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Missile TC/TE - Stoicfaux's Scurrilously Speculative Spreadsheet

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afkalt
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#21 - 2015-06-08 14:11:35 UTC
Well that many ships and you start wanting dedicated painters to allow you to boost the buffer of the DPS ships.

Plus there's the whole....fleet/missiles/LOL thing going on.
stoicfaux
#22 - 2015-06-08 15:14:38 UTC
The conundrums I see (and as seen by others in this thread:)

a) TDs will affect MGCs (and MGEs?). Will that make TDs the new ECM? And it would be "omni" ECM without the hassle of having to pick/guess/refit the flavor of racial ECM to use.

b) Avoiding stacking penalties. TPs and MGC/MGEs (and webs as well) affect the missile damage formula in mostly the same way, but since they don't stack with other, the multipliers can potentially be insane. (E.g. CCP wasn't amused with Dreads and Titans blapping sub-caps, IIRC.)

c) Ships with lots of mids or (mids + lows) can potentially benefit greatly from the reduced stacking penalties, e.g. a Typhoon with a mix of TPs/MGCs/MGEs could potentially apply missile damage as effectively as a 4 Bonused TP Golem.
Balancing ships with a plethora of mids/lows versus ships with limited mids/lows can potentially be difficult. If you nerf missiles to keep the Typhoon under control, then you potentially screw over missile frigates and cruisers that have fewer slots.

d) However, if you nerf the missile bonuses on larger hulls (those with more slots) then you are making the use of a certain amount of MGC/MGE modules "mandatory" to get back up to par (which is a net negative.) Plus, "mandatory" fitting of a MGC/MGE forces you to be vulnerable to TDs.

e) How do you balance Solo versus Fleet work?
Solo folks are most likely to use whichever module provides the best bonus. Probably not an issue.

Fleets, however, would probably benefit from having bonused TP (and/or web) hulls (e.g. Hyena, Rapier, (and Loki)) working with MGC/MGE equipped missile ships.

* Do players want to be "forced" into that kind of fleet management? Is the EVE GUI adequate (i.e. provides enough ease and/or information) for FCs to coordinate fleet TP usage? Meaning, the GUI got a few tweaks to make managing Logistics targets easier, is something equivalent necessary for TPs?

* Are TP hull bonuses now too powerful? What about ranged Web bonuses? I.e. are there unintended consequences or synergies that will need be balanced?

f) TPs are affected by skills. MGCs/MGEs probably won't be. It's a 14-20+ day slog with optimized attributes and/or implants to get Signature Focusing to V to maximize the TP bonus. Do you balance MGC/MGE values against "All Skills V" TPs?

g) Faster Missiles. The Mordu's Legion ships' 200% missile velocity bonus has put a bit of a dint in the "missiles are bad because of Delayed Damage" argument. Is CCP's goal to encourage faster missiles to encourage greater use? If CCP is too focused on missile velocity, then they may overlook edge cases (i.e. abuse) involving battleship or capital missiles clobbering small ships.

h) Short range missiles reaching out to long ranges. The risk here is that certain hulls (those with lots of mids/lows) could make long range missiles "obsolete." A Raven with its 50% missile velocity bonus and seven mids could possibly do something edge-case-y with torpedoes, i.e. are we creating a new "Sentry Ishtar" but with missiles situation?

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

Lloyd Roses
Artificial Memories
#23 - 2015-06-08 15:51:34 UTC
The synergy with TPs and missiles is similar to that of TP and artillery or sentries for example. Those two ramp up with already negligible tracking issues at common engagement ranges and swing right through to *all damage instantly* territory, while missiles at best would come very close at the cost of delayed damage, wasted volleys and potentially more matching damage on the upside.

For cases like precision or navy cruises against HACs, with 2 webs, 2 paints on a primary it's going to take a lot of that damage already, I doubt that gap will change a lot. For large scales, I doubt that even the fastest missile doctrine could really compete well against turret fleets.
afkalt
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#24 - 2015-06-08 15:54:58 UTC  |  Edited by: afkalt
Lloyd Roses wrote:
For large scales, I doubt that even the fastest missile doctrine could really compete well against turret fleets.


Not least because effective target swapping to annoy logi isn't remotely effective...borderline impossible really.

