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Sold out of Morphite, it's above any plausible new equilibrium price

Author
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#1 - 2015-07-07 12:55:29 UTC
The half million units I purchased in response to the nullsec ore rebalance is now either sold or used; I wish I'd borrowed ISK to buy another two million units but I wasn't confident enough in my assessment of future trends. Ah well, still made 4b.

The days of 6k/unit are forever over, but there is no fundamental reason why supply cannot increase now to bring a new equilibrium price closer to 9-9.5k.

Expect a slow fall to that point, although the price might go higher in the immediate term.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#2 - 2015-07-11 12:30:03 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/1205/Bloodtear_Industy_Index_Report_v3.pdf
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=418719

Quote:
Small:

  • Dongers ☜༼ຈل͜ຈ☜༽

  • Medium:

  • Mercoxit: 2600

  • Large:

  • Mercoxit: 3500

  • Enormous:

  • Mercoxit: 5200

  • Colossal:

  • Mercoxit: 7000

  • Fundamental reason. Blink

    Correct me if I'm wrong.
    Do Little
    Bluenose Trading
    #3 - 2015-07-11 15:42:37 UTC
    Supply of Morphite, or any mineral in Eve, is only limited by player willingness to harvest it - availability of the resource is essentially unlimited and the cost of production is constant. Rising prices should both encourage production and discourage consumption - leading to an oversupply and price correction. As to when this will happen or what the new balance point will be - my crystal ball is cloudy today. Fortunately it is a minor component in the stuff I make so the price spike hasn't been too painful.
    Vincent Athena
    Photosynth
    #4 - 2015-07-11 16:43:12 UTC
    Its also limited by time. It takes time to mine out a null sec anomaly, so you can get another to spawn. The amount of ore is limited to what spawns. Once you mine all the Mercoxit from an anom, you need to grind through all the other ores before you can get to more Mercoxit.

    Result: Supply is determined by the makeup of anomalies, not by what miners want to mine, or the market. (Actually, miners and the market do have some say. There are the standard belts, and the miners can choose what type of anom to have spawn, somewhat. But the makeup of anoms is still a big driver.))

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    Frozen fanfiction

    GankYou
    9B30FF Labs
    #5 - 2015-07-12 11:17:28 UTC
    Do Little wrote:
    Supply of Morphite, or any mineral in Eve, is only limited by player willingness to harvest it


    That is a logical fallacy, as Vincent has mentioned - Time. Demand follows the same time.
    joyous the
    Slippery Penguin
    #6 - 2015-07-13 03:54:48 UTC
    Do Little wrote:
    Supply of Morphite, or any mineral in Eve, is only limited by player willingness to harvest it - availability of the resource is essentially unlimited and the cost of production is constant. Rising prices should both encourage production and discourage consumption - leading to an oversupply and price correction. As to when this will happen or what the new balance point will be - my crystal ball is cloudy today. Fortunately it is a minor component in the stuff I make so the price spike hasn't been too painful.


    if the limitation is only the willingness to harvest, which it's not. Go back to hauling for people making money.
    Tau Cabalander
    Retirement Retreat
    Working Stiffs
    #7 - 2015-07-13 06:49:40 UTC
    Morphite is used in such small amounts that demand is easily met.

    It previously wasn't worth harvesting, and requires specialized equipment, so any change in demand or speculation can easily disrupt its market. I'd definitely wait-and-see on this one.

    The most common mistake with valuing Morphite / Mercoxit is not taking into account that it cannot be harvested with the same yield as any of the other ores. To normalize the price of Mercoxit per m3, multiply by 0.546

    If Cerlestes site is current, Mercoxit is currently worth 517.05 m3 (adjusted) just above Crokite. That's a significant rise, but time will tell where it settles.

    I've got a huge pile of it after adding too many zeros to the quantity on a buy order years ago. I've been using from the same pile ever since.