreciate;
they invested time/money/skill into the wrong things. SOL. Didnt do your homework. Bad bet.




Can you please explain what you mean by this?


Salvos Rhoska
#172 - 2015-09-11 04:00:47 UTC
Daniela Doran wrote:
Can you please explain what you mean by this?

Which part, exactly?
La Rynx
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#173 - 2015-09-11 05:14:26 UTC  |  Edited by: La Rynx
so many ppl still don't get it.
plex value is not increasing!
isk value is decreasing!

plex as tool for ppl with real money, to sell game time in the game market.

which ppl could have big problems?
ppl who do not pay real money, ppl who grind isk to play for free.
those ppl have to play more to play for free...
sounds fair for the ppl who really buy plex from ccp with real money.

oooh eve is dying cause less freeloaders.Ugh

because freeloaders create content and do not grind isk via mining or ratting, or other pve...
/sarcasm off

Atomic Virulent : "You can't spell DOUCHE. without CODE."

Hasikan Miallok
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#174 - 2015-09-11 06:30:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Hasikan Miallok
La Rynx wrote:


which ppl could have big problems?
ppl who do not pay real money, ppl who grind isk to play for free.
those ppl have to play more to play for free...
sounds fair for the ppl who really buy plex from ccp with real money.

oooh eve is dying cause less freeloaders.Ugh

because freeloaders create content and do not grind isk via mining or ratting, or other pve...
/sarcasm off



You miss the point.

Forget all about "freeholding carebears versus awesome PvPers that pay real money to play". What happens to the PLEX once those PLEX are sold in the game is irrelevant.

What is important is that every time buying ISK gets cheaper, people will need less real dollars to fund their PvP. In other words the more expensive a PLEX becomes the less income CCP are getting to pay for the game.
Anize Oramara
WarpTooZero
#175 - 2015-09-11 09:29:17 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Desslok VonReich wrote:

As the ISK value of PLEX rises, I am more and more likely to purchase a PLEX for resale. I assume I am not alone in that.

Your ingame purchase of PLEX for resale is immaterial to the prevalence of PLEX.

The point of issue, is the quantity of introduction of PLEX into EVE.

You are merely reselling that which was already paid for.

EVE is a microcosm, a micronation, in which the means of existance for many players/accounts in it, is introduced from OUTSIDE its economy, into it.

Its like living in an aquarium. Somebody BUYS the food some fish need to live from OUTSIDE with real money, and drops it into the tank, for dependant fish to buy with fishmoney, so as to eat it and live another month. When that supply dwindles, costs go up, and dependant fish start dying from starvation.

Furthermore, as other have also pointed out, thr higher the isk value of PLEX, the less RLM PLEX purchases will occur (because buyers rationally only buy as much as they need), and the less PLEX will be introduced to the system. PLEX has gone up 20-25% in the last year, other commodities have (thankfully) not.

This is the central concept I have tried to elaborate on in my previous posts.

PLEX, and how it is introduced to the game, is ingenius and unconventional.
It takesmsome adjusting and thinking to understand how that happens.
Take a few minutes for yourself to ponder upon it, and understand it.

Zihao wrote:


10x1 = 10
1x10 = 10

Hope that helps.


Doesnt help at all.

10 players cannot buy 1 PLEX.
1 player buys 1 PLEX.
The remaining 9 did NOT buy a PLEX.

Your math is absolutely ********.

You are either being obtuse or are genuinely lacking in certain mental faculties. If you are being obtuse I suggest you knock it off as you are only giving the impression that you are in fact a little slow so anything else you say carries less weight. In the original post there was an implied '10 people buying 1 plex EACH'.

Now I understand if English perhaps isn't your first languages (It isn't mine) but continuing to play the 'that's not what you said' or 'your math doesn't make sense you are stuuuupid' cards only makes YOU look the fool and makes no one take you seriously. Grow up.

A guide (Google Doc) to Hi-Sec blitzing and breaking the 200mill ISK/H barrier v1.2.3

Deck Cadelanne
CAStabouts
#176 - 2015-09-11 09:55:05 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
At the end of the day, I think CCP are going to be confronted with the necessity of lowering their price point. It may seem counter-intuitive, but they're better off with 15 customers paying $10 each than they are with 10 customers paying $15 each. And not just a bit better - a lot better off.