Even at 10km/s at 100km you've a full 10 seconds to broadcast before the first rounds even hit.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#25 - 2015-06-08 16:21:03 UTC
afkalt wrote:
Lloyd Roses wrote:
For large scales, I doubt that even the fastest missile doctrine could really compete well against turret fleets.


Not least because effective target swapping to annoy logi isn't remotely effective...borderline impossible really.

Even at 10km/s at 100km you've a full 10 seconds to broadcast before the first rounds even hit.


Also firewalls.
Stitch Kaneland
The Tuskers
The Tuskers Co.
#26 - 2015-06-08 16:55:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Stitch Kaneland
baltec1 wrote:
afkalt wrote:
Lloyd Roses wrote:
For large scales, I doubt that even the fastest missile doctrine could really compete well against turret fleets.


Not least because effective target swapping to annoy logi isn't remotely effective...borderline impossible really.

Even at 10km/s at 100km you've a full 10 seconds to broadcast before the first rounds even hit.


Also firewalls.


This. Kind of nullifies a missile doctrine when you can firewall 70-100% of the enemy fleets dps. To counter this... MJD to get around the firewall (unless set up encircling the fleet, or if every ship has SB). But still a lot of hassle that turret ships have no problems with.
stoicfaux
#27 - 2015-06-10 18:59:06 UTC  |  Edited by: stoicfaux
Stitch Kaneland wrote:
This. Kind of nullifies a missile doctrine when you can firewall 70-100% of the enemy fleets dps. To counter this... MJD to get around the firewall (unless set up encircling the fleet, or if every ship has SB). But still a lot of hassle that turret ships have no problems with.

Yes, but... firewalls were a thing before the missile speed buff, no? Add in the Mordu's Legion missile velocity bonus, and you just might have missiles that can "skip" over the firewalling ships due to the EVE servers' 1 second tick.

A large smartbomb has a 12km diameter. Light, Heavy and Cruise missiles on Mordu's Legion ships with their 200% missile velocity bonus have a speed of 16.9km/s 19.4 km/s and 21.1 19.4 km/s respectively. Has anyone tested whether the server will check whether the smartbomb will "intercept" missiles (which would be calculation heavy, i.e. TiDi unfriendly) or whether the server just "skips" the missiles from point A to point B every second? (Skipping would mean that the missile could effectively "hop" over the 12k smartbomb area and not be destroyed.)

If these fast missiles do skip, and since the Mordu's Legion ships haven't crashed the server, modules that buff missile speed combined with potentially retro-fitting the Mordu fast missile bonus to other hulls could be an interesting option for CCP's missile pass.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#28 - 2015-06-10 20:32:24 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:

Yes, but... firewalls were a thing before the missile speed buff, no?


Firewalls were a bigger reason for the retirement of drakefleets than the nerfs to the hull.
Haatakan Reppola
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#29 - 2015-06-10 20:55:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Haatakan Reppola
stoicfaux wrote:

Yes, but... firewalls were a thing before the missile speed buff, no?


Before and after, if missiles ships are used in large scale and the other side have time to get/field firewall ships you can put money on it beeing used Blink

stoicfaux wrote:

A large smartbomb has a 12km diameter. Light, Heavy and Cruise missiles on Mordu's Legion ships with their 200% missile velocity bonus have a speed of 16.9km/s 19.4 km/s and 21.1km/s respectively.


With 19.4km/s speed and 12km smartbomb range you have around 60% chance for missiles to be registered within smartbomb range while passing (not counting if the smartbomb is active that tick or not.
For 16.9km/s the chance is 71%, again not accounting for taking dmg but only "stopping" within smartbomb range for the server tick it passes. This is for 200% velocity bonused missiles, normal missiles are almost guaranteed to be withing smartbomb range atleast 1 server tick when passing
stoicfaux
#30 - 2015-06-10 21:58:02 UTC  |  Edited by: stoicfaux
Haatakan Reppola wrote:

With 19.4km/s speed and 12km smartbomb range you have around 60% chance for missiles to be registered within smartbomb range while passing (not counting if the smartbomb is active that tick or not.
For 16.9km/s the chance is 71%, again not accounting for taking dmg but only "stopping" within smartbomb range for the server tick it passes. This is for 200% velocity bonused missiles, normal missiles are almost guaranteed to be withing smartbomb range atleast 1 server tick when passing

That's two one dimensional thinking, i.e. the worst case scenario where the missile launcher, the firewall ship, and the target are on the same plane line.

