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Decryptors going a bit haywire

Author
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#1 - 2015-08-11 00:41:16 UTC
It's no secret that I've been stocking up on some decryptors, which I feel are priced below any sustainable long-term price. Demand has been met by explorers producing them as by-products of hunting for other exploration loot, and a lot of people have been inventing without using decryptors without realising that their invention, while profitable, was suboptimal.

Consequentially there was little to no speculative demand - only end user demand - for decryptors, and that end user demand was not overly high. This is presently changing.

The Morphite, Zydrine and Megacyte price shock has shaken things up, and people who were inefficiently inventing without decryptors seem to have reassessed and optimized their production processes. Anecdotally I've seen decryptor sell orders I never expected to sell get sold in amounts that indicated end user demand (30 here, 50 there), as well as to speculators (buyups of many hundreds of units, followed by an immediate relisting).

Additionally Entosis Link II has been a factor. Due to low invention costs coupled with high production costs and the 10 run baseline, EL2s can *only* ever profitable to build with a decryptor providing ME 3. I did a massive buyup (almost 10k units) of Process Decryptors on this basis some while ago and have been slowly reselling them at 3-4 times the prices I paid.

Recently for some decryptor types (Accelerant, Process, Parity and Symmetry) there's been multiple big buyups of every unit on the market in several regions. It looks like a couple of other people have drawn the same conclusion as me - that decryptors have been selling at an unsustainably low price for a long period of time, and that they have turned the corner. Some of these people have even bought out my overpriced sell orders.

To confuse things I've engineered a few transactions to mess with regional averages (selling myself decryptors for a thousand times fair market price) and have been carrying out some of my own buyup/relist operations when the market conditions have suited it.

Enjoy the chaos, and try to make some ISK out of it. I feel I am well positioned to.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#2 - 2015-08-11 01:03:38 UTC
Mmmm, process decryptors have been a favorite of mine for a while now...
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#3 - 2015-08-11 01:10:42 UTC
Koniforous wrote:
Mmmm, process decryptors have been a favorite of mine for a while now...


Yep. I'm in no hurry to cash out of those. If Entosis Link II remains commonly used and commonly destroyed Process could hit 2 million per unit. If EL2 falls off in popularity (which I think is more likely) I still see it holding high six figures.

Paid 4.5b for 12000 units, and sold around 2.5k of them for 2b total, so not complaining.

Would have bought more but there were no more blocking orders on the market at the time except in Rens and Hek and could not be bothered flying there.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Ioci
Bad Girl Posse
Somethin Awfull Forums
#4 - 2015-08-11 09:50:00 UTC
Mine are all in some back water Verge Vendor system where I had great plans to invent stuffs. I'm too lazy to move them, they can stay there.

R.I.P. Vile Rat

Yawning Angel7
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#5 - 2015-08-11 16:22:46 UTC
I've got a few characters running T2 production, with a heavy reliance on Augmentation Decryptors. (Why build one rig when you can build ten instead?) Smile

I go through about 600 Augmentation Decryptors a week and over the last two(ish) months they've gone from 350,000 isk up to about 800,000+ isk each. That's an extra 1 billion isk per month - Ouch.

I've started doing ME/TE research on some module and ship BPOs so I can pivot to T1 production if decryptors start getting too expensive (especially those that increase the runs on a T2 BPC).

Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
The Morphite, Zydrine and Megacyte price shock has shaken things up, and people who were inefficiently inventing without decryptors seem to have reassessed and optimized their production processes ... Additionally Entosis Link II has been a factor.


These reasons sound good to me. Another small piece of the puzzle might be in this post from three weeks ago: Making isk from T2 invention and manufacturing. In it the OP spells out how to use decryptors to pump out T2 rigs just like I've been doing (FML Blink)

One small consolation for me is that a decent chunk of the isk from these price rises will end up in the pockets of newbro explorers (... and apparently station trading gankers like the OP!)
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#6 - 2015-08-12 00:17:33 UTC
Heh I missed that post, it explains Augmentation increasing (which was puzzling me as Augmentation is a very niche decryptor, useful only for things where the ME is unimportant and the base output is 1 run; and most base output 1 run products are ships where ME is critical).

I shift my decryptor usage based on market conditions - when Symmetry was 150-180k I was using them on almost all modules but now that they are up a bit I don't use them on <1m modules. I still use them on frigates. Accelerant and Parity are used for most destroyer-sized ships, Process for any BPCs that cost a lot to build (Command Ships, Entosis Links, Marauders). I don't try to optimize decryptor choice all the time but just have rules of thumb in mind.


I still think Process could hit seven figures.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Allison A'vani
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2015-08-13 19:16:01 UTC
As long as this keeps Entosis 2 link prices high, *shrug* have fun.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#8 - 2015-08-13 21:36:49 UTC
Allison A'vani wrote:
As long as this keeps Entosis 2 link prices high, *shrug* have fun.


Invention costs are a pretty tiny part of the EL2 cost, because the BPCs default to 10 runs. Even if Process hit 2 million, the cost per invention attempt will be only 2.5m and that will on average produce 4 runs (so 625k of the cost per unit comes down to invention).

The EL2 costs are driven by the materials used which are extensive.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com