Gut feel: that would not attract new players (the barriers to entry in-game are what stops that) but maybe it brings back some veterans.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn professional."

- Hunter S. Thompson

Kairos Antilles
Doomheim
#177 - 2015-09-11 11:51:24 UTC
Anize Oramara wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Desslok VonReich wrote:

As the ISK value of PLEX rises, I am more and more likely to purchase a PLEX for resale. I assume I am not alone in that.

Your ingame purchase of PLEX for resale is immaterial to the prevalence of PLEX.

The point of issue, is the quantity of introduction of PLEX into EVE.

You are merely reselling that which was already paid for.

EVE is a microcosm, a micronation, in which the means of existance for many players/accounts in it, is introduced from OUTSIDE its economy, into it.

Its like living in an aquarium. Somebody BUYS the food some fish need to live from OUTSIDE with real money, and drops it into the tank, for dependant fish to buy with fishmoney, so as to eat it and live another month. When that supply dwindles, costs go up, and dependant fish start dying from starvation.

Furthermore, as other have also pointed out, thr higher the isk value of PLEX, the less RLM PLEX purchases will occur (because buyers rationally only buy as much as they need), and the less PLEX will be introduced to the system. PLEX has gone up 20-25% in the last year, other commodities have (thankfully) not.

This is the central concept I have tried to elaborate on in my previous posts.

PLEX, and how it is introduced to the game, is ingenius and unconventional.
It takesmsome adjusting and thinking to understand how that happens.
Take a few minutes for yourself to ponder upon it, and understand it.

Zihao wrote:


10x1 = 10
1x10 = 10

Hope that helps.


Doesnt help at all.

10 players cannot buy 1 PLEX.
1 player buys 1 PLEX.
The remaining 9 did NOT buy a PLEX.

Your math is absolutely ********.

You are either being obtuse or are genuinely lacking in certain mental faculties. If you are being obtuse I suggest you knock it off as you are only giving the impression that you are in fact a little slow so anything else you say carries less weight. In the original post there was an implied '10 people buying 1 plex EACH'.

Now I understand if English perhaps isn't your first languages (It isn't mine) but continuing to play the 'that's not what you said' or 'your math doesn't make sense you are stuuuupid' cards only makes YOU look the fool and makes no one take you seriously. Grow up.


Guess we have to spell out unit of issue (each) to be sure there's no room for ambiguity. Roll
Kairos Antilles
Doomheim
#178 - 2015-09-11 11:54:14 UTC
Deck Cadelanne wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
At the end of the day, I think CCP are going to be confronted with the necessity of lowering their price point. It may seem counter-intuitive, but they're better off with 15 customers paying $10 each than they are with 10 customers paying $15 each. And not just a bit better - a lot better off.


Gut feel: that would not attract new players (the barriers to entry in-game are what stops that) but maybe it brings back some veterans.


Whenever I talk to friends and coworkers about joining our little sandbox, the first question is "Is there a subscription?", followed by "How much?"

They are intrigued by the concept of PLEXing an account, but the initial $15/month seems to be a turn off.

Take that FWIW...
Anne Dieu-le-veut
Natl Assn for the Advancement of Criminal People
#179 - 2015-09-11 12:19:08 UTC
Kairos Antilles wrote:
Whenever I talk to friends and coworkers about joining our little sandbox, the first question is "Is there a subscription?", followed by "How much?"

They are intrigued by the concept of PLEXing an account, but the initial $15/month seems to be a turn off.

Take that FWIW...


Still not worried about losing people too cheap to pay $15 a month, much less a one time $15.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#180 - 2015-09-11 12:37:27 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
My point, as was that of many other posters here, is that as PLEX prices rise, people will buy less of it with real money, because they only buy as much as their isk needs are.
Just FYI, but this myth was debunked in an interview by one of the major ETC resellers, who saw no such correlation between PLEX prices and sold units. I imagine this comes down to one of two things:
1. Buyers aren't constrained by how much isk they need, only by how much excess cas they have, so an increase in isk price of PLEX just means they get more for the same amount of money.

2. As the PLEX price increases, more people who previously thought that the isk price of PLEX was not worth their real life cash start to see it as a better deal. I imagine far more people feel that paying $15 for 1.1b is a good deal compared to the number of players who feel $15 for 500m is a good deal.

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