If we go 3D, then:
volume of 19.4km sphere = 3,823km3
volume of 12.0km sphere = 905km3
Which gives a (3,823 - 905) / (3,823) = 76% chance of the missile getting through in the random angle case.


With 3xmissile velocity rigs (substituting for the MGC/MGE for now,) we're looking at 29.8km/s for cruise/heavy missiles on a Mordu ship.
2D worst case: 40% chance to block.
3D best case: (13,856.3 - 905) / 13,856.3 = 93% chance to get through.

Obviously, the "realistic" case would be somewhere in between. Someone better at maths could probably compute a probability chart based on how far "off plane" the firewall ship is.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

Arla Sarain
#31 - 2015-06-10 22:39:40 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Haatakan Reppola wrote:

With 19.4km/s speed and 12km smartbomb range you have around 60% chance for missiles to be registered within smartbomb range while passing (not counting if the smartbomb is active that tick or not.
For 16.9km/s the chance is 71%, again not accounting for taking dmg but only "stopping" within smartbomb range for the server tick it passes. This is for 200% velocity bonused missiles, normal missiles are almost guaranteed to be withing smartbomb range atleast 1 server tick when passing

That's two one dimensional thinking, i.e. the worst case scenario where the missile launcher, the firewall ship, and the target are on the same plane line.

If we go 3D, then:
volume of 19.4km sphere = 3,823km3
volume of 12.0km sphere = 905km3
Which gives a (3,823 - 905) / (3,823) = 76% chance of the missile getting through in the random angle case.


With 3xmissile velocity rigs (substituting for the MGC/MGE for now,) we're looking at 29.8km/s for cruise/heavy missiles on a Mordu ship.
2D worst case: 40% chance to block.
3D best case: (13,856.3 - 905) / 13,856.3 = 93% chance to get through.

Obviously, the "realistic" case would be somewhere in between. Someone better at maths could probably compute a probability chart based on how far "off plane" the firewall ship is.

Not sure why either of you are comparing distance measure to speed. Also smartbomb damage is instantaneous and not continuous, which I don't see how it relates to the transient missile position.

Also, highest chance to SB a missile is when it passes through the centerline of the SB sphere, which is what your optimal 12km smartbomb assumes. This would happen if the missile was direct at the smartbomber, or the less likely occasion when the SBer is on a direct path between the assailant and the victim, which is really hard to pull off.

I don't think approaching this from a statistical POV is reasonable - switch on goddamn missile trails and tactical overlay, hover over the smartbomb icon, and twitch the s*** out of that missile as if you're playing CS 1.6 for the millionth time.
Haatakan Reppola
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#32 - 2015-06-11 04:21:07 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Haatakan Reppola wrote:

With 19.4km/s speed and 12km smartbomb range you have around 60% chance for missiles to be registered within smartbomb range while passing (not counting if the smartbomb is active that tick or not.
For 16.9km/s the chance is 71%, again not accounting for taking dmg but only "stopping" within smartbomb range for the server tick it passes. This is for 200% velocity bonused missiles, normal missiles are almost guaranteed to be withing smartbomb range atleast 1 server tick when passing

That's two one dimensional thinking, i.e. the worst case scenario where the missile launcher, the firewall ship, and the target are on the same plane line.

If we go 3D, then:
volume of 19.4km sphere = 3,823km3
volume of 12.0km sphere = 905km3
Which gives a (3,823 - 905) / (3,823) = 76% chance of the missile getting through in the random angle case.


With 3xmissile velocity rigs (substituting for the MGC/MGE for now,) we're looking at 29.8km/s for cruise/heavy missiles on a Mordu ship.
2D worst case: 40% chance to block.
3D best case: (13,856.3 - 905) / 13,856.3 = 93% chance to get through.

Obviously, the "realistic" case would be somewhere in between. Someone better at maths could probably compute a probability chart based on how far "off plane" the firewall ship is.


Its no more assumptions than this whole thread is based on, but yes it assumes the smartbomb is in direct missile path so the missile have to travel the whole distance. Lets just call it worst case scenario or that the firewaller is good at what he does and that missile location is only updated every tick. Worst case scenario firewalling against best case scenario missile speed (not taking into account when a SB actualy pulse its dmg)
Chainsaw Plankton
FaDoyToy
#33 - 2015-06-11 05:35:57 UTC
Arla Sarain wrote:
I don't think approaching this from a statistical POV is reasonable - switch on goddamn missile trails and tactical overlay, hover over the smartbomb icon, and twitch the s*** out of that missile as if you're playing CS 1.6 for the millionth time.


I'm not sure missile animations and missile positions are exactly the same thing. I remember seeing somewhere that the graphics approximate the position. and I think the faster the missile, the more that breaks. It was incredibly annoying the last time I tried to use a missile boat. just another reason I don't use missiles.

@ChainsawPlankto on twitter

Haatakan Reppola
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#34 - 2015-06-11 06:12:47 UTC
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
Arla Sarain wrote:
I don't think approaching this from a statistical POV is reasonable - switch on goddamn missile trails and tactical overlay, hover over the smartbomb icon, and twitch the s*** out of that missile as if you're playing CS 1.6 for the millionth time.


I'm not sure missile animations and missile positions are exactly the same thing. I remember seeing somewhere that the graphics approximate the position. and I think the faster the missile, the more that breaks. It was incredibly annoying the last time I tried to use a missile boat. just another reason I don't use missiles.


If you are firewalling a missile fleet, you dont sit still waiting for that 1 volley of missiles to pass your SB range, you cycle several smartbombs and hope/assume they kill some of the missiles as they pass. There is no situation that a fleet of missile ships will have all its missiles in the same location at the same time :P
Sobaan Tali
Caldari Quick Reaction Force
#35 - 2015-06-11 06:20:02 UTC
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
Arla Sarain wrote:
I don't think approaching this from a statistical POV is reasonable - switch on goddamn missile trails and tactical overlay, hover over the smartbomb icon, and twitch the s*** out of that missile as if you're playing CS 1.6 for the millionth time.


I'm not sure missile animations and missile positions are exactly the same thing. I remember seeing somewhere that the graphics approximate the position. and I think the faster the missile, the more that breaks. It was incredibly annoying the last time I tried to use a missile boat. just another reason I don't use missiles.


It is an approximate, that's without a doubt in my mind. I've run a Golem in PVE for far too long to have never noticed how much sooner damage is applied to a target long before the missiles visually strike the target. Hell, at close enough ranges, damage gets a hit reg before the missiles fully transition from the initial "stage one firing animation" where they will slowly rise up/down above/below the launchers at partial velocity briefly before shooting off at full velocity towards the target. I myself have gotten kind of used to it somewhat, but I can see where this would frustrate anyone in that regard.

"Tomahawks?"

"----in' A, right?"

"Trouble is, those things cost like a million and a half each."

"----, you pay me half that and I'll hump in some c4 and blow the ---- out of it my own damn self."

Lloyd Roses
Artificial Memories
#36 - 2015-06-11 10:52:35 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Stitch Kaneland wrote:
This. Kind of nullifies a missile doctrine when you can firewall 70-100% of the enemy fleets dps. To counter this... MJD to get around the firewall (unless set up encircling the fleet, or if every ship has SB). But still a lot of hassle that turret ships have no problems with.

Yes, but... firewalls were a thing before the missile speed buff, no? Add in the Mordu's Legion missile velocity bonus, and you just might have missiles that can "skip" over the firewalling ships due to the EVE servers' 1 second tick.

A large smartbomb has a 12km diameter. Light, Heavy and Cruise missiles on Mordu's Legion ships with their 200% missile velocity bonus have a speed of 16.9km/s 19.4 km/s and 21.1 19.4 km/s respectively. Has anyone tested whether the server will check whether the smartbomb will "intercept" missiles (which would be calculation heavy, i.e. TiDi unfriendly) or whether the server just "skips" the missiles from point A to point B every second? (Skipping would mean that the missile could effectively "hop" over the 12k smartbomb area and not be destroyed.)

If these fast missiles do skip, and since the Mordu's Legion ships haven't crashed the server, modules that buff missile speed combined with potentially retro-fitting the Mordu fast missile bonus to other hulls could be an interesting option for CCP's missile pass.


When you're decloaking something with a sabre (and got links huehue) and going more than around 4km/s, you end up burning straight through the supposed victim without decloaking it. Guess missiles should do the same, flying past smartbombs.
afkalt
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#37 - 2015-06-11 11:38:41 UTC
Sobaan Tali wrote:
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
Arla Sarain wrote:
I don't think approaching this from a statistical POV is reasonable - switch on goddamn missile trails and tactical overlay, hover over the smartbomb icon, and twitch the s*** out of that missile as if you're playing CS 1.6 for the millionth time.


I'm not sure missile animations and missile positions are exactly the same thing. I remember seeing somewhere that the graphics approximate the position. and I think the faster the missile, the more that breaks. It was incredibly annoying the last time I tried to use a missile boat. just another reason I don't use missiles.


It is an approximate, that's without a doubt in my mind. I've run a Golem in PVE for far too long to have never noticed how much sooner damage is applied to a target long before the missiles visually strike the target. Hell, at close enough ranges, damage gets a hit reg before the missiles fully transition from the initial "stage one firing animation" where they will slowly rise up/down above/below the launchers at partial velocity briefly before shooting off at full velocity towards the target. I myself have gotten kind of used to it somewhat, but I can see where this would frustrate anyone in that regard.



Yeah, ships assplode before you even see a contrail animation.

In fact it's quite easy to measure if you're watching the target because no matter the range, the last volley never visually "hits". Ho close it gets is the only variable.
Zekora Rally
Negative Density
D3nse Matter
#38 - 2015-06-11 19:52:01 UTC
Wouldn't explosion velocity be a more desirable attribute to improve instead of explosion radius? Target painters already help with the latter but the other is much harder to control without webs.
stoicfaux
#39 - 2015-06-11 20:20:05 UTC
Zekora Rally wrote:
Wouldn't explosion velocity be a more desirable attribute to improve instead of explosion radius? Target painters already help with the latter but the other is much harder to control without webs.

Short Answer:
No.

Long Answer:
Missile explosion velocity, missile explosion radius, target sig size and target velocity are essentially identical in terms of their effect on the 2nd part of the missile damage formula. http://wiki.eveuniversity.org/Missile_Damage

To put it simply, a 15% rigor provides a (1 / .85) = 1.176 modifier to the 2nd missile formula. A 15% flare rig provides a (1 + .15) = 1.15 modifier, a hypothetical 15% TP would provide a ( 1 + .15) = 1.15 modifier, and a hypothetical 15% web would provide a (1 / .85) = 1.176 modifier.

The main distinction is that explosion radius and target sig size affect the first part of the missile formula (S / E), however that's not normally important since the second part of the missile formula tends to overshadow the first part except in edge cases.

Rigors and webs affect the denominators of the missile formula so they're (1/x), whereas Flares and TPs affect the numerators so they're (1 + x).


Here's why a 15% Rigor actually provides a 1.176 bonus:

Start with:
  S   Ve
  - * --
  E   Vt

Now apply the 15% rigor
     S      Ve
  ------- * --
  E * .85   Vt

which is the same as:
   1    S   Ve
  --- * - * --
  .85   E   Vt

1 / .85 = 1.176. Because everything is multiplied together in the second missile formula, rigors, flares, webs, etc., are also multipliers. Fun note: a 60% web is the equivalent of a 60% Rigor (but only in the context of the 2nd part of the formula.)

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

Arla Sarain
#40 - 2015-06-11 20:55:52 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
snip

For completion, I'd like to add that there is a power. If the bracket ratio evaluates to 15% or 17.6% more than nominal, that does not translate into 15% or 17% more damage.

For a DRF of 2.8, the log ratio is 0.6.
1.176^0.6 = 1.1

Also the function output is subject to the minimum argument logic. In the event that your missile explosion speed is higher than target speed and hence dramatically increases the magnitude of the ratio, the second argument is likely to be the smallest of the 3 arguments.

Unfortunately, Rigors are still better in any case, because sig/missile radius contribute to both arguments.
The only other detail is the rate at which damage increases - should the second ratio be smallest of the 3 arguments, the damage per rig increases at 17.6%, if the 3 argument is smallest it increases at a rate of 10%.
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